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美国商务部长鲁特尼克的表态,简直撕下了中美贸易协议的遮羞布
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 01:31
Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Raimondo, has made statements indicating that the U.S. will not sell chips to China and will maintain high tariffs of 55%, suggesting a potential escalation in trade tensions [1] - China holds over 90% of the global rare earth processing technology, which is crucial for high-tech materials and key components in U.S. military equipment, indicating a significant dependency of the U.S. on Chinese rare earths [3] - The U.S. has large stockpiles of rare earth minerals but does not process them domestically, having secretly imported 30,000 tons of semi-finished rare earths from China last year, highlighting a reliance on Chinese resources [3] Group 2 - The current geopolitical landscape suggests that if the U.S. maintains its stance, China could leverage its control over rare earth resources to gain a strategic advantage in the ongoing trade conflict [4] - There is a need for close monitoring of domestic policies regarding rare earth resources in China to identify potential strategic opportunities in response to U.S. actions [4] - The U.S. appears to be preparing to suppress China's high-tech industry and cut off its access to international markets, raising questions about the sustainability of the current imbalanced trade relationship [6]
国信(香港)基金周报:美国多项经济数据好转,美联储或继续延缓降息-20250616
Group 1: Fund Performance - The Guosen Hong Kong Selected Fund showed significant performance, with the Huaxia Hang Seng Hong Kong Biotechnology Index ETF achieving a weekly increase of 13.127% and a one-year return of 75.170% [1] - The Taikang Kaitai Overseas Short-Term Bond Fund had a modest weekly increase of 0.135% and a one-year return of 6.360% [1] - The High Teng Micro Gold Dollar Money Market Fund and Huaxia Selected Dollar Money Fund also reported slight weekly increases of 0.085% and 0.082% respectively [1] Group 2: Global Asset Performance - The US dollar index decreased by 1.01% this week and is down 9.50% year-to-date, currently at 98.184 [2] - The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields fell by 2.20% and 2.37% respectively, with current yields at approximately 3.9475% and 4.3987% [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 0.42% this week, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.89% [2] Group 3: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent economic data in the US shows improvement, with the core inflation rate in May being below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that businesses are absorbing tariff costs [8] - The consumer confidence index has improved for the first time in six months, alleviating concerns over tariff pressures [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this summer, as employment data remains strong, with non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [8][10] Group 4: Trade Negotiations and Market Reactions - Recent US-China trade negotiations yielded limited progress, maintaining high tariff levels and leaving significant issues unresolved, particularly regarding rare earths and chip exports [9] - The market reaction to the trade talks was muted, with slight fluctuations in US stocks and the dollar [9] - The overall uncertainty in trade relations continues to pose risks for economic stability and inflation [9]
管涛:极限关税下的中美贸易︱汇海观涛
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-15 13:00
Core Points - The trade between China and the US has significantly declined due to extreme tariffs, but it has not reached zero [1][2] - In April 2025, China's exports to the US decreased by 21.0% year-on-year, while imports fell by 13.8% [2] - The tariffs imposed by both countries have led to a substantial impact on bilateral trade, with no clear winners in the trade war [2][4] Trade Statistics - In April 2025, the US saw a 29.1% decrease in exports to China and a 19.7% decrease in imports from China [2] - The share of US exports to China fell to 12.7%, with a significant drop to 10.5% in April 2025 [4] - The trade deficit between the US and China was recorded at $295.4 billion, a decrease of $79.8 billion [5][6] Impact of Tariffs - The extreme tariffs have resulted in a sharp decline in specific categories of goods, with some categories experiencing declines over 60% [10][12] - The largest category affected was "electromechanical, audio-visual equipment and parts," which saw a 29.2% decrease, accounting for 41.7% of China's total exports to the US [10][11] - The tariffs have particularly impacted small and medium-sized enterprises that export these goods, indicating a broader economic impact [12][14] Trade Dynamics with Other Countries - Vietnam has emerged as a significant intermediary for Chinese exports to the US, with a 54.9% increase in US imports from Vietnam in April 2025 [7][8] - The trade dynamics indicate that while Mexico's role has diminished due to tariffs, Vietnam continues to facilitate indirect exports from China to the US [6][7] - ASEAN countries have also seen an increase in exports from China, with a 20.8% growth in April 2025 compared to other regions [9]
一切都是为了稀土,美媒透露:中国限制稀土出口,特朗普压力山大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 06:42
稀土,这东西听起来似乎离我们的日常生活很遥远,但实际上它就在我们身边无处不在——从手机、电脑、电动车,到导弹和雷达,几乎没有高科技产品能 离开它的支持。 到了2025年,中国对稀土出口采取了重大措施,直接限制了几种关键元素的出口,结果让美国陷入了混乱,给特朗普带来了巨大压力。 先来了解一下稀土到底是什么。稀土并不是单一的元素,而是包括17种化学元素的集合,像钪、钇,还有一整串镧系元素。 虽然这些名字听上去很陌生,但它们在现代工业中却扮演着不可或缺的角色。稀土元素具备独特的物理和化学特性,使得高科技产品更强大、更轻巧、更耐 用。 举个例子,智能手机的显示屏和电池,电动车里的电机,甚至军工领域中的激光器和永磁体,都离不开稀土的支持。 中国在全球稀土产业中占据绝对领先地位,全球90%以上的稀土产量都来自中国。这背后的原因很简单:中国不仅拥有丰富的稀土矿藏,还建立了完整的产 业链,从矿石开采到深加工一应俱全。 相比之下,美国虽然也有稀土资源,但缺乏强大的加工能力和提炼技术,基本依赖中国的供应和加工。一旦中国收紧出口,美国便陷入被动局面。 2025年初,特朗普政府对中国商品加征了34%的关税,试图通过贸易战施压中国。 ...
