Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060. The short - term US soybean market is supported by China's soybean purchases but restricted by uncertain purchase volume and good harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal is also affected by these factors and the demand off - season, thus maintaining an oscillating pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The short - term US soybean market is influenced by China's purchases and weather. The domestic soybean market is supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports but restricted by high import volume and domestic production increase expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will also decrease from a high level. Affected by normal harvest weather and the preliminary trade agreement, soybean meal will return to an oscillating pattern [13]. - The reduction of domestic pig - breeding profits leads to low expectations of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations. The soybean meal market is affected by both US soybean trends and the demand off - season [13]. - The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a relatively high level. With the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and the Sino - US trade agreement, the soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern, waiting for clear US soybean production and further trade negotiation results [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [14]. - **Negative Factors**: High total arrival of imported soybeans in November in China, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - **Positive Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and rising domestic soybean demand expectations support prices [15]. - **Negative Factors**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From October 23 to October 31, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 to 3048, with daily trading volumes between 5.35 and 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2470 and 2530, and the daily trading volume was mostly 0 [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 23 to October 31, the futures prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal showed certain fluctuations, while the spot prices of soybean No.1 remained stable at 4100, and the spot price of soybean meal rose from 2910 to 2970 [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From October 22 to October 31, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal changed. For example, the soybean No.1 warehouse receipts increased from 7090 to 7238 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: From 2015 to 2024, the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets showed changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuating [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: In 2023/24, the planting and harvest progress of Argentine soybeans, in 2024, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans, in 2024/25, the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, in 2025, the harvest progress of US soybeans, and in 2025/26, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans are all presented [33][34][38][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From March to September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports showed changes in US soybean planting area, yield, output, and ending inventory, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [43]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **View**: The short - term US soybean market is influenced by China's purchases and weather, and the domestic soybean meal market is affected by US soybean trends, demand off - season, and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060 [9]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy content provided. Soybeans - **View**: The short - term US soybean market is affected by China's purchases and weather. The domestic soybean market is supported by cost - performance advantages but restricted by import volume and production increase expectations. It is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160 [11]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy content provided.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slight cooling of interest rate cut expectations, leading to fluctuations in COMEX gold futures prices, which peaked at $4059.9 before retreating to around $4028 per ounce [1] - As of the latest data from CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 74.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 25.3% [1] - The analysis from Wengxin Futures highlights that the recent phase of U.S.-China trade negotiations has mitigated overseas risks, which has been reflected in the significant decline in gold and silver prices previously [1] Group 2 - The market for precious metals is currently influenced by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with Powell's statements regarding balance sheet expansion providing significant support for gold and silver prices [1] - As of the close, the performance of gold-related ETFs showed mixed results, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rising by 1.07%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) fell by 0.14%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) decreased by 1.88% [1] - The probability of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by January next year stands at 57.7% for a 25 basis point cut, 16.6% for maintaining the rate, and 25.6% for a cumulative cut of 50 basis points [1]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - The price of gold jewelry in domestic stores is approaching 1200 CNY per gram, with some brands exceeding this price point [1] - Zhou Shengsheng's gold price has increased by 28 CNY per gram, reaching a new high of 1203 CNY per gram, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1118 CNY per gram [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices has expanded to 85 CNY per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also risen, with Zhou Shengsheng's platinum jewelry increasing by 7 CNY per gram to 650 CNY per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has surged by 17.2 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [2] - The recycling price for gold is reported at 906.20 CNY per gram, with other brands like Lao Fengxiang at 916.70 CNY per gram [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - The spot gold price rebounded to a maximum of 4026.87 USD per ounce, closing at 4024.55 USD per ounce, marking a 2.44% increase [4] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price has decreased to 4010.48 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% decline [4] - The increase in gold prices was primarily supported by a weaker US dollar and ongoing concerns regarding US-China trade negotiations [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons, with a total value of 146 billion USD, marking the highest quarterly demand for gold [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve recently decided to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - The decision aligns with market expectations, but there is increasing division among committee members regarding economic outlook [1] - Chairman Powell emphasized that the next meeting's decision will depend on economic data, indicating uncertainty in future rate cuts [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have accelerated their decline due to increased uncertainty around interest rate cuts and weakened demand as a safe-haven asset amid U.S.