Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - For aluminum, with good domestic apparent demand, high proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products, and supply disruptions overseas, hold long - term on dips due to the low inventory [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the spread between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but there are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mining end and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [3]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,200 - 17,500. It is recommended to wait and see the resumption of secondary lead production and the increase of warehouse receipts [6]. - For tin, in the short - term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price has a large downward space; in the long - term, hold on dips near the cost line [7]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [8]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of "anti - involution", the price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances are realized, and there is strong downward support before that. If the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - Market sentiment was dominated by tariff negotiation progress this week. After the China - US negotiation, the bullish news was digested, and the copper price tested the support of the 10 - day moving average. The downstream copper开工 rate decreased, but the inventory showed a slight de - stocking pattern [1]. - Some mines were reported to enter the market for hedging at the price of $11,000. There may be medium - sized deliveries of LME copper in the near future [1]. Aluminum - Domestic apparent demand was good, the proportion of molten aluminum was at a high level, and both aluminum ingots and various aluminum products were de - stocking. Overseas supply was affected by potential production stoppages [1]. - The improvement of China - US economic and trade relations and the Fed's decision to stop balance - sheet reduction led to a marginal improvement in demand [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated upward this week. The treatment charges (TC) for domestic and imported zinc concentrates accelerated their decline. The domestic zinc concentrate supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2]. - The Huoshaoyun zinc ingot officially started production in November, with an expected monthly output of 8,000 - 10,000 tons. The total supply is expected to increase by about 8,000 tons month - on - month, but the market acceptance needs further observation [2]. - Domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe was average. Some overseas smelters faced production difficulties due to processing fees. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak, and the premiums were stable recently. Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [3]. - There were continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side had the motivation to support prices [3]. Lead - The lead price declined this week due to the production cut of downstream lead users. The supply of scrap lead was weak year - on - year, and the recovery of secondary lead production was slow [6]. - The demand for lead batteries decreased, and the finished - product inventory was high. The supply - demand mismatch was serious, and the spot premium in Hunan continued to rise [6]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 75, and the five - region social inventory was at a historical low of 29,800 tons. The spot tightness was not significantly relieved [6]. Tin - The tin price oscillated this week. The processing fees at the mining end were at a low level, and the supply improved marginally after the maintenance of Yunnan Tin ended [6][7]. - There were differences in the output of the Wa State in Myanmar, and the Indonesian tin exports may recover to normal in 2026, but there were short - term production stoppages due to anti - smuggling efforts [7]. - The demand was mainly supported by rigidity at high prices, and the overseas LME inventory oscillated at a low level and recovered [7]. Industrial Silicon - The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, and the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. The supply - demand of industrial silicon in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of about 30,000 tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price dropped rapidly on Friday due to the rumor of the resumption of production of Jiangxi mines. The overseas mines firmly supported the price, and the market supply of concentrated ore was tight [8]. - Lithium salt producers were reluctant to sell due to inventory reduction and high downstream开工 rates. The downstream was mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the trading volume above 80,000 yuan was small [8]. Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month. The demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable [11]. - The inventory was at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The fundamentals were generally weak [11].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 03 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 ——利率周报（2025.10.27-2025.11.2） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 回落明显，债市处于顺风期 报告核心观点：中美经贸谈判进展与美联储降息内外联动，叠加公募基金新规（征 求意见稿）出炉，多维度影响经济与市场。中美取消部分关税、暂停管制及解决 TikTok 问题，缓解出口压力，稳定外贸并刺激制造业投资，或支撑 Q4 经济。美联储 10 月 末降息 25BP 并将于 12 月结束缩表，或缓解全球流动性压力，可能收窄中美利差并 吸引外资回流，或为国内货币政策释放更大操作空间。公募基金新规推动业绩比较 基准规范管理，优化信息披露等机制，可能主要影响主动权益基金，或使机构提升 投研及风控能力，头部机构优势或持续凸显，中小机构产品或需差异化发展。 本周（10/27-11/2）市场概览： 其他要闻：中国人民 ...

