Core Viewpoints - The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, but not in a comprehensive manner, with high-frequency indicators showing no significant decline yet [4] - Inflation in the U.S. remains manageable, with the OPI in July rising by 2.7%, indicating a trend of overall inflation easing [4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates twice in the near future, reflecting a cautious approach to economic recovery [4] Macro Analysis - The U.S. economy is experiencing marginal weakening, with pressures on investment, consumption, and real estate increasing [4] - Domestic policies are currently in an observation phase, focusing on implementing existing policies while addressing weaknesses in investment and consumption [4] - The policy structure is shifting towards long-term strategic goals, emphasizing high-quality economic development and sustainable growth mechanisms [4] A-share Strategy and Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of upward fluctuations, with core assets regaining profitability [4] - The market is characterized by high trading volumes and increased investor participation, indicating a strong market sentiment [4] - The upcoming key events, such as the 20th National Congress and U.S.-China trade negotiations, are anticipated to influence market performance positively [4] Asset Allocation Views - The overall asset allocation remains relatively optimistic for A-shares and U.S. bonds, while maintaining a neutral stance on other asset classes [6] - The focus is on balanced holdings, with an emphasis on technology and growth sectors, which are expected to show higher elasticity [4][6] - Continuous attention is given to global diversification opportunities, including investments in Japanese and European stocks, as well as gold [4][6]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 4, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had a collective pullback. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.83% to 12118.70, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.25% to 2776.25. The trading volume reached 2544.3 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.21, down 94.62 [1][2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index closed at 1585.0, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1093.5 yuan, down 21.7 [3][4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Affected by the expected sufficient supply in major producing countries, the US sugar oscillated lower on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, and continued to fall at night [5]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber had a narrow - range fluctuation. Natural rubber was strong while 20 - rubber was weak. Supported by the strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher at night. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 999,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 4. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated, with the M2601 contract closing at 3048 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [6]. - **Live Hogs**: The live hog futures price oscillated weakly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. In September, the market supply is still under pressure, but the consumption is seasonally picking up [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures oscillated slightly. The main contract P2601 closed at 9390, up 0.23%. Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons [8]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the cost supports the price. The domestic demand is expected to recover, but the export demand may decline [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose 1.67% to 791.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the demand is slightly weak, but the terminal demand in the peak season provides support [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2510 contract fell 2.14% to 3468 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the short - term price will oscillate [10]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13960 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 167 lots [10]. - **Log**: The 2511 log contract opened at 797, closed at 797, with an increase of 317 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [10][12]. - **Steel**: The rb2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is unstable, and the short - term price will fluctuate slightly [12]. - **Alumina**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2980 yuan/ton. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the cost support is weakening [13]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The al2510 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. The high - level oscillation of the main contract may continue, and the market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression" [13]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market had a significant pullback on September 4, with increased trading volume [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are under pressure. The coking coal inventory is increasing, and the coke price increase is not implemented while some areas propose price cuts [5]. - The sugar market is affected by the expected sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5]. - The rubber market is supported by the supply - side situation in Southeast Asia [6]. - The soybean meal price oscillates due to sufficient domestic supply and potential supply from South America [6][7]. - The live hog market has supply pressure in the short term, but the consumption is seasonally improving [7]. - The palm oil market shows a slight upward trend, and the production in Malaysia is estimated to increase [8]. - The Shanghai copper price is affected by supply, cost, demand, and external factors such as US economic data [9]. - The iron ore price oscillates due to the change in supply - demand relationship and the support from the peak - season demand [9]. - The asphalt price oscillates with the decline of capacity utilization rate and general terminal demand [10]. - The log market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. - The steel price has limited fluctuations, and the demand recovery will determine the future trend [12]. - The alumina price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakened cost support [13]. - The Shanghai aluminum price is in a balanced state between macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression [13]. 