Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.22% to close at 3,380.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.96%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.10 trillion RMB, with over 4,200 stocks declining. Only the banking, media, and household appliance sectors saw gains, while the beauty care and social services sectors led the losses. Concept sectors such as mobile gaming and terahertz technology performed well, while epoxy propylene and graphite electrode concepts faced significant declines. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.19%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.70%. Internationally, the U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.28%. European and Asia-Pacific markets also experienced declines [2][6]. Important News - The tax reduction bill proposed by U.S. President Trump passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin on May 22. The bill aims to reduce taxes by over 4 trillion USD over the next decade and cut at least 1.5 trillion USD in spending. It will also raise the U.S. debt ceiling by 4 trillion USD, which is lower than the 5 trillion USD sought by the Senate [3][7]. - Xiaomi held its 15th-anniversary strategic product launch on May 22, unveiling three new products equipped with its self-developed Xuanjie chip: the Xiaomi 15S Pro, Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, and Xiaomi Watch S4 15th Anniversary Edition. The highly anticipated Xiaomi YU7, the company's first SUV, was also officially launched, positioned as a "luxury high-performance SUV" with features like laser radar and extended battery life, set to be released in July. Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun stated that the company has committed to chip development for at least 10 years with an investment of over 50 billion RMB, and plans to invest an additional 200 billion RMB in core technology research and development over the next five years [3][7].

特朗普已对数十个美国贸易伙伴实施了10%的基础关税，并暂时搁置了征收更高关税的计划。他还对许 多中国进口商品加征了30%的关税，此前对中国商品征收的关税甚至曾超过100%。 尽管近期对华关税有所缓解，经济学家普遍预计特朗普的贸易政策将抑制经济增长，并推高通胀水平。 沃勒重申，他预计与关税相关的通胀上行将是暂时的。 他指出，如果政府恢复更高水平的关税，将"对通胀造成更大影响，并大大限制我们对短期利率的调整 空间"。 沃勒的讲话是在特朗普标志性的减税法案以微弱优势在众议院获得通过后不久发表的。该法案接下来将 提交参议院审议，内容包括延续特朗普第一任期的减税政策、提高美国债务上限，并进一步增加联邦财 政赤字。 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周四表示，如果特朗普政府对美国贸易伙伴征收的关税维持在约10%的水 平，美联储可能在2025年下半年开始降息。 沃勒周四在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示："如果我们能将关税降到接近10%，并且在7月前尘埃落 定、彻底落实，那么下半年我们就处于一个不错的位置。" 他补充道："那美联储就有良好条件，在下半年进行一系列降息行动。" 由于整体经济表现稳健，以及对特朗普关税政策的不确定性，美联储 ...

Core Points - The Trump 2.0 tax reform plan has passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 215 votes in favor and 214 against, but faces significant challenges in the Senate [1][2] - The bill includes major tax cuts, an increase in the debt ceiling, and the repeal of Biden's clean energy tax credits, indicating a shift in fiscal policy [4][5] - The legislation is expected to increase the national debt by $2.3 trillion and could lead to a significant budget deficit, raising concerns among market observers [15][16] Group 1: Legislative Process - The bill was passed in the House after numerous last-minute modifications aimed at uniting different factions within the Republican Party [2][6] - Senate Republicans have committed to making substantial changes to the bill before it can be voted on, indicating potential internal conflicts [7][8] - The bill's passage in the Senate may utilize the "budget reconciliation" process, allowing it to bypass the usual 60-vote requirement [7] Group 2: Key Provisions - The bill extends the corporate and individual tax cuts from Trump's first term, which were set to expire at the end of the year [5] - It raises the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting taxpayers in high-tax states [5][10] - The legislation includes provisions for increased military spending and immigration enforcement, alongside cuts to safety net programs [5] Group 3: Political Implications - The bill is seen as a significant victory for Trump, reinforcing his influence over the Republican Party and fulfilling key campaign promises [9][10] - Democratic leaders have criticized the bill as detrimental to working families, framing it as a "robbery from the poor to give to the rich" [14][15] - The political fallout from the bill could impact the upcoming midterm elections, with Democrats vowing to hold Republicans accountable [14][15] Group 4: Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the bill will reduce resources for low-income families by 4% while increasing resources for high-income families by 2% [15] - Concerns about the bill's impact on the national debt have already influenced market sentiment, leading to declines in major stock indices prior to the vote [17] - The Federal Budget Accountability Committee has expressed alarm over the potential for the bill to exacerbate the national debt by over $3 trillion [16]

