Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant decline of over 2% this week, ending an eight-week winning streak due to heavy profit-taking by investors [3][7] - The market saw substantial outflows from gold ETFs, which contributed to the weakening buying momentum and pushed gold prices briefly down to $4,100/oz [5][7] - A softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Friday helped revive optimism for another Federal Reserve rate cut, stabilizing gold prices above $4,100 [6][7] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is highly anticipated, with traders closely monitoring remarks from Fed Chair Powell amid the ongoing government shutdown [7] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in speculative buying in gold has retreated, with investors focusing on locking in profits as gold prices approached all-time highs [3][4] - The "quiet period" before the FOMC meeting has led to a slowdown in updates regarding interest rate decisions, contributing to a lack of new upward momentum for gold prices [4][5] - The easing of trade war tensions and muted headlines regarding tariffs on Chinese imports have also contributed to the risk-off sentiment in the market [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side has rebounded, and the sales of polyester yarn have improved. The recent rise in crude oil prices is supported by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve. The terminal demand has improved marginally due to the cooling weather, and the sales of polyester yarn have improved in the past two days [1]. - In the short term, the resonance of the macro - environment and fundamentals has put pressure on the fundamentals, and there is no obvious driving force for a rebound. In the PX segment, the PXN was $244/ton (a decrease of $2/ton compared to the previous period). The PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and with fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, the PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, and the supply - demand support for PX is limited. In the TA segment, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 88 yuan/ton (no change compared to the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 79 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 299 yuan/ton (a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). With the news of new plant commissioning, the processing fee has been further compressed. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is expected that new plants will be commissioned next week, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is relatively abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to the impact of tariffs [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period). After the National Day, the market has calmed down, and filament yarn has accumulated inventory again. Terminal raw material procurement remains mostly cautious. Under high tariffs, the operating load of weaving and texturing has decreased again this week. The current inventory of polyester factories is not high, and it is expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%. There is still support from rigid demand due to the cooling weather. In the PF segment, the spot production profit is 298 yuan/ton (a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). The load of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has remained stable. Due to the narrowing price difference in the market, the price advantage of factories has emerged, and inventory has decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the inventory held by traders has also decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. In the PR segment, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 546 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). The operating load of bottle chips has remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintain production cuts, and the inventory of polyester bottle chip factories has decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the operating load of plants will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment [3]. - For the unilateral strategy, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. In the PX segment, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and with fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, the supply - demand support for PX in the fourth quarter has weakened. In the TA segment, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but new plants are about to be commissioned, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to the impact of tariffs. Attention should be paid to the increase in PX maintenance due to profit compression and the Sino - US tariff game. In the PF segment, the demand for PF has improved slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the PR segment, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, maintenance continues, but the demand performance is average. It is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. For the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. For the cross - period strategy, it is recommended to conduct a reverse spread for PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display the PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating load in China and Asia [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the sales of filament yarn and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY, FDY, and POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, filament FDY and POY profits [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures present the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference (1.4D polyester staple fiber - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][78][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip price difference, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip second - next - month spread (second next month - base month) [86][88][97]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is expected to reach a trade agreement with China during the upcoming APEC summit, as President Trump expresses urgency due to the impending expiration of tariffs and countermeasures on November 10 [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Despite high tariffs, the U.S. maintains a rigid demand for Chinese imports, with daily imports remaining stable at $1 billion, and exports to the U.S. from China exceeding $100 billion from July to September [3][4]. - The import substitution rate for key Chinese products in the U.S. is below 30%, indicating deep integration of supply chains, particularly in sectors like semiconductors where China holds a 45% market share for precision components [4]. Group 2: Economic Pressures - High tariffs have led to increased costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, with the automotive industry warning of rising component costs and declining employment in key manufacturing states [4]. - The deadline for tariff extensions is approaching, creating significant pressure on the U.S. administration to negotiate a new agreement to avoid further economic repercussions [4]. Group 3: Credibility of Negotiations - Trump's history of rapidly changing positions raises doubts about the credibility of his statements regarding the potential trade agreement with China [5]. - The Chinese perspective emphasizes a commitment to diversifying foreign trade and not compromising on principles for a deal, suggesting that U.S. sincerity and action are crucial for any resolution [7].