3. Factors Affecting Different Commodities Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: The eighth - round price increase is not implemented, and some areas propose the first - round price cut. The iron water production is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in China accounts for 30% of the terminal energy consumption, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. The mine inventory is increasing, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected sufficient supply in major producing countries and the decline of US sugar and spot prices affect the price of Zhengzhou sugar [5]. Rubber - The strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia support the price of Shanghai rubber [6]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean harvest is approaching, and Brazil's exports are expected to increase. In the domestic market, the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the potential supply from South America, and the increase of soybean meal inventory affect the price [6][7]. Live Hogs - The supply is under pressure in September, but the consumption is seasonally picking up due to the start of the school term [7]. Palm Oil - The production increase in Malaysia affects the price of palm oil [8]. Shanghai Copper - **Supply**: The domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and the refined copper production is expected to decline slightly. - **Cost**: The TC fee is negative, and the raw material price increase supports the copper price. - **Demand**: The export demand may decline due to US tariffs, but the domestic demand is expected to recover. - **External Factor**: The US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the copper price [9]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded to the annual high, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron water production has decreased slightly, but the peak - season demand provides support [9]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the terminal demand is general [10]. Log - The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. Steel - The demand for steel is unstable during the off - peak to peak - season transition. The cost changes little, and the production may remain high [12]. Alumina - The supply is increasing due to the resumption of production lines and the stable output of new capacity. The cost support is weakening due to the decline of bauxite price [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression", and the US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the market sentiment [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US labor market is cooling, and Fed officials' remarks have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut, leading to a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a weakening short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Treasury bonds will likely remain at a high level and fluctuate, also suggesting cautious waiting and seeing. In the commodity sector, black metals will be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will be fluctuating strongly, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; energy and chemicals will be fluctuating, and it is recommended to wait and see; precious metals will be strongly fluctuating at a high level, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US August "small non - farm" was below expectations, the number of initial jobless claims increased, and private enterprise recruitment slowed in August, indicating a cooling labor market. Fed officials said that a rate cut over time is appropriate, strengthening the rate - cut expectation [2]. - Domestic: China's August official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 but was below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. There is an enhanced expectation of US easing and domestic easing, but the domestic market sentiment has cooled [2]. - Asset performance: The stock index will fluctuate in the short term; treasury bonds will be at a high - level and fluctuate; black metals will be weakly fluctuating; non - ferrous metals will be strongly fluctuating; energy and chemicals will be fluctuating; precious metals will be strongly fluctuating at a high level. All suggest cautious operations [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and communications, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The fundamentals and policies are similar to the macro - finance situation. The short - term upward macro - drive is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously in the short term [3]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot market was stable on Thursday, and the futures price continued to be weak. In the traditional peak demand season, the actual demand was still weak, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreasing by nearly 300,000 tons and the inventory increasing by nearly 320,000 tons. Due to phased production restrictions, the steel output decreased by 236,800 tons this week, and the iron - water output is expected to decline slightly. The first round of coke price increase failed, and a price cut started. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong on Thursday. Phased production restrictions in the northern region reduced ore demand and affected port desilting volume. However, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and they are likely to resume production next week. The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [4][5]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in Inner Mongolia was stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity expected in October. In Ningxia, the operation was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The silicon iron price has cost support, and the production reduction intention is not strong. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - The main soda ash contract fluctuated on Thursday. The supply decreased this week, but there is still supply pressure in the new capacity launch cycle, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The demand was stable week - on - week, and the profit decreased. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. 3.3.5 Glass - The main glass contract fluctuated on Thursday. The supply increased slightly, the demand was stable, and the profit increased slightly. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - US job openings in July dropped to the lowest level in 10 months, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. However, a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, which may boost copper prices briefly [7]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices were weak on Thursday, and the inventory continued to increase. Although it is the peak season, demand is poor. The mid - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. A Fed rate cut in September may support the futures price [7][8]. 3.4.3 Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [8]. 3.4.4 Tin - The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. The supply of tin ore will be more abundant in the future. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory decreased last week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract rose 1.05% on Thursday. The inventory is gradually being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [9]. 3.4.6 Industrial Silicon - The main industrial silicon contract rose 0.12% on Thursday. Polysilicon is fluctuating at a high level, and industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. 3.4.7 Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract rose 0.55% on Thursday. There are expectations of capacity integration in the market. Polysilicon is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [10]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose 0.17% overnight. The USDA weekly export sales report was postponed. The market is waiting for the September 12 USDA report to see if it will revise the US soybean yield. The Midwest is experiencing drought, which has reduced the excellent - good rate [11]. 3.5.2 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic oilseeds have preventive procurement in the third quarter, with high import volumes and increasing operating rates, resulting in a large phased inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The price of US soybeans is likely to be under pressure after September 12 if the yield remains unchanged. Brazilian export quotes are rising. The future trend of rapeseed meal depends on Sino - Canadian trade policies [12]. 