#中美应落实两国元首釜山会晤共识#【#美国财长称可能对华加征关税#，外交部回应】11月3日，外交 部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。法新社记者提问，美国财长贝森特昨日表示，如果中国继续阻碍稀土出 口，美国可能会对华加征关税。中方对此有何回应？"关于中国的稀土出口管制政策，中方主管部门已 经多次阐明了立场。中美经贸团队吉隆坡磋商的成果充分说明，对话和合作是解决问题的正确途径，威 胁和施压无助于问题的解决。"毛宁表示，当务之急是中美双方应当认真落实两国元首釜山会晤达成的 重要共识，为中美的经贸合作和世界经济注入更多的稳定性。（记者 李治宏 视频：证券时报券中社） ...

入更多的稳定性。 对此，发言人毛宁表示，关于中国的稀土出口管制政策，中方主管部门已经多次阐明了立场。中美经贸 团队吉隆坡磋商的成果充分说明，对话和合作是解决问题的正确途径，威胁和施压无助于问题的解决。 当务之急是中美双方应当认真落实两国元首釜山会晤达成的重要共识，为中美的经贸合作和世界经济注 编辑｜钉钉 来源｜环球网 在11月3日外交部例行记者会上，有记者提问称，美国财长贝森特昨日表示，如果中国继续阻止稀土出 口，美国可能会对华加征关税。中方对此有何回应？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes dialogue and cooperation as the correct approach to resolve issues related to rare earth exports, countering threats and pressure from the U.S. [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **China's Position on Rare Earth Exports** - The Chinese authorities have reiterated their stance on the export control policy for rare earths, indicating that they have clarified their position multiple times [1] - **U.S.-China Economic Relations** - The outcomes of the recent economic discussions in Kuala Lumpur highlight that dialogue and cooperation are essential for addressing trade issues [1] - **Call for Implementation of Agreements** - There is an urgent need for both China and the U.S. to earnestly implement the important consensus reached during the recent meeting between the two countries' leaders in Busan, aiming to enhance stability in economic cooperation and the global economy [1]

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-11-3 研究员 姓名：李津文 F0244287 Z0012495 冲高回落，仍需整理 行情回顾: 从业资格号： 上周四个股指期货品种走势冲高回落震荡整理，其中上证 50 和沪深 300 调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度走 势分化，但大部分主力合约合约仍保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合 约期货-现货基差，IH 收于 3.65，IF 收于-9.27，IC 收于-88.6， IM 收于-138.47。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场以为主基调，虽然沪指触及 4000 点以上位置并 创近 10 年新高，但随后的回落也反映出市场信心的不足。当前月 线运行到历史压力上，还没有形成有效突破，如果不能维持强势市 场，调整的概率在逐步增大。截至上周，板块已经出现了轮动，能 源、电池和光伏设备等板块在本周表现强势的特征，大幅拉升。另 外，这是市场在这个位置横向运动 8 周后首次向上，但新高并未脱 离这个区间，没有特殊事件的影响和资金的强势拉升，这个位置的 上攻短期不具备持续性。 综合分析： 宏观方面，2025 年 10 月 30 日上午，中美元首在韩国釜山举 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level has no unexpected positive news. Fundamentally, both supply and demand of rebar increase while inventory decreases. Coupled with raw material supply disruptions, there is support for short - term rebar prices [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Rebar Futures Market Review 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: As of the end of September, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year, down 0.4% from last month; M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year - on - year, up 1.2% from last month; M0 balance was 13.58 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year - on - year, down 0.2% from last month. In the first three quarters, net cash injection was 761.9 billion yuan. From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, down 0.5% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas and water production and supply) up 1.1% year - on - year. National real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, down 13.9% year - on - year; residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, down 12.9% year - on - year. Newly - built commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, down 5.5% year - on - year [8]. - Policy information: On October 30, local time, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan. After the meeting, the US cancelled the 10% fentanyl tariff, extended the 10% reciprocal tariff for one year, suspended the entity list penetration rule in the technology field for one year, and suspended the special port - calling fees for Chinese - related ships calling at US ports for one year. China adjusted counter - measures related to fentanyl tariffs, suspended a series of rare - earth export control measures issued on October 9 for one year, and suspended counter - measures against US maritime measures for one year. The two countries will also strengthen fentanyl anti - drug cooperation and expand agricultural product trade [7]. 