Economic Overview - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, supported by a contribution rate of 52% from final consumption expenditure [1][2][8] - The economic growth rate of 5.3% is an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year [2][14] Key Economic Indicators - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of the year, indicating overall employment stability [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a low and stable price level, with a return to positive growth in June at 0.1% after four months of negative growth [10][12] - The international balance of payments remained stable, with record high import and export figures in goods trade [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.9 trillion yuan, growing by 2.8%, with a nominal decline attributed to significant decreases in production material prices [4][6] - The actual growth rate of fixed asset investment, excluding price factors, was 5.3%, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous year but an increase compared to the entire previous year [4][6] Consumption Dynamics - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, indicating a steady increase in consumer spending [7][8] - Holiday consumption, particularly during the Spring Festival, May Day, and Dragon Boat Festival, significantly boosted retail sales, with foreign tourist numbers increasing due to expanded visa-free policies [8] - The growth in service retail outpaced that of goods retail, with a notable rise in sectors related to travel and leisure [8] Price Trends - The CPI's recovery in June was driven by rising industrial consumer goods prices and seasonal factors affecting food supply [10][12] - The overall price adjustment reflects the ongoing transition from traditional to new economic drivers, with traditional sectors facing downward pressure while new sectors continue to grow [13]

Economic Growth Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, indicating a stable economic performance despite external pressures [1][2] - The growth rate exceeded market expectations, reflecting the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy, supported by macroeconomic policies and improvements in exports and service consumption [2][3] Consumption as a Growth Driver - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year, with projections of 82.5% and 44.5% for 2023 and 2024 respectively [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% in the first half, driven by policies promoting consumption, although the growth was still weaker than overall economic growth [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 24.9 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 2.8%, lower than the previous year, but the actual growth rate adjusted for price changes was 5.3% [5][6] - Investment fluctuations were attributed to external complexities, price declines, and cautious investment decisions by market participants, particularly in traditional industries like real estate [5][6] Challenges and Future Outlook - Experts predict a potential slowdown in GDP growth in the second half due to various internal and external challenges, including weak consumer confidence and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [8][10] - Recommendations include enhancing fiscal policies, accelerating public investment, and maintaining liquidity to support economic stability and growth [10][11]

消费表现亮眼。 7月15日，中国上半年经济"成绩单"出炉。初步核算，上半年国内生产总值（GDP）为66.05万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。分季度看，一季度GDP同比 增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。从环比看，二季度GDP增长1.1%。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上表示，上半年，国民经济顶压前行、稳定运行，主要指标好于预期，高质量发展扎实推进，经济保持了稳中有进、 稳中向好的发展态势。 对于下半年经济运行，盛来运表示，在政策的推动下，消费会继续保持良好发展态势，对经济增长的"压舱石"作用会继续显现。新产业、新业态、新模式将继续保 持较快增长速度。近期有关部门加快推出下半年政策，会继续为经济稳定运行发挥关键支撑作用。 其中，二季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率52.3%，较一季度略有提升；资本形成总额贡献率24.7%，货物和服务净出口贡献率23%。 "稳"是上半年经济运行突出特征 "上半年一个很突出的特点是经济运行'稳'。" 盛来运表示，从观察宏观经济四大指标看，经济增长稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百 分点。调查失业率方面，整体保持平稳，今年以来，月度调查 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan (3.7% growth), the secondary industry was 239,050 billion yuan (5.3% growth), and the tertiary industry was 390,314 billion yuan (5.5% growth) [2] - The GDP growth for Q1 was 5.4% and for Q2 was 5.2%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.4%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading at 10.2% and 9.5% respectively [3] - Emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots saw production increases of 43.1%, 36.2%, and 35.6% respectively, indicating enhanced technological innovation and a solidified position in the global supply chain [3] Service Sector Growth - The tertiary industry increased by 5.5%, with modern service sectors like information transmission, software, and IT services showing significant growth [3] - Despite the manufacturing purchasing manager index remaining in contraction territory, the business activity expectation index reached 52.0, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3] Consumer Insights - The per capita disposable income for residents was 21,840 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.3%, aligning with GDP growth [4] - Retail sales in various categories showed significant growth, including food and beverage (12.3%), sports and entertainment goods (22.2%), and household appliances (30.7%) [4] Policy Impact - Supply-side growth is supported by the development of technology-intensive industries and targeted macro policies, such as tax incentives for high-end manufacturing and financing support for SMEs [4] - Consumer policies, such as trade-in programs and subsidies, have stimulated short-term consumption and pressured companies to accelerate technological upgrades, creating a virtuous cycle of consumption and industrial upgrades [5] Future Outlook - The consumption market is expected to remain active in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing consumer policies [5] - The cycle of income growth, consumption upgrade, and industrial transformation is anticipated to drive high-quality economic development [5]

