黑色建材日报 2025-07-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3061 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.35%）。当日注册仓单 36441 吨, 环比增加 7273 吨。主力合约持仓量为 219.733 万手，环比减少 41257 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 10 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.5555 万手，环比增 ...

Group 1 - The cement industry is undergoing the most stringent regulatory actions in history to address the long-standing issue of "capacity mismatch" [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a draft requiring companies to complete capacity rectification applications by the end of 2025, making government-approved capacity a core requirement for production licenses [1][3] - The China Cement Association has also mandated strict checks on the discrepancies between actual and registered capacities, with deadlines for compliance [1] Group 2 - The mismatch between registered and actual capacities has become a chronic issue, disrupting market order and intensifying internal competition [3] - The national cement capacity utilization rate has dropped below 53% in 2024, marking a historical low, with demand expected to decline by nearly 10% in 2024 and 5% to 8% in 2025 [3] - Current national cement capacity exceeds 3.6 billion tons, with clinker capacity over 1.8 billion tons, leading to a severe overcapacity situation [3] Group 3 - The cement industry has seen a significant reduction in new capacity due to falling demand and prices, with 12 clinker production lines totaling 17.67 million tons of annual capacity halted since 2025 [4] - The operating rate of clinker kilns has dropped to around 50%, with further declines anticipated as demand continues to decrease [4] Group 4 - The industry is exploring a combination of market-driven and policy-guided approaches to address overcapacity, focusing on balancing supply and demand and optimizing resource allocation [5] - Industry consolidation is viewed as a fundamental solution, with calls for supportive policies to encourage mergers and acquisitions among companies in the same region [5] - Since the end of 2024, merger and acquisition activities in the cement industry have accelerated, with several notable transactions announced [5][6] Group 5 - Conch Cement has indicated that the industry is entering a significant consolidation window amid weakening demand and increasing competition, planning to pursue quality acquisition projects in low-concentration markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is facing challenges in profitability due to low capacity utilization in its non-memory chip business [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The non-memory chip business of Samsung Electronics is experiencing low capacity utilization, which is negatively impacting its profitability [1] - The company is expected to continue facing pressure on margins as demand for non-memory chips remains weak [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is currently experiencing fluctuations in demand, particularly in the non-memory segment, affecting major players like Samsung [1] - The overall market conditions for non-memory chips are anticipated to remain challenging, influencing the operational strategies of companies within the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company disclosed its main operational data for the pig farming business in June 2025, highlighting significant increases in both sales volume and inventory levels compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Sales and Inventory Data - The sales volume of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.24 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.46% [2]. - The inventory level at the end of June 2025 was 54.70 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 20.70% [2]. - The month-end inventory increased by 1.98% compared to May 2025 and was up 6.64% from December 2024 [2]. Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company is actively optimizing its pig farming capacity by adjusting its farming layout, scale, and breed structure [2]. - The company will continue to adhere to a strategy focused on stability and cost reduction, concentrating resources on developing advantageous production capacity [2].

Core Viewpoint - The cement and steel industries are facing significant challenges due to declining demand and prices, leading to a consensus among companies to implement production cuts and measures to protect profits, termed "anti-involution" policies [1][2][5]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [1]. - Major cement-producing provinces, Shandong and Sichuan, are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decrease from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [6][9]. - The current average cement price is projected to decline from 419 yuan/ton in 2023 to 386 yuan/ton in 2024, and further to 381 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also under pressure, with prices at historical lows following a peak in 2021. The average price index for steel is expected to drop to approximately 3506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [3][7]. - Steel production companies are implementing production cuts, particularly in Tangshan, where hard emission reduction measures will be enforced from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron output by about 50,000 tons per day [4]. - The steel industry's profits have significantly decreased, from 4240.9 billion yuan in 2021 to 365.5 billion yuan in 2022, and are projected to be 564.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 291.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The overall market for both cement and steel is characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a need for structural adjustments to avoid systemic collapse in the industry [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" measures are crucial for achieving a balance between supply and demand during periods of declining demand, which is essential for the healthy development of the industry [9][10]. - The current economic environment necessitates a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [10][11].

反内卷政策解读：行业视角之水泥 20250707 摘要 水泥行业产能过剩严重，2024 年产能利用率仅为 53%，远低于非金属 矿业平均水平，且销量同比下降至少 10%。区域间发展不平衡加剧问题， 部分地区开窑率已降至 30%以下，行业面临突出的结构性矛盾。 水泥企业主要通过错峰生产和控产量应对内卷，但部分企业为追求规模 化和市场份额，不执行错峰生产，导致价格波动剧烈，破坏行业生态。 尽管如此，多数企业仍对反内卷政策抱有期望。 未来水泥价格预计将持续受供需矛盾影响，需加强自律手段，如精准错 峰限产和合规限产，以控制总量并稳定市场价格。或将出台更严格的自 律措施，通过政府或行业提升处罚力度。 区域性水泥企业对反内卷政策接受度较高，而全国性布局企业在控价能 力强的区域更积极。部分产能发挥不足或使用替代燃料的企业倾向于产 能双控，龙头企业也逐渐接受错峰生产。 国家层面推进供给侧结构性改革 2.0，遏制低价无序竞争，提升产品质 量。市场监管总局加大抽查力度，淘汰低水平粉磨站。但水泥行业自律 机制受反垄断法限制，需更高层次文件支持。 Q&A 未来水泥相关产品价格预计将继续受到供需矛盾加剧和需求不断下滑的影响。 在此背景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 35,000 million yuan for 2025, with a strong focus on operational efficiency and market expansion in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Goals - As of the first half of 2025, the company expects to achieve revenue between 16,500 million and 19,500 million yuan, indicating that it is on track to meet its annual goals [1]. - The overall market demand is expected to recover in 2025, with ceramic products maintaining stable development trends due to their essential nature in daily life [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Expansion - The company plans to actively expand into the high-end market for household ceramics by optimizing product structure and enhancing customer service systems [2]. - There will be a focus on upgrading the production capacity and technological innovation of zircon-titanium mineral refining products to create new growth points for performance [2]. - The company is committed to improving financial management and operational efficiency through supply chain optimization and production process improvements [2].

