Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Huazhi Wine Industry has significantly declined in Q1 2025, with revenue dropping by 31% year-on-year to 2.852 billion yuan and net profit decreasing by approximately 34% to about 85.39 million yuan, attributed to industry adjustments and cautious inventory management [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Huazhi Wine Industry reported revenue of 2.852 billion yuan, a 31% decrease compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 85.39 million yuan, down about 34% year-on-year [1] - For the entire year of 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.49% to approximately 9.464 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 81% to about 44.45 million yuan [1] E-commerce Growth - E-commerce emerged as the only growth channel for Huazhi Wine Industry, with revenue from this segment reaching 2.092 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 72.87%, accounting for 22.11% of total revenue [2] - Wu Qirong, responsible for e-commerce in both Huazhi Wine Industry and the Hong Kong-listed Zhenjiu Lidu, has focused on digital marketing and online sales [2][3] Management Changes - Wu Qirong, son of the founder, joined the board as a non-independent director, alongside a new general manager, Yang Wuyong, who replaced the former general manager, Li Wei [1][4] - The company has undergone organizational restructuring, dividing the national market into 16 battle zones and establishing various support centers to enhance operational efficiency [5] Cost Management and Strategy - Huazhi Wine Industry has implemented cost-cutting measures, including a 21.81% reduction in sales expenses due to decreased promotional spending and a reduction in staff [6] - The company aims to recruit operational and service-oriented talent to shift its marketing model from traditional sales to an operations-driven approach [6] - The management has initiated a reform strategy focusing on inventory reduction, sales promotion, price stabilization, structural adjustment, team strengthening, and model optimization [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese vaccine industry is facing unprecedented challenges in 2024, with significant declines in market value and vaccine issuance, leading to a search for recovery strategies amidst a harsh environment [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total market value of 11 A-share vaccine companies is less than the peak value of Zhifei Biological three years ago [1] - The issuance of HPV vaccines has plummeted by over 60%, while flu and rabies vaccines are embroiled in price wars [1] - The strategy of "exchanging price for volume" has failed, leading to high inventory pressures and cash flow issues for companies [1] Group 2: Structural Challenges - The industry faces a dual challenge of oversupply in low-end markets and a lack of high-end products, with over 10 companies competing in the rabies and flu vaccine markets [2] - High-end vaccines like shingles and multi-valent vaccines are still dominated by foreign companies such as GSK [2] - Companies are caught in a dilemma of high R&D costs, long return cycles, and rapid market changes [2] Group 3: Strategies for Survival - Companies are increasing investment in multi-valent vaccines, with Watson Bio and Kangtai Bio leading the charge [3] - Zhifei Biological is building a product matrix to reduce dependency on single products, while Kangtai Bio is developing 13 pipeline products [3] - Collaborations for international market access, such as Kanghua Bio's partnership with HilleVax, are emerging as a survival strategy for smaller firms [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The current dark period for the vaccine industry may serve as a starting point for value reassessment [4] - Companies that possess strong technology, diverse product portfolios, and global market access are likely to survive the supply-side cleansing [4] - The potential for Chinese vaccine companies to develop world-class products will determine the industry's future [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant fluctuations in the A-share market this week, the stock prices of liquor companies remained stable, with beer stocks showing stronger rebound momentum compared to liquor stocks [1] Industry Summary - During the Spring Sugar Conference, feedback from liquor companies and distributors indicated an optimistic expectation for the liquor industry to emerge from its bottom this year, with nearly two-thirds of liquor companies experiencing stock price rebounds [1][2] - The three major yellow wine companies, Kuaijishan, Jinfeng Wine Industry, and Guyue Longshan, saw significant stock price increases of 15.42%, 5.31%, and 4.01% respectively, ranking among the top five in the brewing industry for weekly gains [1][2] - The beer sector also performed well, with Yanjing Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Huichuan Beer all seeing weekly gains exceeding 3%, indicating a strong start in April [1][2] - However, the liquor sector's performance was relatively weak, with only Shanxi Fenjiu showing an increase among first-tier liquor brands, while Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai experienced stock price declines [1] Company Summary - Water井坊's stock performance was weak this week, despite a projected net profit growth of approximately 6% for 2024, indicating potential development concerns due to its mid-range strategy [3][4] - The low market scale of the mid-range liquor segment, estimated at 147.5 billion yuan in 2023, has negatively impacted Water井坊's