1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, most prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures declined, with the main contract EC2604 closing down 4.57%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1657.94, down 134.2 points from last week, a 7.5% week - on - week decline [2] - The cancellation of full - tax refunds for photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush for shipping, which will boost long - term contract cargo volume. However, after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the increase brought by the news will be reversed [2] - China's foreign trade level in December 2025 rebounded unexpectedly, with both imports and exports improving significantly, possibly related to the cancellation of value - added tax export rebates for some commodities and pre - holiday rush exports. China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [2] - Although some shipping companies have announced price increases for Asia - to - Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean routes, due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern, the implementation may fall short of expectations [2] - The resumption of the IMX/ME11 route in the Red Sea Canal by Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd has actual execution risks, and the actual effect remains to be seen [2] - The market is optimistic about the economic recovery of the eurozone, and inflation is approaching the target level, supporting the expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [2] - The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1177.900, down 17.0; EC second - main contract closing price: 1501, down 14.10 [2] - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 323.10, down 2.30; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 403.10, down 5.80 [2] - EC contract basis: + 1.10, at 480.04 [2] - EC main contract open interest: 33027 lots, down 872 [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1657.94, down 134.20; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1,155.66, up 54.26 [2] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1266.56, down 50.19; Container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs): 1,227.97, down 0.10 [2] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1122.15, down 53.44; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1,535.03, down 39.66 [2] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1882.00, up 13.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1,670.00, down 22.00 [2] - Average charter price of Panamax ships: 0.00, unchanged; Average charter price of Capesize ships: 18,955.00, down 750.00 [2] 3.3 Industry News - US President Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if negotiations with Iran fail. The second round of US - Iran talks is expected to be held next week [2] - Fed officials Logan and Hamark believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to neutral and may remain unchanged for a long time if inflation falls and the labor market stabilizes [2] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and conduct regular treasury bond trading operations [2] 3.4 Key Data to Watch - UK Q4 GDP annual rate preliminary value at 15:00 on February 12 [2] - UK December manufacturing output monthly rate at 15:00 on February 12 [2] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 (in 10,000 people) at 21:30 on February 12 [2]

Economic Environment - The external environment has worsened, with increased trade barriers and deepening impacts on global economic prospects, leading to uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments[2] - Domestic economic performance is stable but faces challenges such as strong supply and weak demand, despite achieving new results in high-quality development[2] Monetary Policy Changes - The fourth quarter report emphasizes "promoting economic stability" alongside "reasonable price recovery" as key considerations for monetary policy[2] - There is a shift towards more proactive monetary policy tools, explicitly mentioning the flexible and efficient use of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[2] Domestic Focus - The report highlights the importance of strengthening the domestic circulation, marking it as a priority for economic stability in 2026[2] - The focus on supporting the "14th Five-Year Plan" for a good start is emphasized, indicating a strategic alignment with national development goals[2] Financial Support and Risk Management - The report stresses the need for financial support in key areas such as technology innovation and small and micro enterprises, while reducing emphasis on boosting consumption and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - There is an increased focus on enhancing the macro-prudential management and financial stability toolbox to prevent systemic financial risks[2] Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth momentum is expected to be insufficient in 2026, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, which may lead to rising input inflation in China[2] - The report suggests that China will play a stabilizing role in global economic growth, benefiting from its predictable policy environment and medium-to-high growth potential[2]

沪镍产业日报 2026-02-11 增长，现货升水下调。技术面，持仓持稳价格调整，市场情绪平淡。观点参考：预计短线沪镍震荡调整， 免责声明 关注14关口争夺。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 139360 | 6010 03-04月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -300 | -70 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17550 | 140 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 76440 | -3802 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of ferronickel will face reduction pressure due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines, declining nickel ore grade, and a significant cut in Indonesia's RKAB plan next year [2] - The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the rising ferronickel price has increased the cost support, and the increase in production is limited due to more year - end steel mill overhauls [2] - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, but stainless - steel exports still maintain high growth, showing strong export demand resilience. With the approaching Spring Festival, the trading atmosphere is calming down, and the national stainless - steel social inventory has entered a seasonal accumulation phase [2] - Technically, with the reduction of positions and price adjustment, both long and short positions are trading cautiously. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the range of 13,700 - 14,400 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of stainless steel is 14,040 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 8,958 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,618 lots; the position of the main contract is 32,627 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,794 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 54,551 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 421 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,350 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 530 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, with a decrease of 700 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, with an increase of 100,700 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 142,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,650 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) in the country is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, with a decrease of 14,500 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 557,200 tons, with an increase of 8,200 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units; the monthly output of excavators is 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 3,700 units and 1,000 units respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China's fourth - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, conduct regular treasury bond trading operations, and strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [2] - US retail sales in December were weaker than in November (which had a 0.6% month - on - month increase) and also fell short of Wall Street's expected 0.4% month - on - month increase [2]

