Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 26, the price of precious metals continued to rise significantly, especially silver. The main driver for silver's rise comes from the imbalance in the supply - demand structure, tight spot market, capital sentiment, and insufficient overseas short - term market liquidity. The gold price rose steadily, causing the gold - silver ratio to drop significantly. The domestic gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 53, and the overseas ratio to around 57, the lowest since 2013 [6]. - In the short term, the trading price of precious metals is expected to remain high and strong. However, due to the obvious "short squeeze" in the silver market, investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term and consider gradually taking profit on long positions to control risks [6]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, and factors such as increased geopolitical uncertainty, rising dollar credit risk, and continued allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely drive the gold price higher. Long - term investors are recommended to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, London gold spot rose 0.7% to $4511.30/oz, London silver spot rose 3.9% to $74.64/oz, COMEX gold rose 0.8% to $4541.70/oz, and COMEX silver rose 4.1% to $74.84/oz. The domestic AU2602 rose 0.7% to 1016.3 yuan/g, and AG2602 rose 5.3% to 18319 yuan/kg [5]. - Regarding price differences, on December 26th compared with the 25th, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference rose 5.7%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference rose 402.8%, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) fell 4.5%, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) fell 37.9% [5]. 2. Position Data - As of December 26th, compared with the 24th, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.27% to 1071.13 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.34% to 16390.5638 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 4.63% to 280920 contracts, non - commercial short positions rose 5.25% to 46942 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions rose 4.51% to 233978 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions fell 15.05% to 56034 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 7.37% to 19682 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions fell 18.69% to 36352 contracts [5]. 3. Inventory Data - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.25% to 97692 kg, and SHFE silver inventory fell 3.87% to 819431 kg. Compared with the 24th, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.09% to 36191255 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.36% to 449727730 troy ounces [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Stock Market - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell 0.05% to 7.04. Compared with the 24th, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 98.03, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.29% to 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.24% to 4.14%, the VIX rose 0.97% to 13.60, the S&P 500 fell 0.03% to 6929.94, and NYMEX crude oil fell 2.52% to $56.93 [5]. 5. Market Review and Outlook - On December 26th, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.75% to 1016.3 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 6.6% to 18319 yuan/kg [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Control risks [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, medium - long term short allocation [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rise sharply [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current precious metals market has entered a severely overbought zone, especially silver and platinum. They may either quickly correct to release pressure or digest gains through high - level consolidation. However, the bull market is not over as the long - term upward logic remains unchanged, including the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, rising geopolitical risks, and long - term concerns about currency credit [3][4]. - For base metals, different metals have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - environment, and policy factors [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Market Review - Loose liquidity, geopolitical events, and tariff issues have led to a large inflow of funds into precious metals [2]. 3.1.2 Basic Logic - This year, precious metals have been outstanding. Supply - demand imbalance, Fed rate cuts, and capital inflows have jointly driven the sharp rise of silver, platinum, and palladium. But other precious metals except gold face high - level volatility risks in the short term [3]. - The US dollar is depreciating, and the process of de - dollarization is ongoing. The Bloomberg dollar index is having its worst week since June, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has dropped by about one basis point to 4.14% [3]. - China will implement strategic export controls on physical silver inventories from January 1, 2026, and the US will decide whether to impose tariffs on silver and platinum by January 17, 2026 [3]. - Geopolitical risks include the US military action in Nigeria and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict [3]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Gold is recommended for long - term holding due to geopolitical risks, improved liquidity, and continuous central - bank gold purchases. Silver has a long - term bullish logic but is currently in an overbought zone, so risks should be controlled [1]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Review - The outer - market is closed for Christmas, and the domestic copper market has an independent trend. The Shanghai copper price has reached a new historical high, breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][6]. 