Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]

Group 1: Market Trends and Financial Metrics - The CDS prices of large tech companies are significantly lower than the overall level of high-yield bonds, with Oracle at 118.8 basis points compared to a basket of high-yield bonds at 341.6 basis points[4] - The total debt to EBITDA ratio for S&P 500 companies has dropped to 3.6 times, the lowest level in 30 years, compared to 5.1 times for MSCI World Index constituents[7] - The capital expenditure to free cash flow ratio for S&P 500 companies is at 0.7, below the global average of 0.8, indicating conservative spending[10] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - Part-time employment has rebounded, potentially boosting U.S. employment data in the second half of the year, with voluntary part-time workers reaching 22.89 million, a five-month high[16] - Non-farm employment growth in the first half of the year was primarily driven by full-time jobs, while the second half may see a shift towards part-time jobs[16] Group 3: Risk and Investment Insights - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is at 4.6%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, suggesting potential for valuation uplift[18] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is at 27 basis points, 57 basis points higher than in December 2016, indicating improved returns[21] - The copper-gold price ratio has decreased to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.1, signaling diverging trends in demand and currency valuation[26]

这份汇集201家保险公司、34家保险资产管理公司调研数据的权威报告，不仅记录了保险资金投资资产的流动轨迹，更描画出行业在波动市场中的收益情 况。综合收益率方面，2024年，保险公司综合收益率集中区间较2023年显著上升；保险资管行业整体投资收益率显著高于上一年度。在业内人士看来，对于 保险公司、保险资管公司而言，正处于迈向专业化、市场化的关键转折点，如何在复杂经济环境中稳步前行成为命题作文。 万亿险资的"进退之道" 当债券利率持续走低、优质非标资产供给减少的"资产荒"渐成常态，保险资金如何破局？ 《报告》显示，2024年，参与调研的201家保险公司投资资产规模合计30.55万亿元，同比增长16.93%。从资产配置结构来看，2024年末，保险资金继续保持 较为稳健的配置结构，以利率债、信用债和股票投资为主，合计占比59%，同比上升1.4个百分点。 深入资产配置的肌理，2024年，现金及流动性资产占比2.9%，同比下降1个百分点；银行存款占比6.9％，同比下降0.1个百分点；股票占比8.3%，同比上升 0.9个百分点，其中股票成为屈指可数的增长领域。 规模达数十万亿元的保险资金最新动向出炉。11月24日，中国银行 ...

以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与您相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 投资理财，有温度，有深度，有态度。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：兴证全球基金 来源：雪球 上周以来 ， A股市场大幅回撤 ， 上证指数上周下跌-3.9% ， 创业板指跌-6.15% （ 数据来源于wind ， 数据区间2025/11/17-2025/11/21 ） ， 面对市场的波动 ， 如何从容应对 。 我们试图通过梳理过往伯克希尔致股东的信 ， 探寻巴菲特与芒格对待市场波动时的智慧 ， 更重要的是 ， 我们也能从中窥见 ， 巴菲特与芒格在 面对市场波澜时的思想进化历程 。 " 真正重要的是独立思考而不是投票表决 "—— 1990年 宏观背景 ： 第三次石油危机 1990年 ， 第三次石油危机爆发 ， 中东地区局势持续震荡 ， 全球对美国经济衰退的担忧 ， 使得美股经历了自1981年以来的最差年份 。 伯克 希尔在当年的致股东信中这样写道 ： 当然以上所述并不代表不受欢迎或注意的股票或企业就是好的投资标的 ， 反向操作有可能与从众心理一样的愚蠢 ...

Market Outlook - The current market is characterized as a structural bull market rather than a broad-based rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark. Recent pullbacks have been observed in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and AI, indicating increased rotation between sectors and heightened difficulty in generating profits [1][2]. Investment Strategy - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, avoiding concentration in a single asset class. This includes a mix of equities, bonds, and commodities (such as gold and oil) to mitigate risks during market downturns [2][3]. Asset Allocation - Effective asset allocation requires timing, positioning, and appropriate proportions across different assets. For average investors, achieving this independently can be challenging, thus engaging professional investment institutions for fund combinations is advisable. For conservative investors, options like "fixed income plus" products are available, with varying equity and bond ratios to meet different risk appetites [3][4]. Timing Strategy - Timing is one of the most challenging aspects of investing, with low success rates for both retail and professional investors. The fund manager Liu Zhihui has demonstrated effective timing in managing the Guangfa Jihui Bond Fund, notably reducing equity exposure during market downturns and increasing convertible bond allocations during favorable conditions [4][7]. Sector Selection - The Guangfa Jihui Bond Fund has successfully capitalized on structural opportunities by focusing on specific sectors. For instance, a significant allocation to the coal sector was made, which accounted for 28.3% of the equity allocation in mid-2021, reflecting a strategic sector bias that contributed to the fund's performance [9][10]. Stock Selection - The fund manager has shown a distinctive approach in stock selection, maintaining positions in leading companies within their sectors. For example, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company was consistently among the top holdings, achieving a maximum price fluctuation of 205.77% during its holding period [16][17]. Performance Metrics - The Guangfa Jihui Bond Fund has demonstrated resilience, achieving positive returns even during market downturns. For instance, in 2021, the fund recorded a return of 7.96% while the broader market indices declined significantly [12][14]. Conclusion - The experience and strategic capabilities of the fund manager in navigating macroeconomic cycles and market conditions highlight the potential benefits of professional management in achieving stable returns through diversified asset allocation. The Guangfa Jihui Bond Fund, managed by Liu Zhihui, is positioned as a noteworthy option for investors seeking both stability and growth opportunities in a fluctuating market environment [20][21].