稳预期（外部）、稳就业（内部）、稳市场（金融）将是观察全面降息可能落地的主线。 日前，央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告（下称《报告》）。在货币政策方面，表述延续 中央经济工作会议的定调，强调"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"。但与三季度报告内容相比， 一些表述的微调仍引起市场的关注。 综合市场分析来看，货币政策与财政政策需不断加强协同配合，引导社会资本参与促消费、扩投资，共 同支持稳增长、调结构，合力推动经济高质量发展。货币政策在总量层面相对从容，或继续在结构上发 力，全面降息仍需等待时机，稳预期（外部）、稳就业（内部）、稳市场（金融）将是观察全面降息可 能落地的主线。 第二种模式是把央行再贷款工具与财政贴息政策结合起来，再贷款通过激励金融机构，从供给端引导信 贷投向，财政贴息通过补贴企业和个人，从需求端优化经济结构，两者同向发力，促进金融资源优化配 置。科技创新和技术改造再贷款、新设的民营企业再贷款、以及服务消费与养老再贷款都是这方面的典 型案例。 银河证券研究报告认为，这意味着结构性货币政策工具的创设、优化实施，结构性降息将和财政贴息成 为政策组合工具。未来结构性货币政策工具将成为央行投 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the use of various tools to ensure ample liquidity in the market [2][7] - The report indicates a focus on "precision drip irrigation" in policy implementation, suggesting a reduced probability of short-term interest rate cuts [1][2] - The PBOC plans to normalize government bond trading operations, which is aimed at improving liquidity management and policy coordination rather than large-scale quantitative easing [2][7] Economic Indicators - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 0.8% year-on-year [2][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, indicating a marginal improvement in industrial production and consumer demand [2][8] Low-altitude Economy Development - A new policy document aims to enhance the capabilities of the information and communication industry to support low-altitude infrastructure development, targeting a 90% coverage of ground mobile communication networks by 2027 [3][9] - This initiative marks a significant step towards the industrialization of the low-altitude economy, providing clear quantitative goals and implementation paths [4][9] Market Performance - As of February 11, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index down by 1.08% [5][10] - The market turnover was approximately 20,012.02 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous trading day [6][11]

Economic Outlook - The central bank is optimistic about domestic economic growth in 2026, indicating conditions for sustained improvement[2] - The report highlights positive changes in price levels, with a focus on supporting reasonable price recovery[3] - The domestic economy is described as maintaining a steady and progressive trend, with major development goals achieved in 2025[3] Monetary Policy - The central bank aims to stabilize short-term interest rates and may introduce corresponding policy tools[2] - Interest rate cuts will require careful timing, with attention to the impact of the continuously appreciating exchange rate on monetary policy adjustments[2] - The report emphasizes the need for coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, addressing liquidity concerns in the "big asset management" sector[2][6] Market Implications - Overall liquidity is expected to remain sufficient, which is favorable for domestic equity and bond markets[6] - The report suggests that liquidity friction within the asset management industry is recognized and will be managed through monetary policy[7] - The central bank's cautious approach to using total monetary policy tools reflects a balance between supporting growth and managing risks[5]

