1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - In the spot and futures market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,179 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton (-1.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,216 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.45%). The spot basis of EG in East China was 21 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. After Trump's attitude softened, concerns about plant shutdowns due to high ethane import tariffs eased on Thursday, leading to a decline in EG prices [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $3/ton from the previous period. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -227 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 77.5 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period. According to Longzhong data, it was 68.8 tons, down 1.9 tons from last week. The planned arrivals at major ports this week were 19.6 tons, slightly on the high side. The inventory has rebounded compared to Monday. The current inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory is still high. Attention should be paid to the impact of de - stocking on port inventory [1]. - On the supply side, with the centralized maintenance of coal - based plants, the domestic supply of EG has declined. The Sino - US trade war also affects the supply of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the polyester load has remained stable at a high level in the near term, but the textile and clothing orders directly exported to the US are still on hold. The overall EG inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years. There is some de - stocking support in April, but the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still high, limiting the actual de - stocking amplitude of port inventory [1][2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge MEG. Given the US tariff increase and OPEC+ production increase, the medium - term outlook for crude oil prices is weak. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations. The fundamentals of MEG itself are acceptable, but the textile and clothing demand outlook remains weak due to the suspension of direct exports to the US [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided. 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price of EG in the East China market, and the spot basis of EG in East China, along with their changes from the previous trading day [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - based EG, coal - based syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as their changes from the previous period [1]. International Price Difference - The international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol is presented [17]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Information on the sales and production of long - filament and short - fiber, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun long - filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chip is provided [18][20][24]. Inventory Data - Data on the inventory of ethylene glycol at major ports in East China, including overall inventory and inventory at specific ports, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at major ports in East China are given [1][28][31][33][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices have increased. Shandong's spot prices have risen slightly, and the futures market has strengthened marginally. With low production levels and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall stable inventories and a generally positive trend. The market in the north is tight, while supply in the east and south is relatively ample. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April production schedules. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the short - term outlook is weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to actual inventory levels and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract are recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data - From April 10th to April 16th, the low - end spot prices in East China and Shandong remained unchanged at 3550 yuan/ton and 3330 yuan/ton respectively, and the low - end spot price in Northeast China remained at 3750 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased by 23 yuan to 3278 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract increased by 23 yuan to 132 yuan/ton. The CFR price of South Korean asphalt in East China remained at 465 dollars/ton, and the RMB - denominated price increased by 2 yuan to 4104 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong coker feedstock remained at 4310 yuan/ton [1] 2. Daily Review - Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly. The daily asphalt production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1] 3. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, with tightening crude oil supply and rising oil prices, asphalt prices have increased. Shandong's spot prices have risen slightly, and the futures market has strengthened marginally. With low production levels and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall stable inventories and a generally positive trend. The market in the north is tight, while supply in the east and south is relatively ample. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April production schedules. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the short - term outlook is weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to actual inventory levels and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract are recommended [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a low - level shock. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has marginally rebounded, and the monthly spread has rebounded periodically. The hype of Iran's supply cut is the core reason for this round of strength. Currently, it is mainly based on expected trading. From a configuration perspective, long - term contracts can be partially over - allocated. [3] - The US Treasury has imposed the fourth round of sanctions on Iran this year. This round of sanctions is more precise, and the sanctions on Shandong Luqing and Huizhou Port have been intensified. Sanctions have shifted from path - based to buyer - based, which is an escalation of sanctions. The arrival of Iranian oil has been affected. [3] - The US has also strengthened sanctions on Venezuela. The impact of current policies on Venezuela is neutrally evaluated. [3] - Other fundamentals remain in a periodically improving state. After the spring maintenance, the seasonal start - up of refineries has begun to pick up, and the purchasing demand in the US and Europe has gradually emerged. If the upward driving force shifts from the supply side to the demand side, some positive arbitrage operations can be selectively carried out. [3] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Market Influencing Factors - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's compensation production cut plan has been released. Conservatively assessing the compensation production cut intensity, sources claim that OPEC + may plan a second production increase in May, so the probability of an increase in supply is relatively high [4]. - **Macro**: The macro - environment remains weak, and the turning point of sentiment should be monitored [4]. - **SPR**: The US SPR repurchase plan has stopped. Trump said that the stockpiling step will be restarted in the low - oil - price range [4]. - **Geopolitics**: The US - Russia negotiation continues, and there are periodic conflicts in the Middle East. Overall, there are no new variables [4]. - **Downstream Demand**: The widening of downstream profits has driven the recovery of refinery start - up. Attention should be paid to the purchasing demand brought about by the subsequent increase in refinery start - up [4]. - **Shale Oil**: Last week, the production was 13.57 million barrels per day, and the number of rigs remained unchanged at 486. In the medium - to - long term, the boost to production is limited [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Table - **Production**: From 2023Q1 to 2025Q4, the total production shows an overall upward trend, with fluctuations in some quarters. OPEC production, NGL production, non - OPEC production, OECD production, and non - OECD production also have their own trends and changes [5]. - **Demand**: The total demand also fluctuates within a certain range from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4. OECD demand and non - OECD demand have their own characteristics [5]. - **Call On OPEC**: It shows different values in each quarter from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4, reflecting the demand for OPEC oil [5]. - **Surplus**: The surplus or deficit situation varies in different quarters, with positive and negative values indicating surplus and deficit respectively [5]. 3.3 Sanctions on Iran - As of now, the US has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Iran. The latest one on March 20 targeted buyers of Iranian goods, sanctioning Shandong Luqing Petrochemical, Huizhou Dayawan Huaying Petrochemical Terminal, 8 oil tankers, and 19 entities [7][9]. - Iran's seaborne exports have not decreased significantly. Exports to China have decreased sharply, and some goods have been transferred to floating storage. If the US wants to further reduce Iran's exports, it needs to further escalate sanctions [9]. 3.4 Sanctions on Venezuela - US President Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela and impose new tariffs on Venezuela itself. The US has extended Chevron's operating license for its joint - venture oil company in Venezuela until May 27, 2025 [13]. - Currently, Venezuela's production is about 1 million barrels per day. If tariffs are further increased, production may further decrease, and it may exacerbate the shortage of heavy - oil in the US. However, the short - term impact on the market may be limited [13]. 3.5 OPEC + Compensation Production Cut - On March 20, OPEC + announced the latest compensation plan schedule, which is the first update this year. The future compensation production cut of these countries is about 250,000 barrels per day [15]. - The largest compensation - production - cut countries are Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Considering the easing of US - Russia relations, the actual compensation production cut may be less than expected [15]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - The Riyadh negotiation between the US and Ukraine has ended, mainly discussing whether the Russian president agrees to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative. After Trump's call with Putin, a cease - fire agreement on air infrastructure was reached, but the implementation remains to be seen [19]. - In the Middle East, the US continues to air - strike the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Trump has warned Iran not to support the Houthi rebels. Israel also continues to harass the Gaza area. Currently, there are no major geopolitical variables, but there will be some marginal disturbances [19]. 3.7 Fundamentals - In terms of fundamentals, the seasonal recovery of US refinery start - up continues. The latest refinery start - up rate has reached 86.9%, rising month - on - month. Commercial crude oil inventories continue to accumulate, and the Cushing crude oil inventory has significantly decreased [25]. - In the PADD1 area, the start - up of a major refinery has not recovered, but the overall warming trend of North American refineries continues [25]. 3.8 Spot Market - In the North Sea spot market, the recent discount has gradually improved. The latest CFD and DFL are 1.02 and 0.79 US dollars per barrel respectively, which is in a relatively high - neutral range [26]. 3.9 Spread Situation - As of March 25, the WTI near - term spread is 0.47 US dollars per barrel, and the 1 - 6 spread is 2.4 US dollars per barrel; the Brent near - term spread is 0.63 US dollars per barrel, and the 1 - 6 spread is 2.7 US dollars per barrel; the SC near - term spread is - 2.8 yuan per barrel [33]. 3.10 Positioning Situation - In the week of March 18, WTI long - terms increased by 4,305 lots, short - terms increased by 19,790 lots, and net long - terms decreased by 15,480 lots [49][50]. - In the week of March 18, Brent long - terms increased by 37,100 lots, short - terms decreased by 11,200 lots, and net long - terms increased by 48,310 lots [52][53].