3.5.3 Oils - CBOT soybean oil futures rose overnight, and BMD palm oil futures also increased slightly. September palm oil exports are expected to be strong, but the future market depends on production data. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August is expected to increase to 2.2 million tons. Domestic palm oil imports have a deeper profit inversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.5.4 Corn - New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. In North China, corn prices are stable, with tight channel inventories. The port inventory is low, and the futures market has rebounded, which is positive for the market [13]. 3.5.5 Pigs - The spot price of pigs has rebounded and is weakly stable. In September, both supply and demand of pigs will increase. The cost of secondary fattening is at a low - profit level, and there is support from the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle. The pig price should not be overly pessimistic in September [14].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Global risk appetite has increased due to multiple Federal Reserve officials signaling potential interest rate cuts, while in China, although there are signs of improvement in the manufacturing PMI, it has remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. Market sentiment is divided, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors show various trends. Metals may have short - term fluctuations, energy chemicals are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as harvest seasons and trade policies. 3. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: Multiple Federal Reserve officials are paving the way for interest rate cuts. The Beige Book shows that economic activity is basically flat, the number of job openings in the US has unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year, indicating a slowdown in the job market, and the US dollar index has weakened [2]. - Domestic: China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Market sentiment has cooled, and risk appetite has decreased [2]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock indices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach; treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; different commodity sectors have different short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Stock Indices - The domestic stock market has declined significantly, dragged down by sectors such as military, small metals, and securities. The short - term upward macro - driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious wait - and - see is recommended [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak on Wednesday. Real - world demand has weakened, inventories have accumulated, and although there is short - term supply reduction due to production restrictions, the probability of steel mill复产 next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Ore demand has decreased, but steel mills are likely to resume production next week. The supply of iron ore has increased this week, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in different regions has different trends, and the prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight slowdown in the contraction rate. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally, but a September Fed interest rate cut may briefly boost copper prices [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, aluminum prices rose and then fell. The inventory has increased, and the medium - term upward space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to remain volatile [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. Supply is expected to ease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upward space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell on Wednesday. It is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation, with a short - term short and long - term long view [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Wednesday. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Wednesday. It is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may consider further production increases, and the price will continue to be priced between supply surplus and geopolitical supply risks. The spot market has slightly recovered in the short term, and the futures market is waiting for long - term bearish signals [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market fluctuates following the oil price. The cost - driven logic exists in the short term. Attention should be paid to the extent of its follow - up increase with the oil price in the later stage [14]. - **PX**: The price of PX is generally weak, supported only by maintenance plans. It is expected to remain volatile and wait for changes in PTA devices [14]. - **PTA**: The price is affected by downstream start - up recovery and upstream costs. It is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas device problems, port inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to downstream start - up recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is prominent, but the fundamentals show marginal improvement signs. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **PP**: The supply has reached a new high, and demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent currently. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has weakened. The weekly crop growth report shows changes in the excellent - good rate, pod - setting rate, and defoliation rate. The export inspection volume has also been reported [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans may be under pressure, and the risk preference of protein meals may decrease. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [19]. - **Oils**: The price of Malaysian palm oil futures has fallen. The inventory in August is expected to increase continuously. Domestic palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - **Corn**: New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The price in North China is stable, and the futures market has rebounded [20]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of pigs will both increase in September. The pig price is expected to show a weakly fluctuating trend [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract fluctuating between 3000 and 3060. The main influencing factors include the uncertainty of weather in US soybean - growing areas, the high arrival of imported soybeans in China, and the demand for soybean meal [8]. - The soybean market is in a neutral situation in the short term, with the A2511 contract fluctuating between 3920 and 4020. Factors such as the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and the demand for domestic soybeans affect the market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - No specific content provided for a detailed summary. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive USDA report data and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and tariff negotiations [12]. - In China, the arrival of imported soybeans remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills reached a relatively high level. Affected by the USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is in a short - term volatile and slightly bullish pattern [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, and the market is back in a range - bound pattern due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [12]. - The short - term bullish oscillation of soybean meal is affected by factors such as the possible weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas, the changeable Sino - US tariff war, and it awaits the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2990, with a basis of - 60, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 105.33 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 230, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 682.53 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024, showing the long - term supply - demand situation of soybeans globally and in China [31][32]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Present the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 22 to September 2, as well as the price trends of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from August 25 to September 2 [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: Record the quantity changes of soybean and soybean meal warehouse receipts from August 21 to September 2 [19]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, the A-share market and multiple futures varieties showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy restrictions, and international market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][11][12] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 2, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2875 billion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also adjusted downward, closing at 4490.45, a decrease of 33.26 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On September 2, the weighted coke index showed weak consolidation, closing at 1599.6, a decrease of 6.9. There is a temporary supply contraction due to upcoming northern regional restrictions, while steel mills also face restrictions, and cost support is weakening [2][4] - Coking Coal: On September 2, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 9.2. Some mines in major coal - producing areas have suspended production, and downstream enterprises will face restrictions, resulting in weak supply and demand [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction in spot prices and short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on September 2 and continued to fall slightly at night. India will allow unrestricted use of sugarcane juice, syrup, and molasses for ethanol production in the new season [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range fluctuation on September 2 and closed slightly higher. Boosted by rising crude oil prices, it rose slightly at night. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.6% [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 2, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.782 billion tons, a 5.6% increase year - on - year. Domestically, on September 2, soybean meal futures fluctuated. The M2601 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease. High imports and high processing volumes have led to sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5] Live Hogs - On September 2, live hog futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2511 contract closed at 13595 yuan/ton, a 0.22% decrease. In September, supply is sufficient, and some areas face disease risks. Although there is a recovery in terminal demand due to the start of the school season, the support for prices is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is high [7] Palm Oil - On September 2, palm oil futures continued a slight rebound but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2601 closed at 9422, a 0.4% increase. Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 30.53% year - on - year, while production decreased by 2.65% [8] Shanghai Copper - Positive macro factors and supply - tightening expectations will support copper prices. With low inventory and high premiums in China, and the approaching peak consumption season, demand is expected to increase. However, high prices may suppress some purchasing intentions [8] Cotton - On the night of September 2, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 189 lots [9] Iron Ore - On September 2, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%. Global shipments have reached a high for the year, and arrivals have increased. Short - term prices are in a fluctuating trend due to production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] Asphalt - On September 2, the main contract of asphalt 2510 fluctuated and rose 1.17%, closing at 3551 yuan. The capacity utilization rate has decreased, inventory reduction is slow, and with the approaching peak demand season, prices are expected to fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 2, the log futures contract 2511 opened at 820, closed at 810.5, and increased in positions by 755 lots. The price broke below the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to factors such as peak - season prices, imports, and inventory [9][10][11] Steel Products - On September 2, rb2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3298 yuan/ton. The market lacks strong macro - drivers, and the fundamentals are weak, which may continue to suppress prices [11] Alumina - On September 2, ao2601 closed at 3022 yuan/ton. Some domestic enterprises are under maintenance, and production and operating rates have slightly declined, but the supply is still relatively loose, and the market may continue to be weak [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 2, al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is favorable, but the peak - season expectations have not been realized. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is in a range - bound trend [12]

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The recent US-China trade negotiations revealed signs of US concessions, driven by complex pressures on the US administration [4] - The US Trade Representative's office released a list of exempted products from tariffs, including critical components for core US industries, indicating a strategic retreat in key sectors [5] - Major semiconductor companies expressed deep concerns over supply chain disruptions, shifting from advocating for decoupling from China to seeking stability in supply chains [6] Group 2: Impact of US Policies on Domestic Economy - The US has intensified targeted pressure on China's tech sector, which has negatively impacted its own economy, as seen in Nvidia's report indicating a potential 20% revenue drop if supplies to China are halted [7] - The US strategy of "precise containment" has led to a paradox where it aims to suppress China's tech growth while simultaneously protecting its own economic interests [14][15] Group 3: China's Economic Position and Resource Control - China maintains a dominant position in the global supply chain, particularly in rare earth elements, with nearly 90% of refining capacity concentrated in the country [9] - China's economic diversification is evident, with a decreasing reliance on the US market, projected to drop from nearly 20% in 2018 to 15% by 2025 [12] - The structural upgrade of China's export products, particularly in the automotive and renewable energy sectors, showcases its growing international competitiveness [13] Group 4: Future of US-China Relations - The US's recent policy adjustments, such as extending tariff exemptions, reflect a response to internal and external pressures rather than a strategic shift [16] - The ongoing competition and cooperation between the US and China will shape future interactions, with both countries needing to find a balance in their relationship [16]

