智通财经APP获悉，中指研究院表示，12月是房企业绩冲刺节点，预计重点城市优质项目入市将有所增加， 市场成交量有望保持一定规模。展望明年，根据中指测算，中性情形下，预计2026年全国新建商品房销售面 积同比下降6.2%，降幅较今年有所收窄，市场分化态势延续，"好城市+好房子"仍具备结构性机会。在控增 量、去库存政策导向下，预计2026年新开工面积下降8.6%，降幅较过去几年明显收窄。供给端缩量有助于市 场库存下降，推动供求关系改善。 01.需求：1-11月全国新建商品房销售面积7.9亿平米，同比下降7.8% 销售面积：根据国家统计局数据，1-11月，全国新建商品房销售面积7.87亿平方米，同比下降7.8%；住宅销 售面积6.58亿平米，同比下降8.1%。 销售额：1-11月，新建商品房销售额7.51万亿元，同比下降11.1%；其中住宅销售额6.60万亿元，同比下降 11.2%。 当前房地产市场已逐步进入以存量为主导阶段，二手房为市场成交的主力。在核心城市，新增供应多通过打 造"好房子"产品来实现品质升级，改善性需求已成为市场重要支撑。二手房主要满足刚需群体，今年以来， 北京、上海300万以下低总价二手房成交同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new housing price index shows a positive trend in November, with an increase in the number of cities experiencing price rises, which is expected to improve market expectations further [2][5][7]. Summary by Sections New Housing Prices - In November, the number of cities with rising new housing prices increased among 70 major cities, while the decline in second and third-tier cities narrowed [1][3]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.4% in new housing prices, with Shanghai increasing by 0.1% and Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreasing by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.9% respectively [3]. - Second and third-tier cities experienced month-on-month declines of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, with a narrowing of the decline by 0.1 percentage points [3]. Second-hand Housing Prices - In November, first-tier cities' second-hand housing prices fell by 1.1%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreasing by 1.3%, 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.0% respectively [3][4]. - Second-tier cities' second-hand housing prices remained unchanged with a decline of 0.6%, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 0.6% with a narrowing of the decline by 0.1 percentage points [3][4]. Year-on-Year Changes - Year-on-year, first-tier cities' new housing prices fell by 1.2%, with Shanghai increasing by 5.1% and other cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreasing by 2.1%, 4.3%, and 3.7% respectively [3][4]. - Second and third-tier cities' new housing prices fell by 2.2% and 3.5%, with declines widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [3][4]. Market Outlook - The increase in the number of cities with rising new housing prices indicates a more solid foundation for price stabilization and a clearer trend of recovery [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the positive performance in November is attributed to the release of year-end housing demand and improved buyer expectations, particularly due to significant discounts on new homes [6][7]. - Looking ahead to 2026, there is an emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at controlling inventory and addressing the current high levels of new housing stock and second-hand listings [7].

经历了2024年的低速增长后，PVC行业在2025年再度迎来投产高峰。截至目前，年内已新增产能220万 吨，增速接近8%，行业有效总产能也随之突破2900万吨。预计年底前，浙江嘉化30万吨乙烯法产能有 望投产。展望2026年，预计国内仅有嘉化这30万吨产能有望实现量产，并无其他新增计划；国外方面， 预计也仅有阿联酋35万吨产能计划于2026年底投产。综合来看，全球PVC产能扩张进程已步入尾声。 从实际产量看，2025年1—11月，国内PVC累计产量达2232万吨，同比增长4.35%。其中，电石法产量累 计同比增长1.95%，乙烯法产量则大幅增长11.48%。由于年内新增产能主要集中于乙烯法装置，因此供 应端增量压力也主要来自乙烯法装置。尽管PVC单产品亏损有所扩大，但在氯碱板块整体尚有利润的情 况下，2025年以来，PVC行业平均开工率维持在中性偏高水平，且整体高于去年同期。 PVC需求主要集中在房地产与基建领域，其中与房地产的关联尤为紧密。今年1—10月，全国房地产开 发投资完成额同比下降14.7%；房屋施工面积同比下降9.4%，新开工面积下降19.8%，竣工面积下降 16.9%；商品房销售面积同比下降6. ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, with the central government updating its stance to "focus on stabilizing the real estate market" during the recent economic work meeting, marking a shift from previous passive responses to the industry's downturn [5][16][19] - The report indicates a significant decline in transaction volumes, with new home sales in 50 cities down by 10.1% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales also saw a decline of 1.2% month-on-month and 31.7% year-on-year [5][11][20] - The new housing supply has decreased, with a 7.4% drop in new housing area launched, reflecting weak market demand and a declining trend in market prices [5][11][20] - Land supply has increased for five consecutive weeks, with a total land transfer revenue of 112.83 billion yuan, indicating a 28.1% rise in supply area but stable transaction volumes [5][11][20] - The report notes a significant drop in the performance of the real estate sector, with a 2.6% decline in the SW real estate index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.5 percentage points [5][11][20] Policy Insights - The central government has reiterated its commitment to "risk prevention" as a core principle, with a focus on controlling inventory and optimizing supply, while local governments are continuing to implement existing policies related to housing funds and purchase subsidies [5][20] - The report highlights various local policy initiatives aimed at stabilizing the market, including subsidies for first-time homebuyers and measures to support the purchase of new homes [20][21] Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of key companies in the real estate sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" based on their financial metrics and market positioning [6] - The report includes a valuation table for major real estate companies, indicating their latest stock prices, reasonable values, and key financial ratios such as EPS and PE [6] C-REITs Insights - The C-REITs sector has shown a slight decline, with the comprehensive yield index down by 0.12%, while the market remains stable with an average turnover rate of 0.37% [5][11][20] - The report notes that certain segments within the C-REITs market, such as data centers and rental housing, have seen positive performance, indicating potential investment opportunities [5][11][20]

