量化金融研究丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 广发中证智选高股息策略 ETF（159207）：聚焦 高息资产，把握低风险下高确定性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中证智选高股息策略指数选取 50 只连续分红且现金分红预案股息率较高的上市公司证券作为 指数样本，以反映股息率较高上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数由中证指数公司发布，指数代 码：932305.CSI，指数简称：智选高股息。智选高股息指数在全区间的年化收益率达到 13.37% （2005 年 12 月 31 日至 2025 年 6 月 11 日），超越中证 500（10.63%）、沪深 300（7.92%） 等宽基指数以及中证红利指数（10.09%）等高股息策略指数。广发中证智选高股息策略 ETF （159207）采用指数化投资策略，紧密跟踪标的指数，追求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差最小化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524080006 SAC：S0490513030001 邓元哲 覃川桃 SFC：BUT353 [Table ...

研究报告 Research Report 23 Jun 2025 珍酒李渡 ZJLD (6979 HK) 珍酒李渡跟踪报告：立足长远，前瞻布局 Take a Long-term Perspective and Plan Ahead [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$6.16 目标价 HK$8.80 HTI ESG 0.9-1.3-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$20.87bn / US$2.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$5.85mn 发行股票数目 3,389mn 自由流通股 (%) 31% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$10.34-HK$5.71 注：现价 HK$6.16 为 2025 年 06 月 20 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 -8.7% -16.8% -23.1% 绝 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for H-shares over A-shares, emphasizing the potential of Hong Kong dividend assets [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that H-shares have outperformed A-shares, with significant gains in key dividend stocks during June 2025. The top performers include Anhui Wantuo Expressway (+18.66%), Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway (+14.71%), and COSCO Shipping Ports (+9.17%) [4][17]. - The report notes a low interest rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing to 1.64% as of June 20, 2025, which supports the attractiveness of dividend assets [24]. - The report indicates a significant increase in average daily trading volume for ports, with a 213% year-on-year increase in June 2025 [25]. Monthly Market Performance - H-shares showed better performance compared to A-shares, with the transportation sector experiencing a cumulative decline of 0.80% from June 1 to June 20, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [8][9]. - The report details that from June 1 to June 20, 2025, the cumulative performance of expressways, railways, and ports was -2.56%, -1.81%, and -1.01%, respectively, indicating a relative underperformance against the broader market [9][10]. Industry Data - In the expressway sector, passenger traffic in April 2025 reached 970 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while freight volume was 3.746 billion tons, up 4.1% year-on-year [35]. - The railway sector saw a passenger volume of 406 million in May 2025, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year increase, while freight volume was 440 million tons, a 0.6% increase [51]. - Port throughput for monitored ports reached 1.054 billion tons in the four weeks from May 19 to June 15, 2025, marking a 2.2% year-on-year growth [58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for transportation dividend assets, particularly in the expressway sector, where it recommends focusing on companies like Sichuan Chengyu Expressway and Anhui Wantuo Expressway due to their high dividend yields and stable growth potential [76][78]. - In the port sector, the report recommends companies like China Merchants Port, highlighting their overseas asset layout and potential for increased dividend payouts [79][80]. - For the railway sector, the report emphasizes the long-term value and reform benefits, recommending key assets like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway [78].

