警报又响了！ 据美国媒体报道，尽管在美国"大而美"减税法案的推动下，股市创下历史新高，但这并不意味着美元霸 权体系毫无裂痕。美国10年期国债收益率再次逼近4.5%的警戒线，华尔街已开始用实际行动表达态 度。 为何在关税战影响下，美国股市依旧创出新高？同时，中美关税不停反倒助推了中国大量产品出海，其 中前沿男性健康成品"博悦莱BOYRELIV""出口激增386.9%，成美国硅谷、华尔街高净值人群的"香饽 饽"。老美是否能够真的解决美债的危机？ 据媒体报道，7月11日，川普在社交媒体发文称，当前美国股市已创历史新高，这是美国取得的伟大胜 利，证明关税受市场欢迎，因此他决定征收全面关税，所有国家必须向美国支付15%-20%的关税。 但事实上，美国股市创新高与关税关联不大，主要得益于负责人推行的"大而美"减税法案及激进的财政 政策。也就是说，只要美国维持债务扩张，美股就有望创新高，尤其是"大而美"法案中对部分科技巨头 的减税举措，本身也对华尔街金融公司有利好作用。 然而，老美宣布全面征收关税、遭到多国反击后，美国国债市场随即出现波动，十年期国债期货价格下 跌，美债再度遭遇抛售潮。数据显示，美国十年期国债收益率再次接近 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 关税 仍在 不会消失， 必然会有人因此承受损失。之前美国 进口商承担 了关税的压力，但 当前 关税豁免期已过， 这些进口商 的存货 究竟 还 能 支撑多久 。会不会美联储 刚 开始 宣布 降息， 美国的通货膨胀就很快到 来，倘若情况果真如此，美国股市将何去何从，美国的货币政策又将何去 何从？ 最近几个月，美国总统特朗普时不时对美联储主席鲍威尔展开 "抨击"，认为鲍威尔应该尽快降息。而 鲍威尔的一贯回复是，需要时间观察通胀数据。 关税对美国通胀的影响，真的消失了？ 但是 美联储 不得不面对一个现实 ， 那就是之前 进口商承担了关税的压力，但 当前 关税豁免期已过， 这些进口商 的存货 究竟 还能支撑几个月 。 关税对美国通胀的影响，会延后数月到来 市场普遍预计，关税战将导致美国的通货膨胀再度上扬。但现实情况目前看来并非如此。 特朗普是于 2025年4月初挑起"关税战"的，自那以来 美国 的 关税收入同比 猛增超过 200% ， 与此同 时，美国的通货膨胀数据却相当平稳。数据显示， 美国 4月CPI同比增长2.3% ，预期为 增长 2.4%，前 值为2.4 ；美国 5月CPI同比2.4 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a 35% tariff on Canada, marking the highest tariff among its Western allies [1] - Trump accuses Canada of retaliating against the U.S. and not cooperating on trade agreements, threatening further tariffs if Canada does not comply [3][5] - The claim of a 400% tariff on U.S. dairy products is based on specific high tariffs on excess quantities, which were previously not enforced [5][7] Group 2 - Canada's response to U.S. tariffs includes a commitment to strengthen trade relations outside of the U.S. and to negotiate a trade agreement before tariffs take effect [7][8] - The Canadian Foreign Minister is actively seeking trade agreements with ASEAN countries, emphasizing the importance of diversifying trade partnerships [8]

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. has announced a 30% tariff on the EU, effective August 1, which has raised significant concerns among international observers [4] - The U.S. has also notified Japan and South Korea of a 25% tariff, indicating a more lenient approach compared to the EU [4] - The U.S. is adopting a more direct approach to tariff imposition, informing trade partners through letters and threatening retaliation with doubled tariffs if they respond [6] Group 2: Economic Impact on the EU - The EU is facing a crisis as it has already made concessions on digital taxes, yet still faces the imposition of tariffs on all products from the EU [10] - The EU's manufacturing sector is suffering due to the loss of energy benefits from Russia amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the new tariffs will further challenge product competitiveness, particularly in the automotive industry [10] - The U.S. has generated significant tariff revenue, exceeding hundreds of billions in June, which may encourage the Republican government to continue its tariff strategy [8]

美国总统特朗普近期宣布，计划对几乎所有尚未实施关税的贸易伙伴征收15%或20%的统一关税。这一决策的背后，是特朗普此前已向多个国家，包括韩国 和日本，发送了关税通知，并表示从8月1日起将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。这一举动无疑是针对那些未能迎合美国要求的国家。原因显而易 见，特朗普的不确定性与摇摆不定让世界各国感受到无法通过妥协换得尊重的现实，许多国家已采取与中国类似的对美斗争策略，即不向美国屈服，而是保 持坚定立场。 特朗普并非神话，他也是普通人，而美国也不再是曾经那种强大无敌的超级大国。如今，美国的软肋处处可见，特别是在贸易领域，那些敢于与美国对抗的 国家未必就会失败。事实上，特朗普发起的关税战本身就是一场双输的愚蠢游戏。当全球各国为捍卫自身利益而抱团取暖时，最终最受伤的可能是美国自 己。关税战的爆发打乱了全球的正常贸易秩序，必然推高美国的通胀率，并对美元的信用和美债的销售带来严重影响。在这种情况下，美国的损失可能会超 过其他国家。否则，特朗普为何一再延迟"对等关税"政策，并试图鼓励各国通过谈判解决争端呢？这表明，只要各国坚持立场，拒绝在美国作出让步之前达 成协议，最终失败的很可能是美国。 目前 ...

