Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices, and mixed downstream demand factors [1]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations as the market expects improved concentrate supply and potential recovery in smelting supply, along with mixed downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum may have narrow - range oscillations. The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the high - level shock of alumina operating capacity, cost support, and changes in electrolytic aluminum ingot production and demand [1]. - Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term due to factors like tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia, new tariff policies, and mixed supply - demand situations in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry growing positively, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Copper prices may range - bound fluctuate, and factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output should be monitored [1]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and potential recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output should be watched [1]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum in the night session fell 0.17%. The strengthening of the Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of alumina is oscillating at a high level, with sufficient spot supply, but cost support has emerged, leading to an oscillating situation in the alumina futures market. In the short term, the casting volume of electrolytic aluminum may decrease, demand may weaken, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased month - on - month but remains at a low level. Shanghai aluminum may operate with high - level oscillations, and aluminum alloy futures may have narrow - range oscillations [1]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel in the night session rose 0.86%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia is still tight overall, and local demand for Philippine nickel ore has increased, driving up the price of Philippine nickel ore. New tariff policies in Indonesia may raise local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel salt enterprises have production - cut expectations, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel salt prices. Stainless steel demand is in the traditional off - season, and prices are mainly oscillating. Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market, and nickel prices may oscillate [1]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 80,780 | 65 | 9,952 | 87.61 | 93,250 | 2,000 | | Aluminum | 20,850 | - 30 | 2,606 | - 5.75 | 356,625 | 8,000 | | Zinc | 22,310 | 95 | 2,738 | - 21.99 | 113,425 | - 1,475 | | Nickel | 121,120 | - 1,690 | 15,355 | - 187.48 | 204,102 | 216 | | Lead | 17,145 | - 280 | 2,063 | - 26.47 | 268,150 | - 1,925 | | Tin | 268,270 | 1,040 | 33,805 | - 42.00 | 2,215 | - 5 | [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, dated June 20, 2025 [1] - It analyzes the reasons for the rise of jujube futures and provides technical analysis of various futures including stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and urea [2][7][11] Group 2: Jujube Futures Analysis Investment Rating - Treat the jujube futures market with an oscillating and slightly bullish view [5] Core View - The rise of jujube futures on June 19, 2025, is due to weather speculation and capital promotion, and future trends depend on weather, growth, and consumption [3][5] Key Points - Fundamental factor: High - temperature weather in southern Xinjiang may cause jujube yield reduction, leading to supply concerns and price rebound, despite ring - cutting measures [4] - Market factor: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's policy adjustment (lowering margin ratio to 9% and adjusting daily price limit to 8% from June 20) attracts more capital and stimulates speculation [4] - Inhibiting factor: Seasonal fresh fruits replace jujubes, and it's the off - season for jujube demand. Current inventory is 10,693 tons, down 0.14% week - on - week but up 69.51% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Other Futures Stock Index Futures - Asian stock markets adjusted due to an attack schedule, and the A - share market closed with a large negative line. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [8][9] Gold Futures - After the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, gold adjusted, but the long - term trend is still bullish. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] Iron Ore Futures - Supply is increasing, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are restocking. The market faces over - valuation risks. Observe the lower support level and view it with an oscillating perspective [14][15] Glass Futures - Supply has no major cold - repair situation, factory inventory is high, and downstream demand is weak. Wait for real - estate stimulus or major policies. The market is viewed with an oscillating mindset after a small rebound [17][18] Urea Futures - Domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons with an 87.23% operating rate. Agricultural demand is slow, and prices are weakly adjusting. Be cautious of a strong long - position rebound when reaching the previous support area [21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in coking coal and coke futures prices is primarily driven by market speculation regarding potential tax increases in Mongolia and the need for price correction after significant declines earlier this year [1][2][8]. Group 1: Price Movements - On June 4, coking coal futures rose to 772 CNY/ton, marking a 7.19% increase, while coke futures reached 1374 CNY/ton, with a 5.72% rise [1]. - On June 5, coking coal futures settled at 757 CNY/ton, reflecting a more modest increase of 1.68% [1]. - Coking coal futures have seen a cumulative decline of over 42% since the beginning of the year, dropping from around 1230 CNY/ton to 709 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply remains ample, with domestic production increasing and coal inventories rising significantly [5][6]. - From January to April 2025, China's industrial raw coal output reached 1.58 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with Shanxi province contributing notably [5]. - The overall market is characterized by excess supply, with high coal and coke inventories and a seasonal decline in terminal demand [6][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent price increases are viewed as a reaction to market sentiment and a correction of the basis rather than a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to cautious purchasing behavior from coking enterprises due to production losses [8]. - Future price movements are expected to be limited, with a focus on monitoring the recovery of spot prices and the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts [8][9].

