炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本报记者 韩 昱 近期，A股行情火热。在刚刚过去的一周（8月11日至8月15日），A股呈强势上涨趋势，上证指数一度 站上3700点。 在当前较火热的行情下，7月份非银存款（即非银行业金融机构存款）出现大幅多增，也引发了市场对 于"存款搬家"的关注与讨论。据了解，非银存款一般包括证券、信托、理财、基金等非银机构存放在银 行的存款。 中国人民银行8月13日发布的数据显示，今年前7个月人民币存款增加18.44万亿元。其中，住户存款增 加9.66万亿元，非金融企业存款增加3109亿元，财政性存款增加2.02万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增 加4.69万亿元。 从7月份单月情况看，7月份人民币存款增加5000亿元，其中住户存款减少1.11万亿元，非银存款增加 2.14万亿元。对比来看，去年7月份二者的情况则分别为减少3300亿元、增加7500亿元。以此计算，今 年7月份住户存款与去年同期相比（下同）多减7800亿元，非银存款多增1.39万亿元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明告诉《证券日报》记者，在A股已经形成较强赚钱效应的情况下，诸多存款 流入A股是大 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 3700 points during the week of August 11 to August 15 [1] - In July, there was a significant increase in non-bank deposits, raising concerns about "deposit migration," as non-bank deposits include those from securities, trusts, wealth management, and funds [1] - According to the People's Bank of China, RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, with non-bank financial institution deposits rising by 4.69 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In July alone, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 1.11 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan [1] - The shift in household deposits towards wealth management products and the stock market is attributed to the recent rise in the stock market, leading to a significant increase in non-bank deposits [2] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a year-on-year increase of over 70%, indicating heightened market activity [2]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 16 Aug 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 增量资金入场提振 A 股，Jackson Hole 前全球风险偏好或承压 Fresh Capital Boosts A-shares, While Global Risk Appetite Faces Pressure Ahead of Jackson Hole 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com 港股方面，由于外资尚未回流，阶段性表现弱于 A 股。外资观望主要有两点：一是等待中国经济基本面改善；二是 美股科技巨头业绩亮眼，削弱港股的相对吸引力。后续走势仍取决于中美科技进展及港股互联网龙头能否持续交 出优异业绩。此外，港股对汇率更为敏感，美元指数自 7 月 24 日转入震荡，港股同步进入整理区间。本周港股卖 空成交占比在持续低位后反弹至 21%。南向资金受 A 股流动性带动，本周净流入升至 381 亿元。个股层面，大型科 网股连续三周获资金流入：阿里与小米 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift of funds from low-risk assets like deposits and bonds to high-risk equity assets, driven by the "momentum effect" and "profit-making effect" in the stock market [2][5][6] - There is a notable increase in the number of equity funds being launched, with over 110 equity funds currently in the process of being issued, reflecting strong market interest [2][5] - Bond funds are experiencing substantial redemptions, with over 40 bond funds facing large-scale withdrawals since July, primarily affecting pure bond funds [3][4] Group 2 - The performance of bond funds has been poor, with less than 60% of pure bond funds showing positive returns since July, leading to a decline in investor interest [4] - Several bond funds have reduced their management fees to attract investors, with examples including a reduction from 0.5% to 0.3% for certain funds [4] - The stock market's rebound has resulted in significant net redemptions of money market ETFs, totaling 59.19 billion yuan from August 11 to 13 [4][5] Group 3 - The issuance of equity funds has been robust, with several funds exceeding 20 billion yuan in subscriptions, indicating strong demand [5] - The market sentiment is optimistic, with increased willingness for funds to enter the market, suggesting a potential for further market growth [6] - The focus is shifting towards sectors with upward economic momentum, particularly in technology and dividend-paying stocks [6]

要闻速递 央行：把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量 8月15日，央行发布2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告。报告提出，落实落细适度宽松的货币政 策。根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，保持流动性充裕， 使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的金融环 境。把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理水平。 中国证监会原发行监管部监管四处处长杨郊红被开除党籍 据中央纪委国家监委驻中国证券监督管理委员会纪检监察组、江苏省宿迁市纪委监委消息：日前，经中 央纪委国家监委批准，中央纪委国家监委驻中国证券监督管理委员会纪检监察组与江苏省宿迁市纪委监 委对中国证监会原发行监管部监管四处处长杨郊红严重违纪违法问题进行了纪律审查和监察调查。详情 >>> A股爆发！居民存款"搬家"信号初现 A股牛市氛围渐浓，8月15日，沪指收涨0.83%，盘中再次突破3700点关口，创近4年新高。21世纪经济 报道记者观察到，随着牛市行情升温以及7月金融统计数据出炉，近期多家券商研报关注"存款搬家"议 题。机构普遍认为，7月非银存款同比大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of deposit transfer continues, with a stronger momentum in July than the same period last year. In July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.56 trillion yuan, reaching a four - year high. The growth rate of resident deposits slightly declined, while the growth rate of non - bank deposits significantly rebounded to 15% [2][12]. - The money - making effect in the bond market has declined, and funds are more likely to flow into the "fixed income +" and equity markets. Since 2025, the bond market has entered a "three - low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility. The scale growth rates of bond funds and money market funds have declined, and there has been redemption pressure since July. The growth rate of fixed - income wealth management products has also slowed down. The market risk preference has continuously increased, and the net value of equity funds has maintained high - speed growth. The growth of equity and hybrid wealth management products is not obvious, but their yields have been rising. The transferred deposits have flowed into non - bank institutions but not significantly into wealth management products, indicating that both financial institutions and residents' deposits are flowing into "fixed income +" and equity assets, which are important driving forces for the current bull market in equities [2][16]. - The expectation of a bond bull market has changed, the yield curve has steepened upwards, which may trigger a second - round redemption wave. It is recommended to control the duration, allocate anti - decline medium - and short - duration credit bonds. Asset management institutions with longer durations can seize the opportunity of loose funds during the initial issuance of special treasury bonds to reduce the duration. Stable - liability allocation investors are advised to moderately increase their allocation of 10Y treasury bonds in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and 30Y treasury bonds in the range of 2.0 - 2.05% [3][21][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the market risk preference further increased, the equity market rose sharply, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure, with the yield curve steepening. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 6bp and 9bp respectively. The deposit transfer continued in July, with a stronger intensity than last year. The money - making effect in the bond market declined, and funds flowed into the "fixed income +" and equity markets [11][12][16]. - The expectation of a bond bull market has changed, the yield curve has steepened upwards, which may trigger a second - round redemption wave. The 7 - month social financing and credit data released this week were lower than expected, and domestic demand weakened, but the bond market was insensitive to the positive fundamentals. The overnight capital price increased marginally during the tax period, but the central bank maintained its supportive attitude, and the liquidity environment remained relatively abundant. It is expected that the central bank will continue to support the market during the initial issuance of 10 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds next week [3][21][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds this week, and the funding rate increased. From August 11 to August 15, R001 and DR001 increased by 10bp and 9bp respectively compared to August 8, reaching 1.44% and 1.40%. The issuance rate of 3M certificates of deposit fluctuated upwards and then declined, and the FR007 - 1Y swap rate first increased, then decreased, and then slightly rebounded. By August 15, the transfer discount price of 1M national - share bank acceptance bills was 0.87%, a 10bp decrease compared to August 8 [25][26]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields increased this week. Except for the 3m and 3y tenors, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds increased. Except for the 3y - 1y, 7y - 5y, and 30 - 20y term spreads, other key - term treasury bond term spreads widened. As of August 15, the yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds increased by 6bp and 9bp respectively compared to August 8, reaching 1.75% and 2.05%. The term spread between them widened by 2bp to 30bp, which is at a medium - to - high percentile level in history [34]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the median durations of all - sample bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased, and the divergence slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds rebounded, and the spreads between 50Y - 30Y and 20Y - 30Y treasury bonds widened. The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased to 107.5%, and the exchange leverage ratio remained flat at 122.4%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened [44]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased this week. From August 11 to August 15, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 3791 billion yuan, a decrease of 2461 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - based financial bonds all decreased. Next week, new 10Y treasury bonds and 30Y special treasury bonds will be issued for the first time. The issuance scale of local government bonds will increase, and the planned issuance of policy - based financial bonds is 340 billion yuan. This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit turned negative, and the issuance rate slightly increased to 1.61% [59][62][64]. 3.3 Economic Data - In July, loans showed negative growth, but the growth rate of social finance still had resilience. The growth of social retail sales further slowed down, and the decline in real estate investment widened. Since August, port throughput has returned to strength, and industrial production has marginally recovered. The high - frequency infrastructure and price data this week showed that the mill operating rate rebounded, vegetable prices continued to rise, and asphalt prices continued to fall [69][70][74]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - In July, the core CPI in the United States reached a six - month high, and retail sales achieved stable growth. The Fed's Daly hinted at a possible policy easing. In the overseas bond market, the bond markets in China and Japan declined, while most emerging markets rose. The spread between 10Y US and Chinese treasury bonds widened [81][82][84]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index strengthened, closing at 4202.4 points on August 15, 2025, a 2.4% increase compared to August 8. This week, Shanghai gold slightly strengthened, while the Nanhua Pig Index and Shanghai gold weakened. The performance of major asset classes this week was: CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Crude oil > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Shanghai gold > Pigs [85]. 3.6 Policy Review - On August 15, the People's Bank of China released the "2025 Second - Quarter China Monetary Policy Implementation Report", elaborating on the implementation effects of the moderately loose monetary policy in the first half of the year. On August 12, nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service - Industry Business Entities", and three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy". Also on August 12, the "Sino - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" was released, announcing a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff on each other's goods [88][90][92].

