行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 1 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 4 月下旬至今伦敦黄金整体上处于 3100-3500 美元/盎司之间宽幅震荡，国际 贸易形势缓和与金融市场走好削弱黄金的避险需求，但国际贸易货币体系重组以 及美联储降息预期继续支撑金价。我们判断国际贸易货币体系重组带来的避险需 求和储备分散化需求将继续支撑黄金长周期牛市，特朗普同时推进国内外多项重 磅改革导致经济增长疲软与央行降息预期将继续支撑黄金中周期牛市；但金价持 续偏强运行以及极高的市盈率水平也意味着金价波动性显著增强，美国就业市场 疲软为美联储重启降息进程提供必要条件但通 ...

八月的国际金融市场，上演了一场惊心动魄的黄金突围战。 当纽约商品交易所的金价定格在每盎司3516.1美元时，整个华尔街为之震动。单日暴涨1.2%，周涨幅达2.86%，月度累计飙升5%——这是自今年4月以来黄 金最辉煌的战绩。而在大洋彼岸的中国市场，黄金零售价应声突破700元/克大关，各大金柜前再度排起长队。 这波突如其来的黄金牛市，背后隐藏着怎样不为人知的逻辑？ 第二条则牵扯白宫与美联储的微妙关系。特朗普突然免去美联储理事库克的职务，这场人事地震引发连锁反应。投资者突然意识到，美联储的独立性可能受 到政治干预，美元资产的可靠性被打上问号。当信心出现裂缝，黄金就成为最好的避风港。 美国银行首席分析师迈克尔·哈特内特在最新报告中指出："这两大事件共同造就了黄金的完美风暴。一方面降息预期降低持有黄金的机会成本，另一方面政 治风险提振避险需求，形成罕见的双重利好。" 更值得关注的是，市场对美联储的降息预期正在自我实现。期货市场数据显示，交易员预计9月降息概率已升至75%，年内可能迎来两次降息。这种预期正 在重塑全球资产配置格局——美债收益率曲线趋平，美元指数承压，大量资金正从美元资产转向黄金市场。 金融机构的动向印证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in September is expected to exhibit structural characteristics, with investors needing to closely monitor policy developments, economic data releases, and changes in trading volume [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Investors should flexibly adjust their investment strategies based on market conditions [1] - Focus areas for investment include technology growth sectors (AI, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals), cyclical sectors (resources, manufacturing overseas), and certain defensive sectors (finance, consumer) [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Changes in the expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are a significant variable affecting global asset pricing, particularly impacting resource commodities and global capital flows [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - A "cautiously optimistic" mindset is recommended, with an emphasis on balanced allocation, buying on dips, and avoiding chasing high prices [1]

Stock Market Performance - In August 2025, global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with the CSI 300 index rising over 10%[4] - The Hang Seng Tech index, Nikkei 225, and Dow Jones increased by 4.1%, 4.0%, and 3.2% respectively, while the KOSPI and DAX fell by 1.8% and 0.7%[4] Hong Kong Stock Sector Performance - The Hang Seng industry indices showed a majority of sectors rising, with the materials sector surging by 24.3%, followed by information technology and industrial sectors with increases of 7.5% and 4.5% respectively[8] - Conversely, the composite and utilities sectors declined by 2.5% and 1.8% respectively[8] IPO and Financing Overview - In August 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 5 new listings, raising approximately HKD 52.9 million, primarily in the TMT and pharmaceutical sectors[13] - The first-day performance of new stocks was strong, with three stocks doubling in value[13] - A total of 56 companies announced share placements, expected to raise around HKD 204.9 billion, mainly in the pharmaceutical, TMT, and energy sectors[13] Macro Economic Insights - The U.S. job market showed significant pressure in August, with initial jobless claims rising to 235,000, the highest since June, indicating increasing unemployment challenges[14] - The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting indicated a shift towards a more dovish stance, with market expectations for at least two rate cuts by the end of the year[14] Domestic Economic Policies - China is focusing on strengthening domestic circulation, with significant infrastructure projects and financial support to stabilize the economy[16] - The relaxation of merger loan financing aims to support active mergers and acquisitions, enhancing industrial upgrades[16] Market Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, with three key investment themes: technology growth sectors (AI, internet, semiconductors), improving industry sectors (new energy, building materials), and stable dividend assets[18]

