期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 铝：小幅震荡 氧化铝：价格走弱 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20625 | 20 | -165 | 260 | 820 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20615 | ー | l | l | ー | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2608 | 2 | -31 | 1 ୧ | 239 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 125168 | 5183 | -19441 | -25888 | -97960 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 261363 | -11344 | -66119 | 7766 | 131691 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成 ...

证券研究报告 北京时间 7 月 31 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，两名联储理事投票反对；决议声明调整偏鸽派，但鲍威尔讲 话未能提供 9 月降息的指引，发言偏鹰派。理事 Waller 和理事 Bowman 此 前要求 7 月降息，本次会议投票反对维持利率不变的决议，是 1993 年以来 首次出现两名理事投票反对；此外，决议声明对经济增长的评估从 expand at a solid pace 调整为 moderated，显示联储对增长下行的担忧。但是，鲍威 尔在记者中未能提供对 9 月降息的指引，强调就业市场稳健（solid），通胀 与目标的距离比就业更远。上述表态整体偏鹰导致联储降息预期回落，美元 走强。截至北京时间凌晨 3:50，相较于会前，9 月降息概率下降至 45%， 年内累计降息预期下行 7b 至 37bp；2 年期、10 年期美债收益率分别上行 6bp、2bp 至 3.94%、4.37%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.8；标普 500 下跌 0.8%；黄金下跌 0.9%至 3324 美元/盎司。 基本面方面，鲍威尔强调就业市场较为稳健（solid），但承认 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to weaken [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver are expected to trade within a range or be observed [1][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; short - term short positions are recommended for soda ash's 09 contract [1][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [1][38]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short - sold on rallies; corn and soybean meal are expected to trade within a range; oils are expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [1][41]. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various futures varieties based on global economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Factors such as trade frictions, economic data releases, and policy changes have significant impacts on futures prices. Each variety has its own unique supply - demand situation and influencing factors, resulting in different price trends and investment suggestions [6][9][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With various international trade policies, economic data, and domestic policy factors, the index futures are expected to fluctuate. The dense disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August may lead to minor fluctuations [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market risk appetite has significantly increased, which may still restrict the bond market. Although there was a phased rebound on Wednesday, it is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the Sino - US talks and the Politburo meeting, the over - optimistic expectations have cooled. The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and it is expected to enter a short - term fluctuating pattern [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Although there are expectations of production cuts for the military parade, the high profit of domestic finished products and export situation support the iron ore price. It is expected to adjust and fluctuate at a high level [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has supply disturbances and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand pattern, and there is still an expectation of a fifth price increase [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by trade policies and seasonal factors, the copper price is expected to enter a range - bound trading situation [12]. - **Aluminum**: Due to factors such as changes in bauxite prices, production capacity changes, and weakening downstream demand, the aluminum price is recommended to be observed [14]. - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [18]. - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [19]. - **Silver and Gold**: With the decline in market risk aversion, the precious metal prices are weakly fluctuating, but there is support at the bottom, and range - bound trading is recommended [20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven expectations, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, the demand growth is slowing down, and it is expected to fluctuate. There may be opportunities to go long on dips for the far - month 10 contract [26]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited positive factors, and the macro - environment is relatively warm. It is expected to fluctuate [29]. - **Rubber**: Supported by cost and with the end of the price correction, it is expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [31]. - **Urea**: The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is gradually increasing, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [32]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are stabilizing, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to decline in the short term [35]. - **Soda Ash**: After the positive feedback, the price is over - estimated, and short - term short positions are recommended for the 09 contract [36]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption, and a relatively tight spot market, the price is expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [38]. - **Apples**: With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and strong in a fluctuating market [39]. - **Jujubes**: With good second - and third - crop flower fruit - setting and strong demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [41]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the price increase is limited due to supply and demand factors. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease. Short - selling on rallies is recommended for the 09 contract, and long - buying on dips is recommended for the 12 and 01 contracts [43]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and range - bound trading is recommended. Attention can be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [44]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, it is recommended to be cautious when going long; in the medium and long term, long positions can be established on dips [46]. - **Oils**: Supported by various factors, short - term long positions are recommended for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, and attention can be paid to the spread rebound strategy of soybean oil and palm oil's 09 contracts [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations; Gold trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from recent highs; Silver trend intensity is -1, also suggesting a bearish view [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold:沪金2510昨日收盘价773.78,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价770.68,夜盘跌幅0.32%;黄金T+D昨日收盘价769.48,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价767.00,夜盘跌幅0.32%;Comex黄金2510昨日收盘价3327.90,日涨幅0.08% [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日收盘价9192,日跌幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9090.00,夜盘跌幅1.32%;白银T+D昨日收盘价9166,日涨幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9062,夜盘跌幅1.23%;Comex白银2510昨日收盘价37.175,日跌幅3.15% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金2510合约对2512合约价差昨日成交206,379,较前日减少13,553,持仓214,105,较前日增加1,698;Comex黄金2510昨日成交199,901,较前日增加90,801,持仓322,961,较前日增加256,168 [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日成交689,866,较前日增加97,939,持仓392,370,较前日减少373;Comex白银2510昨日成交71,289,较前日增加29,664,持仓121,325, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓955.37,较前日减少1;沪金库存33,462千克,较前日增加2,199;Comex黄金库存（前日）38,166,532金衡盎司,较前日增加132,494 [2]. - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）15,149.90,较前日减少24;沪银库存1,208,094千克,较前日增加3228;Comex白银库存（前日）502,296,559金衡盎司,较前日增加599,929 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU251 -价差昨日为 -4.30, unchanged from the previous day;买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为4.77,较前日减少0.87;黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差昨日为385.68,较前日减少0.60 [2]. - Silver:白银T+D对AG2510价差昨日为32,较前日增加6;沪银2510合约对2512合约价差昨日为 -8,441,较前日增加16;买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为73.41,较前日减少11.3;白银T+D对伦敦银的价差昨日为4,247,较前日减少799 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - 美元指数昨日为99.94,日涨幅1.05%;美元兑人民币（CNY即期）昨日为7.18,日涨幅0.04%;欧元兑美元昨日为1.15,较前日减少0.01;美元兑日元昨日为148.59,较前日增加0.05;英镑兑美元昨日为1.21, unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slowing economic growth. Powell did not provide guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2][4]. - **China's Policies**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide on the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyzed the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August [7]. - **Trade Policies**: Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, etc. (excluding cathode copper and refined copper), causing a 20% plunge in New York copper prices. The US suspended the minimum exemption for low - value goods. Trump said the US would impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, and announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, with South Korea to provide $350 billion in investment to the US. Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by seven days [7]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than expected. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations, but employers are more cautious about hiring decisions [7]. - **Natural Disaster**: An 8.8 - magnitude earthquake struck the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, triggering a tsunami alert in the Pacific Rim, and China launched a second - level emergency response to marine disasters [5].

