中国消费增长的潜在方向不仅来自边际消费倾向的提升空间，也来自服务消费扩容与下沉市场的结构性机遇。 在"以提振消费为重点全方位扩大内需"的框架下，消费已成为中国经济的主要驱动力。2024年，中国居民最终消费占GDP比重约40%，居民边际消费倾向约 为66%，显著低于主要发达经济体。因此，厘清中国消费规模增长的潜在路径，对当前宏观政策导向具有十分重要的现实意义。 根据理论数值估算，在当前居民边际消费倾向为66%的基础上，2025~2029年若边际消费倾向逐步提升至70%，则可新增7.1万亿元的消费规模。进一步从消 费结构出发，若服务消费占比提升至约53%，则5年内可较基准情景新增14.9万亿元的消费需求。若农村居民收入增速在历史平均水平基础上提高2个百分 点，则可新增3.5万亿元的消费需求。 理论估算显示，中国消费增长的潜在方向不仅来自边际消费倾向的提升空间，也来自服务消费扩容与下沉市场的结构性机遇。若能通过"提高消费倾向、重 构消费结构、激活消费群体"三方面协同推进，未来5年理论上可新增约25.5万亿元的消费规模。考虑不同因素之间的潜在替代效应，这一估算仍属理论上 限，实际空间可能需动态修正。 边际空间：边际消 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a training session on July 14 for securities companies, attended by over 330 compliance, risk control, brokerage, and technical personnel from 120 securities firms [1] - The training aims to help securities companies understand the overall ideas and main content of the "1+6" reform policies and supporting rules of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in a timely and accurate manner [1] - The initiative is designed to guide securities companies in enhancing their professional service capabilities and practice quality, actively participating in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reforms, and fully supporting technological innovation and the development of new productive forces [1]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Securities Information Co., Ltd. announced revisions to the compilation method of the ChiNext Composite Index, introducing a monthly removal mechanism for stocks under risk warning and an ESG negative removal mechanism for stocks rated C or below [1] - After the revisions, the ChiNext Composite Index includes 1,316 sample stocks, covering 95% of ChiNext listed companies and 98% of total market capitalization, with high-tech enterprises accounting for 92% and strategic emerging industries for 79% [1] - The revised index is expected to have greater long-term investment value, as it encompasses a wide range of stocks, including leading companies and those with significant growth potential, reflecting a more elastic characteristic [1] Group 2 - The Invesco Great Wall ChiNext Composite Index Enhanced Fund has achieved a net value growth rate of 68.33% since its establishment on May 25, 2020, significantly outperforming the ChiNext Index (6.99%) and the ChiNext Composite Index (32.85%) [2] - The AI industry trend is seen as a supportive factor for the ChiNext Composite Index, alongside anticipated regulatory measures aimed at deepening reforms in the ChiNext market to provide better institutional support for innovation and growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing pressure from weak demand and high costs, leading to a focus on policy-driven capacity optimization to alleviate profitability issues [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index has rebounded by 11.86% since June 23, while the Wind All A Index increased by 6.53% during the same period [1]. - In July, the Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index rose by 9.31%, marking the largest monthly increase since October 2024, with 21 stocks in the steel sector rising over 10% [4]. Group 2: Company Earnings Forecasts - Eight steel companies have released their mid-year earnings forecasts, with Shougang Co. expecting a net profit of 642 to 672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62% to 70.22% [3]. - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of 12.71 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 98.1 million yuan [2]. - Fushun Special Steel and Hangang Co. are expected to report losses, with Fushun projecting a loss of 260 to 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 214.06% to 231.6% [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The steel industry has been in a downward cycle for four years, with approximately 30% of steel companies still reporting losses as of the latest financial reports [5]. - The demand for steel, particularly from the real estate sector, has significantly declined, with demand dropping from 377 million tons in March 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 42.9% [5]. - The focus on cost reduction has become prevalent among steel companies, with raw material prices significantly impacting profitability [5]. Group 4: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent central government meetings have emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacity, strengthening expectations for supply contraction in the steel industry [4][6]. - The current round of "anti-involution" policies aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on differentiated control of production based on efficiency and environmental standards [6].