景顺亚太区全球市场策略师赵耀庭对《国际金融报》记者表示，美联储现在明显对就业数据的疲软更加担忧——美国7月非农就业人数仅增加了7.3万人， 而预期为11万人。虽然鲍威尔没有明确表示美联储将在9月降息，但他为降息设定了一个较低的门槛。 此外，当地时间8月29日，美国公布的最新通胀数据显示，美国7月核心个人消费支出价格指数同比上涨2.9%。数据公布后，交易员对美联储在9月政策会 议上降息25个基点的预期概率从85%进一步提高到87%，甚至有人预测全年可能降息一至两次。 降息预期升温推动金价上涨的逻辑机制在于：当市场预期美联储将降息时，美元指数通常会走弱，而黄金与美元通常呈现"跷跷板效应"。同时，降息会降 低持有黄金的机会成本。 国际金价近日持续上涨。 9月1日，国际现货黄金高开，盘中一度向上触及3471美元/盎司，为4月末以来新高。。 回顾整个8月，纽约商品交易所黄金期货主力合约价格累计涨幅超5%，创下今年4月以来的最佳单月表现。 美国银行分析师指出，有两个重要原因推高国际金价：一是美联储降息预期强化；二是近期美联储理事被免职风波削弱市场对美元资产信心。 先来看美联储降息预期。美联储主席鲍威尔8月22日在杰克逊霍 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving up precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] - The COMEX silver has reached a new high for the year, while London gold is approaching its annual peak, indicating a strong technical breakout [1] - The core PCE index in the U.S. has risen for three consecutive months, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures, which is fueling market speculation for a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the precious metals sector include Xingye Silver, Shengda Resources, Zijin Mining, and Shandong Gold, which are expected to benefit from rising gold and silver prices [1] - The gold stock ETF has shown a significant increase, with a 44.43% rise in net value over the past year, indicating strong performance in the gold sector [5] Group 3: ETF Performance - The gold stock ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [5] - The ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 1.51, ranking it in the top 33% of comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [5] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index, which includes 50 major companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [5][6] Group 4: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index account for 66.52% of the index, with Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold being the largest components [6][8] - The performance of individual stocks within the index shows significant gains, with Zijin Mining up 4.25% and Shandong Gold up 5.94% [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong stock market and the changes in foreign capital preferences since May 2025, driven by improved Sino-US relations and a weaker dollar [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Foreign Capital Inflow**: From May to July 2025, long-term foreign capital returned to the Hong Kong stock market, totaling nearly 70 billion HKD [1][5]. - **Sector Performance**: - Despite an overall outflow of foreign capital from early 2024 to April 2025, there was an increase in investment in hardware and consumer goods sectors [3]. - From May 2025 onwards, both long-term and short-term foreign capital consistently flowed into the technology sector, while real estate and pharmaceuticals showed mixed results [3][10]. - Dividend and retail sectors faced significant reductions in foreign investment [4][9]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a stable Sino-US trade relationship are anticipated to continue driving foreign capital back into the Hong Kong market [6]. Investment Trends - **Technology Sector**: The technology and internet sectors, along with large financial institutions, remain long-term favorites for foreign investors, with foreign ownership in these sectors reaching approximately 70% [7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The technology sector in Hong Kong is noted for its low valuation and strong fundamentals, making it attractive for foreign investment [10][11]. - **AI Industry Impact**: The ongoing transformation in the AI industry is expected to benefit leading technology companies in Hong Kong, providing significant upside potential [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the Hong Kong market is improving due to geopolitical factors and a historical low in asset allocation towards Chinese markets [5]. - **Sector-Specific Trends**: - The banking sector experienced a net outflow exceeding 200 billion HKD, while the retail sector saw a net outflow of approximately 180 billion HKD from 2024 to April 2025 [8]. - The biopharmaceutical sector saw long-term investments increase by 6.8 billion HKD but faced short-term reductions of 18 billion HKD, resulting in a net decrease of 11.2 billion HKD [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Hong Kong stock market, foreign capital trends, and sector-specific insights.

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices continued to rise. Concerns about the Fed's independence boosted risk - aversion sentiment, and the release of the US July PCE data further strengthened the market's interest - rate cut expectation. COMEX gold futures approached the historical high, and international silver prices reached a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy remains resilient, but under Trump's pressure, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed support for interest - rate cuts, and the market expects a more than 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Market doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, while silver prices are expected to be stronger in the short term [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 785.12 | 11.72 | 1.52 | 136691 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 781.70 | 4.87 | 0.63 | 27326 | 201542 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3516.10 | 98.90 | 2.89 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9386 | 194 | 2.11 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9365 | 54 | 0.58 | 409046 | 3444504 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 40.75 | 1.87 | 4.81 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices rose last week. The US July PCE data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, pushing up gold and silver prices. COMEX gold futures neared the historical high, and silver prices hit a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy shows resilience, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is increasing due to Trump's pressure. Many Fed officials support interest - rate cuts, and the market expects an over 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, and short - term silver prices are expected to be stronger [3][7]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the Q2 core PCE price index was 2.5%, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [10]. - The US July PCE price index was 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the month - on - month growth was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%. The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, in line with expectations [10]. - US personal spending in July 2025 increased 0.5% month - on - month to $20.802 trillion, accelerating from the revised 0.4% in June and in line with market expectations [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, and the number of continued claims dropped to 1.954 million, both lower than expected [10]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 29, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 977.68 tons, an increase of 20.91 tons from last week; the silver holdings of ishare were 15310.00 tons, an increase of 21.18 tons from last week [11]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on August 26, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 275767, non - commercial short positions were 61456, and non - commercial net long positions were 214311, an increase of 1721 from last week. For silver futures on the same day, non - commercial long positions were 68227, non - commercial short positions were 21761, and non - commercial net long positions were 46466, a decrease of 83 from last week [14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，利好金价，关注震 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 荡区间技术压力 | | 铜 | 2510 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 海外降息预期升温，国内临近旺 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 季，产业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and political uncertainties, with prices breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - From August 25 to August 29, gold prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.86% to close at $3,516.10 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) saw a weekly increase of 1.47%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) surged by 8.38% [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - U.S. economic data released in August was disappointing, raising concerns about stagflation [1] - The U.S. July CPI remained flat at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3% and marking the highest level since February [1] - The U.S. July PPI surged to 3.3%, the highest level since February, significantly above the expected 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the largest since June 2022 [1] - The overall PCE price index for July increased by 2.6%, meeting expectations, while the core PCE price index rose to 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from June, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from a U.S. bank predict that gold prices will continue to rise, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the first half of 2026 [1] - The analysts noted that increasing inflation and potential interest rate cuts create a favorable environment for dollar depreciation, which is likely to drive up gold prices [1]