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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250715
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:40
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil plates will have wide - range oscillations due to the undiminished sector sentiment [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are slightly boosted by the settlement of steel tender prices [2][10]. - Coke will oscillate with an upward trend [2][13]. - Coking coal will oscillate with an upward trend affected by news disturbances [2][14]. - Steam coal will stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][18]. - Logs will have wide - range oscillations due to the change of the main contract [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12509) closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.33%). The import and domestic ore prices generally increased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil Plate - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of HC2510 closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. China's steel exports in June were 967.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.0 million tons from the previous month. The weekly data on July 10 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hot - rolled coil plate is 0 [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts increased. The spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the tender prices for silicon iron and silicon manganese in July and increased the procurement volume [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: The port prices of coking coal and the CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were provided [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day. The opening, high, low, and closing prices and trading volume and open interest were reported [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: The prices of imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas were provided. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were reported [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts (2509, 2511, 2601) showed different trends. The spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].
软商品日报-20250714
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Neutral, with an expected price fluctuation range of -5% to +5% [1] - Cotton: Neutral, with an expected price fluctuation range of -5% to +5% [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Drought in Guangxi has affected the emergence and early growth of sugarcane, with shorter and fewer plants compared to the same period last year. Sugar beet growth is generally good, but there is a risk of pests and diseases in Inner Mongolia due to recent heavy rainfall. Internationally, attention should be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton-growing regions in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. High temperatures in Xinjiang in July pose a risk of heat damage to cotton. Cotton inventories are decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Attention should be paid to weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] Data Summary External Quotes - US Sugar: The price remained unchanged at $16.56 from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] - US Cotton: The price remained unchanged at $67.42 from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): The price increased from 6050.0 to 6060.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.17% change [3] - Sugar (Kunming): The price increased from 5895.0 to 5905.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.17% change [3] - Cotton Index 328: The price decreased from 3281 to 3280 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.46% change [3] - Cotton (Xinjiang): The price increased from 15150.0 to 15200.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.33% change [3] Spread Overview - All sugar and cotton spreads remained unchanged from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] Import Prices - Cotton CotlookA: The price decreased from 78.6 to 78.45 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.19% change [3] Profit Margins - Sugar Import Profit: The profit remained unchanged at 1655.5 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.00% change [3] Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility was 0.0764, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR509 was 7.55 [3] - SR509P5800: Implied volatility was 0.0765 [3] - CF509C13800: Implied volatility was 0.0925, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF509 was 8.58 [3] - CF509P13800: Implied volatility was 0.0942 [3] Warehouse Receipts - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 22934.0 to 22744.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.83% change [3] - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 9882.0 to 9850.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.32% change [3] Company Information - Name: Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. [2] - Address: 19 - 20th Floor, Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou [2] - Postal Code: 311200 [2] - Company Profile: A large - scale futures company in China with high credibility. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [9]
LPG:需求疲软,弱势震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The LPG market is experiencing weak demand and is in a weak oscillatory state [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: The PG2508 contract closed at 4,156 yesterday with a -1.38% daily increase and 4,175 in the night session with a 0.46% increase. The PG2509 contract closed at 4,070 yesterday with a -0.97% daily increase and 4,089 in the night session with a 0.47% increase. The trading volume of PG2508 was 79,971, an increase of 24,856 from the previous day, and the position was 46,491, a decrease of 4,998. The trading volume of PG2509 was 25,300, an increase of 8,258 from the previous day, and the position was 40,184, an increase of 1,277 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 494 yesterday, compared to 436 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 544 yesterday, compared to 486 the previous day [3]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 60.9%, down from 65.5% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 66.9%, up from 65.1%. The alkylation operating rate was 44.6%, down from 46.2% [3]. Market Trends - **Trend Intensity**: The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Market News - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On July 10, 2025, the expected price of propane for the August Saudi CP was 564 dollars per ton, down 1 dollar per ton from the previous trading day. The expected price of butane was 534 dollars per ton, also down 1 dollar per ton. For the September Saudi CP, the expected price of propane was 562 dollars per ton, down 1 dollar per ton, and the expected price of butane was 532 dollars per ton, down 1 dollar per ton [10]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting as early as 2023 and some ending as late as August 2025 [9].
沥青:小步上移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 02:52
商 品 研 究 沥青:小步上移 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 2025 年 7 月 9 日 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,662 | 1.02% | 3,662 | 0.00% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,620 | 0.64% | 3,659 | 1.08% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 690 | (423) | 1,132 | (377) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 2,968 | (378) | 16,845 | (808) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91740 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 ...
