Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of decline [1] - The month-on-month CPI turned negative, dropping by 0.2%, influenced primarily by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decline [3][7] - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetables seeing a 5.9% price drop, while some fresh fruits and fish experienced price increases due to supply constraints [7] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, the largest drop since August 2023, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [3] - The PPI decline was attributed to international input factors and domestic energy and raw material price decreases, with coal and steel industries facing overcapacity and intense competition [5][6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline was exacerbated by a high comparison base from the previous year, leading to a 0.6 percentage point increase in the decline rate [5] Group 3: Market Insights - The overall consumer market remains weak, with durable goods facing intense competition and limited price increases, while service consumption is recovering slowly [6] - Despite the challenges, there are signs of recovery in certain sectors, with core CPI rising by 0.6% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for specific consumer goods [8] - Future CPI trends are expected to stabilize and gradually rise, supported by seasonal agricultural production and ongoing government policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][9] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To promote reasonable price recovery, it is essential to implement comprehensive measures, including enhancing consumer policies and improving social security systems [9] - The focus should be on stimulating demand in durable goods and service sectors, while also addressing income levels through industrial upgrades and job creation [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The PPI may experience a slow recovery, influenced by global economic uncertainties and domestic structural adjustments, with high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors driving demand [12] - The resolution of overcapacity issues will take time, and the pace of PPI recovery may be gradual, affected by various external and internal factors [12]

近几个月CPI的走势说明，国内由市场引导的供求总量失衡态 势仍在发展中。这种现象会进一步弱化企业预期、打击企业信 心，进而使居民消费活动向更谨慎的态势发展，为此要高度重 视并尽快扭转此态势。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 6月9日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，2025年5月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%， CPI同比增速已连续四个月出现负增长 。1—5月平 均，CPI比上年同期下降0.1%。 具体来看，5月蔬菜价格同比降幅由上月的-5.0%扩大到-8.3%，猪肉价格同比涨幅也出现回落。此外，受5月上旬国际原油价格走低影响，当月国内成 品油价格下调，能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点，是导致5月CPI同比下降的主要因素。 5月CPI数据发布当天，东方金诚宏观研究发展部发布的报告提出，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格，更能反映基本物价水平的核心CPI同比持续处于 1.0%以下的低位，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，其中 消费需求不足是主要原因。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示，近几个月CPI的走势说明，国内由市场引导的供求总量失衡态 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight acceleration from the previous month [1][2] - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI decline, with energy prices dropping by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease [2] - The CPI has maintained a year-on-year decline of -0.1% for three consecutive months, reflecting weak overall price levels, while core CPI remains above 0.5%, suggesting a gradual recovery in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies [1][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to international factors, such as falling crude oil prices, which have led to price decreases in related domestic industries, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, some sectors are showing marginal improvements, with prices for consumer goods and high-end manufacturing products experiencing upward trends, indicating a potential for gradual recovery in certain industries [5][6]

6月9日，国家统计局公布了5月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）数据。数据显示，5月CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%。随着我国促消费、扩内需 各项政策持续发力，价格呈现出积极变化，尤其是核心CPI同比涨幅升至近一年来的最高点。其中，能源价格的下降成为拖累CPI下行的主要因 素，而金饰品、宾馆住宿等领域价格的上涨，则彰显出消费市场别样的活力。 能源价格下行拖累CPI表现 自3月起，CPI已连续3个月同比降幅为0.1%。从环比数据来看，5月CPI由涨转降。据国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，能源价格是拖累 CPI同比和环比表现的关键因素。从同比数据看，5月份能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分 点；从环比数据看，能源价格下降1.7%，影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。 北京商报记者发现，在"五一"小长假期间，热门城市的经济型酒店价格从平日的200—300元/晚涨至500—800元/晚，高端酒店的涨幅更是超过一 倍；旅游价格环比上涨0.8%，带动了景区门票、餐饮等相关领域的联动升温。 此外，金饰品价格涨幅尤为显著，同比上涨40. ...