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing more on domestic priorities rather than external influences[2] - A total reduction of 25-50 basis points (BP) in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and a 10 BP interest rate cut are anticipated in 2026, with a gradual implementation pace expected[3] Fiscal and Financial Coordination - The PBOC outlines three main paths for fiscal and monetary policy coordination: maintaining ample market liquidity, utilizing re-lending and fiscal subsidies, and risk-sharing mechanisms[4] - Key areas of focus for fiscal and financial collaboration include technology innovation, support for small and micro enterprises, and boosting consumption through targeted lending and subsidies[4] Green Finance Development - The PBOC shifts its focus in green finance from merely increasing scale to strengthening mechanisms, with a unified standard system for green loans, bonds, and insurance being a priority[8] - The establishment of evaluation metrics that incorporate carbon accounting and information disclosure is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of green finance initiatives[8] Liquidity Analysis - The total assets of asset management products reached approximately 120 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, indicating a shift in liquidity dynamics within the financial system[10] - The increase in asset management products does not equate to a decrease in overall liquidity but reflects a reallocation of funds within the financial system[10] Credit Restoration Initiatives - A new policy for credit restoration allows for the removal of overdue information for specific personal loans under 10,000 yuan, aiming to enhance consumer financing accessibility[11] - This initiative is designed to improve the creditworthiness of individuals and facilitate better credit allocation by financial institutions[12]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article revolves around the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) monetary policy adjustments and their implications for the economy, focusing on stabilizing short-term interest rates, promoting low financing costs, and leveraging exchange rates as automatic stabilizers for macroeconomic balance [5][6][10]. Group 1: Short-term Interest Rates - The PBOC aims to guide short-term money market rates to operate smoothly around the central bank's policy rates, specifically targeting DR001 and DR007, with a stable operation range defined as 20 basis points below and 50 basis points above the 7-day reverse repo rate [1][6]. - The report indicates that the key interest rates like DR001 and DR007 are expected to operate within a corridor of 70 basis points, which is considered acceptable by the central bank [1][6]. Group 2: Financing Costs - The PBOC emphasizes the need to maintain low comprehensive financing costs for society, suggesting that current financing costs are already at a relatively acceptable low level, making further rate cuts less likely without stronger triggers [2][8]. - The focus remains on stabilizing and expanding bank interest margins while ensuring sufficient liquidity for the banking system, indicating a low probability of significant increases in short-term rates like interbank certificates of deposit [2][8]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Stabilization - The PBOC calls for the exchange rate to function as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments, highlighting its role in adjusting trade conditions and absorbing external policy impacts [3][10]. - Emphasizing the need for exchange rate flexibility, the PBOC aims to maintain a balance between internal and external economic conditions, which requires a certain degree of exchange rate elasticity [3][10]. Group 4: Response to Deposit Migration - The PBOC addresses the issue of "deposit migration," noting that as direct financing develops and financing channels diversify, the allocation of household savings between bank deposits and other financial assets will become more varied [4][11]. - The central bank emphasizes that while this diversification may affect the structure of bank liabilities, it does not necessarily lead to significant changes in the overall liquidity of the financial system [4][11].

Core Insights - The December 2025 retail sales data in the U.S. indicates a significant slowdown in consumer spending momentum at year-end, with retail sales showing a month-on-month growth of 0%, a sharp decline from the previous month's 0.6% increase, and below the market expectation of 0.4% growth [1][3] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales showed a month-on-month stagnation, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending, a key driver of U.S. economic growth [1][3] - Year-on-year retail sales growth was recorded at 2.4%, which is lower than the consumer price index's year-on-year increase of 2.7%, suggesting that real consumption growth may have stalled [3][4] Group 2: Sectoral Analysis - There is a divergence in consumer spending, with categories such as automobiles, furniture, electronics, and clothing experiencing month-on-month declines, while categories like building materials, gasoline, and food and beverages saw growth [3][4] - High-income households may be supported by rising stock markets, but low-income groups, reliant on wage growth, are showing weaker spending performance [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the retail sales data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6 basis points to 4.14% and the 30-year yield down by 7 basis points to 4.78%, reflecting heightened expectations of economic slowdown and speculation about potential early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that a shift in monetary policy is not imminent, with concerns about persistent high inflation and cautious optimism regarding the current policy rate's ability to bring inflation back to the 2% target [4] - Future economic data will be crucial in determining the appropriateness of current policy positions, with potential rate cuts being considered only if inflation decreases alongside a significant weakening in the labor market [4] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The weak December retail data highlights the fragile foundation of the U.S. consumer recovery, particularly among middle and low-income groups [4] - The combination of high inflation and a labor market that has not yet shown significant cooling will keep the Federal Reserve's policy path highly dependent on subsequent economic data [4]