gross margin performance, which decreased to 82.94% in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to previous years [4] - Water井坊 has announced a strategic shift by launching a high-end product line "Diyifang" during the Spring Sugar Conference, aiming to enhance brand positioning and market operations [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural chemicals and veterinary drugs industry [1]. Core Insights - The agricultural chemicals industry is nearing the end of a "de-inventory" phase, with signs of order volume recovery observed in Q4 2024. The company plans to maintain its "major client strategy" while expanding its customer base and exploring new product directions [18]. - The pharmaceutical business is progressing as planned, with stable development expected. The company is focusing on deepening relationships with existing major clients and enhancing R&D capabilities [19]. - The renewable energy business is advancing, with plans to enter the market with products like electrolytes. The company aims for revenue breakthroughs in 2025 while optimizing technology and operational efficiency to remain competitive [20]. - The establishment of operations in the UK and Malaysia is intended to provide a stable supply chain and enhance service quality for clients, countering trends of industry chain relocation [20]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on the company's business is limited, as the share of products delivered to U.S. ports is small [20]. - The rise of Indian CDMO companies is acknowledged, but the company believes that its competitive edge in proprietary drugs remains intact due to concerns over supply chain integrity and IP protection in India [21]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Research Information - The research focused on the company "Lianhua Technology" within the agricultural chemicals and veterinary drugs industry, conducted on March 12, 2025, with participation from various financial institutions [13]. 2. Detailed Research Institutions - The research involved institutions such as Kaiyuan Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Haitong Asset Management, and Industrial Bank [14]. 3. Research Institution Proportions - The report does not provide specific data on the proportions of research institutions involved [16]. 4. Main Content Information - The company is actively managing its inventory levels in the agricultural sector and is optimistic about future order volumes. It is also expanding its pharmaceutical and renewable energy businesses while maintaining a focus on major clients and operational efficiency [18][19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [5]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is showing multiple positive signals, indicating that it has passed the "worst moment" with policies accelerating to stabilize the market. Concerns regarding falling housing prices, credit risks, and high inventory levels are being addressed [1][14]. - There is an expectation for structural stabilization in housing prices in 2025, with improvements in inventory issues due to "de-inventory" policies [1][14]. - The report highlights a recovery in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, particularly in key cities, with significant year-on-year increases in sales areas [12][25]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%, while the real estate development sector rose by 2.22%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.29%, and the China Inner Housing Stock Index increased by 8.20% [2]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on key urban markets where transaction volumes and prices are expected to recover. Companies with strong cash flow and performance in these regions are likely to benefit from market stabilization. Key recommendations include: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) - Buy - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) - Buy - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) - Buy - China Merchants Shekou (001979 CH) - Buy - New Town Holdings (601155 CH) - Overweight [3][43]. Sales and Inventory Trends - From February 1 to 28, new home sales in 44 cities increased by 35% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing an 80% increase. The cumulative year-on-year increase for new home sales in these cities is 5% [16]. - Second-hand home sales in 22 cities rose by 102% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 131% increase [25]. - Inventory levels in 21 cities showed a rolling four-week decline of 0% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [35]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2025 will see a steady increase in transaction volumes in first-tier and some second-tier cities, with a stabilization in housing prices. The land market is also expected to regain some heat, with increased transaction values and premium rates [13][14]. - The report emphasizes that the concerns regarding the risk of major real estate companies are gradually alleviating, contributing to a recovery in industry confidence [14].

证 券 研 究 报 告 | 行 业 定 期 报 告 2 0 2 4 年 1 2 月 9 日 签 约 客 户 可 长 按 扫 码 阅 读 报 告 近期酒企召开经销商大会等，对明年增长定调，茅台、汾酒、今世缘等管理 层纷纷表态。各家酒企对明年目标更加理性务实，进入供给侧主动收缩去包袱的阶 段，市场将更关注实际动销，股价或先于报表出现拐点。 食品板块提前完成去库存，四季度有望继续环比改善，调味品龙头低基数下 增长加速，液态奶降幅收窄，零食公司备战春节旺季。中期来看，乳制品、饮料、 榨菜等细分龙头率先走出调整，未来 1-2 年有望盈利上修。 最新观点 核心公司跟踪：汾酒 25 年巩固期稳定为主，中炬无偿受让厨邦少数股权 山西汾酒： 汾酒 2024 年度经销商大会总结了在汾酒复兴纲领实施的第一阶段的高质量发展成效。此外，青 26 新品上市，公司还提出了四轮驱动。 25 年巩固期稳定为主，预计增长目标有望回归合理。 中炬高新： 阳西美味鲜无偿受让朗天慧德持有的厨邦公司 20% 股权，本次股权转让完成后，厨邦公司成为中炬 的全资孙公司，厨邦公司 20% 股权对应的平均少数股东损益对公司净利润的平均贡献率为 6.31% 。 ...