Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3658 yuan/ton, closed at 3573 yuan/ton, with a high of 3659 yuan/ton, a low of 3566 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.16%, and a trading volume of 16.91 million lots. BU2510 opened at 3657 yuan/ton, closed at 3556 yuan/ton, with a high of 3657 yuan/ton, a low of 3547 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%, and a trading volume of 14.03 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast markets rose slightly, while those in the north China, Shandong, south China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell. The east China market remained stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices dropped, which had a significant negative impact on the spot market [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound. The total asphalt production plan of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: Demand is expected to continue to recover, but the extent remains to be seen. In August, precipitation in north China and northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand for some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] Operation Suggestions - The growth of asphalt supply is relatively limited, and demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be seen. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the large planned production volume of Guangzhou Petrochemical, the road and shipping prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical were lowered by 50 yuan/ton over the weekend. Today, it mainly shipped by sea, and there was no road transport resource available for circulation. In addition, the decline in asphalt futures led to the start of transactions of low-price contracts of spot-futures traders in the south China social inventory, driving the spot price in south China to decline slightly [8] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3590 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant decline in international oil prices led to the decline of asphalt futures, which had a negative impact on the spot market from the cost side and market sentiment. Although the trading in the spot market continued to be stable, the quotes of some refineries and traders still decreased, resulting in the decline of the spot price in the Shandong market [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][17][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in domestic fuel prices in China, particularly focusing on the upcoming price adjustment scheduled for August 12, 2025, and the factors influencing these changes, including international oil prices and economic data from the U.S. [1][3][5] Price Adjustment Mechanism - The 16th price adjustment cycle for gasoline and diesel in 2025 is set from July 30 to August 12, with the last adjustment occurring on July 29 [1][3] - Current fuel prices reflect a decrease of 130 yuan per ton for gasoline and 125 yuan per ton for diesel from the previous adjustments [1][3] Oil Price Trends - In the first three working days of the current pricing cycle, oil prices increased by 230 yuan per ton, but the increase slowed to 225 yuan per ton on the third day, translating to a rise of approximately 0.17-0.2 yuan per liter for various fuel types [3] - As of August 4, the average price of crude oil was reported at 70.97 USD per barrel, with a change rate of 3.95%, leading to an estimated increase of 210 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [3] International Market Influences - Recent declines in international oil prices, with WTI dropping from 70 USD to 67.33 USD per barrel, have contributed to a "two consecutive declines" in domestic oil price increases [3][5] - The drop in oil prices is attributed to disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, which raised concerns about energy demand [5] Future Price Predictions - The trajectory of oil prices in the coming week is crucial; if prices continue to decline, the anticipated increase in domestic fuel prices may not materialize [7] - Conversely, if the oil market stabilizes or shows slight increases, the expected rise in domestic fuel prices could be realized [7] Regional Price Overview - The article provides a detailed table of current fuel prices across various provinces in China, indicating the price per liter for different types of gasoline and diesel [7]

Group 1 - The domestic fuel prices in China have remained unchanged for the third time this year, as announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [1] - As of July 28, the reference crude oil change rate was -0.57%, indicating a potential decrease of 25 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, which did not meet the necessary condition of a 50 yuan/ton adjustment [1][2] - The current pricing cycle has resulted in a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and three suspensions" for fuel price adjustments in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The crude oil market lacks core driving factors, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range due to various previous developments, including OPEC+ production increases and trade negotiations [2] - As of July 29, WTI crude oil futures closed at $66.51 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures remained unchanged at $69.09 per barrel [2] Group 3 - There is a significant probability of an increase in fuel prices in the next adjustment cycle, driven by potential supply risks from new U.S. sanctions on Russia and ongoing traditional fuel consumption in the U.S. [4] - Market sentiment is expected to improve due to positive expectations surrounding U.S.-China negotiations, which may support a stronger crude oil price in the short term [4] Group 4 - The next fuel price adjustment window is set to open at 24:00 on August 12, 2025, with an initial estimate indicating a potential increase of 55 yuan/ton based on current international oil price levels [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].

