前言 美联储又"整活"了，联邦基金利率再降25个基点。 但与市场狂欢形成鲜明对比的是，美联储内部吵翻天，特朗普甚至要求降息"翻倍"。 这看似利好的全球大放水，背后却藏着2008年QE和2013年亚洲危机的历史回响。 编辑:AJY 美联储深夜摊牌 12月10日深夜，华盛顿美联储总部的灯光亮到了凌晨，一场关乎全球钱袋子的博弈正在上演。 当鲍威尔走出新闻发布会现场时，他手中那份25个基点的降息决议，早已通过卫星信号传遍了世界每一 个交易室。 这场被市场称为"鹰派宽松"的政策变动，不仅给美国经济打了一针强心剂，更像一颗投入全球金融池的 深水炸弹，激起的涟漪正朝着中国方向扩散。 更戏剧性的是，这次25个基点的降息，竟是美联储内部37年来最激烈的一次博弈，会议室内，鸽派委员 米兰甚至拍着桌子主张直接降息50个基点，他手里的就业数据报告上，几个关键行业的招聘人数正逐月 下滑。 而鹰派代表施密德则反复强调，通胀数据还没到放松的地步，过早降息会让之前的控通胀努力前功尽 弃，7票反对的声音，让鲍威尔的最终决议显得格外沉重。 最危险的信号出现在短期融资市场，SOFR利率连续三个月冲破政策上限，这意味着银行之间都开始互 相"惜贷"， ...

The Federal Reserve just cutting interest rates again by 25 basis points, but the real headline is that chair Jay Powell signaling the Fed may be done for now. Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Taylor Riggs along with my co-host Lydia who Brian Brenberg, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for the entire hour, Fox Businesses Charlie Gasparino.Great to see you. >> Thanks for having me. >> So, this was the Fed's third straight cut, but it came with division inside the board of governors and the most disscent we've ...

In the Federal Reserve's battle between fighting inflation and limiting unemployment, the latter side carried the day Wednesday and could also have an edge heading into 2026 if labor market weakness becomes more evident through an apparent overcounting of jobs numbers.In the immediate term, worries over the employment situation meant a vote, albeit divided by a 9-3 margin, to lower the central bank's key interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Further down the road, there are indications that policymak ...

•三菱日联：美联储政策分歧扩大，2026年下半年领导层更迭恐加剧前景不确定性 转自：新华财经 •凯投宏观经济学家称，菲律宾经济连续走弱，进一步降息恐难避免。预计菲律宾央行将在未来实施两 次各25个基点的降息，到2026年底将政策利率降至4.00%。 •Investinglive分析师预计，瑞士央行将维持利率在0%不变，尽管通胀低于预期，但美瑞贸易协议缓解了 降息压力。美瑞关税协议自11月14日起生效，美国对瑞士商品关税从39%降至15%，有望支撑瑞士经济 增长前景。瑞士央行或小幅下调2026年通胀预测，但行长施莱格尔料重申负利率门槛极高，并强调通胀 将温和回升。 •鲍尔温财富管理公司指出，美联储连续第三次降息表明其重心已从单纯控通胀转向综合风险管理。美 联储担忧政策滞后、地缘政治及信贷收紧对经济的拖累，正谨慎引导软着陆。预计未来降息举措将更为 循序渐进，且严格以数据为支撑。 •摩根大通银行预计，美联储2026年仅再降息25个基点，远低于市场预期的50个基点。降息幅度将取决 于劳动力市场走势，而该行认为就业市场将趋于稳定或改善。若就业持续稳健，美联储实际降息力度可 能比当前市场定价更为保守。 •凯投宏观：菲律宾 ...