品 研 第 2025 年 09 月 01 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com (基本面跟踪) 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 右安期赏研 期货研究 FETH H 的担忧继续笼罩着大豆市场。上周大豆价格攀升至两个月高点,受到市场预期中国将恢复购买美国大豆的 提振。但目前尚未确认任何此类采购。未来几天，交易商将密切关注中美贸易谈判,中国高级贸易谈判代 表李成钢将访问华盛顿。一位分析师称,由于中国需求不足，大豆价格受到限制,在中国采购美国大豆之 前,大豆市场会一直受到压制。因公共假期,美国市场将于下周一休市。交易商在月底和长周末到来之前 调整仓位。(汇易网) 商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢与美国政府部门相关官员以及工商界代表举行会谈会见。当 地时间8月27日-29日,商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢访问美国;与美国财政部、商务部和 贸易代表办公室相关官员举行会谈。双方围绕落实中美两国元首通话共识,就中美经贸关系、落实中美经 贸会谈共识等问题进行了交流沟通。李成钢强调，中美双方应秉持相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢原则, 继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 5.25 to close at 1053 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.5%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 33 to close at 3055 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.07%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 10 to close at 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.34%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 30 to close at 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.18%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39% [4]. - U.S. soybeans oscillated. The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was higher than expected; the re - allocation of the U.S. biodiesel exemption volume to large refineries might face significant resistance, and U.S. soybean oil prices declined during the week; new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated and declined during the week. The oil mill operating rate was at a high level, and soybean meal inventory was expected to increase. The Chinese trade delegation went to the U.S. for negotiations. Trump previously posted that he hoped China would purchase U.S. soybeans. There were positive expectations for the conclusion of an agricultural product agreement in this negotiation. Market sentiment cooled, and long - position funds reduced their positions to avoid risks [4][7]. - Precipitation in U.S. soybean production areas will be below the average in the next two weeks, which may be unfavorable for the growth and development during the pod - setting period. There is a high possibility that the high - yield per - unit estimate will be revised down. Attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the September USDA report. As the positive sentiment expectation of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations is gradually priced in, the decline of domestic soybean meal futures slows down. Attention should be paid to whether an agricultural product agreement is reached and announced. In terms of ship - booking, China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans yet, and the purchase progress for the November - January shipping period is slow compared with the same period. The release of reserve soybeans has alleviated the tight supply expectation to some extent, but the tight supply expectation remains unchanged without effective replenishment of distant - end soybean purchases. In the short term, domestic soybean meal futures may oscillate within a range [4][7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract dropped 5.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.5%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 6 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 3 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.64%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit increased by 41.16 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 33 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.07%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 30 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.18%; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased by 3 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price remained unchanged; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.34%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 23 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean: The good - to - excellent rate was higher than expected, but dry conditions in the production areas since mid - August may lead to a downward revision of the high - yield per - unit estimate in the September USDA report. The re - allocation of the U.S. biodiesel exemption volume to large refineries faces resistance, and new - crop export sales exceeded expectations but the overall sales progress is slow [4][7]. - Domestic soybean meal: The oil mill operating rate is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory is expected to increase. The Sino - U.S. trade negotiation has positive expectations for the agricultural product agreement, which cools the market sentiment and causes long - position funds to reduce their positions [4][7]. - Supply and demand: China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans, and the purchase progress for the November - January shipping period is slow. The release of reserve soybeans alleviates the tight supply expectation, but the tight supply expectation remains without effective replenishment of distant - end soybean purchases [4][7][11]. Industry News - Brazil: In August, the daily average soybean export volume increased by 24% compared with the same period last year; a federal judge approved a ban to temporarily suspend the "Amazon soybean ban" plan; farmers in Paraná state are preparing for the 2025/26 sowing, but the planting area may decline [12][14][16]. - Canada: As of August 17, the weekly rapeseed export volume decreased by 64.34%; from August 1 to 17, the rapeseed export volume decreased by 46.16% compared with the same period last year; in July, the rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13% month - on - month; the Canadian government expects the 2025 rapeseed output to increase by 3.6% [12][13][16]. - EU: As of August 24, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed import volumes decreased compared with the same period last year [14]. - Argentina: As of August 20, the cumulative sales volume of 2024/25 soybeans reached 2989.56 million tons [16].

Group 1 - The U.S. administration's statement that "America's cards are stronger than China's" has sparked significant public debate, coinciding with reports of a potential visit by a Chinese trade representative to the U.S. for discussions [1] - The Chinese government maintains a cautious stance, emphasizing that negotiations should occur within a framework of mutual respect and cooperation, while also asserting its commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty and development interests [1][3] - Since May, China and the U.S. have engaged in three rounds of talks, resulting in a mutual reduction of tariffs by 24% and a 90-day "truce window," indicating a methodical approach to easing tensions rather than succumbing to threats [3] Group 2 - Trump's threat of imposing a 200% tariff on rare earth exports from China is seen as a significant leverage point, but its implementation could adversely affect U.S. industries that rely on these materials, as China dominates the rare earth supply chain [3][5] - The U.S. is attempting to build its domestic rare earth supply chain, but faces challenges such as limited reserves and production capacity, while China is enhancing its control over export licenses and industry dynamics [7] - The notion that tariffs could "destroy China" is viewed as exaggerated, as the disruption of global supply chains would likely have detrimental effects on the U.S. economy, including inflation and job losses [7][8] Group 3 - The rare earth sector is a strategic asset for China, and the country is unlikely to concede easily unless the U.S. makes substantial concessions, with the current tariff threats serving more as a negotiation tactic than a definitive endgame [8]