Core Viewpoint - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has released the "2024 National Medical Security Development Statistical Bulletin," indicating a stable growth in basic medical insurance coverage and a focus on improving service quality and fund management [2][4]. Group 1: Basic Medical Insurance Coverage - As of the end of 2024, approximately 1.327 billion people are enrolled in basic medical insurance in China, maintaining a coverage rate of 95% [4][5]. - The number of employees covered by medical insurance has increased to 379 million, reflecting a 2.3% growth compared to the previous year [5]. Group 2: Fund Revenue and Expenditure - The total revenue and expenditure of the national basic medical insurance fund (including maternity insurance) for 2024 are projected to be approximately CNY 3.49 trillion and CNY 2.98 trillion, respectively [4]. - The employee medical insurance fund revenue is estimated at CNY 2.373 trillion, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, while expenditures are expected to reach CNY 1.910 trillion, marking a 7.6% increase [7][11]. Group 3: Medical Treatment and Benefits - The number of treatment beneficiaries under employee medical insurance is projected to reach 5.308 billion in 2024, a 9.9% increase from the previous year [13]. - The average hospitalization cost for employee medical insurance participants is estimated at CNY 11,707, with varying costs across different levels of medical institutions [15][18]. Group 4: Resident Medical Insurance - By the end of 2024, the number of participants in urban and rural resident medical insurance is expected to reach approximately 947 million [20]. - The revenue for resident medical insurance is projected to be CNY 1.118 trillion, with expenditures of CNY 1.066 trillion, resulting in a cumulative balance of CNY 818.3 billion [21]. Group 5: Maternity Insurance - The number of participants in maternity insurance is expected to reach 25.3 million in 2024, with a 30.2% increase in the number of beneficiaries enjoying maternity benefits [32]. - Maternity insurance fund expenditures are projected to be CNY 140.293 billion, reflecting a 19.2% increase from the previous year [32]. Group 6: Medical Assistance - In 2024, medical assistance expenditures are expected to reach CNY 79.232 billion, providing support to approximately 79.16 million people participating in basic medical insurance [34]. - The average assistance for hospitalization and outpatient services is projected to be CNY 1,254 and CNY 92, respectively [34]. Group 7: Drug and Medical Supply Management - The 2024 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List includes 3,159 drugs, with 91 new additions this year [38]. - The implementation of centralized procurement for drugs and high-value medical consumables continues, with 62 drugs included in the latest round of procurement [43]. Group 8: Cross-Region Medical Services - In 2024, the total number of cross-region medical visits is expected to reach 397 million, with associated costs of CNY 786.774 billion [44]. - Employee medical insurance accounts for 262 million of these visits, while resident medical insurance accounts for 134 million [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

Core Insights - The inspection and testing industry in China is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2024, with an optimized sector structure and a significant trend towards centralization and specialization [1][2] Group 1: Market Overview - By the end of 2024, there will be 53,057 inspection and testing institutions in China, a decrease of 1.44% year-on-year. The total revenue for the year is projected to be 487.597 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.41% [1] - The average revenue per institution and per employee has increased by 5.94% and 5.20%, respectively, indicating a trend of quality improvement despite a reduction in the number of institutions [1][2] Group 2: Institutional Structure - Among the institutions, 41,280 are enterprise-based, accounting for 77.80% of the total, while 10,090 are public institutions, making up 19.02%. Private institutions number 33,892, representing 63.88% of the total, showcasing a diversified development pattern [1] - Institutions with revenues exceeding 100 million yuan contribute 81.24% of the industry's total revenue, with 769 institutions generating over 1 billion yuan, an increase of 84 institutions from the previous year [2] Group 3: Regional Distribution - By the end of 2024, the eastern region will account for 42.29% of the total number of institutions and 61.86% of the revenue, while the western region will have 28.76% of the institutions and 19.80% of the revenue [2] - The Yangtze River Delta region has 9,242 institutions, contributing 139.383 billion yuan, which is 28.59% of the total revenue, highlighting the significant revenue concentration in this area [2] Group 4: Economic Correlation - There is a notable correlation between the scale and revenue of inspection and testing institutions and regional economic development, particularly in areas with a high concentration of manufacturing [3]

| [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张河生 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523100004 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《关注供给侧改革预期升温带来的投资机 会》 ——2025 年 07月 07日 《关注经贸协议最终落地情况》 ——2025 年 07月 01日 《中东地缘冲突再升级，资本市场短期受 影响》 ——2025 年 06月 25日 A 股投资者风险偏好有望保持高位 ——固收&宏观周报（20250707-20250713） [Table_I 日期 ndustry] : shzqdatemark 2025年07月14日 [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 美股下跌，纳斯达克中国科技股与恒生指数上涨。 过去一周（20250707-20250713），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与道 琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-0.08%、-0.31%与-1.02%，纳斯达克中国 科技股指数变化 1.83%；同时期恒生指数变化 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Market performance: Last Friday, precious metal prices rose, and silver prices soared due to expectations of additional tariffs [1]. - Fundamental factors: China and the US foreign ministers met in Kuala Lumpur, agreeing to strengthen communication and dialogue. Trump announced a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. Fed Chairman Powell might consider resigning. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in various locations changed [1]. - Trading strategy: For gold, considering the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to go long. For silver, short - term risk - avoidance is advised with long positions closed, but in the long - term, industrial silver use is turning downward [1]. Group 2: Base Metals Copper - Market performance: On Friday, copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - Fundamental factors: Trump unexpectedly increased tariffs on most countries, leading to lower market risk appetite. After the proposed 50% tariff on copper on August 1st, London and domestic inventories increased. The long - term copper price has upward momentum due to the tight copper mine situation and global fiscal expansion expectations [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with an increase in weekly operating capacity. Demand - side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: The domestic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, supporting the price. However, due to macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 2.83% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, alumina plants' production was stable. Demand - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Some northern alumina plants are in the maintenance period, causing a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended to operate within a range and partially close long positions [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Thursday, the main 09 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 13,427 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rebounded due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. Supply - side, Yunnan contributed a small increase in start - up. Demand - side, polysilicon start - up was stable, organic silicon production was stable, and the aluminum alloy downstream was in the off - season [3]. - Trading strategy: After the futures price rebound, different cost manufacturers will gradually hedge. There is an expectation of increased start - up, but short - term support exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: On Friday, the main LC2509 contract closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the expected production in July increased by 3.92% month - on - month. Demand - side, the downstream production plan increased marginally, but inventory continued to reach new highs [3]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell the far - month LC2511 contract at high levels [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Friday, the main 08 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 12,676 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rose significantly due to "anti - involution" expectations. Supply - side, production increased slightly, and there is a复产 expectation. Demand - side, the production plan of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased in July [3]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the progress of leading enterprises in solving supply - demand imbalances and the actual procurement price in the silicon wafer market next week. Partially close long positions [3]. Tin - Market performance: On Friday, tin prices oscillated [3]. - Fundamental factors: Trump's additional tariffs slightly suppressed risk appetite. Supply - side, the tin mine situation remained tight, but the复产 expectation pressured the price. Demand - side, downstream procurement was on - demand, and global weekly inventory decreased [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation - within - a - range approach [3]. Group 3: Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar oscillated weakly, closing at 3,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of building materials were both weak, but low production reduced inventory pressure. The supply and demand of steel were balanced. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will have a significant impact this week [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB10 is 3,100 - 3,160 [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated strongly, closing at 764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of iron ore were neutral. Steel mill profits expanded marginally, and production will remain stable. Supply followed the seasonal pattern. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will be important this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. Layout a long position in the 2605 coil - to - ore ratio. The reference range for I09 is 750 - 780 [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal oscillated strongly, closing at 921.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: Iron production decreased slightly, and steel mill profits expanded. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the first round of price increases is being discussed. Supply - side inventory is differentiated. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will matter this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for JM09 is 890 - 930 [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to a slightly bearish USDA report [5]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the near - term international supply is loose, and the long - term is expected to be loose. Demand - side, South America is dominant in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US soybean production and tariff policies [5]. - Trading strategy: Short - term, US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost. Pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract of corn continued to decline, and the spot price also fell [5][6]. - Fundamental factors: This year's supply - demand is tightening marginally. Substitute imports decreased, but wheat substitution and import grain auctions affect the price. The spot price is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the low auction turnover rate of imported corn [6]. Sugar - Market performance: ICE raw sugar 10 contract had a weekly increase of 1.85%, and Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract had a weekly increase of 0.21% [6]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic commodity market sentiment was good, and domestic and international markets rebounded together. Import sugar arrivals are increasing, and the 09 contract is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: In the futures market, go short at high levels; in the options market, sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market performance: Last Friday, US cotton prices oscillated and fell. Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: International data adjustments had little impact. Market sentiment was bearish. Domestically, low commercial inventories were concerned, but downstream start - up rates decreased and product inventories increased [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Recently, palm oil has been strong, and the trading center has shifted upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, production in the producing areas weakened marginally. Demand - side, exports decreased month - on - month, but there is support in annual demand [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, P is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to overweight in the sector, and the annual supply is expected to be tight. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price increased [6]. - Fundamental factors: Farmers are in losses, and old hen culling is expected to decrease. Supply is high, and demand is affected by price and weather. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to sufficient supply and cost support [6]. Hogs - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price had a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - Fundamental factors: Consumption is seasonally weak, slaughterhouses are reducing losses, and supply is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the medium - term [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust due to weak demand [6]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract had a weekly increase of 0.49%. Apple prices in Shandong were stable [6][7]. - Fundamental factors: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples increased. There are differences in this year's production. Current consumption is weak, and the market has few contradictions [7]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [7]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in North China was 7,200 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, new plants were put into operation, and domestic supply increased. Import is expected to decrease. Demand - side, it is the end of the off - season for agricultural film [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [7]. PVC - Market performance: The v09 contract closed at 4,980, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is expected to increase, and social inventory is accumulating. Wait for the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see as the rebound lacks momentum [7]. PTA - Market performance: PX CFR China price was 837 US dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4,710 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental factors: PX supply is low, and PTA supply is increasing. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX, look for short - term positive spread opportunities in PTA, and short - sell processing fees in the long - term [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1,086, an increase of 2% [7][8]. - Fundamental factors: Spot sales improved, supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The downstream situation is not good, and the valuation is complex [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [8]. PP - Market performance: On Friday, the main PP contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,100 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The export situation of downstream products is worthy of attention [8]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate weakly. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [8]. MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 4,384 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is at a high level, and inventory is at a low level. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is balanced [8]. - Trading strategy: MEG is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Last week, oil prices oscillated strongly due to low inventory and stable demand [8]. - Fundamental factors: US gasoline demand was stable. OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries will increase production, and the market is expected to be oversupplied, especially in the fourth quarter [8]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to inventory accumulation and short - sell at high levels [8]. EB - Market performance: On Friday, the main EB contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,730 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8][9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, pure benzene and styrene inventories have different trends. Demand - side, downstream profits are poor, and product inventory is high. Export demand is a key factor [8][9]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract closed at 1,214, a decrease of 0.9% [9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply increased as a plant resumed production, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell at high levels as the fundamentals are weak [9].

| 五、宏观信息 | | | --- | --- | | 上交所发布《科创板上市公司自律监管指引第5号-科创成长层》。上交所相关负责人答记者问表示，这次改革没有针对未盈利企业纳入科创成长层设置额外的 | 上市门槛，存量32家未盈利企业将自指引发布实施之日起进入科创成长层，新注册的未盈利企业将自上市之日起进入。本次改革没有对个人投资者参与科创成 | | 长层股票交易新增投资交易门槛，仍为具备"50万元资产+2年经验"的资金门槛和投资经验即可。投资者投资科创成长层新注册的未盈利科技型企业之前需要 | | | 。科创成长层企业按照规定发布符合调出条件的公告后，上交所原则上在2个交易日内将企业调出。 | 签署专门风险揭示书。科创成长层调出条件实施"新老划断"。存量企业调出条件保持不变，仍为上市后首次实现盈利，同时提高新注册未盈利企业调出条件 | | 外交部长王毅在北京会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。王毅表示，上合组织是开展全面战略协作、倡导多边主义、加强务实合作、增进全球南方团结的重要平台。中 方现任轮值主席国，我们愿同俄方及其它成员国共同筹备好天津峰会，规划未来发展方向，赋能各领域合作，推动上合组织建设迈上新台阶。 | | ...