-China trade negotiations [2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold's downward trend may continue, with the relative strength index (RSI) rising from an extreme oversold level of 28 to 36, but still below 50 [2] - Key resistance levels for gold are at $4041 and $4111, while a drop below the 200-day SMA around $3937 could increase selling pressure [2] Group 3: Silver Market - Silver prices have rebounded to $47.50 but remain in a challenging position due to lower industrial demand and speculative influences [3] - The price found support near the 50-day SMA at $45.5, and a breakout above $48 could attract selling pressure [3] - Short-term support is at $46.95, with a potential drop below this level leading to further declines towards $45.55 [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a post-deleveraging phase, with low activity in digital asset enterprises [3] - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations is helping to restore normal capital flows, and Solana (SOL) launched its first spot ETF with $800 million in inflows [3] - The upcoming "super earnings week" for tech stocks may also impact cryptocurrency-related stocks like Strategy and Coinbase, with a gradual recovery in market vitality expected [3]

Core Viewpoint - Soybean oil futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping by 0.32% to 8122.00 yuan, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The main soybean oil contract is trading in a range of 7900-8300 yuan, reflecting a consolidation phase in the market [2][4]. - The supply pressure is increasing due to the accelerated harvesting of soybeans in the U.S., while the domestic soybean oil inventory remains high compared to the five-year average, indicating ample short-term supply [2][3]. - The palm oil market is under pressure due to insufficient cost-effectiveness and rising inventories, while canola oil is supported by a significant decrease in domestic canola seed stocks and low operating rates of oil mills [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Ruida Futures emphasizes that the cost side of soybean oil remains relatively firm, suggesting a potential support for prices despite high inventories [5]. - Zhonghui Futures advises caution in pursuing short positions in soybean oil, highlighting the lack of bullish support from U.S. soybean oil and the need to monitor developments in U.S. biofuel policies and Sino-U.S. trade negotiations [3][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, suggesting short - term observation [2] Report's Core View - The asphalt fundamentals remain weak, and the market shows a weak oscillating trend. The weakening of rigid demand in northern provinces seasonally suppresses market sentiment, and there is insufficient upward drive in the market [1] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 30, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3254 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 196,796 lots, up 770 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 160,811 lots, down 12,955 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3406 - 4750 yuan/ton; Shandong 3200 - 3620 yuan/ton; South China 3370 - 3580 yuan/ton; East China 3410 - 3500 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in North China decreased, while that in South China increased slightly, and prices in other regions remained relatively stable [1] - After the successful conclusion of China - US trade negotiations, macro risks have weakened. However, due to the weakening fundamentals of crude oil prices, the cost - driving effect on asphalt is limited [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, with short - term observation as the main strategy - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by the preliminary Sino - US agreement and technical buying, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, but high imports in October and spot price discounts suppress the market, likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiation signals and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean market is supported by the US soybean trend and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt There is no specific content provided for the daily prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean weather. The US soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills declined from a high level in October. The soybean meal market will return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continued to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations will keep the soybean meal market oscillating in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2940, with a basis of - 54, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 3, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Transaction Data**: The report provides the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from October 22 to 30, as well as the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from October 22 to 30 [16][18]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: It shows the warehouse receipt data of soybeans and soybean meal from October 21 to 30, including changes compared to the previous day [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: The sowing and growth progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) are presented, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, etc. [34][35][39]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, and exports [43]. - **Other Market Conditions**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from a high level in October but increased year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [44][46][47].