格隆汇11月24日丨中原内配(002448.SZ)公布，为进一步提升公司资源整合能力，优化资产配置， 中原内配集团股份有限公司拟以0元价格受让焦作通财创新创业投资基金(有限合伙)(简称"焦作通财")持 有的河南空天产业基金合伙企业(有限合伙)(简称"河南空天产业基金"或"合伙企业")对应认缴出资 5,000.00万元(实缴出资额0元)的合伙份额，并作为有限合伙人与河南空天产业基金其他合伙人签订合伙 协议，履行出资义务。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the "copper-oil ratio" as a leading indicator for economic and market trends, providing insights for asset allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicator - The copper-oil ratio serves as a "thermometer" for the economy, with rising ratios indicating economic recovery and active industrial activity, while falling ratios suggest economic slowdown or "stagflation" risks [4][5]. - The copper price is closely tied to industrial demand and economic growth, while oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-side issues [3][4]. Group 2: Market Prediction - The copper-oil ratio typically leads the performance of the A-share market by 3-5 months, allowing for predictions about future market directions based on current trends [5]. - Historical data shows that a rebound in the copper-oil ratio often precedes a bottoming out of the A-share market, as seen in the post-October 2018 period [5]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Framework - A four-quadrant framework, similar to the "Merrill Clock," is proposed for optimizing asset allocation based on the copper-oil ratio's state [9][10]. - The framework suggests different asset allocation strategies depending on the copper-oil ratio's movement, such as overweighting stocks during economic recovery and favoring cash and defensive assets during stagflation risks [10]. Group 4: Limitations and Considerations - The copper-oil ratio has limitations and should be used in conjunction with other indicators like macroeconomic data and market sentiment for comprehensive analysis [11]. - Structural demand for copper from the renewable energy sector is highlighted as a long-term support for copper prices, but potential risks from monetary policy tightening and geopolitical conflicts are noted [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market downturn, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a long-term investment strategy and emotional stability during periods of volatility [5][6][33]. Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a significant decline, with the CSI All Share Index dropping by 5.05% over five consecutive days, marking one of the largest declines since the current bull market began [5]. - Following the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points, market volatility has increased, leading to divergent opinions among investors [5][6]. Group 2: Psychological Aspects of Investing - The article highlights the psychological challenges investors face during market corrections, including feelings of confusion, fear, and regret, especially for those who entered the market recently [8][10][12]. - It notes that experienced investors tend to manage their emotions better and adhere to their strategies, while new investors may react impulsively [12][34]. Group 3: Strategies for High Volatility - Investors are advised to review their holdings, ensuring that core broad-based indices remain a stable foundation in their portfolios [15]. - Maintaining discipline in investment plans is crucial, as market downturns can present opportunities to buy undervalued assets [18]. - The importance of patience and a long-term perspective is emphasized, as true investment success requires time and resilience [22][24]. Group 4: Key Questions During Market Corrections - The article addresses common concerns during downturns, such as what to do if previously purchased assets are now at a loss, suggesting that long-term fundamentals should guide decisions [25]. - It advises against trying to time the market for bottom-fishing, instead recommending a focus on long-term valuation and asset allocation strategies [26][29]. - Investors are encouraged to refine their strategies before increasing positions, ensuring that decisions are based on comprehensive market analysis rather than short-term fluctuations [30][31].

Group 1 - The Shanghai 180 Index (000010) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with GAC Group (601238) leading with a 10.00% increase, followed by AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760) up 3.59%, and 360 Security Technology (601360) up 3.49%. Industrial Fulian (601138) is the biggest loser [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) is currently priced at 1.17 yuan, reflecting the performance of the Shanghai 180 Index, which selects 180 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from the Shanghai stock market [1] - Dongguan Securities indicates that factors such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy guidance, capital market policy developments, and the backdrop of declining interest rates continue to positively influence the market [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Zijin Mining (601899), and Ping An Insurance (601318), with these stocks collectively accounting for 26.29% of the index [2] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund has several off-market connection options, including Ping An's various linked funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - In the current low-interest, high-volatility environment, there is a significant increase in investor demand for low-volatility, absolute return products as traditional investment yields decline [2][8] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Liu Xin, the assistant general manager and head of asset allocation at Minsheng Jianyin Fund, emphasizes a pragmatic approach focused on manageable issues rather than short-term market predictions, aiming for long-term success through diversified FOF portfolios [2][5][7] - The investment philosophy is rooted in "respecting the market" and "weakness thinking," acknowledging market complexity and individual limitations, and prioritizing solvable investment problems over elusive predictions [7][8] Group 2: FOF Strategy - The Minsheng Jianyin Fund has shifted its FOF investment strategy from selecting star fund managers to a diversified asset allocation approach, utilizing a "localized all-weather" strategy that balances risk across various asset classes [10][12] - The strategic allocation is based on risk parity models and long-term asset characteristics, ensuring that portfolio risk is not dominated by any single high-volatility asset [11][12] Group 3: Market Outlook - Liu Xin holds a relatively optimistic and strategic view on the A-share market, citing its reasonable valuation and sustainable upward trend, making it a core equity asset for future portfolios [14] - The team has identified the Korean stock market as undervalued and has made a contrarian investment in related funds, which has yielded significant returns [15] Group 4: Bond and Commodity Strategy - Bonds are viewed as a stabilizing component of the portfolio, with a focus on interest rate bonds for risk hedging rather than yield generation, while credit bonds are selected based on the management team's risk control capabilities [15] - The team has strategically reduced bond duration based on market conditions but maintains a higher duration compared to industry standards [15] Group 5: New Product Launch - A new fund, Minsheng Jianyin Multi-Asset Stable Allocation 3-Month Holding Period Mixed FOF, is set to launch, implementing the "localized all-weather" strategy and focusing on dynamic asset allocation [16]