配置上，从规避不确定性的角度，自主科技、受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利 以及不依赖短期业绩的题材料将占优。我们认为市场将在广义上的内循环、新的科技主题轮动。 图片来源：摄图网 PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 关注内循环 僵持阶段看什么 策略聚焦 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 玛西高娃 贸易战僵持阶段，超预期的刺激和基于妥协的贸易协议都很难发生；僵持阶段比的是两国的经济韧性，中 国的政策选项更多、空间更大、能耗更久，对美国而言，7月前大规模的国债到期可能会是特朗普关税政策 的第一个动摇点；A股也是中国贸易战中提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心， 港股可能是阶段性的薄弱环节，但也要看到内地资金依旧整体明显低配港股。配置上，从规避不确定性的 角度，自主科技、受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利以及不依赖短期业绩的题材 料将占优。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期；特朗普政策侧 重点超预期。 点 ...

突破3400之后一直偏空，仓位只有30%，想等大跌再重新建仓，但贸易战后国家队介入超预 期，仅4月8号加了10%的仓位，之后一直没动。 站在现在的时点上，从国内政策端，个人一直认为没有有效手段应对通缩，货币政策也是跟 随或者等应对式的；从国际看美国衰退注定全球经济都好不了，东升西落的逻辑是行不通 的；不确定的是后面贸易战如果真的有缓和，以A股目前的位置有3%-5%的空间？好像也不 值得做一波？ 特请教下各位大神的意见。 资水 从博弈的角度谈一下个人观点。 lcqubeley 缓和了a股反而要跌，因为没有护盘预期了， 做a股要十分反人性。 Sorrentino 无论有没有缓和，都有很大的上行空间。 前期GJD托底，原因大概是贸易战不能示弱的统一部署。通常来讲，凡是有托底，必然涨不 高。加之经济预期下调，所以后市大盘应该是涨不上去的。 大盘短线企稳之下，游资必然活跃，所以ST股、微盘股最近抓住短暂的时间窗大涨。但退市 杀即将来临，风险也很大了。 还有一个机会点，主营是美国业务的股票，包括果链、英伟达链、特斯拉链、亚马逊链等， 受贸易战打击太狠，又没有被GJD资金照顾到，还处在深跌20%~30%的位置。如果贸易战缓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 23, the A - share market fluctuated narrowly, with the Wind All - A index rising 0.35% and a trading volume of 1.26 trillion yuan. Trump softened his stance on tariffs, saying that the tariff rate on China would be significantly reduced but not zero. Affected by this, gold prices fell from their highs, and the Nasdaq rose 2.7% intraday. Sectors such as new energy vehicles, electronics, and home appliances, which were previously affected by tariffs, strengthened, while the consumption and real - estate sectors weakened again. The China Securities 1000 Index rose 0.59%, the China Securities 500 Index rose 0.19%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.08%, and the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.29%. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, but expenditure increased by 4.2%, showing positive policy characteristics. The issuance progress of ordinary national bonds reached 30%, with a significantly earlier rhythm. China's Q1 GDP was 5.4%, and the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in March was 5.9%, with the consumption side making an excessive contribution to the economic aggregate. The US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern, and it may have a long - term impact on the A - share market. In the future, China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, and themes such as consumption and dividends may be relatively dominant for a long time this year. Technology themes can focus on sub - fields such as domestic substitution and high - capital expenditure. The overall view on the stock index is "oscillation" [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed with the 30 - year main contract down 0.40%, the 10 - year main contract down 0.17%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.04%. The central bank conducted 108 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%. There were 104.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net investment of 3.5 billion yuan. The economic and financial data in March were better than expected, reducing the need for short - term monetary policy to take action. Without the expected double - cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further and is expected to remain sideways in the short term. The overall view on treasury bonds is "oscillation" [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 23, 2025, compared with April 22, 2025, IH was at 2,627.4, down 10.0 or - 0.38%; IF was at 3,734.0, up 1.0 or 0.03%; IC was at 5,495.0, up 9.0 or 0.16%; IM was at 5,820.0, up 50.4 or 0.87% [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index was at 2,648.8, down 7.7 or - 0.29%; the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index was at 3,786.9, up 2.9 or 0.08%; the China Securities 500 Index was at 5,634.9, up 10.7 or 0.19%; the China Securities 1000 Index was at 5,984.6, up 35.3 or 0.59% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS was at 102.37, down 0.034 or - 0.03%; TF was at 106.02, down 0.145 or - 0.14%; T was at 108.77, down 0.2 or - 0.18%; TL was at 119.92, up 0.59 or 0.49% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yield of the 2 - year treasury bond was 1.4705, up 1.35; the 5 - year was 1.5354, up 1.73; the 10 - year was 1.6618, up 1.24; the 30 - year was 1.9225, up 1.95 [4]. 