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Price Ratio, Basis 3.2.1 Price Ratio - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai, hot - rolled coil Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai, PB powder 61.5%Fe in Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Qingdao Port, and low - sulfur main coking coal were 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,350 yuan/ton, 802 yuan/ton, 1,570 yuan/ton, and 1,466 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly price increases were 0.31%, 0.91%, 2.81%, 3.29%, and 0.75% respectively; monthly price increases were 0.00%, 0.00%, 3.34%, 6.80%, and 3.64% respectively; annual price changes were - 8.76%, - 5.40%, 5.09%, - 16.93%, and - 14.59% respectively [23]. 3.2.2 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis data from October 21 to October 30, 2025, showed that the basis (spot - futures) ranged from 104 to 157 yuan/ton [24]. 3.3 Part 3: Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Spot - Futures) - No specific content provided 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 81.75% on October 31, 2025, and 84.71% on October 24, 2025 [36]. 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Operation - No specific content provided 3.3.6 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided 3.3.7 Weekly Steel Output - On October 31, 2025, the output of five major steel products was 789.32 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.005746614 and a month - on - month increase of 0.012922682 [45]. 3.3.8 Weekly Rebar Output - On October 31, 2025, rebar output was 212.59 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.026657652 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.125935367 [49]. 3.3.9 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - The steel mill inventory data showed fluctuations, with values such as 171.71, 184.63, 184.64, 192.34, and 158.91, and corresponding month - on - month changes [60]. 3.3.10 Social Inventory of Steel Products - The social inventory data showed values such as 430.81, 437.49, 456.41, 467.31, and 443.34, and corresponding month - on - month changes [60]. 3.3.11 Rebar Social Inventory - The rebar social inventory data showed values such as 430.81, 437.49, 456.41, 467.31, 443.34, and 471.89, and corresponding month - on - month changes [65]. 3.3.12 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided 3.3.13 Rebar Inventory in Steel Mills - No specific content provided 3.3.14 Total Rebar Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.15 Rebar Apparent Consumption - No specific content provided 3.4 Part 4: Future Outlook - Supply: Some steel mills increased production, and with the allocation of hot metal among varieties, rebar production continued to rise this week. The supply of five major steel products was 875.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.97 million tons, or 1.2%. Rebar weekly output was 212.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.52 million tons [76]. - Demand: At the end of the traditional peak season, terminal consumption showed some resilience this week. The weekly consumption of five major steel products was 916.42 million tons, with building materials consumption up 5.1% week - on - week and plate consumption up 1.3% week - on - week. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1513.74 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.13 million tons, or 2.6% [77]. - Raw materials: The supply of imported iron ore remained stable. China strengthened safety inspections on coal mines, restricting coal production. Coupled with a brief impact on Mongolian coal imports, the supply of coal and coke was weak, and there was support for prices [77].