新房景气度下行趋缓，二手房景气度底部企稳，成交量均出现小幅回落。政策方面，经济工作会议再提"去库存"，重 点是"因城施策"，一线城市重心是"优供给"，三四线城市侧重于"控增量"、"去库存"。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 新房方面，本周(12.6-12.12)景气度下行趋缓，新房销售面积小幅回落，47 城新房成交量环比-9.8%，同比-44.9%， 主要受季节性因素影响，降幅较上周走阔。 图表1：新房成交面积保持稳定 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1W 2W 3W 4W 5W 6W 7W 8W 9W 10W 11W 12W 13W 14W 15W 16W 17W 18W 19W 20W 21W 22W 23W 24W 25W 26W 27W 28W 29W 30W 31W 32W 33W 34W 35W 36W 37W 38W 39W 40W 41W 42W 43W 44W 45W 46W 47W 48W 49W 50W 51W 52W 47城新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province has initiated a housing "old-for-new" policy to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate housing consumption following the central economic work conference's emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market [1][5]. Summary by Sections Policy Framework - The "Guiding Opinions on Housing 'Old-for-New'" includes six parts and 15 specific measures aimed at supporting the housing exchange process [3]. - Three models for "old-for-new" exchanges are defined: "sell old for new," "collect old for new," and "demolish old for new" [3]. Resource Activation - The policy encourages micro-renovations and functional upgrades of old houses to enhance their market competitiveness [4]. - It supports the conversion of acquired old houses into rental properties and explores operational models like "storage + management" [3]. Cost Reduction Measures - Local governments are encouraged to provide housing purchase subsidies for residents participating in the "old-for-new" program [3]. - Real estate developers and intermediaries are guided to offer discounts within legal frameworks [4]. Financial Support - Financial institutions are prompted to innovate specialized financial products, including group purchase loans for housing rentals and operational property loans [3]. - The policy aims to optimize housing provident fund usage and allows for the reduction of loan counts for eligible "old-for-new" buyers [4]. Transaction Process Optimization - The policy seeks to improve the old house evaluation mechanism and promote diversified assessment methods [4]. - It introduces a "one-stop" service for transactions, allowing buyers to secure new homes before completing the sale of their old homes [4]. Risk Management - A closed supervision mechanism for transaction funds is emphasized to ensure safety and proper usage of funds [4]. Future Directions - The Shandong Provincial Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department plans to guide cities in implementing the "old-for-new" policy based on local conditions [6]. - The central economic work conference has highlighted the need for policies to stabilize the real estate market, including inventory reduction and optimizing supply [6][7].

在中央经济工作会议提出"着力稳定房地产市场"后，山东省率先出手。 12月12日，山东省发布了《关于住房"以旧换新"的指导意见》，其中提出，丰富"换新"模式，拓宽旧房处置途径，多 措并举降低换房成本等。 对于出台新政的原因，山东省住建厅相关负责人表示，旨在通过机制创新、政策支持和服务优化，打通新房与二手房 市场壁垒，缩短交易周期，降低置换成本，激发住房消费活力。 中指研究院预计，各地去库存政策将继续落位，如收购存量商品房、加大购房补贴力度促需求、推动住房"以旧换 新"等，增加改善性住房供给、优化住房供给空间和产品结构等或是优化供给的重要方向。 山东：支持住房"以旧换新" 对于出台新政的原因，山东省住建厅相关负责人表示，推动房地产市场平稳健康发展，是稳住经济大盘的重要举措， 是保障和改善民生的重要任务，更是防范系统风险的重要前提。为进一步巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，激活住房消 费潜力，省住建厅会同有关部门梳理总结各地经验做法，形成《指导意见》，旨在通过机制创新、政策支持和服务优 化，打通新房与二手房市场壁垒，缩短交易周期，降低置换成本，激发住房消费活力。 12月12日，山东省住建厅等10个部门联合发布了《关于住房 ...

