商 品 研 究 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：快速拉升 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 2026 年 1 月 13 日 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,026.28 | 1.97% | 1008.54 | 0.80% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,022.12 | 1.91% | 1005.52 | 0.55% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4608.80 | 2.00% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 20957 | 11.92% | 19438.00 | 6.19% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 20902 | 11.69% | 19400 | 4.53% | | | Comex白银2602 | 85.155 | 6.72% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | # ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions, with gold futures closing at $4608.8 per ounce, a 2.4% increase [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice's threat to pursue criminal charges regarding Powell's testimony about the $2.5 billion renovation project at the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, which could undermine the credibility of the U.S. financial system [1] - As a result of these developments, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven, reflecting a shift in market sentiment away from the dollar, which has seen its new year gains halted [1] Group 2 - The performance of gold-related ETFs was positive, with the Huaxia Gold ETF rising by 1.94%, the Gold Stock ETF increasing by 1.64%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF gaining 1.36% [1] - Market strategist Marc Chandler noted that the subpoena incident overshadowed geopolitical factors, indicating a significant shift in investor focus towards gold amid growing economic uncertainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major bond investment institutions warn that the Trump administration's attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence contradict its goal of lowering interest rates [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Sentiment - The market remains resilient but risks persist, indicating investor confidence in legal and political processes protecting the Fed's independence [4][6]. - Despite concerns over the Fed's credibility, the bond market maintains recent ranges, suggesting buyers are willing to enter at appropriate price levels [4]. - The futures market shows traders still expect only two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, indicating that government pressure is unlikely to affect the Fed's near-term rate decisions [4][6]. Group 2: Implications of Government Pressure - The pressure from the Trump administration is creating market instability, with the potential to keep Treasury yields elevated, thus increasing costs for mortgages, corporate loans, and other forms of credit [7]. - The government's actions contradict its goal of lowering long-term yields, as questioning the Fed's independence may lead to higher yields instead [7]. - Analysts believe that if investors fear inflation eroding investment value, they will demand higher long-term yields as compensation, which could drive key foreign buyers away from the U.S. market [8].

Market Overview - The global financial market displayed a distinct structural trend, with major US stock indices closing at historical highs, driven by a reallocation of funds between risk and safe assets [1] - The US stock market experienced a V-shaped rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 86.13 points (0.17%) to close at 49,590.20 points, and the S&P 500 index increasing by 10.99 points (0.16%) to 6,977.27 points [2] Technology Sector - Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Google's Class A shares rising by 1.09%, marking a market capitalization breakthrough of $4 trillion, bolstered by a long-term AI collaboration agreement with Apple [4] - Apple's stock also increased by 0.34%, while Meta Platforms saw a decline of 1.7% as it announced a strategic project to build AI computing facilities over the next decade [4] Consumer and Financial Sectors - The consumer sector experienced significant gains, exemplified by Walmart's stock surging by 3% to reach a historical high, with a market capitalization exceeding $940 billion due to expectations of its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index [5] - Conversely, the financial sector led declines in the S&P 500 index, with a drop of over 1%, influenced by President Trump's announcement of a 10% cap on credit card annual interest rates, which pressured loan institutions and credit card companies [6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks emerged as market stars, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index soaring by 4.26% to close at 8,023.79 points, marking a single-day increase of 328.17 points [7] - Notable individual stock performances included Kingsoft Cloud rising by 21.60%, Zhihu by 17.46%, and Alibaba by 10.17% [9] Precious Metals - The international precious metals market saw a strong surge, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.40% to $4,608.80 per ounce, and spot gold increasing by 1.84% to $4,592.13 per ounce, reaching historical peaks [10] - Silver prices experienced even greater gains, with COMEX silver futures up by 7.33% to $85.16 per ounce [10] Oil and Industrial Metals - International oil prices saw slight increases, with light crude oil futures for February rising by $0.38 to $59.50 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures for March up by $0.53 to $63.87 per barrel [10] - Industrial metals also showed signs of recovery, with copper prices returning to $6 per pound, indicating improved market expectations for global economic recovery [10]

当天3月交割的白银期货价格上涨536.5美分，收于每盎司85.155美元，涨幅为6.72%。 转自：新华财经 不过，13日亚洲交易时段开盘后，受芝商所调整贵金属合约保证金方式和美联储威廉姆斯有关发言影 响，贵金属价格温和回落。 新华财经纽约1月12日电（记者徐静） 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 12日上涨90.4美元，收于每盎司4608.8美元，涨幅为2%。 编辑：吴郑思 本周伊始市场避险情绪显著升温。地缘紧张局势升温和美联储独立性遭疑，令避险需求涌入贵金属市 场，推动黄金、白银价格当天大幅上涨，均再创历史新高。 12日盘中，纽约期金最高触及4640.5美元/盎司，期银最高触及86.340美元/盎司。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔11日表示，美国司法部已向美联储发出传票，威胁要就鲍威尔去年夏天就美 联储大楼翻修工程所作的证词对其提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔在一段视频声明中直言不讳地将刑事指控的威 胁描述为破坏美联储在设定利率方面独立性的"借口"。当地媒体认为，此举标志着美国总统特朗普与美 联储之间的斗争空前升级。特朗普曾多次抨击美联储没有像其希望的那样大幅降低利率。 地缘局势方面，伊朗外长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver continue to surge, reaching new historical highs, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal risks, and strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the main silver contract in Shanghai opened significantly higher at 20,881 CNY/kg, with a peak of 20,950 CNY/kg, marking a 14.07% increase [1] - COMEX silver rose over 6%, reaching 84.52 USD/oz, while London spot silver hit a high of 84.589 USD/oz, with an increase of over 5% [1] - COMEX gold reached 4,612.7 USD/oz, and the Shanghai gold main contract saw a 3.07% rise, both setting new historical highs [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - Geopolitical risks are high, enhancing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3] - U.S. fiscal risks are increasing due to the Trump administration's economic policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and diminishing the attractiveness of dollar assets [3][4] - Central banks globally are showing a strong willingness to increase gold reserves due to economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - In 2025, gold and silver saw substantial inflows, with over 5.5 billion shares of gold ETFs net purchased, and the largest gold ETF in China, Huaan Gold ETF, growing from under 30 billion CNY to over 90 billion CNY [5][6] - As of December 2025, China's central bank held 7.415 million ounces of gold, continuing a 14-month streak of increasing gold reserves [6] - In the first seven trading days of 2026, gold ETFs saw net purchases exceeding 400 million shares, with Huaan Gold ETF approaching 100 billion CNY [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold and gold stocks will have significant potential in 2026, driven by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [7] - The investment logic surrounding gold has shifted from short-term economic indicators to a focus on long-term structural risk hedging [7] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic long-term hedge, enhancing portfolio resilience amid policy uncertainties and fiscal vulnerabilities [7][8]