存款搬家趋势能否持续？券商观点分化 招商证券认为，存款向资本市场迁徙是长期趋势，但短期大量资金流入可能是市场情绪推动，需理性看待。该机 构测算，2025年将有约105万亿元定期存款到期，若部分资金流入股市，可能带来显著流动性影响。 数据显示，7月非银存款同比多增1.39万亿元，而居民存款同比多减7800亿元，形成明显的"跷跷板效应"。浙商证 券首席经济学家李超指出，资本市场回暖与利率下行共同驱动居民存款搬家，形成"存款向非银转移"的趋势。华 西证券宏观联席首席分析师肖金川进一步分析，由于5月存款利率下调，叠加7月股市表现强劲，部分资金从居民 存款流向非银机构，成为股市、债市及期货市场的潜在增量资金。 7月A股市场表现亮眼，上证指数上涨3.74%，沪深两市成交额环比增长46.59%，市场活跃度提升带动券商保证金 存款增长，进一步推高非银存款规模。光大证券指出，7月股市"反内卷"行情形成资金虹吸效应，叠加理财资金季 节性扩容，推动非银存款大幅增加。 M1-M2 剪刀差收窄，资金活化程度提升 7月M1（狭义货币）增速同比上升至5.6%，M2（广义货币）增速升至8.8%，M1-M2剪刀差收窄至-3.2%，显示资 金活 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant trend of "deposit migration" where residents are moving their savings from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial products, influenced by the rising stock market and improving investment sentiment [1][2][3]. - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in asset allocation among residents [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment, characterized by a "slow bull" trend in the stock market, is prompting residents to seek higher returns through investments in stocks and other financial instruments [1][2]. Group 2 - The number of new stock accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a year-on-year increase of 70.54%, reflecting growing interest in the stock market among retail investors [5]. - Young investors, particularly those born after 2000, are increasingly participating in the stock market, driven by the perception of abundant investment opportunities as the market rises [6][7]. - The sentiment among new investors is one of excitement and engagement, with many expressing a strong desire to learn and invest actively in various sectors, including technology and pharmaceuticals [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of deposit "migration" from banks to non-bank financial institutions, driven by declining interest rates and the rising performance of the stock market, leading to increased deposits in non-bank financial sectors [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - Recent data shows a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with a rise of 2.14 trillion yuan year-on-year, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan [4]. - The trend of deposit migration is reflected in the behavior of customers, with many transferring large deposits to banks that offer direct connections to securities investment accounts or investing in funds and other financial products instead of renewing deposits [2][4]. - The capital market's recovery and declining interest rates are identified as primary drivers for the shift of household deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [5]. Group 2: Bank Responses to Deposit Outflows - Banks are under pressure to retain deposits, with retail banking staff being urged to promote gold and interest rate coupons to keep personal deposits [7]. - There is a notable increase in the demand for large time deposit transfers, as investors seek to quickly access funds for stock investments [3]. - Banks are attempting to counteract deposit outflows by increasing corporate loans and encouraging businesses to open accounts for payroll and trade fund settlements [10][11]. Group 3: Impact on Securities Firms - Securities firms are experiencing a surge in client acquisition due to the influx of funds from migrating deposits, leading to increased competition among brokers [13]. - The stock market's performance has made it easier for brokers to meet their client acquisition targets, with many clients actively seeking investment opportunities in high-performing funds [14][15]. - However, the competitive landscape has intensified, with some brokers resorting to commission wars to retain high-net-worth clients, leading to potential risks of client loss [13][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares has led to an increase in the "migration" of deposits from banks to investment products, driven by the desire for higher returns in the capital market [2][4][5]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - A significant number of clients are transferring large deposits to banks that offer direct connections to securities investment accounts, or are choosing to invest in funds and other financial products instead of renewing deposits [2][5]. - The People's Bank of China reported a net increase of 500 billion yuan in RMB deposits in July, but household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards non-bank financial institutions [4]. - The decline in household deposits is attributed to the capital market's recovery and falling interest rates, which have widened the yield gap between deposits and investment products [4][5]. Group 2: Bank Strategies and Challenges - Banks are under pressure to retain deposits, with retail staff being urged to promote precious metals and other financial products to keep personal clients' funds [5][8]. - The recent stock market rally has intensified the competition for deposits, leading banks to explore corporate accounts to offset the loss of retail deposits [8][9]. - Some banks are struggling to attract corporate deposits as businesses prefer to invest in the stock market rather than keeping funds in low-yielding bank accounts [8][9]. Group 3: Brokerage Firms' Response - Brokerage firms are experiencing increased client acquisition due to the stock market's performance, but this has also led to heightened competition among brokers [9][10]. - Wealth management departments in brokerages are seeing a surge in business, with many employees meeting or exceeding their performance targets due to the influx of client funds into investment products [10][11]. - The competitive environment has prompted some brokers to engage in aggressive tactics, such as commission price wars, to retain high-net-worth clients [9][13].