Economic Growth Overview - China's GDP growth for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2, indicating a stable yet progressive economic environment [1] - The growth figures reflect a collaborative effort across various industries, showcasing economic resilience and vitality [5] Industry Performance - The primary industry added value of 3,172 billion, growing by 3.7% [5] - The secondary industry added value of 23,050 billion, growing by 5.3% [5] - The tertiary industry added value of 39,014 billion, growing by 5.5% [5] Strategic Insights - The coordinated performance across industries is perceived as a "high IQ" strategy to prevent vulnerabilities by not relying solely on one or two sectors [7] - This approach aims to create an impression of a robust economy, making it difficult for external entities to target specific weaknesses [7]

上半年中国经济同比增长5.3%。（新华社） ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth rate in the second quarter is expected to slow slightly compared to the first quarter but is still projected to exceed 5% due to various supportive policies and resilient domestic demand [1][2]. Economic Growth - The average forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter is 5.07%, with expectations of a slight decline from the first quarter [1][3]. - High-frequency data indicates continued improvement in industrial production, consumption, and investment, supporting the overall economic outlook [1][3][4]. Industrial Production - Industrial production is expected to maintain stability, with a predicted year-on-year growth rate of 5.6% in June, slightly down from 5.8% in May [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [6][7]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth is anticipated to slow to 5.66% in June, down from 6.4% in May, influenced by the end of holiday demand and the tapering effects of promotional activities [8][9]. - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted the retail sales of major appliances, with a year-on-year increase of 28% in the second quarter [9]. Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be around 3.65% in June, slightly lower than the previous month, with challenges in real estate and manufacturing sectors impacting overall investment sentiment [10][11]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, supported by the issuance of special bonds and government funding for key projects [12][13].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" in China is expected to conclude with an economic increment exceeding 35 trillion RMB, equivalent to the combined economic output of China's top three provinces and surpassing the GDP of the world's third-largest economy [1][2] - Major indicators outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" have shown progress in line with expectations, with eight indicators exceeding expectations, including urbanization rate and comprehensive production capacity for food and energy [1] - Over the past five years, China's economic strength has significantly increased, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth, with an average growth rate of 5.5% [2] Economic Development - China's total economic output has consistently crossed significant thresholds, reaching approximately 140 trillion RMB this year, with a total increment expected to exceed 35 trillion RMB [1] - The economic increment is comparable to the total economic output of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, highlighting China's substantial economic growth [1][2] - The resilience of China's economy in maintaining growth amidst various risks and challenges is noted as unprecedented in economic history [2]

Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The summer travel season has initiated, with Baidu migration index showing a year-on-year increase of 18.2% and domestic flights up by 2.9%[2] - The production of raw materials is recovering, supported by stable prices, with steel output and apparent demand increasing by 0.5% and 1.4% respectively this week[2][5] Group 2: Industrial Sector Insights - The production of five major steel varieties has increased, with glass and asphalt operating rates also improving[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization has shown marginal adjustments, while the textile polyester operating rate has rebounded[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities have seen a decline in average daily transaction area, with a month-on-month decrease noted at the beginning of July[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has decreased by 0.28% as of June 23[2] Group 4: Domestic Demand Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.032 million units in June, marking a 15% year-on-year growth[2] - Major home appliance retail sales increased by 10.9% year-on-year as of June 27, indicating sustained consumer demand[2] Group 5: External Demand and Risks - Port cargo throughput increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 3.1%[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2][32]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 4 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 利率现券： 银行间各主要期限利率现券收益率多数下行，变动幅度较窄，至下午 16：30， 10 年国债活跃券 250011 收益率报 1.6395%下行 0.05bp。 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月3日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成 ...