Group 1: Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce announced that it will provide general guidance on price commitments for Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU, aiming to resolve the EU's concerns regarding electric vehicle imports from China [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other ministries, released a systematic guideline for government investment funds, focusing on strategic areas and promoting technological and industrial innovation [2] - Zhejiang Province is planning to support private enterprises in participating in satellite IoT business by leveraging their own satellite constellations and developing space-time information infrastructure [2] Group 2: Market Trends - High-end housing demand remains resilient during market adjustments, with a slight decline in overall new residential transactions in 25 key cities, while transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan only decreased by 2% [3] - The global financial market is experiencing heightened risk aversion, with gold prices reaching a new high of $4600.79 per ounce and silver prices nearing $84 per ounce [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75%, indicating positive market sentiment [7]

截至上周五（1月9日），伦敦现货黄金报收4509.02美元/盎司，自1月2日以来累计上涨176.51美元/盎 司，涨幅4.07%。上周伦敦现货黄金价格震荡走强，金价于周五重回4500关口，最高达4517.23美元/盎 司。 回顾上周以来海外主要市场动态：美国12月制造业PMI超预期回落，强化市场对美联储降息预期；美国 非农就业数据再度下修，ADP数据疲软，但失业率也有所回落，尚为对降息预期有一致性的影响；地缘 冲突持续，美委冲突、白宫对格陵兰岛的表态强硬、伊朗爆发大规模抗议等，激发市场避险情绪；芝商 所第三次上调履约保证金，彭博商品指数开始调参、贵金属权重下降，对黄金带来一定短期利空。总体 来看，在地缘冲突与避险情绪的提振下，金价震荡走强，重回4500关口，或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基 金ETF（518800）。关注本周美国12月CPI、11月PPI等。 周点评：中长期看黄金具备支撑 在地缘冲突与避险情绪的提振下，上周伦敦现货黄金价格震荡走强，重回4500美元/盎司关口。展望后 市，美委、伊朗等地缘扰动、贵金属板块的火热交易情绪或构成利好，交易所上调保证金、商品指数调 整等因素或构成短期利空加大波动、但不改长期 ...

黄金上周深V反转，一路回升，吞没了跌幅新高收盘后。今天直接又疯了，直接高开高走，暴力拉升， 大涨90美金，刷新4600的历史高位调整，或再冲历史新高。 今天的走势 上周回升，重返4500关口后。 小幅休整，站稳此位置后。 今天直接高开，暴力冲顶4600的关口。 下方再次跌破了4550，继续看向4500的关口。 黄金连涨2个月，一路奔袭，狂轰600美金后。12月暴力冲顶回落，结束了2025年后，到本月又迎来回 升，再刷历史新高。强势归来，再续涨突破，新高不猜顶。当然了，下方可调整空间拉大，可看向4400 的关口。 操作方面，黄金暴力冲顶，再刷新高，继续看涨为主，关注4550和4500做多的机会。此外，黄金加速冲 高短期内调整，关注4600做空的机会。 上周主要因素： 一方面，美对委发动闪电突袭，点燃了加勒比海的局势风险。同时，特朗普的一系列行动，引发了一系 列的地缘导火索。特别是俄乌，还有中东又开始紧张起来了，避险推升黄金再次走高。 另外一方面，芝商所也在出手干预，再引爆的贵金属集体跳水崩盘，黄金也遭砸盘。以及重点，非农报 告出炉，失业率降温，就业数据接连大幅下修，劳动力市场迷雾持续，黄金上演深跌V转。 再次快 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets due to geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4600.79 per ounce, while silver prices approached $84 per ounce, marking significant increases driven by global conflicts and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing disputes between President Trump and the Federal Reserve are undermining the credibility of the dollar, contributing to a trend of de-dollarization and increasing the appeal of precious metals [2][3] Group 2 - The current environment of frequent geopolitical conflicts is creating substantial uncertainty in the market, which is enhancing the safe-haven properties of precious metals [2] - Factors such as rising debt risks, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization are expected to sustain the upward trajectory of gold prices in the long term [3] - The supply shortage of silver, coupled with rising industrial demand and tight inventory conditions, is likely to drive silver prices further upward [2][3]