发布时间：2025-06-23 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《震荡仍是主旋律，等待内部政策窗口 期》 - 2025.06.16 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 策略观点 短期地缘冲突逆风延续，A 股面临压力 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股受外围地缘政治冲突影响表现不佳。本周主要股指全数 下跌，其中高股息大市值个股占比高的上证 50 微跌 0.10%表现最佳， 其余权重指数跌幅亦较小，科创 50、创业板指、中证 1000 和中证 500 跌幅较大。行业层面，外围地缘冲突影响下市场风偏趋于谨慎。本周 申万一级行业中仅有银行、通信和电子有正收益，在伊以冲突延续并 有烈度增强迹象的背景下，A 股在下半周避险情绪显著升温，快速切 向以银行为代表的高股息板块进行防御。 A 股个人投资者情绪指数再跌入 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions in Iran on global oil prices, particularly the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to significant increases in oil prices [1][2] - As of June 23, Brent crude oil has risen by 20.6% this month, reaching $76.9 per barrel, the highest since February [1] - JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have provided forecasts indicating that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could spike, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential peak of $110 per barrel if oil flow is significantly reduced [1] Group 2 - The National Enterprise Dividend Index (code 000824) combines themes of state-owned enterprises and dividend strategies, enhancing the effectiveness of investment strategies [2] - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) tracks the National Enterprise Dividend Index, which is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in state-owned enterprises, improving profitability and operational efficiency [2] - The ETF is recommended for active consideration as it selects high-quality state-owned enterprises with strong profitability and low valuations [2]

消息面上，央国企并购重组提速，近日，两大船舶央企——中国船舶工业股份有限公司与中国船舶重工 股份有限公司的合并取得实质性进展。根据中国船舶稍早之前披露的信息，此次双方合并，中国船舶为 吸收合并方，中国重工（维权）为被吸收合并方。中国船舶将以向中国重工全体换股股东发行A股股票 的方式换股吸收合并中国重工。从今年年初开始，淮河能源集团、国家电投集团、华电国际、上海电力 等多家能源电力国企央企纷纷启动重大资产重组，推动国有资本向能源安全核心领域、新型电力及新能 源前瞻性领域等关键领域集中。 东吴证券指出，近年国内利率中枢持续下行，国内各类资产的投资回报率预期也整体走弱，当前相比 A 股，港股红利的股息率更具吸引力。港股恒生高股息指数的股息率达 8.1%，中证红利指数股息率为 5.8%。即使扣除 20%的分红税，港股红利资产经税后的实际收益水平仍显著优于 A 股同类资产。 截至2025年6月23日 13:15，恒生央企ETF(513170)上涨0.89%，最新价报1.35元。截至6月20日，恒生央 企ETF近1年净值上涨18.78%。 流动性方面，恒生央企ETF盘中换手1.61%，成交848.99万元。拉长时间看，截 ...

2025.06. 23 本文字数：1198，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 今年以来个税收入保持相对较快增长，成为推动今年全国税收收入降幅持续缩窄的一个重要因素。 近日财政部公布的2025年1-5月财政收支情况显示，2025年前5个月个税收入为6572亿元，同比增 长8.2%。这一增速高于今年前5个月全国税收收入增速（-1.6%），也高于2024年全年个税增速 （-1.7%）。其中5月份个税收入为1196亿元，同比增长12.3%。 个税是对居民工资薪金、劳务报酬、财产性收入等征税，居民收入稳步增长是个税增长的基础。 个税征管持续强化，也起到一定的增收效应。比如近期税务总局网站实名曝光3起自然人纳税人未依 法办理个人所得税综合所得汇算偷税案件，其中1人补缴个税及滞纳金、罚款超千万，释放了严打个 税偷逃税行为信号。 一些地方部门对当地个税收入增长较快成因的做了初步分析，总体上跟一些居民收入增加相关。 比如北京个税收入规模常年位居全国各省前列。北京市财政局数据显示，当地前4个月个人所得税同 比增长6.4%，主要是部分企业在4月份股权激励行权、发放年终奖缴纳个税增加带动。 根据此前税务部门公开数据，我 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a downward trend from June 16 to June 20, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting short-term risk appetite, leading to increased interest in defensive dividend strategies [1] - During this period, dividend-themed ETFs attracted a total of 1.369 billion yuan, with the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) seeing net inflows for four out of five trading days, accumulating 755 million yuan [1] - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) reached a record high in fund size, achieving 6.42 million units and 963 million yuan in weekly growth, with a total fund size of 18.423 billion yuan as of June 20 [1] Group 2 - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has demonstrated strong market adaptability since its inception, with an annualized return of 13.82% as of June 20, making it increasingly attractive to investors [2] - This ETF tracks an index comprising 50 stocks known for consistent dividends, high dividend yields, and low volatility, providing investors with opportunities in high-dividend, low-valuation assets [2] - The ETF's linked funds have also gained popularity, with 829,800 holders as of the end of 2024, making it one of the few dividend-themed index funds with over 800,000 holders [2] Group 3 - In addition to the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890), Huatai-PineBridge has developed a range of five dividend-themed ETFs, including the first dividend ETF (510880) and a QDII mode ETF for Hong Kong stocks (513530) [3] - As of June 20, the total management scale of Huatai-PineBridge's dividend-themed ETFs exceeded 41 billion yuan [3]

