Core Insights - Investors are closely monitoring a key inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, expected to show an increase in inflation [3] - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims falling to 218,000, below expectations, and GDP growth for Q3 at 3.8%, exceeding forecasts [3] - Federal Reserve officials are divided on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for significant reductions while others caution against aggressive easing due to persistent inflation [4] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1.4 basis points to 3.649%, the 10-year yield fell by 1 basis point to 4.164%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 1.1 basis points to 4.742% [1] - The PCE index is set to be released, which is a favored inflation measure by the Federal Reserve [3] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3% [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Perspectives - New Fed Governor Milan called for substantial rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points in upcoming meetings, totaling a 200 basis point cut [4] - Other Fed officials, including Bowman and Goolsbee, expressed concerns about the labor market's strength and inflation, advocating for more cautious rate adjustments [4] - The Chicago Fed President warned against significant rate cuts in the early stages of a new easing cycle due to inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [4] Group 3: Global Market Trends - The Swiss National Bank is prepared to lower rates further if necessary, with a high threshold for reintroducing negative rates [5] - European bond yields saw a general decline, with the 10-year German bond yield falling to 2.744% [5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year yield rising to 1.653% [7] Group 4: Debt Market Insights - The U.S. federal public debt reached $37.45 trillion as of September 24, with short-term bonds comprising about 20% of this debt [8] - The International Institute of Finance reported that global debt hit a record high of $337.7 trillion by the end of Q2, influenced by a relaxed financial environment and a weaker dollar [7]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美联储官员巴尔金表示，劳动力市场可能正在走弱，劳动力供给的增长速度也在放缓。近期降息应有助 于就业市场，同时继续对高于目标水平的通胀施加压力。 ...

降息后分歧加剧，鲍威尔重申风险管理！美政府停摆逼近，特朗普对乌口风骤变，抛出关税"连环炮"。阿里再获木头姐建仓，加密资产行情失速…本周你错 过哪些刺激行情？ 非美货币方面，受强美元走势影响，欧元、英镑、澳元、日元兑美元本周均整体录得下跌，其中欧元兑美元料将四周来首次收跌，英镑和澳元兑美元连续第 二周下跌，美元兑日元连续第二周上涨。 本周国际油价有望录得近三个月来最大单周涨幅，美布两油均一度涨超4%，主要受到乌克兰对俄罗斯能源基础设施袭击以及美国原油库存意外下降的双重 推动。此外，美国经济数据强于预期，以及伊拉克库尔德地区恢复石油出口的消息也对油价产生了一定影响。 风险资产方面，美股三大指数先涨后跌，周初再度创出历史新高，科技股尤其是苹果和英伟达领涨；但自周二起市场获利回吐压力加大，叠加宏观数据扰 动，三大指数连续回调。 加密货币本周大跌，以太坊在周四跌破4000美元/枚，正式开启技术熊市，较8月份的历史高点累计下跌超20%。比特币一度失守11万美元/枚。 投行观点分享 行情回顾 美元指数本周整体呈现"先弱后强"的格局，行情驱动主要来自对美联储降息预期的再定价和宏观数据的超预期表现。周初连续收跌主要因为投资者重 ...

Core Insights - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a moderate increase, with the overall PCE projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in August, while the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to increase by 0.2% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the year-over-year overall PCE inflation rate for August is expected to reach 2.7%, slightly up from 2.6% in the previous month, while the core PCE inflation rate is expected to remain stable at 2.9% [1][2] - Despite inflation being above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, Powell and other Fed officials are reassured that inflation has not surged unexpectedly due to increased tariffs [2] Inflation Monitoring - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the extent of price increases in goods and whether the recent rise in service costs is a temporary fluctuation [3][4] - Goods prices have been significantly impacted by tariffs, showing only a 0.5% increase over the past year, with expectations of price declines for most of 2023 and 2024 [4] - Service price growth, which had previously slowed, has recently rebounded in June and July, raising concerns among Fed officials [4] Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of strain, with a significant drop in new job creation, a gradual rise in unemployment rates, and an increase in the time it takes for individuals to find jobs [2] - The Fed implemented its first interest rate cut of the year, citing "weakness in the labor market" as a primary reason [2] Future Outlook - Most Federal Reserve officials believe that service costs will stabilize again, and they are looking for evidence of this in the upcoming August PCE report [5] - The PCE data is considered a critical economic indicator that will be closely watched by market participants [5]

一旦掌握這7個人生複利公式，你的人生將開始快速成長 https://youtu.be/Uz0awqTLJeA 會員頻道的內容會依照這7個公式，一步步陪你實踐 👉 加入會員頻道，從第1個公式開始實踐：https://bit.ly/goldenrich-members ☕️ 如果你想免費支持我們，這裡有個簡單的方法： 👉 https://bit.ly/GET-IBKR 🙏 點擊連結沒有任何費用，每次點擊都能幫助支持我們的頻道。IB盈透證券：全球領先、備受信賴的投資平台，交易覆蓋150個市場，低成本、資金靈活，是多元化投資的理想選擇！ (Disclosures: https://bit.ly/content-disclosure) 全球放水正式啟動！爆富門票已開搶，美聯儲降息，財富版圖全面洗牌！這是黃金十年開端，還是資產泡沫倒數？ 2025年9月18日，市場等了一整年，美聯儲終於鬆口，宣布降息25個基點，把聯邦基金利率調降到4.00%到4.25%。這是自2024年12月以來第一次政策轉向，也是2025年第一次降息。這一動作，正式宣告近三年的緊縮週期結束，也算是今年最大不確定性事件的落幕。真正的關鍵在後面，資產重估、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆★, similar to gold, a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tonight's PCE inflation data and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] Summary by Related Content US Economic Data - The US second - quarter GDP was significantly revised up to a 3.8% increase, the highest in two years, with the previous value at 3.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20th was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000 [1] Fed Officials' Speeches - Fed Governor Bowman believes that the focus should now shift to employment rather than inflation. This year's voting member, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, thinks the more the balance sheet shrinks, the better. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is a bit worried about excessive early rate cuts based on the slowdown in employment data and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked. San Francisco Fed President Daly also believes that it is too risky to completely shift to a neutral stance [2]