贺博生:6.13黄金原油高位横盘整理最新行情走势分析及今日独家操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 03:59
Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The latest gold price reached a high of $3398.55 per ounce, marking a new weekly peak, before experiencing a drop to $3338 due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - Market sentiment indicates a decrease in risk aversion, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year following lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the gold price is in a strong upward trend, with key support at $3370 and resistance at $3405, indicating a strategy of buying on dips [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices fell by $0.47 to $69.40 per barrel, while WTI dropped by $0.33 to $67.84, following a previous day of over 4% gains [5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. inventories are driving market dynamics, with ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions [5] - Technical indicators show a bullish trend for oil prices, with expectations of further increases if resistance levels are broken, particularly targeting the $70 mark [6]
综合晨报-20250611
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:14
gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库较上周四去库2.7万吨,铝棒持平。铝市维持低库存现实,需求面 临李节性转淡和出口前置后的考验,关注现货反馈边际变化。沪铝暂时震荡在前期缺口20300元存 在阻力,逢高偏空参与。 【氧化铝】 综合晨报 2025年06月11日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价冲高回落,布伦特08合约跌0.79%。在持续对中美谈判乐观预期进行定价后,最新迹 象显示暂无超出日内瓦共识之外的增量进展,油价上行动力不足。上周美国API原油库存下降37万 桶不及此前预期,关注今晚EIA库存结果。在OPEC+7月增产短期利空出尽后,宏观面中美贸易战相 关的风险情绪修复、旺季需求改善、地缘犹动下制裁风险仍存一度对原油构成支撑,但能源转型超 势下的中期石油需求降速叠加OPEC+产量策略改变后供应的快速回归仍将限制短期利好的强度,原 油暂以反弹空间有限定调,继续关注中美经贸磋商能否带动宏观预期的实质性扣转。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力,但白银受益于商品的反弹向上突破 刷新2012年以来新高。随着关税暂缓三个月截止期的临近,特朗普关 ...
周周芝道 - 全球资产“混乱”的信号意味着什么
2025-06-09 01:42
股票市场对贸易战预期反应趋于理性,而债券市场主要定价流动性而非 贸易战影响,央行政策是关键驱动因素。 未来需密切关注 6 月份出口数据,特别是抢出口效应减弱的迹象,这将 是判断债券市场机会的重要信号。 债券市场的大机会主要来自经济数据催化,尤其是地产数据,地产下行 会放大出口和生产的负面影响。 贸易战对中国债市的影响已部分定价,未来需关注实际影响;美债表现 疲软,反映了增长和流动性预期以及金融秩序重塑。 美元信用资产表现偏弱,与传统避险逻辑不符,反映了金融秩序重塑的 不确定性和对美国财政扩张的担忧。 全球市场中,股票定价贸易规则影响,避险资产如黄金、比特币因对金 融秩序重塑敏感而走强,大宗商品震荡。 预计 2025 年将是 10 年期国债牛市的尾部阶段,下半年基本面定价逻 辑将主导,出口带动地产走低,利率仍有下行空间。 Q&A 当前市场对中美贸易战的预期定价趋势如何? 当前市场对中美贸易战的预期定价呈现出疲软趋势。最初在四五月份,市场风 险偏好极度收缩,但随着时间推移,市场选择不提前判断贸易规则的不确定性。 因此,从四月下旬到整个五月,相关板块并未获得非常乐观的定价,更加侧重 现实端。尽管上周中美两国首脑会谈 ...