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. in Busan, South Korea, signifies a potential thaw in trade relations, with both sides agreeing to enhance cooperation in various sectors including trade and energy, while also addressing key issues such as semiconductor technology and agricultural imports [3][5][9]. Trade Negotiations - The recent talks in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a basic consensus on several issues, including maritime logistics, tariff suspension periods, and cooperation on fentanyl, despite some verbal disputes [5][7]. - The U.S. has reportedly abandoned plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, marking a preliminary breakthrough in trade negotiations [7]. - The core issue in the negotiations remains the semiconductor sector, with both countries recognizing that complete decoupling is impractical, yet there is still room for maneuvering in high-tech areas [9][11]. Key Commodities - Semiconductors, rare earth elements, and soybeans are identified as critical bargaining chips in the negotiations [6][12]. - The U.S. heavily relies on China for rare earth elements, with 97% of its supply being imported, 70% of which comes from China. This dependency makes rare earths a significant leverage point in negotiations [12]. - Soybeans are seen as a more straightforward area for potential agreement, as China has shifted its imports to Brazil, leading to increased prices for Brazilian soybeans. A compromise with the U.S. could help stabilize prices [14]. Economic Implications - The A-share index recently surpassed 4000 points for the first time in a decade, reflecting the positive sentiment surrounding the trade negotiations and their potential impact on economic liquidity [17]. - The U.S. economy is primarily driven by consumer spending, which constitutes over 80% of its GDP. Disruptions in trade with China could adversely affect U.S. stock markets, particularly in the tech sector [19][21]. - The interdependence between the U.S. as a major consumer and China as a leading supplier suggests that cooperation is essential for both economies to address their respective challenges [19][21]. Long-term Outlook - While short-term cooperation appears likely, the underlying competition and strategic rivalry between the two nations will continue to shape the market dynamics in the long run [21][23]. - The ongoing negotiations may lead to temporary positive effects on the stock market, but uncertainties remain regarding the resolution of core issues in high-tech sectors, which could lead to increased market volatility [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The ethylene glycol market is experiencing fluctuations due to weak supply and demand dynamics, but macroeconomic support is strengthening the market [1] Supply and Demand - The current supply-demand structure for ethylene glycol is weak, with expectations of increased supply due to the restart of maintenance units and the planned trial runs of several new facilities [1] - The downstream polyester sector is nearing the end of its peak season, leading to anticipated declines in future demand [1] Market Conditions - Recent progress in US-China trade negotiations has improved market risk appetite, providing some support to the ethylene glycol market [1] - As of October 30, the market price in Zhangjiagang is reported to be between 4168-4170 yuan/ton, with spot ethylene glycol trading at a premium of 78-80 yuan/ton over the EG2601 contract [1]

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Views - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. Influenced by US soybean trends, October's high import volume of soybeans, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. Affected by US soybean trends, high import volumes of soybeans, and expectations of a new domestic soybean harvest, it will also stay in a short - term oscillatory state [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Forecasted to oscillate between 2940 - 3000. Neutral in terms of fundamentals and price trends; basis shows a discount, which is bearish; inventory reduction is bullish; the main position shows a decrease in short positions and capital outflows, which is bearish [9]. - **Soybeans**: Expected to fluctuate between 4060 - 4160. Neutral in terms of fundamentals and price trends; basis is neutral; inventory increase is bearish; the main position shows an increase in short positions and capital inflows, which is bearish [11]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, causing short - term bearish sentiment for US soybeans. The US soybean market will oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - In October, the domestic import volume of soybeans remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills declined from its high. The soybean meal market will return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. However, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations have caused the soybean meal market to return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish**: High total import volume of domestic soybeans in October, US soybean harvest and continuous expectations of a bumper harvest [14]. - **Soybean Bullish**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Soybean Bearish**: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement, and expected increase in new domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2930, with a basis of - 39, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 13, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase year - on - year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and capital flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and capital flowed in [11].