3.2 Market News - The director of the People's Bank of China Research Bureau, Wang Xin, said on April 23 that the "Action Plan for Further Improving Cross - border Financial Service Facilitation in Shanghai International Financial Center" will improve the cross - border fund allocation of the full - function fund pool in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, encourage banks to gradually automate cross - border payment processing, and extend the service time for the cross - border fund pool of key enterprise groups to achieve real - time global fund allocation [5]. - The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Lu Lei, said on April 23 that the "Action Plan for Further Improving Cross - border Financial Service Facilitation in Shanghai International Financial Center" has two core points: highlighting the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center and focusing on improving cross - border financial service facilitation. In 2024, the total cross - border RMB receipts and payments in Shanghai reached 29.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30%, accounting for 47% of the country's total business volume [5]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stated on April 23 that on April 22, the "Seminar on Promoting Entrepreneurial Spirit and Accelerating the Construction of World - Class Enterprises" (Phase 2) was held. The Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Zhang Yuzhuo, said that central enterprises should accelerate the development of new - quality productive forces, cultivate a number of strategic emerging industries and future industries with core competitiveness, and better play the roles of technological innovation, industrial control, and security support [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 [14][16][18][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 are presented [23][24][25][27][28]. 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the treasury bond analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [30]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [30].

上周五，沪指跌0.11%报3276.73点，深证成指涨0.23%报9781.65点，创业板指涨0.27%报1913.97点，北 证50指数涨1.98%，沪深北三市合计成交9493亿元，较此前一交易日减少逾800亿元。行业方面，旅游 出行、食品饮料、农业、纺织服装、半导体等板块走低，地产板块强势拉升，石油、券商、银行等板块 均上扬，6G概念、海洋经济、新型城镇概念等活跃。 中信证券指出，资金保持低风险偏好，市场呈现出持续高轮动特征，建议根据市场情况均衡配置。市场 将在广义上的内循环、新的科技主题轮动。美国关税对经济增长的长期影响尚待评估，国内维护楼市和 股市的政策持续出台对市场预期托底，科技产业经历了一轮情绪高潮后逐步进入冷静期。从主题环境来 看，综合流动性指标和市场风格特征，市场或在低位板块持续轮动。 今日投资机会解析 银行经营整体稳健 截至4月20日，6家上市银行（包含1家大行，3家股份行及2家农商行）已披露2025年一季度业绩或经营 情况。从6家银行经营情况看，一季度财务指标和资产质量总体稳健。 中信证券表示，上周银行板块表现乐观，核心驱动要素在于市场波动率加大背景下，银行板块受益于其 稳定回报和股指权重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is characterized by a low-risk preference for funds and a continuous high rotation feature, suggesting a balanced allocation based on market conditions. The focus is on domestic circulation and new technology themes, with ongoing policies to stabilize the real estate and stock markets impacting market expectations [1][2]. Market Overview - The A-share market is primarily driven by domestic circulation, with rapid rotation of new technology concepts lacking sustainability. Concerns over tariff risks have led to increased risk aversion among investors. The U.S. maintains a hardline stance on tariffs against China, while China seeks multilateral trade with ASEAN and EU countries [2][3]. Theme Environment 1) Concerns persist regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on the macro economy, with a significant increase in tariffs on certain Chinese goods to 245%, leading to a near halt in exports to the U.S. and heightened global market volatility [3]. 2) President Xi Jinping's recent visits to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia aim to strengthen multilateral trade with ASEAN countries, enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including electric vehicles and agricultural products [4]. 3) The A-share market has seen a decline in trading volume, with the total trading volume dropping to 914.66 billion yuan, the lowest in 2025. Defensive sectors like banking remain strong, while real estate and urbanization concepts have gained traction [5]. Catalytic Factors 1) The State Council is set to hold a press conference focusing on the opening of the service industry, with ongoing stimulus policies aimed at domestic circulation [6]. 2) Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are expected, with the Ministry of Finance planning to inject 100 billion yuan into the market to alleviate liquidity pressure on commercial banks, benefiting small and micro enterprises [6]. Focus Areas - The domestic circulation is anticipated to boost low-positioned domestic demand sectors, with potential reversals in the consumer electronics market. The self-sufficiency trend is expected to benefit the aerospace and military sectors, while industrial transformations may favor the deep-sea economy [7].