Group 1 - The EU is facing significant challenges as the Trump administration expands the scope of tariffs, with a potential 15% or 20% uniform tariff on nearly all trade partners [1][2] - EU member states are divided on how to respond to Trump's tariff threats, with Germany advocating for a quick agreement to protect its industry, while France and others resist unilateral concessions [2][4] - The EU's initial goal of a comprehensive trade agreement has shifted to seeking a temporary agreement, with ongoing discussions about automobile tariffs currently set at 25% [2][3] Group 2 - Businesses are altering supply chains and reducing imports due to tariff uncertainties, with reports of companies like Walmart and Levi's delaying orders and limiting shipments [3][4] - The real concern for the EU is not just the tariffs themselves but Trump's unpredictability, which complicates negotiations and planning [4][6] - The EU has a pending €21 billion worth of retaliatory tariffs that will automatically take effect unless the current suspension is extended [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's decision to impose a 50% tariff on all goods imported from Brazil, highlighting the complexities of U.S.-Brazil trade relations and the potential impact on various sectors, particularly agriculture and food services [1][4]. Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Trade Relations - The U.S. has maintained a significant trade surplus with Brazil, totaling approximately $410 billion over the past 15 years, which aligns with Trump's trade objectives [1]. - Brazil's exports to the U.S. were around $40 billion, while imports were about $47 billion, resulting in a U.S. surplus of approximately $7 billion [4]. - The trade between the U.S. and Brazil accounts for only 1.7% of Brazil's GDP, indicating that Brazil is not overly reliant on the U.S. market [4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods could significantly affect U.S. industries, particularly the restaurant sector, which may face increased prices for coffee and other agricultural products [4][5]. - Brazil is the largest coffee producer globally, exporting nearly 8 million bags of coffee to the U.S. annually, which constitutes about one-third of U.S. coffee consumption [5]. - In addition to coffee, Brazil exports over half of the orange juice consumed in the U.S., along with substantial quantities of sugar, beef, and ethanol [5]. Group 3: Political Context - Trump's tariff threats appear to be influenced by political motivations, including a response to Brazil's leadership and its alignment with BRICS nations, which Trump has criticized [7][8]. - Lula, the Brazilian president, has publicly condemned Trump's approach, emphasizing the importance of respecting Brazil's sovereignty and judicial independence [8]. - The article suggests that Trump's actions may be an attempt to leverage economic power to influence Brazil's internal politics, particularly regarding former President Bolsonaro [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.52%, Nasdaq down 0.02%, and S&P 500 down 0.30% as of the report [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with NIO rising over 9% and Meituan, Xpeng Motors, and Kingsoft Cloud increasing over 1%, while Tencent Music, Bilibili, and Beike fell over 1% and Beike dropped over 3% [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - The CEO of Barrick Gold expressed optimism about the long-term prospects of copper despite short-term price fluctuations caused by US tariffs, noting that COMEX copper futures reached a historical high while LME copper prices fell over 2% [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Tesla announced the opening of its first experience center in India on July 15, marking its official entry into the Indian market, showcasing popular models like Model 3 and Model Y [6] - Salia reported a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of the fiscal year 2025, reaching 7.7 billion yen, exceeding market expectations, driven by low prices attracting more customers [7]

特朗普掀起的"关税战"，还远没到收尾的时候，最近与美国走得很近的日韩，成了特朗普的首要目标之 一。 【特朗普对日韩发出"威胁信"】 日前，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布了致日韩的信件，表示将自今年8月起，对所有进口自日本和韩国 的产品征收25%的关税。他还警告，如果日韩敢还手，那就等着更狠的惩罚。 面对特朗普这封"下马威"式的信件，韩国方面显得有些慌了。李在明办公室则表示会加快动作，尽量在 既定日期前与美达成协议。 显而易见，韩国当前正处在一个十分焦虑的状态。而在这个背景下，中国似乎成为了韩国的"救命稻 草"。 根据韩联社的报道，在特朗普发出"威胁信"的同一天，韩副外长朴润柱紧急会见了中国驻韩大使戴兵， 双方"就共同关心的问题"交换意见。 虽然双方并未明确这个所谓"共同关心"的问题是什么，但结合此次会谈的时机，不难猜出多半指的就是 关税问题。 对于李在明政府来说，特朗普的关税政策带来的压力极大。李在明上任刚刚满一个月，内阁组阁工作还 没有完成，韩国国内还有前总统尹锡悦发动戒严之后的一系列司法程序在进行中，美国在这个关头强行 加征关税，无疑让韩国难上加难。 某种程度上看，这虽然不是经济制裁，但带来的后果不亚于制裁。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has strategically increased its nickel reserves in response to geopolitical tensions and market conditions, particularly in light of the U.S.-China trade war initiated by Trump, which has led to a significant drop in nickel prices due to increased production from Indonesia [1][3]. Group 1: Nickel Procurement Strategy - Since December of the previous year, China has purchased up to 100,000 tons of nickel, with 77,000 tons acquired in the first five months of this year, indicating a potential doubling of reserves by 2025 [1][3]. - The price of nickel has fallen by 40% due to increased production from Indonesia, allowing China to capitalize on this opportunity to stockpile nickel at historically low prices [3]. Group 2: Importance of Nickel - Nickel is a critical alloying element in stainless steel, and China, being the largest stainless steel producer globally, requires substantial nickel reserves [5]. - The growing application of nickel in the electric vehicle industry, particularly in battery production, underscores the necessity for China to secure its nickel supply amid the booming demand for electric vehicles [7]. - Nickel-based alloys are also essential for national defense materials, including components for aircraft engines and rockets, further emphasizing the strategic importance of nickel reserves [7]. Group 3: Timing and Geopolitical Considerations - The timing of China's nickel procurement aligns with the geopolitical landscape, as actions were taken shortly after Trump's election, anticipating potential trade conflicts and supply chain disruptions [9]. - The increasing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the likelihood of U.S. actions against China in critical mineral sectors necessitate proactive measures to ensure resource security [9].