PVC:短期偏强,但上方空间有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 03:21
Report Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [-2 indicates the most bearish, 2 indicates the most bullish] [4] Core View - PVC is short - term bullish but has limited upside potential. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate, and the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit in the later stage [1][2] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 4871, the East China spot price is 4750, the basis is - 121, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 73 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market price has a narrow adjustment, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged. This week, enterprise maintenance has increased, production has slightly decreased, the downstream market is in the off - season, industry inventory remains high, foreign trade exports are mainly for delivery, the futures market is pulled up by the strong fluctuations of sectors such as black, but market transactions remain light [1] Market Condition Analysis - Crude oil prices are still strong, and ethylene - based costs provide support, making PVC short - term bullish [2] - The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term. PVC maintenance volume is lower than the same period in 2023. Chlor - alkali costs are declining, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 has good support, maintaining high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to losses. In addition, there will be more capacity put into production, especially in June - July, with an expected new capacity of 1.1 million tons [2] - The pressure of high inventory persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased. Exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. India's BIS policy for PVC imports may be postponed for 6 months, and the Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low willingness to stock up [2]
LPG:短期宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:49
商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 19 日 LPG:短期宽幅震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2507 | 4,382 | -0.36% | 4,514 | 3.01% | | 期货 | PG2508 | 4,320 | 0.02% | 4,469 | 3.45% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 98,855 | -14358 | 37,734 | -3755 | | | PG2508 | 52,569 | 3085 | 53,341 | 3057 | | 价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对07合约价差 | 348 | | 332 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 | 418 | | 402 | | | 产业链重要 价格数据 | | 本周 | | 上周 | | | | PDH开工率 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250619
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities in the black series are expected to show wide - range fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore will experience range - bound oscillations due to fluctuating expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal will be affected by macro - sentiment or sector - wide sentiment resonance; thermal coal's demand remains to be released; and logs will undergo basis repair [2][4][6][10][14][18][22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 695.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values decreased slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,986 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; for hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,102 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase. Spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and some basis and spread values also changed slightly [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel increased by 3.2% month - on - month, pig iron by 2.6% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 6.4% month - on - month. From January to May, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and trading volumes varied. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased. Some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions, and a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia newly ignited a furnace, while a silicon - iron furnace in Qinghai was shut down [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price of coking coal JM2509 was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; for coke J2509, it was 1375 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton with a 0.70% increase. Some spot prices remained unchanged, and some basis and spread values decreased [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index changes. On June 18, in the top 20 member positions of DCE, the long positions of coking coal JM2509 decreased, and the short positions increased; for coke J2509, both long and short positions increased [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Inner - Market Situation**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading the previous day. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [19]. - **Fundamentals**: There were price quotes for imported thermal coal in southern ports and domestic thermal coal in production areas. On June 18, in the top 20 member positions of ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2507 contract did not change [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions had different degrees of changes, and some basis and spread values changed significantly [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to May, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [24].
镍不锈钢早报:接近支撑位-20250618
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:54
[Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 期货研究报告 商品研究 走势评级: 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号:F3080463 投资咨询证号:Z0018424 联系电话:0571-28132615 邮箱:loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编:311200 接近支撑位 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期: 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息: ummary]【印尼华星镍业年产 4 万吨高冰镍项目取得进展】2025 年 6 月 14 日,分公司承建的华星镍业(印尼)有限公司年产 4 万吨金属高冰项 目在业主、监理共同见证下顺利完成 101 原料堆棚首根钢柱吊装作业,标 志着备料系统装置正式进入主体钢结构施工的全新阶段。项目位于印尼东 南苏拉维西省科拉卡县波马拉镇 IPIP 工业园。分公司承建内容包括:五个 区域:100(备料系统)、200(冶炼区域)、300(辅助工程)、500(冶炼厂给排 水系统)、600(公辅工 ...
短纤:关注成本波动率放大,高位震荡,瓶片:关注成本波动率放大,高位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 05:16
Report Overview - The report focuses on short fiber and bottle chip futures, providing fundamental tracking, spot news, and trend strength analysis [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short fiber and bottle chip futures are expected to experience high - level fluctuations with increased cost volatility [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking Short Fiber - Futures prices: Short fiber 2507 was at 6594, up 4 from the previous day; 2508 was at 6510, up 30; 2509 was at 6442, up 182 [1] - Spread: PF07 - 08 was 84, up 34; PF08 - 09 was - 152, down 152; PF basis was 140, unchanged [1] - Position and volume: The position was 281488, down 4869; the volume was 366006, down 121099 [1] - Spot price and sales: The East China spot price was 6650, up 30; the sales - to - production ratio was 62%, down 72% [1] Bottle Chip - Futures prices: Bottle chip 2507 was at 6068, up 34; 2508 was at 6046, up 40; 2509 was at 5980, up 8 [1] - Spread: PR07 - 08 was 22, down 6; PR08 - 09 was 66, up 32; PR main contract basis was 70, up 22 [1] - Position and volume: The position was 41530, up 1233; the volume was 60988, down 18649 [1] - Spot price: The East China spot price was 6050, up 30; the South China spot price was 6170, down 30 [1] Spot News Short Fiber - Futures were strongly volatile. Factory quotes were stable, with discounts for negotiation. The average sales - to - production ratio was 62%. Downstream yarn prices were stable, with few orders and weak sales [1] Bottle Chip - Polyester raw material futures closed higher. Factory quotes were partially raised by about 50 yuan, and a few were slightly lowered. Market transactions were light, with 6 - 8 month orders mostly traded at 5980 - 6140 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Strength - Short fiber trend strength was - 1; bottle chip trend strength was - 1, indicating the daily - session main contract price fluctuations on the report day [2]
燃料油:夜盘回撤,预计短期强势暂缓,低硫燃料油:短线转弱,外盘现货高低硫价差
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:39
低硫燃料油:短线转弱,外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅收窄 2025 年 6 月 17 日 燃料油:夜盘回撤,预计短期强势暂缓 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2507 | 元/成 | 3,317 | 2. 41% | | 3.280 | 2.79% | | | | FU2508 | 元/吨 | 3.316 | 2. 79% | | 3, 278 | 2. 31% | | | | LU2507 | 元/晚 | 3.925 | 1.19% | | 3,905 | 0.77% | | | | LU2508 | 元/吨 | 3.874 | 0.77% | | 3.854 | 0.76% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日特仓 | 特色变动 | | | | FU2507 | 手 | 103.366 | (55.013) | | 39.159 | (4.350) | | | | FU250 ...