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新能源及有色金属日报:宏观情绪好转,工业硅期货减仓上涨-20250515
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:17
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after continuous decline, due to improved macro - sentiment, previous short - position funds left the market for profit, leading to a reduction in positions and an upward movement in the futures market. Fundamentally, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, with the approaching of the wet season in the southwest, supply is expected to increase, and cost support has weakened. Consumption is weak, and there is a possibility of further production reduction, so the overall fundamentals are weak [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures price fluctuated widely on the day, and the spot market price remained stable with light trading. In May, production continued to decline on both the supply and demand sides. The actual production reduction situation remains to be observed, and the overall consumption has weakened [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded. The main contract 2506 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, a change of 225 yuan/ton (2.72%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 146,525 lots at the close, and on May 15, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,531 lots, a change of 37 lots from the previous day. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Xinjiang, and Sichuan continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon remained stable. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 yuan/ton. After the tariff issue was alleviated, it was beneficial to the export of organic silicon end - products, and organic silicon consumption might improve [2]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises are advised to sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures maintained wide - range fluctuations, opening at 38540 yuan/ton and closing at 38420 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.43% from the previous trading day. The main contract position reached 44,692 lots (52,252 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 236,082 lots. - The spot price of polysilicon was weakly stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), dense material was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), cauliflower material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg (unchanged), N - type material was 37.00 - 42.00 yuan/kg (- 1.00 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg). - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.70 (a month - on - month change of - 1.90%), silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW (a month - on - month change of - 12.08%), weekly polysilicon production was 21,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.46%), and silicon wafer production was 12.35GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.07%). - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - On the supply side, production reduction continued in May, with a slight month - on - month decline of about 0.2 million tons in polysilicon production. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafer enterprises decreased by about 3GW month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 20 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 40 lots (120 tons) [5][7][8]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, due to the short - term joint production reduction of production enterprises and the small number of warehouse receipts, but the weakening of consumption, the market will fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [9].
国债期货:央行“双降”落地 止盈压力下长债回调
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-08 02:02
Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.62%, the 10-year main contract down 0.19%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "24附息国债11" rose by 1.70 basis points to 1.6380%, while the yield on the 3-year government bond "25附息国债05" fell by 1.25 basis points to 1.4750% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 195.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a total bid amount of 195.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 530.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit institutions both fell by over 4 basis points [2] Policy Measures - The central bank announced three categories of ten policies, including a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, which also led to a 10 basis point decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] - Structural policies include increasing the re-lending for technological innovation and technical transformation to 800 billion yuan and establishing a 500 billion yuan re-lending for consumption recovery and elderly care [3] Operational Recommendations - The recent announcement of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts aligns with expectations, suggesting that while bond supply may increase in May, the central bank's measures could stabilize the funding environment [4] - The short-term impact of the interest rate cut is expected to be limited, as long-term bond yields have already adjusted to reflect previous rate cut expectations [4] - The focus for the bond market will remain on funding conditions, fundamentals, and trade negotiations, with a recommendation to consider long positions after corrections [4]
摩根士丹利基金投研手记:债市交易渐向基本面回归,货币政策节奏博弈增强
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-06 07:46
在2024年底债市走出快牛后,2025年一季度利率出现了剧烈的调整;美国关税风波开启后,利率再次快 速震荡向下。随着对关税政策和预期的反复博弈,股和债都在波动中反复寻找相对均衡的点位,但基本 面方面外贸带来的冲击比较现实,国内经济以新兴产业为引领,依赖传统城投和地产等融资相对冗余行 业的模式逐渐淡去。在内外部现在的背景下,央行的货币政策可能更被需要,其进一步宽松措施的必要 性也更强,但其将综合考虑时代背景和宏观经济整体,节奏并不确定。二季度,重要期限收益率或有突 破前低的可能性,但波动仍将持续存在,利率风险仍需要重视。 一季度,在经济尚未明显改善的情况下,央行货币政策定力相对较强,货币市场资金成本相对较高。监 管或有更多综合因素的考虑,包括年初稳定汇率的需求,前期关税预期并未如后来如此强烈,小阳春数 据有亮点,权益市场在科技股带动下情绪较强等。但是,货币政策的支持性立场始终明确,后续更强的 货币投放可能如市场预期,海外冲击带来国内风险较快提升,国内财政政策加码后对更多货币支持的需 要,股市、楼市等风险的累积和集中释放。目前来看,由于美国的强硬态度,关税问题短期无法解决, 相应对冲政策也将越来越重要。 关税政策 ...
“申”度解盘 | 震荡期,等待两方面催化
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-03-24 02:18
以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ,作者杨敏 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微,能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务,为您 的财富保驾护航。 摘要: 短期震荡还将继续,耐心等待流动性和四月决断催化的落地。 ------------------ 盘面走弱体现在三方面: 一、一直是市场情绪指标的北证50周四开始出现了趋势的破位,影响小盘股的情绪。 二、盘面近期连续的负反馈,这周科技多个发布会和财报落地,对于一些财报超预期的公司,相关板块 走势偏弱。 三、低位持续性不强,高位没有增量。 展开说,低位的顺周期品种,反弹一波修复估值后,近期涨不动了,等待宏观数据的催化。高位的科技 股,新催化有,但市场对普通的消息已经反馈递减,从deepseek到阿里财报到manus到近期的腾讯、小 米财报,对板块的拉动边际效应降低。新进的资金也不愿意在没有调整的时候直接进场买科技。 以上三个现象造成了近期市场走势的震荡,破局点在于两方面; 1、流动性 周四凌晨美联储利率决议三个要点:3月不降息以及年内有望两次降息都符合预期,但有一个超预期, 即4月1日开始放缓资产负债表缩减步伐。明显偏鸽派 ...