Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on July 4, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 772.22 CNY per gram, down 0.43%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 8883 CNY per kilogram, down 0.38% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3321.50 USD per ounce, down 0.44%, and COMEX silver at 36.80 USD per ounce, down 0.63% [1] - The opening prices for July 4 were 775.38 CNY for Shanghai gold and 8919.00 CNY for Shanghai silver, with respective highs of 777.20 CNY and 8953.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade negotiations focus on 18 countries contributing to 95% of the U.S. trade deficit, with strategies aimed at applying maximum pressure [3] - Current CME "FedWatch" data shows a 95.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - Last week, COMEX gold prices increased by 1.84% to 3346.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold rose by 1.10% to 777.06 CNY per gram [4]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3342.16, with a slight increase of 0.47% from the previous session, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The recent daily candlestick pattern shows a bearish engulfing formation, suggesting a potential short-term correction after a three-day bullish trend, with market focus on the closing price today [2] - The 4-hour analysis indicates gold is consolidating between $3365 and $3311, with Bollinger Bands tightening, and the absence of U.S. market activity today may lead to a range-bound movement [3] Group 2 - The market is signaling a potential interest rate cut, as indicated by the two-year U.S. Treasury yield being perceived as too high, with commentary suggesting that the current economic conditions may warrant a reassessment of rates [2] - The focus on the mid-band level of $3350 is crucial for determining future bullish momentum, with a closing above this level suggesting further upward movement [2] - Support levels are identified at $3322-$3311, while resistance is noted at $3350-$3360, guiding short-term trading strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismisses concerns about the potential depreciation of the dollar undermining its status as the global reserve currency, emphasizing that the strength of the dollar is not directly linked to its price [1][2] Group 1: Dollar's Status and Policy - The dollar index has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973, amid concerns over Trump's policies, including tariffs and diplomatic stances [1] - Bessent asserts that the Trump administration is taking long-term measures to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1] - He questions the notion that the current environment presents an opportunity for reduced reliance on the dollar, emphasizing that a reserve currency must allow for free trading [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - Bessent expresses skepticism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, indicating that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield suggests the benchmark rate is too high [2] - The current target for the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - He notes that if the Fed does not lower rates, the potential cut in September could be more significant [2] Group 3: Debt Strategy and Management - Bessent discusses the debt management strategy, indicating that the Treasury will consider the high two-year yield when making decisions about debt repayment [4] - He refrains from commenting on predictions regarding the reduction of the federal deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's policies, stating that long-term forecasts are difficult [4] - The next quarterly refinancing meeting is scheduled for July 30, where any changes in debt strategy will be announced [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, with an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market average forecast of 110,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the predicted 4.3% [1] - Following the strong non-farm data, traders reduced bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, with the probability of maintaining rates now at 95.3%, up from 74.7% the previous day [1] - The strong performance of the U.S. capital markets, with major stock indices reaching new closing highs, diminished the appeal of gold, while the U.S. dollar index rebounded from recent lows, further suppressing gold price momentum [1] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 218 in favor and 214 against, which had already been approved by the Senate [2] - The bill is set to be signed by President Trump on July 4, coinciding with Independence Day, making it effective [2] Group 3 - The most actively traded September silver futures rose by 25 cents, closing at $37.040 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.68% [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, questions the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rates, suggesting that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield indicates that the benchmark rate is too high [1] - Becerra emphasizes that the current actual interest rates are very high when adjusted for inflation, and he suggests that if the Fed does not lower rates, the potential cut in September could be larger [1] - The futures market indicates that traders expect the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in the September meeting, while no changes are anticipated in July [1] Group 2 - Becerra refrains from commenting on calls for Fed Chair Powell's resignation but suggests that the Fed should manage its spending like other agencies [2] - He hints at the possibility of Powell leaving the Fed after his term ends in May 2026, despite Powell's term as a governor lasting until 2028 [2] - Becerra notes a divergence in expectations among Fed policymakers based on their appointing authority, indicating a split between Trump-appointed officials and others [2] Group 3 - Becerra highlights that the upcoming legislation includes an increase in the federal debt ceiling, which he believes will support the government until 2027 [3] - The Treasury has been using special accounting measures to meet federal payment obligations without exceeding the debt limit, and plans to increase short-term Treasury sales once the legislation is signed [3] - He mentions that the debt management process is orderly, but acknowledges that the two-year Treasury yield will be considered in their strategies [3] Group 4 - Becerra states that decisions regarding debt maturity arrangements will be made in the coming months, with the next quarterly refinancing announcement expected on July 30 [4] - He avoids commenting on the White House economic advisor's claim that Trump policies will reduce the fiscal deficit by $11 trillion over the next decade, citing the difficulty of predicting long-term borrowing scenarios [4]

