（原标题：金银铂钯齐涨 贵金属缘何连创新高？） 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 贵金属缘何"牛气冲天"？业内人士普遍认为，金银铂钯的大幅上涨已不是由单一的避险和抗通胀等传统 因素推动，而是美元信用、市场情绪等多重因素"共振"的结果。 "2025年，影响黄金市场的最大因素可能还是投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧。"在世界黄金协 会中国区CEO王立新看来，这是驱动全球央行、机构和个人投资者涌入黄金市场的底层因素。 "美元债务的大幅扩张推动黄金等贵金属成为投资者眼中更安全的资产，其价格也'水涨船高'。"上海息 壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒表示，美联储降息预期提升、地缘政治持续紧张等因素也对金价构成支 撑。 为何今年以来白银、铂金等品种的涨幅更大？业内人士分析称，从需求侧来看，上述贵金属的工业需求 持续增加，支撑其价格走牛。 世界白银协会的报告认为，受益于在导电和导热方面的卓越性能，白银正成为全球经济转型不可或缺的 关键金属之一。其中，光伏和电动汽车产业的快速发展，数据中心和人工智能领域的爆发式扩张，对白 银需求构成支撑。 铂金的前景同样被看好。在工业领域，铂金主要用于生产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have reached new highs, driven by multiple factors including market sentiment and concerns over the U.S. dollar's credibility [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 24, gold prices surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time in history, with Shanghai gold prices reaching 1,017 yuan per gram [1]. - Silver prices have surged nearly 50% in Q4, breaking the $70 per ounce mark on December 23 and continuing to rise above $72 [1]. - Year-to-date, international spot prices for silver and platinum have increased by over 140%, while palladium has risen by over 100%, and gold has increased by over 70% [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The significant rise in precious metals is attributed to a combination of factors, including concerns over U.S. dollar credit and sovereign debt, rather than solely traditional safe-haven and anti-inflation motives [2]. - The expansion of U.S. debt has made precious metals more attractive as safe-haven assets, contributing to rising prices [2]. - Industrial demand for silver and platinum is increasing, particularly due to the growth in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, which supports higher prices [2]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The demand for precious metals has led to increased capital inflow, with major ETFs seeing significant increases in holdings, such as approximately 12 tons of gold and 533 tons of silver on December 23 [3]. - The sustainability of the current bullish trend in precious metals will depend on the ongoing resonance between market demand and investor sentiment [3].

近段时间以来，全球市场上贵金属价格越涨越快，不少金属的现货或期货价格涨势令人咋舌。比如伦敦 现货白银价格近期连续上涨，今年12月以来累计涨幅已接近三成，同期国内白银期货主力合约价格累计 涨幅更已超过四成，较此前几个月的涨幅明显增加；铂和钯的涨势更为惊人，今年12月以来，国内铂期 货和钯期货主力合约价格均累计上涨了逾五成；相较之下，黄金价格近期涨势已算相对"温和"，但在连 续买盘涌入之后，其现货和期货价格均强势突破，创出历史新高。 对于贵金属的投资者而言，由于价格快速上涨，导致较短的时间内投机资金快速涌入，如果交易过于拥 挤形成"超买"，往往容易造成潜在的回调风险，投资者或需对此潜在风险密切留意。对于一些将贵金属 作为生产原材料的企业而言，需要加强存货管理，应对原材料价格波动风险，一些有条件的企业或还可 利用期货套期保值等工具，作好风险对冲。对于监管者而言，也需加强风险提示和投资者教育，及时提 示价格波动风险。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 平心而论，由于影响贵金属价格的因素广泛且复杂，本轮贵金属价格的凌厉涨势究竟会持续到何时、以 及达到何种价位，均存在很大不确定性，难以准确预测，但各类相关主体仍需保持清醒的头脑， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in precious metal prices, particularly silver, driven by both short-term trading dynamics and long-term fundamental factors [1][2] - International gold prices have increased by over 71% year-to-date, while silver prices have surged nearly 150% in the same period [1] - Domestic silver prices have also seen a substantial rise, with a reported increase of 8.12% on the day, leading to an annual increase of over 130% [1] Group 2 - The recent price increases in silver and gold are attributed to macroeconomic conditions and heightened risk aversion, with silver exhibiting stronger price elasticity compared to gold [2] - The gold-silver ratio has contracted to 62:1, indicating that silver is currently undervalued relative to gold, as historical data suggests a typical range of 40:1 to 60:1 [2] - A potential return of the gold-silver ratio to its historical mean of 50:1 could imply significant upside for silver prices, even if gold prices decline [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced declines on December 24, influenced by weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and rising anticipation of Japanese government intervention in the yen's depreciation [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 0.14%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index fell by 0.46% [1]. - The Nikkei index decreased by 68.77 points, closing at 50,344.10 points; the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropped by 15.88 points, ending at 3,407.37 points [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with the airline, insurance, and transportation machinery sectors experiencing the largest drops [2]. - Conversely, nine sectors, including non-ferrous metals, land transportation, and marine transportation, recorded gains [2]. Group 3: Currency Impact - The yen strengthened against the dollar, rising from 157 yen per dollar to the 155 yen range, which negatively impacted export-related stocks, leading to a decline in shares of automobile manufacturers like Toyota [1].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant price increases, particularly in silver, driven by supply constraints and strong demand from various industries, including solar energy and AI [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 24, COMEX gold reached $4,522 per ounce, and London gold was at $4,493 per ounce, with gold prices increasing over 71% year-to-date [1][5]. - COMEX and London silver prices both surpassed $72 per ounce, with silver prices up nearly 150% year-to-date [1][5]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai silver prices surged over 8% in a single day, closing at 17,609.00 yuan per kilogram, marking a year-to-date increase of over 130% [1][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of short-term trading dynamics and long-term fundamental factors, including tight physical supply and historically low inventory levels [1][5]. - The silver supply growth rate is only 2% to 3% annually, while demand from the photovoltaic industry accounts for 55% of industrial silver usage, alongside increasing demand from AI servers and electric vehicles [1][5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Indicators - The gold-silver ratio has contracted to 62:1, indicating that silver has been undervalued compared to gold, with historical ratios typically ranging from 40:1 to 60:1 [6][7]. - If the gold-silver ratio returns to 50:1, silver could rise to $77 per ounce, representing an 11% increase from current levels, or to $86 per ounce if gold prices remain stable, indicating a potential 25% upside [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is in an environment where it is more likely to rise than fall. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January are rising, the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has been digested and turned into a positive support, and the supply of copper ore is tight while the electrolytic copper inventories in LME and SHFE remain at low levels [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, the LME copper price rose and then fell. On Friday (December 19, 2025), the SHFE copper price fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the main 2602 contract was 92,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous trading day's closing price. The lower-than-expected US CPI data and the release of the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's 25 - basis - point interest rate hike on Friday pushed up the copper price [1]. - Today, the domestic spot copper was at a discount of 220 - 90 yuan/ton to the 2601 futures contract. The spot market trading was dull, downstream consumption was mainly for rigid demand, and the trading volume was relatively limited. The spread between refined and scrap copper in major domestic markets declined, with 4040 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 3977 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The US announced that the CPI in November was 2.7%, lower than both the market expectation of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, slightly lower than the market forecast of 225,000. The market believes that US inflation is showing signs of cooling [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Friday, reaching a 30 - year high. The market remained calm as the rate hike was in line with expectations [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook The market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in January is rising. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the negative impact has been exhausted and turned into a positive factor. Coupled with the tight supply of copper ore and the low - level electrolytic copper inventories in LME and SHFE, the copper price is in an environment where it is more likely to rise than fall [10].