Group 1: General Information - The research object is Sitong Co., Ltd., belonging to the decoration and building materials industry, and the reception time was on July 7, 2025. The listed company's reception staff included the board secretary, CFO Zhang Ping, and the securities affairs representative Chen Chuan [17] - The research was participated by securities companies such as CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and China Merchants Securities [18] Group 2: Core Views - The company aims to achieve an operating income of 350 million - 420 million yuan in 2025. As of H1 2025, it expects to achieve an operating income of 165 million - 195 million yuan, nearly half of the target. It will strive to complete the annual operating target in H2 [21] - The zirconium - titanium ore refining business supports the company's performance steadily with the progress of process technology, increased production capacity, and accumulated customer resources [21] - In H2 2025, the company will expand the high - end market of household porcelain, optimize product structure and customer service, and promote the production capacity upgrade and technological innovation of zirconium - titanium ore products to create new growth points [21] - The company will strengthen financial management, implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement measures, and improve operating efficiency to eliminate the delisting risk warning [22] - In H1 2025, the company expanded the domestic market while consolidating overseas customers. Its business is expected to maintain good growth in H2 [23]

以下文章来源于字母榜 ，作者彦飞 字母榜 . 让未来不止于大 产能瓶颈难得住小米吗？ 文 ｜ 彦飞 编辑 ｜ 王靖 来源｜ 字母榜（ID：wujicaijing） 封面来源 ｜IC Photo 在YU7一小时大定近30万单火爆登场后， 小米正面临着一场空前艰苦的产能冲刺。 截至目前，小米汽车APP的YU7交付时间已经拉长至9个月，甚至一年以上。其中，YU7标准版为58~61周，Pro版为51~54周，Max版为39~42周。 小米汽车门店的销售人员确认了这一点，并建议订购起售价高达32.99万元的Max版，尽量缩短交车周期。 对于漫长的等待，小米粉丝并不特别介意。字母榜在探店时发现，动辄一年的等待期，并没有让忠实拥趸热情稍减。这里面有品牌忠诚度的因素，也有大多 数购车者均为增购、家里另有车开的原因。 但手握数十万张锁定订单的小米，并不敢就此躺平一整年。 如何尽快拉升产能，已成为小米汽车接下来很长一段时间的头等要务。 目前，小米所有车辆均产自北京亦庄的一期工厂，原本设计年产能15万辆，去年6月开始两班倒，并通过加装机器人等挖掘潜能。目前，这座工厂每76秒就 有一辆新车下线，日产量约1000辆。 小米拉高产能的关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mobile power bank industry is facing a significant crisis due to a series of product recalls and operational challenges, primarily stemming from safety issues related to battery cells, which have led to widespread operational disruptions among major manufacturers [4][10][20]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The mobile power bank market has become extremely competitive, characterized by low margins and high pressure on manufacturers to innovate while maintaining cost efficiency [5][21]. - The market is projected to grow from $13.59 billion in 2024 to $20.35 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.40% [23]. - The industry has shifted from a focus on capacity to a more comprehensive competition involving fast charging, design, and pricing, as growth rates have slowed [24][25]. Group 2: Recent Events - The crisis was triggered by a recall of 490,000 units by Romoss and 713,000 units by Anker due to safety concerns related to defective battery cells [4][10]. - Romoss announced a temporary halt in production for six months starting July 7, 2025, due to operational challenges exacerbated by the recall [4]. - Anker's vice president expressed anxiety and urgency within the organization as they navigate the fallout from the recalls [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - The recalls were linked to a specific battery cell supplier, Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), which reportedly made unauthorized changes to raw materials, leading to safety hazards [10][11][14]. - Amperex is a leading supplier in the soft-pack battery sector, producing over 100 million lithium batteries in 2023, with major clients including Romoss and Anker [13]. - The complexity of battery safety production and testing poses significant challenges, with many potential points of failure in the supply chain [17][19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industry is marked by intense competition, with many companies racing to enhance performance and features, often at the expense of safety and reliability [28]. - The price of power banks has significantly decreased, with Romoss's 20,000mAh fast-charging model dropping from a price range of 129-149 yuan in 2021 to 69 yuan by the end of 2024 [26]. - Companies like Anker and Ugreen are investing in research and development to differentiate themselves in a saturated market, with R&D expense ratios of 8.5% and 4.9%, respectively [29].