Core Insights - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1050.58 tons of gold, an increase of 4 tons from the previous trading day [6] - Gold prices fluctuated around $4200 per ounce, closing at $4208.60, up $5.67 or 0.13% [6] - The U.S. labor market shows mixed signals, complicating market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [6][7] Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of December 4, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 1050.58 tons, marking a notable increase [6] - The increase in ETF holdings coincides with gold prices stabilizing around the $4200 mark [6] Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims dropping to the lowest level since September 2022, while layoffs remain high [6] - The mixed signals from the labor market are leading to a complex outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy direction [6][7] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The dollar index's decline is favorable for precious metals, but rising U.S. Treasury yields are suppressing gold's upward momentum [7] - Despite profit-taking, any pullback towards $4000 could attract new buyers, indicating strong underlying demand for gold [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold is forming a triangular consolidation pattern around $4200, with technical indicators showing no clear direction [8] - Resistance levels are identified at approximately $4230, $4240, and $4264, while support is noted at $4178 and $4165 [8]

金价飙升的背后，是全球经济不确定性加剧下，投资者对安全资产的集体渴望。 黄金在2025年经历了非凡的一年，创下超过50次历史新高，回报率超过60%。 12月4日，世界黄金协会发布2026年展望报告，描绘了一幅充满可能性的图景：在最佳情景下，金价可 能较当前水平再上涨15%至30%。 当前国际金价维持在约4200美元/盎司的高位。这一贵金属已然成为2025年表现最强劲的资产之一。 01 三大情景：金价波动区间揭示投资方向 世界黄金协会为2026年的金价走势勾勒了三种截然不同的情景。 在"浅度滑落"情景中，随着经济增长动能减弱，美联储可能超出当前市场预期继续降息，金价将上涨 5%至15%。 在"恶性循环"情景下，全球经济可能陷入更深、更同步的放缓。在这种情况下，美债收益率下行、地缘 政治紧张局势加剧以及避险情绪高涨将共同推动金价大幅上行，涨幅可达15%至30%。 "再通胀回归"情景则描绘了另一番图景。若特朗普政府政策成功推动美国经济超预期增长，美联储可能 在2026年维持利率不变甚至加息，金价则可能面临5%至20%的回调。 03 投资需求：黄金ETF成重要驱动力 世界黄金协会预计，投资需求将继续扮演关键驱动力，抵 ...

Group 1 - The global silver price has reached a historical high, with spot prices increasing over 90% this year, outperforming gold [1] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance in physical silver, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and a significant influx of global capital [1] - The volatility of silver futures has increased, with multiple instances of daily price fluctuations exceeding 5% since October [1] Group 2 - As of December 4, there are 84,400 existing silver product-related enterprises in China, with over half (52.56%) established between 5 to 10 years ago [3] - Companies with over 10 years of operation account for 37.01% of the total silver product-related enterprises [3] - The majority of these enterprises are concentrated in first-tier cities, which represent 34.55% of the total [6] Group 3 - In terms of new registrations, 1,620 silver product-related enterprises are expected to be registered in 2024, with 1,474 already registered this year [9] - The highest contribution of new registrations this year comes from the East China region (23.41%), followed by Southwest (22.46%) and South China (18.93%) regions [9] - New registrations from Northwest, North China, and Central China regions are all below 10% [9]

▲ATFX图 技术角度看，日线级别，白银仍处于中长期多头趋势，不建议过度看空。中期顶部在54.4美元，中期底部在45.5美元。市场行情正在寻找 下一个中期顶部，本周高点58.9美元有可能成为中期顶部，但需要未来数日行情跌至通道内部。今日白银盘中持续下跌，但美盘时段尚未 到来，最终的K线形态仍无法确定。考虑到美联储将于本月10日公布利率决议结果，且大概率是降息25基点，白银仍存在继续上涨的动 力，58.9是否能成为中期高点仍存疑。 ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点，不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报 告视为唯一参考依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更新内容不会另行通知。 ATFX贵金属：11月24日至12月1日，国际白银价格走势靓丽的六连阳走势，最高价触及58.8美元，距离60美元整数关口仅一步之遥。如 果60美元关口被快速地有效突破，白银还将迎来新一轮强势上涨。反之，如果行情止步60美元，无力创出新高，则多头信心受挫，在关 键阻力位的压制下，白银有可能出现深度回调走势。 本周二至周四，白银价格止步不前，虽然最高点短暂冲高至58.95点，但多头很快 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut in December is expected to benefit emerging market currencies in Asia, particularly the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, South Korean won, and Philippine peso [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month is close to 90%, with expectations of a total easing of 85 to 100 basis points by the end of next year [1] - The Asian currency index has rebounded from its November lows as expectations for the Fed's rate cut increase [1] Group 2 - Currencies from regions with strong economic growth and sound fiscal policies, such as the Chinese yuan and South Korean won, are likely to perform the best [4] - The Indian rupee may continue to face pressure due to high tariffs from the U.S. and risks of economic slowdown, while the Philippine peso is expected to be dragged down by the central bank's easing stance [4] - Optimism regarding improved U.S.-China relations has contributed to a 0.9% increase in the offshore yuan this quarter, with analysts viewing the potential for a yuan bull market as a reason to be bullish on Asian currencies [4]