在中央经济工作会议提出"着力稳定房地产市场"后，山东省率先出手。 12月12日，山东省发布了《关于住房"以旧换新"的指导意见》，其中提出，丰富"换新"模式，拓宽旧房处置途径，多 措并举降低换房成本等。 一是丰富"换新"模式，提升置换效率。明确提出"卖旧换新""收旧换新""拆旧换新"三种模式。支持房地产经纪机构提 供"帮卖"服务并引入"兜底收购"机制；鼓励各类主体市场化收购二手房；在符合规划和安全要求前提下，探索城镇老 旧住房原拆原建更新路径，新增公共设施不计容积率。 二是拓宽旧房处置途径，促进资源盘活。鼓励对旧房进行"微改造+功能升级"，提升其市场竞争力；支持将收购的旧 房改造用于租赁住房，探索"收储+托管"等运营模式。 三是多措并举降低换房成本。鼓励各市对"以旧换新"居民发放购房补贴；引导房地产开发企业和中介机构在依法依规 前提下提供优惠。 四是强化金融支持，缓解资金压力。引导金融机构创新专项金融产品，推广住房租赁团体购房贷款和经营性物业贷 款；优化住房公积金使用政策，推行二手房"带押过户"，并允许符合条件的"以旧换新"购房者核减一次公积金贷款次 数。 五是优化交易流程与服务，改善群众体验。完善旧房评估机制 ...

在中央经济工作会议提出"着力稳定房地产市场"后，山东省率先出手。 12月12日，山东省发布了《关于住房"以旧换新"的指导意见》，其中提出，丰富"换新"模式，拓宽旧房处置途径，多 措并举降低换房成本等。 对于出台新政的原因，山东省住建厅相关负责人表示，旨在通过机制创新、政策支持和服务优化，打通新房与二手房 市场壁垒，缩短交易周期，降低置换成本，激发住房消费活力。 中指研究院预计，各地去库存政策将继续落位，如收购存量商品房、加大购房补贴力度促需求、推动住房"以旧换 新"等，增加改善性住房供给、优化住房供给空间和产品结构等或是优化供给的重要方向。 各地去库存政策将继续落位 山东：支持住房"以旧换新" 12月12日，山东省住建厅等10个部门联合发布了《关于住房"以旧换新"的指导意见》(简称《指导意见》)。《指导意 见》共包含6部分、15条具体措施，系统构建了支持住房"以旧换新"的政策框架。 一是丰富"换新"模式，提升置换效率。明确提出"卖旧换新""收旧换新""拆旧换新"三种模式。支持房地产经纪机构提 供"帮卖"服务并引入"兜底收购"机制；鼓励各类主体市场化收购二手房；在符合规划和安全要求前提下，探索城镇老 旧住房原拆 ...

在 中央经济工作会议提出"着力稳定房地产市场"后，山东省率先出手。 1 2 月 1 2 日，山东省发布了《关于住房 "以旧换新"的指导意见》，其中提出，丰富"换新"模式，拓宽旧房处置途径，多措并举降低换房成本等。 对于出台新政的原因，山东省住建厅相关负责人表示，旨在通过机制创新、政策支持和服务优化，打通新房与二手房市场壁垒，缩短交易周期，降低置换成本，激 发住房消费活力。 中指研究院预计，各地去库存政策将继续落位，如收购存量商品房、加大购房补贴力度促需求、推动住房"以旧换新"等，增加改善性住房供给、优化住房供给空间 和产品结构等或是优化供给的重要方向。 | E | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 10 3 | 1 | 三是多措并举降低换房成本。 鼓励各市对"以旧换新"居民发放购房补贴；引导房地产开发企业和中介机构在依法依规前提下提供优惠。 四是强化金融支持，缓解资金压力。 引导金融机构创新专项金融产品，推广住房租赁团体购房贷款和经营性物业贷款；优化住房公积金使用政策，推行二手房"带 押过户"，并允许符合条件的"以旧换新"购房者核减一次公积金贷款次数。 五是优化交易流程与服务，改善群 ...