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大错特错!黄金行情远未结束当前转折概率仅25%,这3个信号才关键
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-26 17:26
Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, marked by a 5.3% drop on October 21, is seen as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift in the gold market's long-term bullish trend [1][3][13] Market Reaction - On October 21, gold prices fell nearly $300 from a peak of $4,381 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in five years [1] - The probability of a complete reversal in gold's upward trend is assessed at only 25% by professional institutions [3] - The market's volatility has raised caution among traders, indicating a shift in short-term sentiment [3] Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices - A sudden decrease in market risk aversion, driven by optimistic signals regarding U.S.-China trade agreements and potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has contributed to the sell-off [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.34% on October 21, has further pressured gold prices, making it more expensive for non-U.S. currency investors [3] Underlying Support for Gold - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact despite short-term challenges [5][10] - Key signals to monitor for the gold market include: - Real interest rates: A declining real interest rate environment typically supports gold prices [5] - U.S. dollar trends: Gold remains favorable as long as the dollar does not show a significant upward trend [6] - Gold volatility: Current volatility levels, while heightened, have not reached extreme historical levels, suggesting potential for recovery [8] Central Bank Activity - Global central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2024, second only to historical peaks [10] - The People's Bank of China has consistently increased its gold reserves, surpassing 74 million ounces [10] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical trends indicate that gold prices often follow a ten-year cycle, with the current bull market lasting 34 months, slightly exceeding historical averages [12] - Structural changes in the global monetary system, including a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, support gold's transition from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "new monetary anchor" [12] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI data and Federal Reserve meetings, will be critical for assessing short-term gold price movements [12]
Trump to Investigate Whether China Abided by 2020 Trade Deal
Nytimes· 2025-10-24 19:15
The administration announced its trade investigation on Friday, ahead of a summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders. ...
特朗普称中美将达成贸易协议?外交部回应
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-10-22 15:23
Core Points - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Guo Jiaqun, emphasized the strategic importance of leader-level diplomacy in China-U.S. relations, highlighting the close communication between the two countries' leaders [1] Group 1 - Guo Jiaqun responded to a question regarding U.S. President Trump's expectation of a trade agreement at the upcoming APEC summit, noting that he currently has no information to provide on the specific issue mentioned [1]
特朗普称预计将与中国达成贸易协议,中方回应
中国青年报客户端北京10月22日电(中青报·中青网记者 国新冠)关于美国总统特朗普日前涉中美贸易 问题的言论,中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆22日下午在例行记者会上应询表示,元首外交对中美关系发挥着 不可替代的战略引领作用,中美两国元首保持着密切的交往和沟通。 记者会上,有记者提问,美国总统特朗普表示,他预计中美会在下周举行的APEC峰会上就贸易问题达 成协议,他也称中美元首届时未必会见面。中方对此有何评论? 外交部发 言人郭嘉昆。图片来自外交部 "元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用,中美两国元首保持着密切的交往和沟通。"郭嘉 昆说,"关于你提到的具体问题,我目前没有可以提供的信息。" 来源:中国青年报客户端 ...
特朗普称预计将与中国达成贸易协议,外交部回应
券商中国· 2025-10-22 09:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of high-level diplomatic engagement between China and the United States, particularly in the context of trade negotiations at the upcoming APEC summit [1] - The spokesperson highlighted that the leaders of both countries maintain close communication, which plays a crucial role in guiding the strategic relationship between China and the U.S. [1]
特朗普称中美会在下周APEC峰会就贸易问题达成协议,但两国元首未必会见面,外交部回应
Bei Jing Qing Nian Bao· 2025-10-22 08:56
有记者提问,美国总统特朗普表示,他预计在下周举行的APEC峰会上中美会在贸易问题上达成协议, 但他也称,中美元首届时未必会见面。中方对此有何评论? "元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用,中美两国元首保持着密切的交往和沟通。关于 你提到的具体问题,我目前没有可以提供的信息。"郭嘉昆说。 北京青年报2025-10-22 15:28:25 10月22日,外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 编辑 | 杨家瑞 文 | 北京青年报记者 董鑫 ...
特朗普称预计中美将达成贸易协议,外交部回应
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-10-22 08:17
"关于你提到的具体问题,我目前没有可以提供的信息。"郭嘉昆说。 (文章来源:中国基金报) 据北京日报,10月22日,外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 法新社记者提问,美国总统特朗普表示,他预计在下周举行的APEC峰会上中美会在贸易问题上达成协 议,但他也称中美元首届时未必会见面。中方对此有何评论? 郭嘉昆说,元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用,中美两国元首保持着密切的交往和沟 通。 ...
特朗普称预计中美将达成贸易协议,外交部回应
中国基金报· 2025-10-22 08:06
法新社记者提问,美国总统特朗普表示,他预计在下周举行的APEC峰会上中美会在贸易问题上达成 协议,但他也称中美元首届时未必会见面。中方对此有何评论? 郭嘉昆说,元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用,中美两国元首保持着密切的交往 和沟通。 "关于你提到的具体问题,我目前没有可以提供的信息。"郭嘉昆说。 来源: 北京日报 据北京日报,10月22日,外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 ...
特朗普称中美会在APEC峰会上达成贸易协议,但中美元首未必见面,外交部回应
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-22 07:42
10月22日,外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。法新社记者提问,美国总统特朗普表示,他预计中美 会在下周举行的APEC峰会上就贸易问题上达成协议,但他称中美元首届时未必会见面。中方对此有何 评论? 郭嘉昆说,元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用,中美两国元首保持着密切的交往和沟 通。"关于你提到的具体问题,我目前没有可以提供的信息。" 智通财经记者 杨文钦 朱郑勇 责任编辑:刘万里 SF014 ...
特朗普称预计将与中国达成贸易协议,中方回应
第一财经· 2025-10-22 07:41
来源|北京日报 编辑|瑜见 郭嘉昆说,元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用,中美两国元首保持着密切的交往和沟 通。 "关于你提到的具体问题,我目前没有可以提供的信息。"郭嘉昆说。 10月22日,外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 法新社记者提问,美国总统特朗普表示,他预计在下周举行的APEC峰会上,中美会在贸易问题上达成 协议,他也称中美元首届时未必会见面。中方对此有何评论? ...