金荣中国:美非农就业数据高于预期,金价破位下行大幅收跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 01:21
消息面: 周五公布的美国5月失业率录得4.2%,符合市场预期,前值为4.2%;美国5月季调后非农就业人口录得13.9万 人,高于市场预期13万人,前值为14.7万人。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发文称,美联储官员表示,在评估劳动力需求是否放缓上,他们可能更关注失业 率而非就业增长。原因在于,他们预计,随着边境管控收紧导致可供工作的人数减少,就业增长自然将放缓。 当就业增长放缓而失业率保持稳定时,可能表明劳动力供给下降的速度快于需求下降的速度。美联储的底线 是:只要失业率保持在当前水平,美联储不会必然对就业增长放缓感到担忧。 行情回顾: 国际黄金周五(6月6日)大幅收跌,开盘价3344.40美元/盎司,最高价3375.56美元/盎司,最低价3316.43美元/ 盎司,收盘价3332.18美元/盎司。 技术面: 国际黄金周五大幅收跌,周五早间金价维持短线震荡上行,最低下探3356一线后震荡走高,进入下午盘金价最 高是跟你谈3375一线后震荡回落,欧盘时段金价最低下探3352一线后逐步企稳于3352上方区间震荡。美盘时段 伴随着高于市场预期的非农就业数据公布金价加剧短线震荡下行,周六凌晨金价最低下探 ...
中美通话一个半小时,特朗普请求中方,在稀土出口手下留情
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 23:34
昨夜,特朗普终于亲自打通了我们的电话,但这一通话并非偶然,而是他主动提出的邀请,双方才得以沟通。这背后透露了一个重要的信号:特朗普急了。 如果再不采取行动,美国的制造业可能会反向流回中国。 为何特朗普如此急迫?这通电话的内容揭示了问题的关键:通话持续了1.5小时,内容涵盖多个方面,但最引人注目的是特朗普明确向中国方面提出,急需 解决稀土出口限制问题。此外,通话结束后,特朗普在推特上再次提到"稀土"一词,原话称:"稀土的复杂性没有问题",这无疑表明,稀土是此次通话的核 心话题,也成为了制约美国制造业的关键筹码。 美国经济的另一大挑战则是通胀问题。尽管4月的通胀数据未出现显著的飙升(具体数据可参见相关图表),但有消息透露,特朗普已对劳工统计局进行了 裁员,导致该局人手不足,许多数据未能及时收集。因此,4月的通胀数据可能存在"拼凑"的成分。美联储主席鲍威尔表示,基于这些存疑的数据,美联储 无法确定是否应该降息。 特朗普的麻烦还不仅仅限于此。他推动的"大美丽法案"遭到前盟友马斯克的强烈批评,马斯克认为该法案会导致美国财政赤字再创新高,并可能让美国走向 破产。马斯克甚至公开转发了支持"弹劾特朗普、由副总统万斯接任"的推 ...
浦银国际 2025年中期宏观策略展望
2025-06-04 15:25
浦银国际 2025 年中期宏观策略展望 20250604 摘要 特朗普政府关税政策使美国加权平均关税大幅上升,虽中美日内瓦协议 后有所回落,但仍高于其上任前水平,可能推高通胀,极端情况下影响 可达 1.4 到 2.9 个百分点,或扭转通胀下行趋势。 中美贸易战暂时休战,减少了贸易阻绝影响,但两国间不确定性依然存 在。中国通过产业链调整优化,应对贸易战准备更充分,而美国经济形 势不佳,加剧资本市场信心打击。 维持现状下,预计 2025 年中国经济增速为 4.5%,需配合降准、降息 及额外资金支持。若关税战升级,经济增速可能下滑至 4%,需更大力 度刺激;若关税下降,增速有望接近 5%目标。 美国加征关税对经济影响尚未明显体现,但预计 7 至 8 月影响将更显著, 可能上调全年核心 PCE 同比通胀率预测至 3%。劳动力市场可能恶化, 或成美联储降息触发因素。 美联储对关税影响态度谨慎,除非劳动力数据恶化,否则不会贸然降息。 预计全年降息次数调整为两次 25 个基点。短期内美国政府难以推出显 著刺激政策,财政赤字率预计与今年持平。 Q&A 最新一轮贸易战中,中国准备工作更足,通过产业链调整优化,将低端劳动密 集型 ...