CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝高位下挫，LME三个月北京时间14：52报于3190.5美元/吨，较上一交易日 结算价跌5.5美元/吨，跌幅0.17%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2603合约冲高回落，尾盘震荡收阴；开盘价报24500元/吨，盘中最高25005 元/吨，最低24465元/吨，昨日结算24610元/吨，尾盘收至24595元/吨，跌15元，跌幅0.06%；沪铝主力 月2603合约全天成交量777707手减少47846手，持仓量368605手减少2376手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格24650-24690元/吨，涨370元，贴水195-贴水155，跌30 元；广东现货24665-24715元/吨，涨380元，贴水85-贴水35，跌15元；上海地区24640-24680元/吨，涨 370元，贴水205-贴水165，跌30元。 宏观层面，美国12月CPI数据表现温和，环比涨0.3%、同比2.7%，核心CPI环比0.2%、同比2.6%，均低 于市场预期。这强化了市场对美联储今年两次降息的预期，低利率环境利好风险资产，降低持有成本并 吸引资金流入。不过，美国货币政策独立性争议再起，中东局势不确定性 ...

Core Market Trends - US stock index futures collectively declined, with Dow Jones futures down 0.23%, S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.18% [2] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.16%, UK FTSE 100 down 0.03%, France's CAC40 up 0.31%, and Germany's DAX30 up 0.13% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.5%, reaching a new high of 54,341.23 points, marking its second consecutive day of gains [2] Bond Market Movements - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 2 basis points to 4.16%, while the yield on Japan's 30-year government bond increased by 3.5 basis points to 3.515% [3] Currency and Commodity Performance - The US dollar remained stable, while the Japanese yen fluctuated around 159 against the dollar [4] - Spot gold increased by 1% to $4,632.93 per ounce, and spot silver rose to over $91 per ounce, gaining 4.7% [4] - LME copper prices reached a historical high, indicating strong demand in the metals market [4] Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin rose by 0.9% to $94,898.64, and Ethereum increased by 3.8% to $3,331.21 [5] Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Core inflation in the US showed signs of cooling, which briefly boosted market expectations for an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the next cut anticipated in June [5] - The expectation of a rate cut is supporting industrial metal prices, with tin prices on the LME rising by 5% to $52,015 per ton, marking a new historical high [17]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant surge, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising over 4% and surpassing the $95,000 mark for the first time in a week, while Ethereum (ETH) increased by over 7% to around $3,330 [1] - The rise in cryptocurrency prices is attributed to unexpectedly low U.S. inflation data, which has strengthened market expectations for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Political tensions, including a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice to the Federal Reserve, have contributed to a weaker dollar, enhancing the appeal of non-sovereign assets perceived as hedges against central bank policy risks [1] Group 2 - A massive liquidation in the futures market accompanied the recent price surge, with over $688 million in liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours, predominantly from short positions [2] - Approximately 122,000 traders were liquidated, with Binance's Ethereum to Tether (ETHUSDT) contracts accounting for $12.9 million of the total liquidation, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [2] - The imbalance in liquidation structure highlights that traders had heavily bet on a market downturn prior to the inflation data release, which rapidly reversed [2] Group 3 - Traditional stock markets also saw gains, reinforcing the risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market [3] - Asian stock markets reached historical highs, with silver prices breaking $90 per ounce for the first time, while gold remained just below historical peaks [4] - These market movements indicate that investors are increasingly favoring assets that can benefit from a loose financial environment and monetary system turmoil [5]

2026年1月14日，贵金属市场再迎历史性时刻，现货白银开盘强势拉升，首次站上90美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高。截至发稿，现货白银报91.13美元/盎 司，日内涨幅达4.85%，2026年开年以来，白银现货、期货价格累计涨幅已达25%左右，涨势远超市场预期。 银价狂飙市值登顶，贵金属板块应声大涨 银价的持续走高推动白银资产市值大幅攀升，1月14日市值数据平台CompaniesMarketCap数据显示，白银总市值首次突破5万亿美元大关，达5.039万亿美 元，超越芯片巨头英伟达的4.523万亿美元，成为全球第二大资产，黄金则以32.162万亿美元市值稳居榜首。 资本市场对银价大涨迅速作出反应，1月14日上午收盘，A股贵金属板块集体走高，其中湖南白银领涨，涨幅达9.53%，山金国际、四川黄金、中金黄金 等标的纷纷跟涨，贵金属投资热情持续升温。 此次银价飙升背后有明确的基本面支撑，1月13日美国劳工部公布2025年12月通胀数据，CPI同比上涨2.7%、核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，数据公布后，市场 对美联储较早降息的预期升温，交易员押注美联储4月降息概率从38%升至42%，成为白银价格走高的直接推手。而这一轮涨势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver price continues to rise, with London spot silver breaking the $90 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high of $91.551 per ounce, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 25% since 2026 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 14, 2026, the main contract for silver futures in China reached a peak of 22,995 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since its listing, with a recent increase of over 7% [1][3] - The overall trend for silver prices has been a steady upward movement since the beginning of 2026, despite pressures from commodity index adjustments [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Micro-level data indicates that silver is being redistributed among different markets due to tight spot supply, with a notable increase in COMEX silver futures delivery volume and a continuous decline in inventory [2][4] - The proportion of registered warehouse receipts relative to total inventory is decreasing, indicating a rising sentiment of withholding supply, which supports silver prices [2][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Current investment and physical demand for silver remain strong, while potential bearish factors are primarily linked to financial attributes, such as weakening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and a decline in risk sentiment [2][4] - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January has further diminished, suggesting that financial bearish factors are now relatively limited [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, driven by U.S. inflation data and geopolitical uncertainties, while highlighting the role of the company in providing investment insights and strategies to capitalize on market movements [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 13, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,634 per ounce before retracting, with the final close at $4,585.95 per ounce, reflecting a 0.26% decline [2]. - Silver prices also saw significant movement, hitting a historical peak of $89.12 per ounce before closing at $86.91 per ounce, marking a 2.14% increase [2]. - The U.S. inflation report indicated a year-on-year CPI of 2.7% for December, with core CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month, which was below market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and U.S. relations, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. - The potential for military action and new tariffs on countries trading with Iran has further escalated concerns, providing additional support for gold prices [5]. - The situation in Ukraine and other geopolitical events have also contributed to a strong demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver [6]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The article emphasizes that despite short-term volatility, the bullish trend for gold is likely to continue, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks [8]. - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming U.S. retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which are critical indicators of economic resilience and inflation trends [8]. - The company offers real-time communication with analysts to help investors navigate market conditions and optimize their investment strategies [1][2].