美国美国行政管理和预算局（OMB）主任沃特：特朗普的减税法案不会影响赤字。 ...

美国总统特朗普："美丽大法案"减税法案具有重大意义。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a broad decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.22% to 3380.19 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index down by 0.95%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.15% [1] - The total trading volume across A-shares was 1.1397 trillion yuan, a decrease from 1.2144 trillion yuan on Wednesday [1] - Small-cap stocks led the decline, while sectors such as banking, insurance, coal, oil, and public transportation saw gains [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that experienced the largest declines included batteries, non-metallic materials, engineering consulting services, automotive services, professional services, beauty care, instrumentation, electronic chemicals, and food and beverage [1] - The recent pullback in small-cap stocks is attributed to excessive inflows of funds and crowded trading, leading to volatility in market sentiment [1] U.S. Market Influence - The U.S. financial market faced a "triple hit" with declines in stocks, currencies, and bonds, as all three major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1% [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 4.973% to 5.094%, while the 20-year yield increased from 4.998% to 5.122%, and the 10-year yield went from 4.487% to 4.601% [1] - The poor demand in the recent 20-year Treasury auction, with a yield exceeding 5%, contributed to the negative sentiment in the U.S. market [2] Investor Sentiment - Despite the decline in small-cap stocks, the overall market sentiment remains relatively stable, with most stocks that had limited prior gains not experiencing significant declines [2] - International institutions have shown a noticeable improvement in their outlook on A-shares, with foreign capital entering the market [2] - Positive signals from China regarding tariff negotiations, military product capabilities, and chip development may contribute to a gradual accumulation of favorable conditions in the market [2]

| m | 贵金属日评20250522:特朗普减税法案延长并扩大规模,英国4月消费通胀超预期和前值 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-20 | 收盘价 | 778.78 | 754. 38 | 739. 82 | 24. 40 | 38. 96 | | | | | 成交重 | 396470.00 | 744074.00 | 127,525.00 | -347, 604. 00 | 268945.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 211353.00 | 11, 141. 00 | 11, 306. 00 | 222494.00 | 211188.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 17247.00 | 17238.00 | 17238.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 上海黄金 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-22 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The agreement to raise the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 is a significant step towards resolving the final issues hindering President Trump's economic and tax reform agenda, although it faces opposition from some conservative factions within the Republican Party [1][2]. Group 1: SALT Deduction Changes - The SALT deduction cap is proposed to increase from $10,000 to $40,000, aimed at benefiting high-income taxpayers in high-tax states [1][2]. - The new cap will be phased out for taxpayers earning over $500,000, with the same limit applying to individual taxpayers and married couples filing jointly [2][4]. - The SALT deduction allows taxpayers to deduct state and local taxes from their federal taxable income, which was previously unlimited before the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) imposed the $10,000 cap [1][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The agreement has sparked backlash from conservative Republicans who demand larger spending cuts to offset the tax reductions, indicating a divide within the party [5]. - Some Republican representatives from high-tax states have threatened to vote against the tax plan if the SALT cap is not sufficiently raised, highlighting the importance of this issue for their constituents [3][4]. - The legislative prospects remain uncertain due to concerns over deficits and the voting intentions of representatives from blue states, suggesting that further adjustments to the bill may be necessary [2][5].