近日，国家监管总局人身险司向所有人身险保险公司下发了《关于分红险分红水平监管意见的函》，要求各公司稳健经营，坚持长期主 义，把资产负债管理理念贯穿保险产品和服务全流程全周期。不得偏离账户的资产负债和投资收益实际情况。这里的核心要求有两点：一 是要坚持长期主义，二是要有投资支撑。 国内分红险销售已有20多年历史。从2023年开始，各家保司在官网开始披露红利实现率。 直观来看，红利实现率可以直接反映保户获得红利演示的兑现情况，也有助于提高保险公司信息披露的透明度。在今年寿险行业即将披露红利实现率之 际，"13精"将从红利实现率影响因素、客户收益率、长期分红实力等角度帮您科学理解、准确使用红利实现率指标。 1 "13精"给出了红利实现率的计算公式。需要说明的是，分红险产品的实际收益率指的是保单持有人获取的实际收益，下文称为客户收益率（既有预定利 率，也有浮动的红利）。 红利实现率的影响因素 其中，销售演示利率是保险公司基于销售当时市场环境下的长期投资预期。 当然，演示红利要符合监管规定。监管对于分红险演示红利逐步进行了规范，如2020年6月开始要求演示红利仅包含利差，分配比例统一为70%。2024 年10月开始要求 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Market Risk Management Measures for Commercial Banks," emphasizing the integration of market risk management policies into the overall risk management framework, applicable to domestic and foreign subsidiaries with independent legal status [1] - Commercial banks are required to recognize legal differences and funding flow barriers between subsidiaries and adjust their risk management policies accordingly to avoid underestimating market risks [1] Group 2: Investment Activities - Ping An Life increased its stake in China Merchants Bank's H-shares by 6.2955 million shares on June 17, reaching 15% of the bank's H-share capital, triggering a mandatory disclosure under Hong Kong market rules [1] - This marks the third time within six months that Ping An Life has raised its stake in China Merchants Bank, which is the only bank to have been targeted three times by insurance capital among 13 listed companies since 2025 [1] Group 3: Market Trends - Dividend ETFs have seen significant net inflows this year, with a total increase of 17.868 billion shares and net inflow amounting to 20.22 billion yuan, indicating a strong demand for dividend assets due to their high yield and low volatility characteristics [2] - Several Hong Kong dividend ETFs have performed exceptionally well, with some products showing a net value increase of over 10% [2] Group 4: Insurance Sector Insights - CITIC Securities noted that listed insurance companies have fully implemented new financial instrument standards (IFRS9) and new insurance contract standards (IFRS17), which may increase profit volatility but also smooth profits through investments in dividend stocks [3] - The risk factors associated with dividend stocks are lower compared to growth stocks, which helps mitigate the impact of declining solvency on insurance companies [3] Group 5: Investment Products - Various ETFs are highlighted, including the National Enterprise Win-Win ETF, which tracks the FTSE China National Enterprise Open Win-Win Index, focusing on state-owned enterprises and reflecting high-quality development [4] - The Greater Bay Area ETF tracks the performance of companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, emphasizing balanced industry distribution and technological innovation [4] - The Free Cash Flow ETF selects companies with high free cash flow rates, excluding financial and real estate sectors, reflecting strong cash flow generation capabilities [4]