每经编辑｜陈鹏程 王晓波 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数小幅收涨，纳指涨0.09%，标普500指数涨0.27%，道指涨0.43%，其中，纳指、标普500指数均创历史新高；大型科技股涨跌互现，特斯拉涨 4.7%，奈飞跌超2%；达美航空大涨12%引领旅游股走高，比特币概念股走高，Coinbase涨超4%。中概股涨跌互现，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.9%，阿里 巴巴涨超2%，网易跌超2%，小鹏汽车、京东跌超1%。 比特币盘中突破11.7万美元，继续刷新历史新高，日内涨超5%。 外交部：滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益 7月10日外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会，有记者问：美国总统特朗普宣布将对进口铜征收50%的关税，理由是国家安全，请问中方对此有何评论？毛宁 表示，这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。（央视 新闻） 商务部：已部署开展打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动 在7月10日下午召开的商务部例行新闻发布会上，新闻发言人就中国政府是否已采取相关措施打击关键矿产转运和走私行为的问题作出了回应。商务部新闻 发言人何咏前表示，锑和镓等战略矿产具有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong are demonstrating resilience and adaptability in the face of increasing external uncertainties, particularly due to U.S. tariff measures impacting profit margins and order volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - U.S. tariff measures are compressing profit margins for foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized ones, leading to increased costs and reduced orders [1]. - Initially, many enterprises with low value-added products and high export ratios to the U.S. paused orders when tariffs were first imposed, but resumed as U.S.-China trade talks progressed [1]. Group 2: Strategies for Market Expansion - Enterprises are adopting a dual strategy of "traditional foreign trade + cross-border e-commerce" to navigate challenges [1]. - Expanding into emerging markets is seen as a key strategy for risk diversification, with many companies reporting successful orders from Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia [1]. - Some companies are responding to the "Belt and Road" initiative by establishing production bases in emerging markets, achieving diversified capacity layouts [1]. Group 3: Domestic Market Development - Foreign trade enterprises are actively exploring domestic markets, overcoming initial concerns about channel shortages and market access due to strong government support and rising domestic consumption [2]. - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is recognized as an important strategy, with companies leveraging their overseas experience to adapt to domestic market needs [2]. Group 4: Innovation and Competitiveness - The resilience of Guangdong's foreign trade enterprises is attributed to a strong industrial foundation, innovation capabilities, and market insights [2]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing competitiveness by developing high value-added products and improving their bargaining power through R&D, design, branding, and standards [2]. - The current tariff situation is viewed as an opportunity for upgrading, emphasizing the importance of technological advantages and supply chain resilience [2].

Group 1 - The global economy has struggled to recover post-pandemic, influenced by multiple overlapping cycles and unpredictable U.S. policies, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" implemented this year [3][4] - The article discusses three major shifts: the global order shift, trade shift, and technological shift, emphasizing that technology ultimately determines a nation's fate [5][6][8] Group 2 - The essence of the U.S.-China trade war is a struggle for national destiny, with both countries facing challenges in economic growth, social stability, technological innovation, and international reputation [9][10] - The trade war reflects a deeper institutional conflict between the governance systems of the U.S. and China [10] Group 3 - Trump's tariff strategy aims to reshape U.S. manufacturing, reduce reliance on Chinese production, increase fiscal revenue, and address social inequality [10][21][22] - The U.S. economy operates on four cycles: a dollar-centered global trade system, a Silicon Valley tech-centric global supply chain, a military-based global security system, and a financial system centered around the Federal Reserve [10][14][16] Group 4 - The trade war could lead to three potential outcomes: a prolonged standoff, a negotiated settlement, or a partial agreement with mutual tariff increases [25] - China has various countermeasures available, including reciprocal tariffs, restrictions on specific U.S. imports, and accelerating the internationalization of the yuan [26][28] Group 5 - The U.S. is caught in a dilemma of not wanting to decouple from China while simultaneously restricting high-tech flows to China [29][30] - The impact of tariffs on China's economy could be significant, with potential GDP growth reductions of 0.5% to 1.5% depending on the tariff levels [31][32] Group 6 - The long-term trajectory of U.S.-China relations is characterized by a mix of cooperation and competition, with tariffs being just one aspect of a broader economic strategy [36] - China is adjusting its economic model to reduce dependence on the U.S. market, with ASEAN becoming its largest export market [39][40] Group 7 - Recent breakthroughs in U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to a reduction in tariffs, indicating a potential easing of tensions [41] - The global economic landscape is shifting towards a restructured trade system, with the U.S. moving away from globalization and seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [43][44] Group 8 - China's economic challenges include insufficient domestic demand and external pressures from U.S. tariffs, leading to a cycle of reduced consumption and investment [62][64] - The article outlines several key trends for China's future economy, including a focus on hard technology and strategic industries, as well as the need for significant policy adjustments [69][70] Group 9 - The U.S. has intensified restrictions on China's access to advanced technologies, particularly in artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries, highlighting the competitive nature of the tech landscape [72][73] - The article emphasizes the importance of materials science and technological breakthroughs as critical to future economic advancements [88][89]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China stated that since May, under the guidance of the consensus between the leaders of China and the U.S., high-level economic talks have been held in Geneva and London, resulting in the Geneva Consensus and London Framework, which aim to stabilize economic relations between the two countries [1] - The spokesperson emphasized the importance of maintaining close communication on economic concerns at multiple levels and called for mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation to enhance dialogue and communication [1] - The Ministry has initiated a special action to combat the smuggling and illegal export of strategic minerals, such as antimony and gallium, which are subject to export controls due to their military and civilian dual-use nature [2] Group 2 - In response to U.S. President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper citing national security, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated its opposition to the broad interpretation of national security and stated that trade wars and tariff impositions do not benefit any party [3]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has confirmed ongoing communication between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect and cooperation to stabilize economic ties [2] - The spokesperson highlighted that since May, high-level economic talks have taken place in Geneva and London, resulting in agreements that aim to ensure sustainable development in U.S.-China economic relations [2] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to EU leaders' comments on "overcapacity," stating that China's new energy sector does not face overcapacity but rather a capacity gap, urging the EU to engage in more constructive dialogue [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has initiated actions to combat the smuggling and illegal export of strategic minerals, aligning with international practices for export control [4] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated China's opposition to the broad interpretation of national security, particularly in response to the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports, asserting that trade wars yield no winners [5] - China has expressed its commitment to signing the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, indicating a willingness to enhance regional security cooperation [6][7]