文 | 史玥明 来源 | 光大期货微资讯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 共性驱动：三大核心因素撑起贵金属牛市根基 01 2026年开年的贵金属市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过。1月14日，现货白银首次突破90美元，再创历史新高，新年首月累计涨幅 已远超市场预期。一边是投资者涌入贵金属ETF、相关LOF基金份额屡创新高的狂热，一边是芝商所一个月内三次上调保证金、彭博 指数调整引发被动减仓的降温信号。 图源：wind 无论是黄金的稳步攀升，还是白银的暴力突破，本质上都是多重宏观变量共振的结果。梳理当前市场环境，地缘政治风险升温、美联储 降息预期强化、全球战略储备需求激增，这三大共性因素构成了贵金属上涨的核心支撑，且每一个因素都有明确的数据与事件佐证。 1. 地缘政治"风暴眼"持续扩容，避险需求空前高涨 贵金属的避险属性，在全球地缘冲突加剧的背景下被无限放大。进入2026年，全球地缘政治的"火药味"明显变浓，从美洲到中东再到北 极，多重冲突点叠加，直接推升了市场对贵金属的配置需求。 最受关注的莫过于特朗普政府的对外政策动向。据央视新闻报道，美国官员透露，特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案，包括向中东派 遣航 ...

Group 1: Inflation Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 in the U.S. was +0.31%, in line with expectations, while core CPI was +0.24%, below the expected +0.30%[3] - Year-on-year CPI increased by 2.68%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.64%, slightly below the expected 2.70%[3] - The weaker-than-expected core CPI was primarily influenced by declines in used car prices, a price war among telecom companies, and seasonal factors, which are expected to have a short-term impact[3] Group 2: Economic Projections - For Q1 2026, there are upward risks to U.S. non-farm payroll and inflation data due to fiscal and monetary impulses, as well as seasonal factors[2] - The fiscal impulse for Q1 2026 is estimated to boost U.S. GDP by 2.79%, largely due to the end of government shutdowns[2] - Cumulative interest rate cuts of 75 basis points since September 2025 are expected to stimulate the economy in Q1 2026[2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of the weaker core CPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, leading to rises in U.S. stocks and gold, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index fell[3] - However, asset prices later partially retraced the volatility caused by the monetary easing trades[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from Trump, excessive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[4]

Inflation Data Summary - December CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to an average increase of 0.1% in October and November[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%, consistent with the previous value[4] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching the prior year's growth[4] Price Components - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, down from a previous 4.2%[7] - Food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to a prior increase of 2.6%[7] - Core goods prices remained flat, with used car prices dropping by 1.1% month-on-month, indicating weak durable goods demand[8] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 remained stable, with FedWatch indicating an average of 2.2 cuts (56.2 basis points) compared to 2.1 cuts (51.6 basis points) prior to the data release[8] - The overall CPI and core inflation performance aligned with market expectations, indicating a moderate inflation environment[8] Future Outlook - Confirmation of the inflation path requires one to two "cleaner" data windows, with potential upward pressures from delayed economic activity due to government shutdowns and tariff pass-through effects starting in early 2026[9] - Downward pressures include falling crude oil prices and declining food commodity indices, alongside indicators suggesting a downward trend in housing rent CPI growth[9]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surpassed $90 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by various market factors including inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. Price Movements - On January 14, spot silver prices rose to $90.004 per ounce, marking a 3.41% increase from the previous close of $86.919 [3]. - COMEX silver also saw significant gains, with an intraday increase exceeding 4%, closing at $89.900, up 3.88% from the previous close of $86.338 [4]. - The Shanghai silver futures contracts experienced a rise of over 7%, with year-to-date gains exceeding 30% [4]. Market Capitalization - The market capitalization of silver has surpassed $5 trillion, exceeding the market cap of NVIDIA, which stands at $4.52 trillion [5]. Global Market Context - The current price of silver is $89.82, reflecting a 4.03% increase, while gold is priced at $4,630, up 0.68% [6]. - Other precious metals such as platinum and palladium have also shown notable price increases [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. inflation data has reinforced market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contributing to rising demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [7]. - The core consumer price index in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below market expectations, which has influenced investor sentiment regarding monetary policy [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts from Citigroup have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver over the next three months to $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively [8]. - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a shift in silver pricing dynamics since 2022, with a notable short-term supply shortage emerging due to various factors, including U.S. trade policies and increased industrial demand [8].