3.2.2 Industry Logic - The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term contract TC is set at $0/ton. High copper prices have significantly suppressed demand, and it is the consumption off - season [6]. 3.2.3 Strategy Recommendation - Hold copper long positions and take partial profits at high prices. Be cautious about high - level corrections. In the medium - long term, copper is still favored as a strategic resource and asset allocation alternative to precious metals [1][7]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.3 Market Review - The Shanghai zinc price fluctuates narrowly, and the outer - market is closed for Christmas [8][9]. 3.3.4 Industry Logic - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has decreased, and some high - cost smelters may reduce production. It is the consumption off - season, and the overseas zinc inventory has increased, suppressing the upside space [9]. 3.3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Enterprises are advised to sell hedging and actively lay out at high prices. In the medium - long term, zinc is a short - allocation in the sector [1][10]. 3.4 Aluminum 3.4.1 Market Review - The aluminum price continues to rebound, and the alumina price also shows a rebound [11][12]. 3.4.2 Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of aluminum enterprises in south - western China may increase due to the approaching dry season. The inventory shows a mixed trend, and the demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is excessive, and the inventory continues to accumulate [13]. 3.4.3 Strategy Recommendation - Take short - term profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21700 - 22800] [14]. 3.5 Nickel 3.5.1 Market Review - The nickel price rebounds again, while the stainless - steel price rebounds and then falls [15][16]. 3.5.2 Industry Logic - Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel - ore production target for 2026 and plans to tax associated metals. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [17]. 3.5.3 Strategy Recommendation - Take short - term profits on nickel and stainless - steel and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 135000] [18]. 3.6 Lithium Carbonate 3.6.1 Market Review - The main contract LC2605 opens high and goes high, closing above the 130,000 - yuan mark [19]. 3.6.2 Industry Logic - The price remains above the 5 - day moving average. The supply increases slightly, and the demand is supported by high - level capacity utilization of downstream material factories. The total inventory decreases slightly. The early - than - expected resumption of production by CATL may slow down the increase [20]. 3.6.3 Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see in the range of [121700 - 135000] [21].

C）中长期观点。中长期来看。美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和逆全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务和美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 加美元信用风险、全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续、故金价中长期重心大概率继续上移，建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 the Sept 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | ( ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices experienced significant volatility, reaching historical highs before a sharp decline, indicating a phase of high-level consolidation and competition around the $4500 mark [1][8]. - Last week, gold prices surged to $4550 before facing resistance and a subsequent drop to $4472, followed by a quick recovery above $4500 [3][4]. - The market is currently observing a struggle between bulls and bears, with key resistance levels at $4520 and $4550, while support levels are noted at $4472 and $4430 [5][8]. Group 2 - Key factors influencing the market include U.S. fiscal interventions causing market turbulence, rising unemployment rates, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have collectively supported gold prices [10]. - The release of the U.S. third-quarter GDP data exceeded expectations, providing some support for the dollar, which contributed to gold's price adjustments [10]. - This week, attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy minutes, particularly regarding interest rate cut expectations amidst economic pressures [11]. Group 3 - Silver has also seen a significant price increase, emerging as a strong performer in the market [12]. - The global capital pricing landscape remains uncertain, with precious metals becoming a crowded investment space following the rise of AI technologies [13]. - Traditional investment sectors are facing challenges, leading to a shift in capital away from them, while the impact of AI continues to evolve [14].

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292 2025年12月29日 | | | | | 叶偏古 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | | 1016.30 | 1008.76 | 7.54 | 0.75% | 元/牙 | | AG2602合约 | | 18319 | 17397 | 922 | 5.30% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | | 686 de | 657.65 | 29.30 | 4.46% | | | PD2606合约 | | 529.05 | 578.45 | -49.40 | -8.54% | 元/克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月24日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | | 4562.00 | 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver experienced significant volatility on December 29, with an annual increase exceeding 160%, outperforming gold significantly [1][2]. Price Movement - On December 29, spot silver prices briefly surpassed $83 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 6%, before quickly retreating to around $75, maintaining a narrow trading range [1][2]. - As of 10:09 AM, spot silver was down 2.03%, priced at $77.72 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 160% [1][2]. Market Conditions - Silver is currently in a severe overbought territory, indicating a potential for rapid correction or high-level consolidation to digest gains [1][2]. - Despite the current market conditions, this does not signify the end of the bull market, as the underlying factors supporting long-term increases in precious metals remain intact [1][2]. Supporting Factors for Long-term Growth - Key factors supporting the long-term rise in precious metals include the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, rising geopolitical risks, and long-term concerns regarding currency credibility [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions, weak dollar performance, and year-end liquidity issues [2][3][4]. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - On December 29, spot silver prices opened rapidly, breaking through $80 per ounce and peaking at $83 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 5% and a cumulative annual increase of $52 [1]. - Following this peak, silver prices quickly retreated, with a maximum drop of over $6 within 30 minutes, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $9, ultimately settling at $76.5 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of over 3% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - Geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar have contributed to a strong demand for precious metals, maintaining their historical upward trend as year-end liquidity remains thin [3]. - Analysts from UBS have indicated that precious metal prices are currently at high levels, with increased short-term trading risks as investors may seek to take profits [3]. - The demand for safe-haven assets remains robust, supporting investment in gold and silver, while thin market liquidity amplifies price volatility [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - A significant amount of liquid silver is stored in New York, awaiting results from a key U.S. Department of Commerce investigation regarding mineral imports, which could lead to adjustments in silver tariffs and other trade restrictions [3]. - Commodity analyst Manav Modi noted that the high volume of paper silver trading requires physical silver support, and current physical silver supply is insufficient to meet demand, impacting paper trading [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - Silver prices are influenced by its industrial applications, including electrification, solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centers, with demand in these sectors driving inventory depletion [4]. - A substantial influx of capital into the precious metals market has led to rising silver prices, supported by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [4]. - The primary driver of recent silver price increases is a structural supply-demand imbalance, with physical silver in short supply prompting concentrated market purchases [4]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment - According to a Kitco News annual silver survey, a majority of retail traders are optimistic about silver's performance in 2026, with expectations for further price increases [4]. - Among surveyed retail traders, 57% anticipate silver prices will exceed $100 per ounce in 2026 [5]. - Additionally, 27% expect prices to range between $80 and $100 per ounce, while 11% predict a high of $60 to $80 per ounce [6]. - A small minority, 5%, believe prices will retreat to the $40 to $60 per ounce range seen in late 2025 [7].

山海：切勿跟风黄金市场，保持自己的专属节奏！ 现在刷遍网络，大家都看到了，贵金属这轮的上涨已经是资本市场炙手可热的话题，不管是从事这个行业的人还是不是从事这个行业的人，茶余饭后都在讨 论这波黄金，白银，铂金，钯金到底能为什么能涨，到底能涨到哪里，还能不能参入其中。山海在这里需要给大家提个醒，虽然现在市场很热，看似方向明 确，但却是上涨的尾巴，风险大于利润，山海认为这个时间周期黄金，白银将出现不可控的暴涨，暴跌空间，不仅仅能涨，下跌也可能随时走出来，所以， 现在这样的状态，山海宁可多保持观望，而不是激进疯狂的追随市场。 本周市场的基本看法和交易原则保持不变，基本看法是看涨，交易原则还是等待每天的调整做多，只要大方向不变，交易原则就不变，即使它每天都刷新高 点，但没有回落到我们认为的关键点，交易是宁错过不做错，所以，本周更多的建议是多观察，少操作。就目前市场热度来看，上周的连续大涨，每天刷新 高点，但今天早盘开盘，出现了暴涨空间，可看出市场已经出现了疲软的状态，那么，本周有可能会出现上周的回吐空间，上周起涨点在4336，本周如果跌 倒4336后，市场就由极强转为高位震荡，到时候市场相对回归正常，就可以做技术面的涨 ...

Price Movement Core Reasons - Geopolitical risks have decreased as Trump stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is "close to reaching an agreement," which weakened safe-haven sentiment and triggered long position sell-offs [3] - Insufficient liquidity and profit-taking were highlighted by UBS, warning that the current rally is driven by liquidity shortages and carries a risk of rapid decline; some investors opted to cash out at high levels before the Christmas holiday [3] - Technical breakdown signals were noted, with $4500 being a critical support level; breaking below this triggered programmatic selling, with short-term support shifting to the $4470-$4480 range [3] Market Reactions and Divergent Views - The bullish logic remains unchanged due to long-term support factors such as a 65.3% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 2026, global central bank gold purchases (net purchases of 902 tons in the first three quarters), and a restructuring of the dollar credit system [4] - Institutional target prices are high, with Goldman Sachs projecting $4900 and JPMorgan forecasting $5055, suggesting that the current pullback is an opportunity to buy [5] Cautionary Signals - Technical indicators are overbought, with RSI reaching 74-80; Citigroup warns of a potential short-term pullback to $4300-$4400 [6] - Historical lessons indicate that gold prices experienced two significant drops after reaching $4380 in October (a single-day drop of 6.3%), leading some investors to exit at $4500 [6] Impact on Ordinary Consumers - There is a contradiction in the consumer market, as domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1400 yuan per gram, but the buyback price is over 30% lower, leaving consumers in a "paper profit hard to realize" dilemma [6] - The wedding demand is shifting towards the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, where pricing by gram or rental services is being adopted to lower costs [7] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Short-term strategy advises against chasing prices; focus on support at $4480, with a breakdown indicating a target of $4430 [8] - Long-term strategy suggests a maximum allocation of 10% of liquid assets, with a preference for gold ETFs (considering fees) [8] Future Key Observation Points - Policy outlook