新华社纽约12月10日电 题：美联储内部分歧加剧 进一步降息空间有限 新华社记者刘亚南 美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布降息25个基点。这是美联储自9月以来连 续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降息。 美联储在货币政策声明中说，在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率的幅度和时间点方面，联邦公开市场委员 会将小心评估新数据、前景展望变化以及总体风险状况。 这一表述曾在2024年12月货币政策声明中出现，美联储此后暂停降息，直至今年9月。市场据此认为， 美联储释放了暂时不会再降息的信号。 鲍威尔当天在记者会上说，自2024年9月开启本轮降息周期以来，联邦基金利率已下调175个基点。他 说："联邦基金利率现在位于宽泛的中性利率估测区间，我们现在处于良好位置，可以等待和观察经济 形势如何发展。" 同时，美联储发布的经济预测摘要显示，美联储官员预测的2025年和2026年联邦基金利率中位数维持在 3.4%和3.1%不变。与当前3.5%至3.75%的利率目标区间相比，美联储明年和后年预计将分别再降息25个 基点。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，截至当日下午6时许，市场认为美联 ...

12月美联储利率决议点阵图 作为美联储政策路径的重要指引，本次公布的点阵图呈现出"中值稳定、分布撕裂"的鲜明特征。从整体中值路径来看，与9月会议 的预测完全一致：2025年底联邦基金利率中值为3.6%、2026年底为3.4%、2027年底为3.1%，长期中性利率预期维持在3.0%。但从 19位美联储官员的具体预测点位分布来看，离散度创下2014年以来的最高水平。 2026年利率路径的预测分歧尤为突出：在19位官员中，7人预测全年不降息（其中4人预计维持不变，3人认为应加息一次）；而在 鸽派一端，出现了点阵图历史上从未有过的极端观点——1位官员认为2026年应累计降息6次，总降幅达到150个基点，与鹰派阵营 的观点形成鲜明对立。此外，在2025年终利率的预测中，有6位官员选择了3.75%-4.00%区间，这一预测区间高于本次会议确定的 3.50%-3.75%利率目标区间，相当于明确暗示"12月本不应进行降息"。 瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle表示，"随着利率接近中性水平，每降息一次，就会失去更多参与者的支持，需要数据激励 这些参与者加入多数派以实现降息。" 近期的数据并未带来过多的鸽派倾向， ...

△美联储（资料图） 经济前景不确定性较高 就业下行风险增加 10日，美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动一直以温和 的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水 平。经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 △美国劳工部（资料图） 此前，美联储官员就关税政策对通胀的影响以及是否在12月进一步降息存在分歧，但美国就业市场数据 恶化推高了降息预期。 鲍威尔： 当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。 这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 美国关税政策导致通胀过高 美联储主席鲍威尔在10日的新闻发布会上表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场 的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下 降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导致通胀过高。 △10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就降息决定发 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain adequate reserve levels[7] - The decision to lower rates was supported by signs of a weakening labor market, with private sector employment unexpectedly decreasing by 32,000 in November, the largest drop since March 2023[6] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one rate cut next year, with inflation projected to slow to around 2.4% by year-end[3] - GDP growth forecasts were raised, with the largest increase of 0.5 percentage points for next year, while unemployment rate expectations were slightly lowered by 0.1 percentage points for 2027[3] - Core PCE inflation is expected to remain above 2.3% in the first half of 2026, influenced by high tariffs and other economic factors[10] Group 3: Internal Disagreements - There were notable dissenting votes during the rate decision, with three members opposing the cut, reflecting internal divisions on inflation and employment risks[2] - The dot plot revealed significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate paths, indicating ongoing disagreements within the Fed[9] - The Fed's statement included new language suggesting a higher threshold for future rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach moving forward[9]

