Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on emotional consumption trends and reassessing cyclical value in the light of the 2026 investment strategy for the light industry sector [1][3]. 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [4]. - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that had balanced production capacity and strong demand performing better. The personal care sector saw excess returns in the first half of the year but faced valuation digestion in the second half due to intensified e-commerce competition [4][5]. - The report suggests a dual focus for stock selection in 2026: on one hand, to pay attention to undervalued cyclical assets for valuation recovery; on the other hand, to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors [4]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report recommends four main lines for stock selection: 1. Gradually focus on undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by seasonal demand and low channel inventory [4]. 2. Maintain a high allocation to export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities, especially those less affected by tariffs [4]. 3. Invest in high-quality domestic personal care brands benefiting from product structure optimization and channel expansion [4]. 4. Explore new consumption trends in categories like AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys, which are expected to see significant growth [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report lists several recommended stocks, including: - Sun Paper Industry (002078.SZ) - Bohui Paper Industry (600966.SZ) - Weigao Medical (300888.SZ) - Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ) - Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238.SH) - Yiyi Co., Ltd. (001206.SZ) - Mengbaihe (603313.SH) - Gujia Home (603816.SH) [4]. 2025 Sector Performance Data - As of December 31, 2025, the SW light industry manufacturing sector had an overall increase of 20.1%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.7 percentage points. The packaging and printing sector performed particularly well with a 35.4% increase [12]. - The report highlights that the packaging sector benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, while the home and entertainment sectors also saw significant gains [12][14]. Export Sector Insights - The report notes that from November 2025, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, leading to a gradual recovery in orders. The fluctuations in tariff policies had previously caused delays in orders from U.S. buyers [76]. - The report indicates that the export sector is expected to see a return to competitive pricing against ASEAN countries following the tariff adjustments, which may accelerate industry consolidation [76][81]. Personal Care Sector Trends - The personal care sector is experiencing product structure upgrades and channel benefits, with brands focusing on high-demand segments such as oral care and women's hygiene products [31][50]. - The report forecasts that the market for women's hygiene products will reach 1079.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% from 2025 to 2029 [50][51]. Baby Care Market Dynamics - The baby care market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2029, with a focus on premiumization and specialized products to counteract declining birth rates [59][66]. - The report highlights that single-child consumption is increasing, which helps mitigate the impact of declining birth rates on the market [69].

Group 1 - The core concept of the article is the rapid growth of China's emotional consumption market, which is shifting consumer focus from basic needs to high-quality, emotionally fulfilling purchases, termed "self-love consumption" [2][4] - The emotional consumption market in China is projected to grow from 16.3 trillion yuan in 2022 to 23.1 trillion yuan in 2024, reaching 27.2 trillion yuan by 2025, and is expected to exceed 45 trillion yuan by 2029 [2] - The pet economy is highlighted as a significant segment of the emotional consumption market, with a projected market size of 300 billion yuan in 2024, expected to surpass 811.4 billion yuan by 2025, where pet food accounts for 52.8% and pet medical services for 28% [5][6] Group 2 - The rise of emotional consumption is evident in various sectors, including fitness and travel, where consumers are increasingly seeking experiences that provide emotional satisfaction rather than just material goods [4][6] - Traditional consumer goods, such as liquor, are undergoing transformation to align with the "self-love economy," focusing on personal taste and emotional value rather than just price and brand [7][8] - The market is shifting from mass consumption to fragmented and diversified demands, necessitating brands to cater to specific niche markets rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [8][9]

Core Insights - The term "love yourself" has gained popularity among young people, leading to a rise in "self-gratification consumption" as a significant growth area in the market [1][10] - The emotional consumption market is expected to grow rapidly, with projections indicating a rise from 16.3 trillion yuan in 2022 to 27.2 trillion yuan in 2025, and surpassing 45 trillion yuan by 2029 [5][14] Market Trends - The emotional consumption market is diversifying, with trends including "self-gratification travel," immersive experiences, and seasonal activities like "ice and snow tourism" becoming popular during holidays [1][12] - Young consumers, particularly those born after 2000, are leading the trend, seeking experiences that fulfill emotional value rather than traditional sightseeing [3][12] Consumer Behavior - Over 90% of young people recognize the importance of "emotional value," and nearly 60% are willing to pay for it [5][14] - The rise of emotional consumption reflects a societal shift towards valuing emotional fulfillment and self-acceptance in the face of modern pressures [3][10] Product and Service Advantages - Chinese products and services are seen to have unique advantages in the emotional consumption sector, driven by creativity and strong manufacturing capabilities [6][19] - The global appeal of Chinese toys, such as the "Labubu," highlights a shift in perception of "Made in China" products, showcasing their ability to meet emotional and spiritual consumption needs [8][17]