Summary of Conference Call on China CRRC's Financial Report Company and Industry - **Company**: China CRRC Corporation Limited - **Industry**: Railway Equipment and Transportation Core Points and Arguments 1. **Positive Outlook on Railway Equipment**: The company maintains a strong outlook on the railway equipment sector, particularly in the context of domestic infrastructure investment under the "internal circulation" strategy [1][2] 2. **Strong Performance Despite Market Conditions**: China CRRC achieved a notable stock price increase following the release of its financial report, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment [2] 3. **Inventory and Contract Liabilities Growth**: The company's inventory and contract liabilities grew by 15% to 20%, while revenue growth was only 6%, attributed to the delivery cycle of railway equipment [3] 4. **High Repair Cycle**: The high repair cycle for railway vehicles is expected to lead to significant revenue recognition in the first half of 2025, as repairs typically have a short turnaround time [4] 5. **Profit Surpassing Expectations**: The company reported profits that exceeded expectations due to a faster growth rate in railway equipment, particularly in the high-margin passenger train segment, and a decrease in expense ratios [5] 6. **Stable Industry Demand**: The demand for new vehicles and high-level repairs remains strong, with an estimated order volume of approximately 17 billion for the last quarter of the previous year [6] 7. **Focus on Asset Quality Improvement**: The company is prioritizing stable profitability and asset quality improvement, with growth being a secondary focus [7] 8. **Future Revenue Projections**: The company anticipates stable performance in 2025, with a cautious outlook on growth rates, while 2026's performance will depend on this year's order volume [8] 9. **Replacement Cycle for Equipment**: The replacement cycle for locomotives is expected to contribute positively to revenue in 2025 and 2026, despite a potential decline in new passenger train orders [9] 10. **Long-term Profitability Potential**: The company aims to achieve profits exceeding 50 billion, driven by stable growth in the railway sector and new industries [10] 11. **Market Recovery Potential**: The company is seen as a stable growth asset, with potential for market recovery and an increase in market capitalization [13] 12. **Overall Industry Sentiment**: The railway equipment sector remains optimistic, with continuous growth in related industries and a stable demand outlook [14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Dynamics**: The company is positioned well within the domestic market, with a growing customer base and increasing demand for high-level repairs, which could provide additional revenue streams [12] - **Valuation Considerations**: The current market valuation of the company is seen as attractive, especially in comparison to historical price-to-book ratios, indicating potential for future price appreciation [13]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is gradually recovering, with the overall A-share market down by 4.31%. The Sci-Tech 50, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 indices showed relative resilience, while the CSI 1000, micro-cap stocks, and ChiNext index led the decline. In terms of sector performance, consumer and financial real estate sectors were more resilient, while pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors faced declines [1][14]. - The report highlights the "counter-tariff" measures and the determination to stabilize the market in response to the U.S. tariffs. It notes that the Chinese government has taken rapid countermeasures to maintain a strong stance against U.S. tariff threats, which are characterized as "digital games" [3][33]. - The report emphasizes that the Chinese assets exhibit strong endogenous stability, and the impact of external market shocks may favor the return of foreign capital. It suggests that the unpredictability of U.S. tariffs should lead to a stable outlook rather than a reactive one [5][9]. Group 2 - The report discusses the significant market fluctuations following the announcement of "counter-tariffs," leading to a "three-kill" scenario in U.S. stocks, bonds, and currency. The S&P 500 index fell sharply, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a rapid decline before rebounding after the announcement of a 90-day delay in tariff implementation [4][42]. - The report outlines the measures taken by the "national team" to stabilize the market, including increased holdings in ETFs such as the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and others. The report notes that these actions are part of a broader strategy to support the capital market and restore investor confidence [3][50]. - The report identifies key investment directions, including domestic demand, independent innovation, countermeasures, the Belt and Road Initiative, dividends, and gold as a hedge against uncertainty. It emphasizes the importance of enhancing domestic circulation to mitigate the impact of export fluctuations [5][9].