7月10日外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会，有记者问：美国总统特朗普昨天宣布将对进口铜征收50% 的关税，理由是国家安全，请问中方对此有何评论？ 毛宁表示，这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸 易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。（央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement by Trump to impose a 50% tariff on copper, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions and the stance of the Chinese government against such measures [1]. Group 1 - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper on July 9 [1] - The Chinese government, represented by spokesperson Mao Ning, expressed a clear opposition to the broadening of national security concepts and emphasized that trade wars have no winners [1] - The Chinese stance indicates that excessive tariffs do not align with the interests of any party involved [1]

【外交部：美对铜加征关税不符合任何一方利益】当地时间7月9日，特朗普宣布对铜征50%关税。今 天，中国外交部发言人毛宁对此表示：这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反对泛化国家安全概念， 我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。（央视新闻） ...

1. Hot News - Houthi rebels attacked the Greek - operated, Liberian - flagged vessel "ETERNITY C" near Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in two deaths. It's the first seaman - fatality incident in the Red Sea since June 2024 [2] - In June, domestic retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. In the first six months, the cumulative domestic retail sales reached 5.468 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.3% [2] - Trump said on the 7th that starting from August 1st, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that tariff and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will make an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 7th that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, pure benzene, methanol, urea, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session, different commodity sectors had varying performances. Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals 27.55%, oilseeds and oils 12.51%, non - ferrous metals 20.69%, soft commodities 2.84%, coal - coke - steel - ore 13.84%, energy 3.11%, chemicals 12.69%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [3] 4. Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coke - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 1.54% monthly, and 4.35% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% daily but had a 0.33% monthly and 5.85% annual increase; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.09% daily, 0.31% monthly, and 20.38% annually [5] - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, had a 0.11% monthly increase, and a 0.09% annual increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.38% annually [5] - **Commodities**: The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.01% daily, 1.69% monthly, and 1.88% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.47% daily, 5.00% monthly, but fell 5.10% annually; London spot gold fell 1.07% daily, 0.05% monthly, but rose 25.78% annually [5] - **Others**: The US Dollar Index fell 0.06% daily, had a 0.74% monthly increase, and a 10.13% annual decrease; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, had a 6.34% monthly increase, and a 2.54% annual increase [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of multiple major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of some stock indices [6]

Core Viewpoint - India, traditionally cautious in its diplomatic strategies, has unexpectedly chosen to confront the United States amidst the backdrop of Trump's impending "reciprocal tariffs" policy, signaling a significant shift in its approach to U.S. relations [1][3][5]. Group 1: India-U.S. Trade Relations - India has been under pressure from the Trump administration to lower tariffs on U.S. goods, especially as the U.S. has become one of India's largest trading partners [5][7]. - Despite a history of friendly relations, the U.S. demands, particularly regarding agricultural products, have led to a stalemate, with India unwilling to compromise on its agricultural market [8][10]. - On July 4, India announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth approximately $725 million, marking a public counteraction against U.S. trade strategies [11]. Group 2: Diplomatic Maneuvers - India's stance at the BRICS summit has shifted, moving from a supportive role of U.S. interests to a more confrontational position, indicating a strategic pivot in its international relations [12][15]. - India is also seeking to undermine U.S. influence on the global stage by collaborating with other international organizations and advocating for reforms in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [13][15]. Group 3: Domestic Considerations - The Indian government's response to U.S. demands is influenced by domestic political factors, particularly the religious and cultural implications of agricultural policies, which are critical to Prime Minister Modi's political standing [17][19]. - Modi's firm stance on agricultural market control reflects the need to maintain support from significant voter demographics, particularly those influenced by Hindu religious beliefs [17][19]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The ongoing trade tensions between India and the U.S. could have wider repercussions, potentially affecting U.S. trade strategies and its broader geopolitical objectives, including its approach to China [19][20]. - India's awareness of China's trade negotiations with the U.S. has prompted it to adopt a more assertive position, as it seeks to enhance its own standing on the global economic stage [20].