Core Points - The imminent implementation of 100% additional tariffs on China has been unexpectedly altered by Trump, who expressed a desire for a fair trade agreement with China [1] - The Trump administration has quietly initiated tariff exemptions for various products, including gold and LED lights, and plans to expand these exemptions to agricultural products and aircraft parts [3] - The economic pressure within the U.S. has significantly influenced this policy shift, as industries like manufacturing and retail face rising costs due to tariffs [3] - The technology sector is particularly vulnerable, with companies like Apple facing potential price increases of up to three times for iPhones if tariffs are imposed [5] - Inflationary pressures are rising, prompting concerns from the Federal Reserve about potential price hikes and the impact on consumer living costs [6] - Farmers, a key support group for Trump, are expressing anger over tariff policies that have severely impacted exports, particularly soybeans [6] - Political factors, including upcoming midterm elections, are driving Trump to adjust his tariff policies to gain voter support, especially in swing states [6] - Legal challenges against the tariff policies are emerging, with courts questioning the legality of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [8] - The limitations of the "maximum pressure" strategy in the U.S.-China trade war are becoming evident, as tariffs have not achieved the intended reduction in trade deficits [11] - The semiconductor industry is also suffering due to export restrictions to China, complicating efforts for companies to relocate production back to the U.S. [14]

Group 1 - The Chinese government maintains a consistent stance on US-China trade issues, emphasizing that trade wars do not benefit either side and advocating for negotiations based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1] - Recent comments from US President Trump threaten to impose export controls on aircraft parts, which could impact Boeing, a major player in the aerospace industry [1] - Currently, China operates approximately 1,855 Boeing aircraft and has at least 222 additional orders, with a significant portion being the popular 737 narrow-body jets [1] Group 2 - Trump's threats could undermine Boeing's reputation as a leading high-end manufacturer, turning it into a geopolitical tool and potentially damaging its global customer base [2] - The long-term implications of these actions may lead to skepticism from other countries regarding Boeing's reliability, especially among nations with complex relationships with the US [2]

美国的制造业尤其受到了严重影响，由于人工和原料成本高昂，许多生产出来的产品无法在市场上销售，导致工厂倒闭和大规模工人罢工，成为此次抗议的 重要组成部分。与此同时，科技行业也对特朗普的关税政策表示不满。 农业方面，尤其是在特朗普的"票仓"——一些重要的农业大州，情况更为严峻。农民原本希望特朗普能够与中国缓解贸易摩擦，带来更多的市场机会，尤其 是大豆出口。然而，随着中美贸易战的加剧，他们从"希望者"变成了"受害者"，情况愈加糟糕。 特朗普在关税问题上的突然改口，不仅是基于经济上的考虑，更是政治现实压力的体现。这次2700城市的抗议，涉及了农民、工人、移民群体、科研人员甚 至中小企业主，显示了美国社会的严重分裂。如果特朗普不能尽快解决这些抗议者关心的核心问题，他在2026年中期选举中的前景可能会非常不利。 目前，中国在这场贸易战中占据了有利的谈判地位。40年来，中国建立了强大的制造业生态系统，拥有明显的优势，因此可以承受更多的关税负担，而美国 则需要时间去寻找替代品和建设新的制造产能。 最近，全美各地爆发了大规模抗议，超过2700座城市的近700万美国民众走上街头，要求特朗普下台，反对他的一系列政策，尤其是移民和贸 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's threat to expel 300,000 Chinese students in the U.S. if China does not relax its rare earth export controls highlights the intense competition between the U.S. and China over critical resources [1][2] - Rare earth elements, comprising 17 chemical elements, are essential in modern technology and manufacturing, including applications in smartphones, electric vehicles, and military equipment [4][4] - The U.S. is significantly dependent on China for rare earth resources due to its lagging extraction and refining technologies, despite having some domestic resources [4][4] Group 2 - The threat from U.S. officials is seen as a tactic to exert pressure on China, similar to previous strategies employed during trade negotiations, where extreme measures were proposed to achieve concessions [7][10] - China's strategic response involves strengthening its rare earth export controls and promoting resource protection, reflecting a broader strategy in the global resource competition [13][16] - China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth production and has developed a comprehensive industrial chain, giving it a significant advantage in this sector [13][16] Group 3 - The U.S. faces challenges in addressing its reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies, as domestic development efforts have been hindered by technological and environmental constraints [18][19] - The shortage of rare earth elements has already impacted U.S. manufacturing, with companies like Ford acknowledging production halts due to supply chain disruptions [19][19] - China's dominance in the rare earth sector not only undermines U.S. control over global resources but also challenges its economic influence [19][21] Group 4 - China's strategy in the global resource competition extends beyond rare earths, encompassing high-tech manufacturing and green energy, positioning the country as a key player in the global economy [21][23] - The country is enhancing its self-sufficiency in technology, reducing reliance on external sources, and strengthening international cooperation to reshape global supply chains [23][24] - China's firm stance against U.S. threats demonstrates its confidence and strategic