includes the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting statements and non-farm payroll data; weak employment figures could strengthen rate cut expectations [9] - Geopolitical developments such as progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the potential escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts are critical [10] - Fund flows, including changes in global gold ETF holdings (with a net increase of $5.2 billion in December) and the sustainability of central bank gold purchases, are essential to monitor [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The expected central price of gold in 2026 will gradually rise, targeting above $4,800. Some investors are pre - positioning in precious metals, leading to continuous increases in ETF holdings and rising derivative positions. Without clear negative factors, the short - term market will maintain a strong trend. However, investors should guard against short - term sharp fluctuations, maintain a long - only mindset but lock in profits in a timely manner [1]. - Silver, supported by favorable financial and industrial attributes, has strong physical demand and persistent inventory shortages. The "irrational" upward trend driven by market sentiment may not end soon. Future attention should be paid to risk - control measures by exchanges like CME and potential price corrections due to global commodity index rebalancing, which could provide a long - term buying opportunity. Also, monitor the repair of the domestic premium. Before the New Year's Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce positions or lock in positions on rallies [1]. - In the domestic market, the platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are in the early stage of listing, with overall low liquidity in positions and a domestic premium compared to the overseas market. As regulatory risk - control measures strengthen, long - position holders with large profits may take profits on rallies, leading to significant short - term price fluctuations. It is advised to wait and see before the holiday and lock in long positions in a timely manner, then make new allocations after the market stabilizes in the new year [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1,016.30 yuan/tael on December 26, up 7.54 yuan or 0.75% from December 25 [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 18,319 yuan/kg on December 26, up 922 yuan or 5.30% from December 25 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 686 (unit unclear), up 29.30 (unit unclear) or 4.46% from December 25 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 529.05 yuan/g on December 26, down 49.40 yuan or 8.54% from December 25 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at $4,562 on December 26, up $56.60 or 1.26% from December 24 [1]. - COMEX silver main contract closed at $79.68 on December 26, up $7.80 or 10.85% from December 24 [1]. - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2,513.90/ounce on December 26, up $241.00 or 10.60% from December 24 [1]. - NYMEX lithium gold main contract closed at $2,060.50 on December 26, up $239.50 or 13.15% from December 24 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at $4,532.51 on December 26, up $53.11 or 1.19% from December 25 [1]. - London silver was at $79.33 on December 26, up $7.52 or 10.47% from December 25 [1]. - Spot platinum was at $2,459.50/ounce on December 26, up $251.50 or 11.39% from December 25 [1]. - Spot palladium was at $1,925 on December 26, up $88 or 4.79% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1,008.80 yuan/tael on December 26, up 5.79 yuan or 0.58% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18,469 yuan/kg on December 26, up 1,055 yuan or 6.06% from December 25 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 662 yuan/gram on December 26, up 71 yuan or 11.99% from December 25 [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 7.50, down 1.75 from the previous value, at the 6.80% historical one - year quantile [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was 150, up 133 from the previous value, at the 95.90% historical one - year quantile [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold basis was - 29.49, down 3.49 from the previous value, at the 26.90% historical one - year quantile [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver basis was - 0.35, down 0.28 from the previous value, at the 38.70% historical one - year quantile [1]. Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 57.26, down 5.43 or 8.66% from the previous value [1]. - Another price ratio was 55.48, down 2.51 or - 4.32% from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX platinum/aluminum ratio was 1.22, down 0.03 or - 2.25% from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.30, up 0.16 or 14.21% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.14%, down 0.01 percentage points or - 0.2% from the previous value [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.46%, down 0.01 percentage points or - 0.3% from the previous value [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - US dollar index was 98.03, up 0.13 or 0.13% from the previous value [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.0042, up 0.0032 or 0.05% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 97,692, up 3,981 or 4.25% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 819,431 kg, down 32,986 kg or - 3.87% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory was 36,191,255, up 31,894 or 0.09% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory was 449,727,730, down 1,624,956 or - 0.36% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19,361,515 [1]. - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,624,307, up 1,268,758 or 1.00% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,071, up 2.86 or 0.27% from the previous value [1]. - SLV silver ETF holdings were 16,391, down 56.40 or - 0.34% from the previous value [1].