Group 1 - Domestic fuel prices have been reduced for the sixth time this year, with gasoline prices down by 130 yuan/ton and diesel prices down by 125 yuan/ton, translating to a decrease of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.11 yuan for 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [1][3] - The price adjustment will lower consumer travel costs, with an example showing a savings of 5 yuan for a full tank of 92-octane gasoline in a family car and approximately 195 yuan in fuel costs for a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month [1][3] - After the adjustment, retail prices for gasoline are expected to be between 7.4 to 7.5 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will range from 7.0 to 7.2 yuan per liter across most regions [1][3] Group 2 - The current pricing cycle has seen fluctuations in international crude oil prices, with a slight overall upward trend, influenced by high travel demand during the U.S. Independence Day holiday and geopolitical tensions affecting energy transport security [3][4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in oil production by 548,000 barrels per day for August, while also revising down global oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1.3 million barrels and 1.7 million barrels per day, respectively [3][4] - Analysts have differing views on the next round of fuel price adjustments, with some predicting a high likelihood of price stability while others anticipate further price reductions [5][6][7] Group 3 - The next price adjustment window is set to open on July 29, 2025, with current models indicating a potential decrease of around 10 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [7][8] - The market remains uncertain, with factors such as ongoing U.S. sanctions on oil-producing countries and fluctuating geopolitical situations contributing to the volatility in oil prices [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain currently faces an unfavorable demand situation and generally fluctuates with costs. It is expected that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate weakly, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: 0) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 1, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.45 per barrel, up 0.52%; Brent crude oil was $67.11 per barrel, down 0.74%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $570.75 per ton, down 0.35%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $754 per ton, up 0.47%. The spot price of p-xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $861 per ton, down 1.51% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,800 yuan per ton, up 0.04%; the settlement price was 4,804 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,972 yuan per ton, down 1.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,990 yuan per ton, down 1.19%; the external price index was $658 per ton (as of June 30), up 0.77% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,794 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 6,798 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The domestic spot price of p-xylene was 6,947 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PR Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,932 yuan per ton, down 0.07%; the settlement price was 5,932 yuan per ton, down 0.40%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 6,070 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [1] - **Downstream Fiber Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester POY was 7,325 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,150 yuan per ton, down 1.38%; the price index of polyester short fibers was 6,765 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; the price index of bottle-grade chips was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Spread Information - On July 1, 2025, the PXN spread was $290.25 per ton, down 3.71%; the PX - MX spread was $107 per ton, down 13.48%. The near - far month spread of PTA was 164 yuan per ton, a decrease of 28 yuan; the basis was 190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 62 yuan. The basis of PX was 153 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan. The basis of PR in the East China market was 98 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan; in the South China market, it was 138 yuan per ton, a decrease of 16 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - On July 1, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.98%, unchanged. The load rate of PTA factories was 76.84%, down 0.50%; the load rate of polyester factories was 88.52%, down 0.77%; the load rate of bottle chip factories was 76.08%, a decrease of 4.12 percentage points; the load rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.95%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales Rates - On July 1, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 33%, up 2 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 51%, up 11 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 43%, a decrease of 27 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting on August 1 [2] Important News - The international crude oil market lacks news guidance, and the crude oil market maintains a sideways shock. Recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the risk premium has been fully reversed. The PX price has fallen back to the level before the increase. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PTA will still commission new devices in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether the profitability of PX can continue to improve depends on the emergence of more unexpected factors [2] - At the beginning of the month, downstream polyester factories mainly consumed long - term contract PTA, with a low intention to purchase PTA spot, causing the PTA spot basis to weaken. Some polyester bottle chip factories implemented production cuts, which was negative for the PTA market. Although the absolute value of PTA inventory is decreasing, the relative value is at a five - year high, and the situation of near - term strength and long - term weakness is difficult to change [2] - Most polyester products are theoretically operating at a loss, but the number of officially announced polyester device maintenance plans is limited. The rigid demand in June was relatively stable, and the polyester operating rate will fluctuate in July. As long as there is no significant production cut in polyester, PTA still has some support. If the production cut in the polyester industry expands in the future, PTA will be relatively weaker [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5,980 - 6,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of raw material PTA and bottle chip futures first declined and then rebounded. Most supply - side quotes for bottle chips were lowered. Recently, the operating rate on the supply side of bottle chips has mainly decreased, and market liquidity may tighten. Downstream terminal demand is cautiously waiting and watching, with general purchasing sentiment [2] Trading Strategies - PTA is in a weak consolidation state. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,800 yuan per ton (-0.50%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.18 million lots. The positive impact of PX maintenance news is limited, and the price has returned to consolidation. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,794 yuan per ton (-0.47%), with an intraday trading volume of 280,900 lots. PR follows the cost trend, and the 2509 contract closed at 5,932 yuan per ton (-0.40%), with an intraday trading volume of 57,000 lots [2]