来源：智昇财论 据报道，有8家原油公司与伊拉克政府库尔德地区政府达成协议，库尔德地区的原油供应即将恢复，使 得供应过剩的担忧加剧。夏季需求高峰已经过去，OPEC+持续增产，供应增速超过全球原油需求增 速，不利于油价的上涨。 技术面：原油周二（9月23日）从62美元一线持续反弹，昨日最高触及65.38美元的位置，短线走势偏 强。日线表现为震荡下行，上方的空间或有限，65-66美元的阻力区域需密切留意，若不能上破则将继 续维持61.50-65美元区间宽幅震荡甚至转为下跌。日内下方关注64.68美元的多空分界线。 美元指数：昨日公布的数据显示，美国8月耐用品订单录得增长2.9%，大幅高于前值的下降2.7%，也好 于预期的下降0.5%；美国截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数录得21.8万人，前值为23.2万人，同样好于 预期。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，近期的数据显示美国就业市场的风险在上升，降息的选择是合适的，当 前美联储的政策略显限制性，未来的货币政策依然需要数据来做决策。 技术面：美元昨日延续涨势，从上周议息会议之后接连上涨，小时图表现为震荡上行，98的阻力位已经 突破，今天若是进一步上涨则可能冲破空头的最后一 ...

| 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 65826 | 192 | 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，政策利率已处于可应对通胀与就业风险的适当位置，并不急于大幅降息。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（9月26日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计65826千克，今日仓单较上 一日增加192千克。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周五（9月26日）黄金期货开盘价854.00元/克，截至目前最高859.04元/克，最 低850.74元/克。截止发稿报856.06元/克，涨幅0.01%，成交量为270430手，持仓为264305手，日持仓减 少2324手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 美联储理事米兰则支持一次性0.50%的降息，并指出若剔除临时关税效应，通胀已接近2%目标。受此影 响，市场对年内降息的押注下调至约33%。 近期乌克兰总统泽连斯基警告称，若不加以遏制，俄罗斯将继续加剧冲突规模与强度。 俄方的空袭频率与规模已显著增加，并扩展至白天时段。这种局势增加了市场对避险资产的需求，在一 定程度上限制了银价的下跌空间。 ...

前言 聊起美国经济，最近最绕不开的就是"利率怎么走"和"矛盾怎么解"这两件事，这是资本的本质，也是美 国社会的根基之一。 很多人盯着美联储的降息信号，但很少有人把背后白宫、央行、市场的拧巴劲儿说透。 其实现在美国经济的核心问题，早就不是"降多少息"，而是"政策方向能不能对齐"。 尤其是在就业数据这个敏感点上，美联储和白宫的角力，已经成了解开所有问题的第一道锁。 就业数据博弈 美联储主席鲍威尔最近的表态很明确：短期内美联储的重心从通胀转向了就业，言下之意就是"只要就 业数据冷下来，降息就有理由"。 这个逻辑本身没问题，毕竟美联储的双重使命就是控通胀、稳就业，但坏就坏在，美国的就业数据早已 不是单纯的经济指标，而是成了特朗普的"政治成绩单"。 此前美国大幅下修就业数据，特朗普对此震怒，随即解雇劳工统计局局长，任命自己的亲信EGAnthony 接任。 这位新局长上任后便公开表态，认为"月度就业报告可改为季度发布"。 尽管目前月度报告尚未正式调整，但政策风向已明确：特朗普绝不容忍"疲软就业数据"影响竞选支持 率，其任期内的就业数据必须"呈现向好态势"。 这一局面暗藏关键矛盾：若就业数据被"修饰"，原本低迷的数据被调整 ...

黄金方面： 美联储理事米兰表示，如果美联储没有迅速下调利率，可能会对经济造成伤害，他主张实施一系列的大幅降息，以尽快回到中 性水平。在上周的议息会议上倾向于降息50个基点，并呼吁接下来两次降息125个基点。 瑞银全球财富管理首席投资办公室预测，美联储在未来几个月将会进一步降息，到2026年第一季度累计降息幅度将达到75个基 点。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，从8月22日美联储主席鲍威尔暗示降息之后，随着经济数据的走弱，降息的押注 持续上升，有利于黄金上涨。 技术面：黄金周线月线多头趋势，后续进一步上涨的概率大。小时图来看，黄金近几日维持震荡，对比此前的上涨来看，回调 幅度有限，多头依然占据优势，上方若突破3760美元则可以看向3790美元的前高点一线，下周有望冲击3850美元。 原油方面： 昨日（9月25日）晚间，美国第二季度实际GDP年化终值录得3.8%，高于预期和前值的3.3%。表明美国经济仍具有较强的韧性， 对全球投资者的信心有提振效果。 铜方面： 铜价昨日未能延续涨势，冲高回落，最高触及4.86美元的位置，昨日晚间跌破了从4.74美元的关键支撑，短线或将进一步下行。 日内上方关注4.74 ...