美联储将于本周四凌晨公布12月议息会议结果，市场普遍预计本次将迎来25个基点的降息。 根据 CME"美联储观察"数据，降息概率高达88.6%，几乎已被市场视为"板上钉钉"。随着通胀回落、就业降温 信号增强，政策环境正走向宽松。 通胀持续降温 支持政策宽松 受此前美国政府关门影响，9月整体个人消费支出PCE通胀数据延迟一个多月才发布。该数据显示，美国9 月PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，与预期和前值持平；同比上涨2.8%，好于前值的2.7%。9月核心PCE物价 指数环比上涨0.2%，与预期和前值持平；同比上涨2.8%，低于前值的2.9%。数据显示，9月美国个人收 入超预期，但支出低于预期。美国消费者支出停滞不前，美国人在该国政府关门之前就已感到财务吃紧。 总体来看，通胀继续维持在2.8%的温和区间，距离美联储长期目标2%不远，为货币政策宽松铺平道路。 核心PCE被美联储视为衡量长期通胀趋势的关键指标，此次低于预期的数据为降息进一步提供空间。 就业市场出现疲态 结构性分化加深 劳动力市场方面，最新ADP就业数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私人企业平均每周新增就业 4,750人，较此前连续四周负增长有所改善 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's dovish interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion operation in this meeting supported the prices of gold and silver, but the precious metal prices have already fully reflected the expectation of loose monetary policy. The silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and short - cycle hourly technical pattern breakouts may indicate short - term peaks for silver. It is recommended to take profits at an appropriate time, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 940 - 989 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 13232 - 14500 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.12% to 954.76 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.78% to 14166.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4255.20 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 62.20 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13%, and the US dollar index was 98.57 [2] 3.2 Fed Meeting Analysis - **Internal Disagreements**: The hawkish degree of the Fed officials' voting results was lower than market expectations, with only Goolsbee and Schmidt voting against the rate cut. Trump - affiliated Milan still supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut [2] - **Balance - Sheet Expansion**: After stopping QT in early December, the Fed started balance - sheet expansion, limiting the scope to short - term US Treasury bonds and interest - bearing Treasury bonds within 3 years to ease liquidity issues, with the first - month bond - purchasing scale being 40 billion dollars [2] - **Powell's Stance**: Powell's statements on inflation and employment were dovish. He believed that without new tariffs, commodity inflation would peak in the first quarter of next year, and service - sector inflation was declining. Regarding the job market, he thought the labor market slowdown continued and employment figures were overestimated. His view on the subsequent interest - rate policy path was "wait - and - see" [2][3] - **Dot Plot**: The neutral interest rate in 2026 shown in the dot plot was the same as in September, with only one 25 - basis - point rate cut priced in for next year. A more aggressive rate - cut forecast (2.00 - 2.25% next year) was likely from Director Milan. A new dot plot will be released at the March 18th meeting [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the resistance level of 14500 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver. It is recommended to take profits at an appropriate time. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 13232 - 14500 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.4 Data Summary - Gold: For COMEX gold on December 10, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4258.30 dollars/ounce (up 0.51% from the previous day), the trading volume was 180,500 lots (up 3.51%), the position was 450,400 lots (down 1.47%), and the inventory was 1123 tons (up 0.03%). For Shanghai gold, the closing price of the active contract was 956.40 yuan/gram (up 0.51%), the trading volume was 277,600 lots (down 4.89%), the position was 327,500 lots (down 0.52%), and the inventory was 91.30 tons (unchanged) [5] - Silver: For COMEX silver on December 10, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 62.20 dollars/ounce (up 1.70% from the previous day), the trading volume was 155,300 lots (down 1.85%), the position was 155,300 lots (down 1.85%), and the inventory was 14,196 tons (up 0.13%). For Shanghai silver, the closing price of the active contract was 14,373.00 yuan/kilogram (up 5.63%), the trading volume was 2,849,600 lots (up 39.08%), the position was 809,800 lots (up 5.08%), and the inventory was 741.85 tons (up 3.35%) [5] 3.5 Price Difference Analysis - Gold: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was - 11.22 yuan/gram (- 49.41 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 5.40 yuan/gram (- 23.80 dollars/ounce) [51] - Silver: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 355.34 yuan/kilogram (1.57 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 363.80 yuan/kilogram (1.60 dollars/ounce) [51][57]