Core Viewpoint - Powell indicates that inflation is further from the target compared to the employment market [1] Group 1 - GDP data shows fluctuations on a quarterly basis, which are often revised later [1] - Employment market is considered the best economic data that can be controlled [1]

总体数据表明，你们已经得到一个稳固的就业市场。 鲍威尔：QCEW（就业和工资季度普查）可能表明，私人行业的新增就业接近零。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：广泛指标显示就业市场接近充分就业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, citing slightly elevated inflation and a robust job market, while noting a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year, influenced by fluctuations in net exports [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a solid job market [2]. - Inflation is still slightly above the target level of 2% [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the interest rate is aimed at achieving maximum employment and maintaining long-term inflation at 2% [2]. - The committee will continue to monitor economic data and risks before making further adjustments to the interest rate [2]. - The committee is committed to reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [2]. Group 3: Voting Members - Support for the monetary policy decision came from several key members, including Jerome Powell, John Williams, and others [3]. - Opposing views were expressed by Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who favored a 25 basis point rate cut [3].

进入7月的最后一周，本周市场继续聚焦美股财报季（包括亚马逊、苹果公司、Meta Platforms和微软）的同时，市场迎来美联储利率决议、美国季度GDP和 非农作为重磅压轴行情，同时关注在美国关税最后期限逼近之前，周末已经和欧盟达成框架协议后，是否有更多的国家和美国达成贸易协议，将共同决定市 场进入8月份行情的方向。 周一：美国达拉斯联储商业活动指数 周一市场数据清淡，可聚焦美国7月达拉斯联储商业活动指数，预计继续维持负值。 周二：美国职位空缺、消费者信心指数 周二关注美国6月JOLTs职位空缺，该指数是美国商业，工业和政府的职位空缺月度报告，从职位空缺的变化可以直接观察美国就业需求的变化，所以该数 据公布可以提前带来就业行情。同时段会公布美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数，预计有望延续改善的趋势。 周三聚焦德国第二季度GDP初值，可能会录得温和的增长，但警惕数据是否会意外低于预期则可能陷入萎缩，同时段的欧元区GDP报告将共同影响市场对于 欧元区经济前景的判断，并影响欧元和欧洲股指的表现，前值显示欧元区经济小幅优于预期，促使欧央行在上周暂停降息。 重点聚焦当晚美国美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值，前值意外录得负值 ...

潘森宏观：初请数据下降或掩盖就业市场真实疲态 这并不意味着就业市场正面临急剧恶化，但他指出，持续申领失业金人数居高不下，说明劳动力市场正 在缓慢但持续地走弱。 金十数据7月24日讯，尽管上周美国初请失业金人数继续下降，但潘森宏观的Oliver Allen指出，劳动力 市场的疲软程度可能被这一数据所掩盖。他特别提到，夏季汽车工厂的维护性停产干扰了初请数据的季 节性调整，使得目前的失业申请数据难以准确反映真实情况。"我们不建议根据初请人数降至4月以来最 低这一点，就断言劳动力市场已无隐忧，"艾伦写道。 ...