5月CPI数据发布当天，东方金诚宏观研究发展部发布的报告提出，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格，更能反映基本物价水平的核心CPI同比持续处于1.0%以 下的低位，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，其中消费需求不足是主要原因。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示，近几个月CPI的走势说明，国内由市场引导的供求总量失衡态势仍在发展中。这种现象会进一步弱 化企业预期、打击企业信心，进而使居民消费活动向更谨慎的态势发展，为此要高度重视并尽快扭转此态势。 启铼研究院首席经济学家潘向东表示，物价是经济活跃度的一个反映。近期物价下跌的核心原因是需求不旺和供给过剩。需求不旺与国内经济面临的内外部 环境密切相关，包括外部的国际贸易摩擦，以及内部的就业压力和财产性收入增长压力等。 6月9日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，2025年5月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，CPI同比增速已连续四个月出现负增长。1—5月平均，CPI 比上年同期下降0.1%。 具体来看，5月蔬菜价格同比降幅由上月的-5.0%扩大到-8.3%，猪肉价格同比涨幅也出现回落。此外，受5月上旬国际原油价格走低影响，当月国内成品油价 格下调，能源价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The actual resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to be slower than market expectations, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to start being released in late June. The processing fees for tin ore were further reduced at the beginning of June. - In the smelting sector, tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan are facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, with low raw material inventories. In Jiangxi, the scrap recycling system is under pressure, the risk of production capacity withdrawal has increased, and the operating rate remains at a low level. - On the demand side, due to the previous decline in tin prices and the reluctance of holders to sell, the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end - user enterprises has increased, leading to an obvious decline in social inventories. - Technically, the position reduction has rebounded from a low level, and attention should be paid to the resistance of MA60. Short - term investors are advised to go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,740 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the closing price of the July - August contract was 130 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. - The price of LME 3 - month tin was 32,255 US dollars/ton, down 105 US dollars. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 25,485 lots, down 492 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was 4,296 lots, up 104 lots. - The total inventory of LME tin was 2,440 tons, down 5 tons; the canceled warrants of LME tin were 630 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,372 tons (weekly), down 735 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,904 tons, down 116 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 263,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 263,630 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 50 US dollars/ton, up 59.1 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 252,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 256,400 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 171,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - International: In May, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000, exceeding the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Some Fed officials said that there may be an interest rate cut later this year, and the possibility of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%. - Domestic: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, indicating weak domestic demand. The wholesale volume of passenger cars by domestic manufacturers in May reached a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [3].

6月9日，国家统计局公布数据显示，5月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。工业生产者出厂价 格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 整 体来看，目前国内价格数据维持在低位运行，下半年需出台更多增量政策提振内需，其中财政扩张 支持内需仍然是提振物价的关键。 此外，近期央行发布的《2024年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》中明确提出，把促进物价合理回升作 为把握货币政 策 的重要考量，这一表述释放出清晰的政策信号，即未来一段时间，推动物价温和上涨 将成为货币政策的重要着力点。 CPI略有下降，核心CPI同比涨幅扩大 5月份CPI数据呈现"食 品 、能源弱、核心稳"的格局。从环比看，5月能源价格环比下降1.7%，影响CPI 环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。CPI环比由涨转降主要受能源价格下降影响。从同比 看，5月CPI同比略有下降， 降幅与上月相同 。其中，能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百 分点，影响CPI同比下降 ...

6月9日，国家统计局公布5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）。 5月，CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相 同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 东方金诚研究发展部总监冯琳在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）微信采访时认为，5月CPI同比下降0.1%，略高于市场预期。主要原因是 当月工业消费品价格和服务价格同比涨幅扩大，抵消了国际原油价格下跌向国内能源价格传导以及食品价格同比降幅扩大的影响，带动整体CPI同比保持稳 定。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟认为，影响本月PPI环比下降的主要原因，一是国际输入性因素影响国内相关行业价格下降，二是国内部分能源和原材 料价格阶段性下行。 5月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.1% 图片来源：国家统计局 核心CPI同比上涨0.6% 5月，CPI同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 冯琳分析，5月应季蔬菜上市量增加，加之上年同 ...

Domestic News - The Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions to enhance social security fairness, improve public service equity, expand basic livelihood services, and increase accessibility to diverse social services, including measures such as removing household registration restrictions for social insurance participation and increasing minimum wage standards [1][2] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The decline in CPI was mainly influenced by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for nearly 70% of the total decline [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points. The decrease was attributed to international input factors and a temporary decline in domestic energy and raw material prices [2] - In the first five months, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 3.8%. ASEAN, the EU, and the US were the top three trading partners [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs announced a pilot program for smart elderly care service robots, requiring application verification in various settings, including homes and communities, with a minimum deployment of 200 units [2] Market Overview - As of June 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43% to 3399.77, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.65% to 10250.14, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.07% to 2061.29. The Hang Seng Index also saw a rise of 1.63% to 24181.43 [7] - The onshore and offshore RMB both appreciated against the US dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.1838, up 93 points, and the offshore rate also at 7.1838, up 39 points [7] - The WTI crude oil price was at $64.62, up 0.06%, while Brent crude oil was at $65.82, showing no significant change [7]

Inflation Data Summary - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month, while the month-on-month change was -0.2%, down from 0.1%[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased to -3.3% from -2.7%, with a month-on-month change of -0.4%, consistent with the previous month[3] CPI Analysis - The CPI month-on-month decline of -0.2% aligns with the seasonal average over the past four years[3] - Food prices showed resilience with a month-on-month change of -0.2%, better than the four-year average of -0.9%, while non-food prices also fell by -0.2%, below the average of 0.0%[3] - Pork prices have remained stable, contributing less to CPI changes, with fresh vegetables and fruits showing stronger seasonal performance[3] PPI Insights - The PPI has broken below the previous range of -2.0% to -3.0%, indicating a significant downward trend[3] - Production materials have seen a month-on-month decline for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year drop of -4.0%[3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total decrease[3] Economic Outlook - Actual GDP is expected to remain resilient in Q2, but nominal GDP may face pressure, impacting equity market potential[3] - The report highlights the need for increased policy measures to stimulate demand and address supply-side competition issues[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, unexpected declines in real estate investment, and inflationary pressures from the U.S.[3]