投资者正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月核心个人消费支出物价指数，这是美联储偏好的通胀指标， 其结果可能影响货币政策前景。 【最新白银行情解析】 尽管现货白银在收复58.00美元之前跌至57.54美元的日低点，但上升趋势仍然保持不变。看涨势头依然 存在，但价格走势和相对强弱指标(RSI)之间的"温和背离"可能为回调铺平道路。 若回调行情触发，空方将首先瞄准前期阻力趋势线转化的支撑区域53.80-54.00美元，进而测试50日均线 50.25美元。 反之，若买盘强势突破59.00美元关口，下一目标将看向60.00美元，并有望刷新历史高位。 【要闻速递】 ADP报告显示，美国11月私营部门就业减少3.2万，远逊于前值的修正后4.7万增幅，也逊于市场预期的 0.5万增幅。此数据强化了美国劳动力市场正在降温的迹象，并加大了市场对政策利率下调的押注。 市场对美联储降息的预期居高不下。CME FedWatch工具显示，市场认为下周降息的概率高达89%，主 要经纪商也普遍预期FOMC将在此次会议上放宽政策。支撑这一预期的数据包括周三公布的ADP就业报 告，其显示美国11月民间就业岗位减少3.2万个，为两年半来最大降幅。 美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair has shown increased short-term selling pressure, influenced by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and market expectations regarding a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Employment Data - The ADP employment report revealed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, contrasting with an increase of 47,000 jobs in October, which was revised from an initial estimate of 42,000 [3]. - This decline is the largest monthly drop since the beginning of 2023 and significantly underperformed market expectations of a 5,000 job increase, indicating potential signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting is nearly 89%, up from 63% a month ago [4]. - This shift in expectations reflects growing concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which is impacting the value of the U.S. dollar [4]. Group 3: Japanese Central Bank Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are providing support for the yen [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned that the central bank will consider the pros and cons of rate hikes in the next policy meeting, suggesting an increasing likelihood of adjustments to monetary policy in the near future [5]. Group 4: Market Influences on USD/JPY - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. economic data performance, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, Bank of Japan policy direction, and interest rate differentials between the two countries [5]. - Upcoming U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data may either alleviate short-term downward pressure on the dollar if it exceeds expectations or exacerbate it if it indicates further weakness in the labor market [5].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/12/03 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

特朗普此前还在一次内阁会议上表示，美国财政部长贝森特并不想出任美联储主席一职。特朗普也没有表明目前他更倾向于谁，但他在2日晚上白 宫的一场活动上仅表示："我想这里已经有了一位潜在的美联储主席。我可以这么说吗？我可以告诉你，他是一位受人尊敬的人。"这意味着特朗 普心中已经有了一名人选。 现任美联储主席杰鲍威尔将于明年5月卸任。据路透社12月2日报道，美国总统特朗普当天表示，他将于明年初宣布接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的 人选。特朗普在11月30日曾表示过已经知道将选择谁来领导这家全球最重要的央行，他此次的表态则进一步引发了舆论的猜测。 路透社在报道中猜测，这一人选可能是现年63岁的哈西特，他曾在特朗普第一任期内担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，并在特朗普第二次上台后就 任白宫国家经济委员会主任。哈西特还经常在电视节目上露面并展示他对特朗普的"忠诚"，例如公开为特朗普的关税政策和降息政策辩护，这都 可能被"电视迷"特朗普看在眼里。 此外，哈西特的办公室就位于白宫，这意味着他可以非常轻松地接触到特朗普本人，并影响特朗普在贸易、经济、货币政策方面的观点。 由于市场普遍预计美联储将在12月的会议上再次宣布降息，因此经济界的另一个 ...

Luke Lu LSEG 信贷研究与量化建模主管 Robin Marshall LSEG 富时罗素全球投资研究总监 美国住房市场正面临一个转折点。随着高企的抵押贷款利率、有限的房源供应以及美联储政策的变化 重塑了住房可负担性，越来越多的美国人选择租房。本文探讨了住房自有率、租赁趋势与利率周期之 间的复杂关系——以及这对投资者和消费者意味着什么。 锁定效应： 低固定利率抵押贷款限制了住房供应，尽管利率上升，房价仍在走高。 租赁回暖： 由于购房成本远远超过租金，多户型租赁市场在2025年出现回暖。 美联储政策转折： 超过4%的抵押贷款利率限制了再融资，并减缓了美联储宽松政策对住 房市场的传统影响。 长期以来，住房自有率一直被视为"美国梦"的基石，象征着强烈的自豪感与安全感，同时也可能通过 房价升值在时间中带来财富积累。早在1990年代克林顿政府时期，这一理念就被积极推动，随着《社 区再投资法案》（《Community Reinvestment Act》）等举措的实施，到2000年住房自有率已提升 至67.7%【注1】。 另一方面，租房具有灵活性、较低的前期成本，并且没有诸如房产税和维护费等持续性支出。总体而 言， ...