🚨 The CPI report, originally set for Wednesday, October 15, has been postponed to October 24 due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. https://t.co/u2M2EOo82z ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guosen Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report date: October 12, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes suggest that most participants believe further monetary policy easing is appropriate this year, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week with no obvious trend. Refined nickel demand remains weak. Nickel ore circulation in the coastal areas of the Philippines has slowed due to weather, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia has a relatively loose supply. The high - frequency data of nickel sulfate shows a recent price rebound, but whether it can change the weak situation in the medium term remains to be seen. In the stainless - steel market, steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,200 to 13,300 yuan/ton [36]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [7][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream: China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the historical data of China's nickel ore port inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13]. 2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - The historical price data of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) are presented, without specific analysis [14][15]. 2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - The historical average price data of nickel sulfate in China are shown, without specific analysis [16][17]. 2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The historical monthly import volume data of ferronickel in China and the Fubao price data of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, without specific analysis [18][19]. 2.5 Downstream: Stainless - Steel Market - Stainless - steel price: The historical closing price data of stainless - steel futures are shown, without specific analysis [20][21]. - Stainless - steel futures positions: The historical position data of stainless - steel futures are presented, without specific analysis [22][23]. - Wuxi stainless - steel inventory: The historical inventory data of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel are shown, without specific analysis [25][26]. 2.6 Downstream: Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - The historical monthly production data of China's power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production data are presented, without specific analysis [28][29]. 2.7 Downstream: New - Energy Vehicle Production - The historical monthly production data of China's new - energy vehicles are shown, without specific analysis [30][31]. 3. Future Outlook - In the US, inflation data is in line with expectations, employment data is lower than expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. In China, the manufacturing PMI continues to improve, indicating a consolidation of the economic recovery momentum in the third quarter [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market is oscillating, refined nickel demand is weak, the supply situation of upstream nickel ore varies, the nickel sulfate price has rebounded recently, and the stainless - steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts are given [36].

🇺🇸 JUST IN: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September’s CPI report despite the government shutdown, ensuring data is available before the Fed’s October 29 meeting. ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's approach is seen as a normalization of rates rather than an accommodative policy, with expectations of a 100 basis point increase over the next year to reach a neutral rate of about 3% [1][2] - The GDP report is anticipated to show strong performance, with estimates suggesting over 3% growth for the second and third quarters, although a weaker report is expected for the fourth quarter [2][3] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending has shown volatility, with a weak first quarter followed by a strong rebound in the second quarter, but signs of a slowdown are emerging in October, particularly in discretionary spending [4][5] - Retailers are expected to provide insights into the extent of the slowdown in consumer spending during the upcoming earnings season [5] Market Reactions - The equity markets are currently focused on key drivers such as the AI trend and the upcoming earnings season, which is expected to show double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive quarter [7] - The impact of a potential government shutdown on the labor market is being monitored, with concerns that prolonged shutdowns could lead to permanent layoffs affecting an already fragile labor market [6][8] Consumer Behavior Insights - There is a shift in consumer spending patterns, with discretionary core goods spending declining while services spending is fluctuating, particularly in the restaurant and travel sectors [11] - Retail margins have remained surprisingly decent despite tariff headwinds, and retailers will be assessed on their ability to manage costs and pass on expenses in the upcoming quarters [12]

Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan sentiment preliminary view is 5500%, slightly better than expected and close to September's final read of 5510% [1] - Current conditions index is 6100%, better than expected and higher than the previous 6040% [2] - Expectations index is 5120%, a slight disappointment compared to expectations and the previous 5170% [2] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectation is 460%, one tenth less than expected and the previous 470%, the lowest since February's 430% [2][3] - Five to ten-year inflation expectation remains at 370%, matching both expectations and the previous reading [3] Market Indicators - Current ten-year Treasury yield is 409%, down three basis points from last week's settlement at 412% [5] Economic Data Delay - Government shutdown has caused delays in the release of construction spending, jobless claims, factory orders, September jobs report, and wholesale inventories and sales [4] - CPI data for October, potentially related to COLA, is scheduled for release on October 15th, but the release date is uncertain [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" compared to the market [1][118] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry shows strong resilience with improvements in both domestic and international sales [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a slight recovery in manufacturing, with the PMI index at 49.4% in August 2025, still in the contraction zone, but production PMI at 50.8% indicates expansion [2][6] - Fixed asset investment in China reached 326,111 billion yuan from January to August 2025, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.4% and manufacturing investment by 5.1% [14] Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is 49.4%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating marginal improvement but still in contraction [2][6] - The PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August 2025, ending an eight-month decline, while the CPI fell by 0.4% [11] - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 totaled 326,111 billion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year increase, with infrastructure investment up 5.4% and real estate investment down 13.2% [14] 2. China Engineering Machinery Sales Overview - From January to August 2025, excavator sales reached 154,181 units, a 17.2% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 21.5% [19][26] - Sales of various machinery types showed mixed results, with tower cranes down 34.5% and high-altitude work vehicles up 40.5% [27][41][100] - Overall, the sales of construction machinery reflect a structural divergence, with some categories like excavators and loaders performing well while others like tower cranes are struggling [51][56]

💥BREAKING:CPI DATA REPORTEDLY STILL DROPPING NEXT WEEK, NO DELAY DESPITE SHUTDOWN! https://t.co/jWCu9Tm7sB ...

Government Shutdown Impact on Data & Fed Policy - The government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process due to the lack of hard data, including government jobs data and inflation data [1] - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to rely on existing labor market data with alternative datasets or pause and wait for the release of delayed data [3] - Data delays have ripple effects, potentially impacting the quality of CPI data for October, November, and December [4] - The shutdown leads to murkier data, with a higher percentage of CPI goods being estimated by staff [4] Economic Impact - The shutdown is estimated to drag quarterly GDP by approximately 10 basis points per week [6] - Federal workers are losing approximately $400 million per day in compensation, impacting consumer spending [6] Market Reaction - Markets are likely to react negatively if the Fed pauses due to the government shutdown, as rate cuts have already been priced in [9] - Alternative data sets do not fully compensate for the lack of government data, particularly in gauging the magnitude of economic changes [10][11] - The range of estimates for the September payroll report varies widely, from as high as 60,000 to as low as negative 30,000 [11] Investment Strategy - The government shutdown has not caused dramatic shifts in investment strategies, as underlying earnings remain strong [14] - Q3 earnings growth estimates have ticked up from 8% to 88%, indicating underlying strength in the markets [16]

Economic Indicators & Data Uncertainty - Traditional economic indicators are currently unreliable due to ongoing circumstances [1] - Key data releases including trade figures, jobless claims, and inventories are anticipated but may be delayed [1] - The market is closely watching New York Fed inflation expectations and the University of Michigan sentiment index [2] - The availability and reliability of CPI data are uncertain, potentially based on only 45% of usual data [5][6] Federal Reserve (Fed) Communication & Policy - Fed minutes from the first meeting and ongoing Fed speaker events are being monitored for insights into rate-cutting cycle [2] - The impact of Fed speakers is questioned due to the lack of new economic data [3] - Jay Powell's upcoming speech on the economic outlook is a key event [4] Upcoming Economic Data - CPI, PPI, retail sales, import prices, and housing starts data are highly anticipated but their release depends on government operations [5]

Group 1 - Switzerland's CPI in September decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations and a previous decrease of 0.1% [1] - Year-on-year, the CPI increased by 0.2%, which is below the expected increase of 0.3% and consistent with the previous year's increase of 0.2% [1]