12月24日，国投瑞银白银期货证券投资基金（LOF）继续涨停封板，继前两个交易日封板后实现连续 三个交易日涨停。截至发稿，该基金场内价格报3.116元，较最新公布的A类份额净值溢价率高达 68.2%，创下阶段新高。 作为国内公募市场唯一投资白银期货的产品，稀缺性叠加市场情绪推动大量资金涌入二级市场，直接导 致场内价格与基金净值严重背离，溢价率持续攀升。自11月25日启动上涨行情以来，该基金场内价格累 计涨幅已达127%，仅用21个交易日便实现翻倍，全年涨幅甚至高达222.6%。 然而，与其相对应的场外份额年内收益为104.47%，二者出现了相差118个百分点的溢价鸿沟，场内炒 作情绪可见一斑。 针对这一情况，国投瑞银基金近期密集发布风险提示公告。据统计，12月以来该公司已就国投白银LOF 发布15次相关风险提示，并多次采取临时停牌措施。 除此之外，该基金公司还通过调整申购限额的方式调控资金涌入节奏。12月22日，国投瑞银基金发布公 告明确将国投白银LOF的A类基金份额申购金额上限从100元提高至500元，C类份额从1000元降至500 元。12月23日晚，公司再次发布公告称将国投白银LOF的C类份额上限收紧至 ...

中信期货分析指出，现货黄金站上4500美元/盎司，历史首次；黄金上涨逻辑仍然流畅，且在贵金属中 安全边际较高。伴随市场对联储2026年降息预期升温、区域不确定性增加、及圣诞假期和新年假期临 近，为黄金价格提供支撑。美国"低通胀+弱现实+联储换届"的组合利于美联储宽松。此外，1月公布的 非农、通胀等经济数据质量亦有望回升，将对市场提供更多指引。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 12月24日，受委内瑞拉紧张局势升级以及市场预期美联储明年将进一步降息的影响，黄金现货价格首次 突破每盎司 4500 美元大关，再度创下历史新高，COMEX黄金期货价格一度触及4555美元，今年第五 十一个交易日创下新高。白银一度创下每盎司71.856美元的历史新高。 受此催化，黄金有色相关产品表现较强，截至14:53，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.05%，有色金属ETF基 金(516650)探底回升涨0.55%，盘中持续溢价，或为资金抢筹。 ...

Group 1: Economic Insights - The U.S. economy's third-quarter growth exceeded expectations, with a 1.5 percentage point increase attributed to President Trump's tariff policies reducing the trade deficit [1][7] - The strong GDP data is viewed as a "great Christmas gift" for the American people, indicating a significant economic recovery and a return of a large workforce to the labor market [1][7] - The ongoing prosperity in artificial intelligence is driving economic growth while exerting downward pressure on inflation [1][7] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - Japan's authorities are intensifying verbal warnings regarding the depreciation of the yen, indicating a readiness to take "bold actions" against currency fluctuations [2][8] - Market interpretations suggest that Japan's commitment to intervene in the currency market may have received tacit approval from the U.S. [2][8] - The U.S. dollar against the yen is experiencing downward pressure due to profit-taking and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][10] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices are rising, reaching historical highs around 4494, supported by increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions [4][9] - The increase in gold ETF holdings is also contributing to the upward momentum in gold prices [4][9]