我明确给了大家一则箴言：保持定力，坚守能力圈，放眼长期。什么意思呢？就是希望大家不要在这种 行情中迷失了自我，忘记了自己的初心。这是非常可悲的。 换算过来，就是不要频繁交易，这山望着那山高。否则，你铁定挨打，而且受伤程度还不轻。 上周，因为贸易摩擦等因素的影响，A股出现了大落小起的走势，很多人倒霉，也有人开心。 上周二、三慢慢进场之后，我的内心十分平静，并且告诉大家，耐心等待种子变大即可，不要慌里慌张 的。 连续几天都是笑哈哈！ 板块上： 第一：内循环板块持续上涨 今天打开软件，整车、家具、零售、自贸区等内循环板块持续上攻，对于国际贸易摩擦开始免疫了。 指数虽然大涨，但银行、证券涨了个寂寞，尤其是证券，明明是风向标板块，却搞成了反面教材。 人只有坚守自己的能力圈，赚自己看得懂的钱才能够持久。但上周的大幅波动，对于绝大多数散户来 说，就是致命的诱惑。 倘若你无法坚守自己的能力圈，那么被揍只是早晚的事情。 周末多个巨头也发布了协助外贸企业转内销的重大利好消息，助力经济转型。这都是前所有为的动作， 也是对经济的利好。 不过，我认为本质还是提高大家的收入，让大家有足够的实力消费。 第二：银行证券不是很给力 最后再重复 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation as a more controllable option for China, suggesting that the focus should be on domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a response to the uncertainties brought by the "reciprocal tariffs" initiated by the U.S. [5][6] - The high-purity quartz sector is highlighted as a leading area, with domestic companies expected to benefit from the potential increase in import costs due to tariffs, making long-term domestic substitution promising [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index decreased by 2.4% while the overall market indices saw declines of 3.1% to 6.7% [9] - Notable stock performances included a 29.0% increase for Zhongqi New Materials and a 19.9% decrease for Jingxue Energy Saving [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 396.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8 yuan/ton week-on-week, but an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton year-on-year [15] - The national cement inventory ratio is 60.2%, up 3.3 percentage points week-on-week [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1413.0 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 6.3 yuan/ton week-on-week [33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/square meter, remaining stable week-on-week [38] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price for non-alkali glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [45] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week [49] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing tariff disputes initiated by the U.S. and their implications for the construction materials sector, highlighting the potential for increased domestic production and substitution [14] - The discovery of high-purity quartz mines in China is noted as a significant development that could reduce reliance on imports [14]

Group 1 - The company reported a closing price of 2.21 yuan as of April 11, 2025, with no change in price, a turnover rate of 1.73%, a trading volume of 231,700 shares, and a transaction amount of 51.281 million yuan [1] - The company is benefiting from domestic circulation policies aimed at stimulating consumption and economic growth, creating a favorable external environment for business development [2][3] - The company is actively pursuing green and low-carbon transformation, with its logistics parks receiving top-level green warehouse certifications and the first zero-carbon park project in Shanghai gaining international recognition [4][5] Group 2 - The company collaborates with China Nuclear Technology to promote rooftop photovoltaic construction in its parks, contributing to high-quality development through green energy [6] - The company provides domestic warehousing and logistics services for cross-border e-commerce enterprises but does not directly engage in cross-border e-commerce activities [7] - On April 11, there was a net outflow of 2.6182 million yuan from main funds, a net outflow of 2.5899 million yuan from speculative funds, and a net inflow of 5.2081 million yuan from retail investors [8]