Core Insights - The benzene and styrene industry is expected to face a specific landscape in the second half of 2025, with a loose supply of benzene and several new production lines coming online [1] - Domestic maintenance peaks have passed, and local supply remains stable, while imports are projected to remain high at 45-50 [1] - Downstream demand for caprolactam and aniline is struggling to rebound, leading to limited growth in non-styrene downstream demand [1] Benzene Market Analysis - The benzene market is characterized by a loose supply situation, with domestic production and imports expected to meet demand [1] - Inventory levels are anticipated to increase slightly, with a phase of inventory destocking expected [1] - The overall valuation of benzene is likely to remain under pressure due to high imports and weak downstream demand [1] Styrene Market Analysis - The styrene market is facing limited positive fundamentals, with weakening demand support from the home appliance sector in the second half of the year [1] - The profitability of the styrene industry is expected to decline, leading to potential reductions in production capacity [1] - Styrene's demand is increasingly reliant on benzene, enhancing its bargaining power within the industry chain [1] Price Dynamics - The price spread between styrene and benzene may experience a slight decline in the second half of the year but is expected to remain at a medium to high level [1] - The high inventory levels in the styrene market may lead to both styrene and benzene accumulating inventory [1] Oil Price Impact - Uncertainty in the market is largely influenced by crude oil prices, with a downward trend expected in the long term [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production increases falling short of expectations have led to rising oil prices, which could shift market dynamics [1] - If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may trigger a replenishment of inventory, affecting the price spread between styrene and benzene [1] Strategic Recommendations - Assuming a high probability of declining crude oil prices, the strategy suggests shorting styrene and taking advantage of the styrene-benzene price spread during dips [1]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA spot prices have been consistently stronger than futures since June, leading to heightened attention from industry chain enterprises, with the PTA basis average value rising by 40% year-on-year as of June 26 [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strengthening of the PTA basis is primarily due to a tight supply-demand structure, with polyester plant operating rates maintaining at 90%, the second-highest level of the year, indicating strong downstream demand [1] - In June, approximately 200,000 tons of PTA were de-stocked, continuing the de-stocking trend from the second quarter, while the main suppliers have slowed down their shipment pace, creating a seller's market [1] - The current PTA social inventory is at a neutral to low level, with tight circulating inventory further supporting the strong PTA basis [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Potential Risks - Despite the current strength of the PTA basis, there are differing opinions on its sustainability, with expectations of potential production cuts in the polyester sector due to profit losses and inventory buildup [2] - Polyester production is expected to be 6.6 million tons in July, with PTA consumption potentially decreasing by 70,000 tons, and further reductions are anticipated in August during the demand off-season [2] - Key variables to monitor include geopolitical changes and oil price fluctuations, as well as the execution of production cuts in the polyester industry and the commissioning progress of new PTA facilities [2] Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Projections - The elasticity of the PTA cost side is also noteworthy, with a near-term strong performance expected due to low inventory supporting the basis and industry chain profits [3] - However, in the long term, the commissioning of new PTA facilities and reduced maintenance plans in the second half of the year, combined with the seasonal demand downturn, may limit the upward price potential of PTA [3] - The supply-demand structure of PX is currently better than that of PTA, and any unexpected maintenance of PX facilities could impact PTA prices positively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment is set for July 1, 2025, with expectations of a price increase due to recent fluctuations in international oil prices [1] Oil Market Trends - In June, international oil prices rose significantly, reaching a peak of $78.85 per barrel for Brent crude due to escalating geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [3] - Following a brief spike, international oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping to $67.17 per barrel, marking a decline of over 16% in just three working days [3] Domestic Fuel Price Changes - Domestic fuel prices saw two increases in June, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 325 yuan and 315 yuan per ton, respectively [3] - As of June 26, 2025, the reference crude oil price indicates a potential increase in domestic fuel prices by 0.28 to 0.32 yuan per liter, with a current increase of 345 yuan per ton [3][4] - The maximum increase in fuel prices during the current adjustment cycle has decreased by 265 yuan per ton compared to earlier projections [4] Future Price Outlook - The cautious market sentiment suggests that while the price increase is expected, it may be limited to around 250 yuan per ton, with a likelihood of small upward adjustments rather than significant declines [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/24 | 2025/6/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 518. 6 | 508. 6 | -10.00 | 成交情况: | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1007. 3 | 1094. 0 | 86. 67 | PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,市场预估原油续 跌,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少,现货基差仍然较强 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2673 | 1. 2960 | 0. 0287 | | | | CFR中国PX | 859 | 849 | -10 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 217 | 263 | 46 | | | | PTA主力 ...