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | 20250603申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 铜： | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：假期LME铜价上涨83美元。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶 | | | | 炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升 | 幅波动 | | | 有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美 国关税进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：假期LME锌价上涨26美元。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据 | | | | 来看， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors have jointly driven the sharp rise in pulp futures prices. The global economic recovery has increased the demand for pulp, while supply has been affected by natural disasters, environmental policies, and other factors. This has significantly impacted related industries, and continuous attention should be paid to market dynamics [3]. - A - share major indices have generally closed higher with increased trading volume. The stock index is stronger than the spot index, but the overall pattern is still volatile, suitable for high - selling and low - buying strategies [6]. - Gold has adjusted due to the suspension of US tariffs by the judiciary and its own oscillatory adjustment. For Shanghai gold, 750 - 755 is an important support level, and buying on dips is advisable [9][10]. - Iron ore faces high - valuation risks due to supply surplus pressure and the approaching seasonal off - season for domestic demand. Technically, it has reached the strong support area at the lower edge of the oscillation range [13]. - The demand for glass continues to await the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it has oscillated lower today, and a bearish outlook is maintained [18]. - The domestic urea daily output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of approximately 87.23%. Agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and the price is expected to continue weak adjustment in the short term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Futures - **Reasons for price increase**: Global economic recovery has led to a surge in demand for packaging paper, increasing pulp demand. On the supply side, natural disasters in major production areas, stricter environmental policies, changes in international trade, rising transportation costs, and energy prices have all contributed to the price increase [3]. - **Impact on related industries**: Paper - making enterprises' costs have increased significantly, squeezing profit margins, especially for small and medium - sized enterprises. The packaging industry also faces rising material costs and may seek alternative materials or negotiate price increases with customers [3]. - **Suggestion**: Continuously monitor market supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and international trends, and avoid chasing up [3]. Stock Index Futures - **Market situation**: A - share major indices have generally closed higher with increased trading volume. The stock index is stronger than the spot index, but the overall pattern is still volatile [6]. - **Strategy**: A high - selling and low - buying strategy is appropriate [6]. Gold - **Market situation**: Gold has adjusted due to the suspension of US tariffs by the judiciary and its own oscillatory adjustment [10]. - **Strategy**: For Shanghai gold, 750 - 755 is an important support level, and buying on dips is advisable [9]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: In May, downstream export reduction and increased shipments have led to large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is approaching the seasonal off - season, increasing high - valuation risks [13]. - **Technical analysis**: It has reached the strong support area at the lower edge of the oscillation range [13]. Glass - **Market situation**: The demand continues to await the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. The current daily melting is at a low level, the spot production and sales have improved slightly, but the factory inventory is still high, and the downstream deep - processing order restocking power is weak [18][19]. - **Technical analysis**: It has oscillated lower today, and a bearish outlook is maintained [18]. Urea - **Supply situation**: The domestic urea daily output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of approximately 87.23% [21]. - **Demand situation**: Agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and downstream players' follow - up is limited, with overall average performance [21]. - **Price trend**: The price is expected to continue weak adjustment in the short term [21].

Group 1 - The main contract for short fiber futures showed a strong fluctuation, reaching a peak of 6528.00 yuan and closing at 6500.00 yuan, with an increase of 1.31% [1] - Supply side: Short fiber production load increased to approximately 96.2%, up by 2.1% month-on-month [1] - Demand side: Operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain stable, with spinning at 80%, weaving at 69%, and dyeing at 77% [1] Group 2 - The short fiber price is expected to follow fluctuations in crude oil prices due to OPEC's decision to maintain production quotas [2] - China's polyester short fiber production was 161,400 tons, a decrease of 550 tons or 3.30% month-on-month, with an average capacity utilization rate of 85.33%, down by 2.91% [2] - Inventory levels: As of May 22, the factory equity inventory for polyester short fiber was 9.38 days, a decrease of 0.07 days, while physical inventory was 18.11 days, down by 0.13 days [2]

2025 年 05 月 22 日 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 5 月 21 日 CBOT 大豆日评：暴雨威胁阿根廷作物，大豆上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 5 月 22 日消息： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 豆粕：阿根廷洪灾担忧、美豆收涨，连粕反弹 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4225 +44（+1.05%） | 4219 +13（+0.31%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2934 +55（+1.91%） | 2939 +31 （+1.07%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1061.75 +7.5（+0.71%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 293.7 +1.3（+0.44%） | n ...

品种 国内前日期货 收盘价 （元/吨） 国内基差 （元/吨） 前日LME3月 期收盘价 (美元/吨） LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） LME库存 （吨） LME库存日 度变化 （吨） 铜 78,590 -30 9,420 23.87 190,750 -1,025 铝 19,945 0 2,383 -5.34 401,525 -2,025 锌 22,725 415 2,617 -27.37 169,850 -475 镍 125,920 -2,730 15,548 -198.42 197,754 84 铅 16,955 -190 1,958 5.95 251,800 -1,625 锡 263,050 -1,130 31,636 15.00 2,790 85 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 国 内 市 场 基 差 L M E 现 货 升 贴 水 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 基差 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 元 ...

| | 20250509申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短期锌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, influenced by factors such as US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - Zinc prices might also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on US tariff talks, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff attitude, domestic monetary policy, alumina prices, and downstream demand [1]. - Nickel prices may operate within a range in the short term due to the combination of tight nickel ore supply, tariff policies, and different demand performances in various sectors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices slightly declined. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with power investment driven by the power grid growing significantly, and home appliance production continuing to increase. The penetration of new energy is expected to strengthen copper demand in the automotive sector, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,160 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,538 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 21.65 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 193,975 tons, and the daily change was - 1,650 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices slightly rose. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is steadily increasing, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the expected increase in production [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,675 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 485 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,633 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.93 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 171,400 tons, and the daily change was - 1,525 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 1.55%. Trump's tariff attitude has been inconsistent, and domestic monetary policy is becoming more relaxed. Alumina prices have declined again, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Currently, some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures to decline further, a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. The operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for aluminum cables, have slightly declined recently, and there is an expectation of a decrease in downstream orders. After the holiday, with the concentrated arrival of aluminum ingots, domestic social inventory may continue to increase [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 19,580 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,427 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 28.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 407,575 tons, and the daily change was - 4,000 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.35%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. Indonesia's new tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and the inventory of nickel salt products is not high, with prices likely to rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly fluctuating and consolidating [1]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 124,240 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,698 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 201.50 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 199,782 tons, and the daily change was - 300 tons [2]. Lead - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 275 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,923 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 256,700 tons, and the daily change was - 4,800 tons [2]. Tin - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,690 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 31,992 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 165.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,755 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2].