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - November 3, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of precious metals continued to adjust last week. The easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations reduced market risk aversion, and Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3][6]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% - 4.00% last Wednesday, the second rate cut this year. Powell was cautious about future rate cuts, which cooled investors' expectations of further monetary easing, leading to an increase in US bond yields and a stronger dollar [3][7]. - Given the current easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations and the reduced expectation of a December rate cut due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the view that gold and silver prices are in a phase adjustment is maintained. Even if there are short - term rebounds due to data, the medium - term adjustment trend of gold and silver remains unchanged. The announcement of gold - related tax policies may affect domestic investment sentiment and increase the volatility of domestic gold prices on Monday [3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 921.92 | -16.18 | -1.72 | 156891 | 178255 | Yuan/Gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 921.02 | 24.33 | 2.71 | 54322 | 247700 | Yuan/Gram | | COMEX Gold | 4013.40 | -113.50 | -2.75 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | | SHFE Silver | 11441 | 109 | 0.96 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/Kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 11410 | 414 | 3.77 | 1394914 | 4355604 | Yuan/Kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 48.25 | -0.16 | -0.33 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The prices of precious metals continued to adjust last week. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and Powell's hawkish remarks led to a decrease in the expectation of a December rate cut, maintaining the view of a phase adjustment in gold and silver prices [3][6][8]. - The Fed cut rates last Wednesday, and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts led to an increase in US bond yields and a stronger dollar [3][7]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and the US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, while the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% unchanged for the third time, and the eurozone's Q3 GDP growth was better than expected [7][11]. - The Japanese central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% unchanged for the sixth consecutive time [11]. - The announcement of gold - related tax policies may affect domestic investment sentiment and increase the volatility of domestic gold prices on Monday [3][8]. - This week, attention should be paid to the US ADP employment report, Fed officials' speeches, and Trump's possible attendance at the US Supreme Court's "tariff ruling" hearing [8]. 3. Important Data Information - ADP will launch weekly employment data from this week. As of October 11, the average number of private - sector jobs in the US increased by 14,250 in four weeks [10]. - The US consumer confidence index in October declined for the third consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since April this year [10]. - The IMF predicts that the US government debt - to - GDP ratio will reach 143.4% by 2030, exceeding that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century [10]. - The eurozone's Q3 GDP increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, better than expected, but there was increased differentiation among member states [10]. - The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2% unchanged for the third time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target [11]. - The Japanese central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% unchanged for the sixth consecutive time, with some members opposing and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate hike [11]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarified gold - related tax policies, highlighting the tax advantages of exchange - traded gold [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, ETF holdings, inventory changes, net long positions, price spreads, and various correlations such as gold - to - silver ratios, inflation expectations, and relationships with other economic indicators [12][15][19][21][23][24][27][31][32][34][38][40][41][42][43]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a temporary "trade truce," but the U.S. continues to investigate China's compliance with previous trade agreements, indicating ongoing tensions in the economic relationship [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Strategies - The U.S. Trade Representative, Greer, stated that despite the truce, investigations into China's adherence to trade agreements will persist, reflecting a dual strategy of political negotiation and pressure [1][5]. - The U.S. is maintaining its "America First" policy, using trade reviews as a means to safeguard economic security, but this approach has led to negative impacts on the U.S. economy, including rising prices for American households [5]. - The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution to end the tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, highlighting the growing economic pressure on American families due to these policies [5]. Group 2: China's Response and Strategy - China has anticipated U.S. actions and has prepared countermeasures, including a review of export control measures and a conditional pause on port fees, indicating a strategic approach to the ongoing trade conflict [3][6]. - The Chinese government has emphasized the need to compress the list of issues while expanding cooperation, showcasing its willingness to engage in dialogue while rejecting unilateral pressure [7]. - China has announced a one-year suspension of previously planned export control measures on rare earths, which are critical for high-tech industries, signaling a gesture of goodwill while retaining leverage [6][7]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The ongoing "covert conflict" under the guise of a truce will ultimately depend on both parties finding a balance of interests, with China demonstrating cooperation through increased agricultural imports [10]. - If the U.S. continues its strategy of extreme pressure, it risks negative consequences for itself, emphasizing the need for dialogue over confrontation in a deeply interconnected global economy [10].

Core Viewpoint - The potential signing of a trade agreement between the US and China next week has generated significant attention, despite ongoing investigations by the US into China's compliance with previous agreements [3][4]. Group 1: US Position - US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that a trade agreement could be signed as early as next week, surprising many who believed the recent high-level meetings did not meet expectations [3]. - US Trade Representative Greer stated that the US will continue to investigate whether China has adhered to the first phase of the trade agreement, highlighting that not all issues were resolved during the recent meetings [3][4]. - Greer's comments suggest that the US is applying pressure on China to expedite the agreement, with President Trump retaining the option to impose additional tariffs if the agreement is not signed [4][5]. Group 2: China’s Response - China maintains its own pace in addressing trade issues and does not intend to fully comply with US demands, as indicated by Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun [7]. - Guo emphasized that the essence of US-China economic relations is mutual benefit and should serve as a stabilizing force rather than a point of conflict [8]. - China has already taken steps to ease tensions, such as purchasing 180,000 tons of US soybeans and adjusting its tariff list, while expressing concerns over the US's fluctuating stance [8].