| | 1、央行公告称，1月6日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了162亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量162亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量162亿元。Wind数据显示，当日3125亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼2963亿元。 | | | 2、2026年中国人民银行工作会议召开。会议强调，中国人民银行要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，继续实施适度宽松的货 | | | 币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质 效，深化金融改革和更高水平对外开放，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风 | | | 险、稳定社会预期，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五" | | | 良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。 | | | 3、2026年全国外汇管理工作会议在京召开。会议强调，2026年，外汇管理工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，更好统筹 | | | 发展和安全，着力构建"更加便利、更加开放、更加安全、更加智慧"的外汇管理体制机制，推动外汇领域深层次改 | | | 革 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen again, with the Consumer ETF (159928) experiencing a 0.74% pullback after two consecutive days of gains, with a trading volume of 700 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net subscription of over 360 million units, following a previous inflow of over 460 million yuan [1] - As of January 6, the latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) exceeds 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers in the same category [1] Group 2: Consumer Market Trends - The inbound tourism market has shown a strong start to the New Year, with 292,000 foreign visitors benefiting from visa-free policies, marking a 35.8% year-on-year increase [3] - The emotional consumption market in China is rapidly growing, projected to rise from 16.3 trillion yuan in 2022 to 23.1 trillion yuan in 2024, reaching 27.2 trillion yuan by 2025, and surpassing 45 trillion yuan by 2029 [3] - Over 90% of young people recognize "emotional value," with nearly 60% willing to pay for it [3] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The valuation of the Consumer ETF (159928) is attractive, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5, placing it in the 4.08% percentile over the past decade, indicating it is cheaper than 96% of historical periods [3] - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience through economic cycles, with over 68.55% of its top ten constituent stocks being essential consumer goods [10] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The food and beverage industry is entering a mature phase, with growth opportunities arising from new consumer trends and channel transformations [8] - The white liquor sector is expected to perform well during periods of rising CPI, with a clear trend of increasing volume and price [9] - Moutai's market-oriented transformation is underway, focusing on consumer-centric strategies and dynamic product distribution [9][10]

1月7日，恒生科技指数盘中跌超1%，中证港股通消费主题指数截至发稿涨0.02%，成分股中，上美股份 涨超2%，康耐特光学、奥克斯电气、毛戈平、小菜园、康师傅控股等跟涨。 相关ETF方面，港股消费ETF（159735）截至发稿跌0.12%，成交额超1600万元，换手率2.19%，盘中 交投活跃。 消息面上，据报道，2025年，情绪消费强势崛起，超万亿元的市场正在形成，成为消费市场的重要增长 极。从全球市场来看，情绪价值经济已形成潮玩、购物、文旅、宠物、科技、餐饮等众多赛道。伴随赛 道的多元拓展，年轻群体成为情绪消费主力。数据显示，超九成青年认可"情绪价值"，近六成青年愿意 为情绪价值买单。我国情绪消费市场规模快速攀升，从2022年1.63万亿元，升至2024年2.31万亿元， 2025年将达2.72万亿元，2029年将突破4.5万亿元。很多专家认为，在情绪消费领域，中国产品和服务有 独特的优势。 诚通证券在2026年消费板块展望中表示，政策提振，消费信心回升，板块有望企稳，或将迎来业绩修复 的成长空间。细分行业龙头抗压能力和市场竞争力强。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股 ...