Core Viewpoint - A majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain the interest rate at 3.25% on July 9, with a forecasted reduction to 3.00% in the third quarter [1] Group 1 - Out of 27 economists surveyed, 19 believe the interest rate will remain at 3.25% [1] - Among 22 economists, 16 anticipate a decrease in the interest rate to 3.00% in the third quarter [1] - The median forecast for the year-end interest rate is 3.00%, an increase from the previous survey's prediction of 2.75% [1]

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's claims about the success of his administration's economic policies and legislative achievements, particularly emphasizing the "big and beautiful" plan [1] - It highlights the potential impact of the upcoming ADP employment data on market sentiment and Trump's likely reaction, which may involve blaming the Federal Reserve for any negative economic indicators [2] - The article notes that while the bond market is slowly aligning with Trump's views on interest rates, there is still no significant panic or deep concern reflected in current bond yields [2] Group 2 - Critics argue that the high interest rates are not solely the fault of the Federal Reserve but also due to the additional debt incurred by Trump and Congressional Republicans, which adds to the national debt burden [3] - Trump's public relations strategy has been effective in shifting blame for economic downturns to the Federal Reserve, despite the economy not showing signs of collapse yet [3] - The article warns that if the economy falters, Trump's exaggerated claims may backfire, leading to increased pressure on the dollar and bond markets, potentially resulting in higher long-term bond yields [3]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月3日） 其它： 3. 韩国总统李在明：无法确定是否能在7月8日前完成与美国的关税谈判。双方在谈判中并不真正清楚各 自的具体诉求。 美元： 5. 特朗普称鲍威尔应立即辞职，并援引美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）署长有关国会应调查鲍威尔的报 道。 6. 路透调查：52位策略师中有42位表示，到7月底美元仓位预计将保持稳定，或净空头将增加。 主要非美货币： 1. 路透调查：预计欧元兑美元六个月后为1.18，一年后为1.20（6月调查时分别为1.15和1.18）。 6. 日本央行审议委员高田创：如果能够确认企业的积极行为得以持续，日本央行应继续进一步调整货币 宽松程度。 4. 路透调查：11位经济学家中有10位预计以色列央行将在周一维持基准利率在4.5%不变，其中一位预 期将降息25个基点至4.25%。 欧元/美元 1. ADP就业人数两年多来首次"转负"，利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降息。 2. 贝森特：美联储可能在9月或更早降息。 3. 美联储巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性。 4. 美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）呼吁国会调查美联储主席鲍威尔。 2. 英国首相斯塔默：里 ...

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland's inflation rate has increased in June but remains close to deflation levels, indicating a potential for the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates below zero later this year [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The annual inflation rate in Switzerland for June rose by 0.1% compared to the same month last year, while the inflation rate for May was -0.1% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects this slight increase, suggesting a modest recovery in price levels [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The Swiss National Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to zero last month to curb demand for the Swiss franc [1] - The rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc has negatively impacted demand for Swiss exports, including luxury watches and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 3: Currency Impact - Since the beginning of the year, the Swiss franc has appreciated nearly 15% against the US dollar, leading to lower prices for imported goods and services [1] - This currency strength has contributed to a downward spiral in inflation rates within Switzerland [1]