resolve in the ongoing resource competition, emphasizing the importance of resource control and technological competitiveness [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated, particularly in the areas of rare earth exports and agricultural products, with the U.S. attempting to probe China's responses through various threats and conditions [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, but later indicated a willingness to negotiate [1][5]. - Trump has suggested halting imports of Chinese cooking oil, which is primarily waste oil used for biofuel, highlighting the disparity in trade volume compared to U.S. soybean exports to China [5][7]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has proposed tax exemptions contingent on China lifting its rare earth export controls, indicating a disorganized strategy [5][7]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - Since July, U.S. agricultural shipments to China have plummeted, with estimates suggesting a potential loss of 14 to 16 million tons of soybean orders if China does not resume purchases by mid-November [3][7]. - The inability of the U.S. to redirect soybean exports to other countries has exacerbated the situation for American farmers, who are struggling to find new markets [3][7]. Group 3: China's Strategic Position - China's response strategy appears well-planned, with indications that it had anticipated U.S. actions as early as August [7][8]. - The Chinese government has emphasized the need for the U.S. to cease unilateral sanctions and demonstrate genuine intent in negotiations [8]. - China's position on rare earth exports and agricultural imports reflects a calculated approach to leverage its market power against U.S. threats [3][8].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the diplomatic tensions between China and the U.S., triggered by U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant's accusations against Chinese trade representative Li Chenggang during a press conference [1][4][8] - Li Chenggang's visit to the U.S. aimed to advance the implementation of agreements made by the leaders of both countries and address the U.S. Section 301 investigation into China's shipbuilding industry [2][4] - The U.S. mischaracterized Li's diplomatic visit as provocative, leading to strong rebuttals from China, which emphasized that the visit was in line with previously established consensus [4][12] Group 2 - China's response to U.S. accusations included countermeasures against the U.S. Section 301 investigation, such as imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels, which could increase operational costs at U.S. ports by 12% to 15% [4][12] - In agricultural trade, China demonstrated supply chain resilience by utilizing satellite technology to monitor soybean cultivation in Argentina, ensuring quality and transparency in its procurement processes [6][14] - The U.S. agricultural exports to China significantly declined from January to August 2025, leading to increased unemployment rates in agricultural states, highlighting the negative impact of U.S. trade policies [8][10] Group 3 - The U.S. court ruling against tariffs on steel and aluminum products during Li Chenggang's visit further supported China's position and exposed contradictions in U.S. trade policy [10][12] - China's strategic approach includes diversifying import sources and leveraging technology for supply chain security, which has weakened U.S. bargaining power in agricultural trade [12][16] - The evolving global trade landscape, influenced by China's Belt and Road Initiative and cooperation with emerging agricultural nations, is reshaping trade dynamics, with projected agricultural trade between China and Argentina expected to exceed $50 billion by 2030 [14][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - China's recent export controls on critical materials, including rare earths and lithium batteries, have significantly impacted the U.S. and are seen as a strategic move to accelerate decoupling from the U.S. amid ongoing tensions [1][3]. Group 1: China's Export Controls - China announced export controls on key materials, which has caused a strong reaction from the U.S., particularly from former President Trump, who expressed outrage and threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China [1]. - The decision to implement these controls is rooted in China's realization that the U.S. has no intention of making substantial concessions in trade negotiations, leading to a strategic shift towards decoupling [3]. Group 2: U.S. Response - Trump's initial anger was followed by a willingness to negotiate, indicating that the U.S. is not prepared for an all-out trade war despite the tensions [5][7]. - U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer stated that while the U.S. is ready for a trade war if necessary, the current focus remains on negotiations to ease tensions [7]. Group 3: Implications for Industries - The export controls are perceived as an economic "nuclear war" aimed at undermining U.S. high-end manufacturing, particularly in the AI sector, highlighting the interdependence of U.S. technology and Chinese resources [5]. - The U.S. high-tech industry, including semiconductor production, relies heavily on Chinese rare earth materials, suggesting that the U.S. may face significant challenges if supply chains are disrupted [3].