资讯早班车-2026-01-07 一、 宏观数据速览 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 12 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 1、中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。完善结构性货币政策工具体系。完善金融 市场监测指标体系，探索开展金融市场宏观审慎管理。强化金融市场监管执 法，持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。加强对银行间债券市场、货币市场、 外汇市场、票据市场、黄金市场及有关衍生品的监管。强化虚拟货币监管， 持续打击相关违法犯罪活动。 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 07 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 1 月 6 日，A 股延续强势，上证指数收涨 1.5%报 4083.67 点，刷新逾 10 年新高，并实现日线 13 连阳，创史上最长连阳纪录。深证成指涨 1.4%，创业板指涨 0.75%；沪深两市成交额 2.81 万亿元。申万行业 方面，有色金属、非银金融、基础化工等领涨；通信行业下跌。概念 板块方面，脑机接口、高压氧舱、钛白粉概念等上涨，F5G 概念等下 跌。港股方面，恒生指数收涨 1.38%报 26710.45 点，恒生科技指数 涨 1.46%；美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 0.99%报 49462.08 点，标 普 500 指数涨 0.62%报 6944.82 点，纳指涨 0.65%报 23547.17 点；欧 洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，亚太主要股指收盘多数上涨。 【重要新闻】 【中国人民银行：2026 年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策】中国 人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the emerging trend of "emotional consumption" among contemporary youth, where spending is increasingly driven by emotional needs and personal fulfillment [3][4] - A significant 90% of surveyed youth reported having spent money for emotional value, with nearly 40% identified as frequent consumers [3] - The peak times for emotional consumption are late-night hours (22:00 onwards) and during work breaks, indicating a shift towards immediate gratification in spending [3] Group 2 - The report indicates a notable increase in the willingness of youth to engage in "happy consumption," with 56.3% actively choosing to spend for emotional value in 2025, a rise of 16.2 percentage points from 2024 [4] - Travel-related spending remains the most popular category at 36.9%, but digital services, gaming, and cultural entertainment are rapidly gaining traction, reflecting a diversification of spiritual needs [4][6] - Youth travel habits have evolved to favor "instant, high-frequency, and off-peak" travel, with high-speed rail becoming the preferred mode of transport for spontaneous weekend getaways [6][8] Group 3 - Social media plays a crucial role in youth identity formation and connection, with many young people actively creating and sharing content to express themselves [10][12] - Over 30% of the "90/95 generation" frequently experience feelings of loneliness, leading to a rise in "scene-based companionship" and self-soothing practices [11][12] - Interest-driven socializing is becoming a prominent trend, with young people gathering around shared passions, such as fitness and hobbies, and utilizing platforms to document and share their experiences [12] Group 4 - The concept of daily life has been redefined, with young people infusing rituals into their meals and creating a sense of home in rented spaces, reflecting a desire for stability amidst mobility [13][15] - The trend of renting is shifting from a temporary solution to a deliberate lifestyle choice, with nearly 50% of the population in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai being renters [15] - Cycling has emerged as a popular mode of transport, enhancing the flexibility and enjoyment of daily commutes, supported by the introduction of urban cycling paths [16]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a record 13 consecutive days of gains, closing at 4083.67 points, the highest in over a decade, with a market turnover of 2.83 trillion yuan [3] - The CES 2026 showcased Nvidia's new AI chip platform, Vera Rubin, which boasts a fivefold increase in AI inference performance and a cost reduction to one-tenth of its predecessor [3] - Strong Brain Technology, a brain-computer interface unicorn, completed a financing round of approximately 2 billion yuan, marking it as the second-largest financing in this field globally, following Neuralink [3] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for flexible monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and enhance financial market supervision [4] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on dual-use items exports to Japanese military users, with legal consequences for violations [4] - The Chinese government reiterated its stance on respecting the development paths chosen by other nations, particularly in the context of Venezuela [5] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.38% and net inflows from southbound funds reaching 2.879 billion HKD [7] - Regulatory bodies are investigating barriers to increasing bank wealth management investments in A-shares, indicating a focus on long-term investment potential [7] - In 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange saw 42 companies go public, raising a total of 81.289 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 48 companies raise 42.954 billion yuan [7] Group 4 - The Chinese civil aviation sector reported a record passenger transport volume of 770 million in 2025, with international travel increasing by 21.6% [12] - The automotive industry is projected to exceed 34 million units in production and sales in 2025, with new energy vehicles becoming the dominant market force [12] - The National Bureau of Statistics plans to introduce over 30 national standards in the data sector in 2026, focusing on advanced data standards [12] Group 5 - Morgan Stanley is seeking SEC approval to launch an ETF linked to Bitcoin and Solana, marking a significant move into the digital asset space by a major U.S. bank [13] - The first commercial rocket company in China is set to change ownership, with a stake being offered for approximately 3.299 billion yuan [14] - Tesla introduced long-term financing options for its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, aiming to boost sales in China [14] Group 6 - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a surge in new account openings, with 2.5967 million new accounts in December 2025, reflecting strong investor interest [8] - The performance of the precious metals sector is improving, with companies in the non-ferrous metals industry reporting positive earnings amid rising prices [8] - The QDII funds are showing signs of premium risks, with over 20 funds issuing warnings about potential overvaluation [8]