"你乘上电动汽车，按下电钮，在驾驶面板的屏幕上显示出了全市地图。你用手指向要去的地点，再按一下自动驾驶按钮，电动汽车就飞快地向目的地自 动驶去"。 这段看起来很日常的文字，来自35年前的"预言书"——1995年，科教兴国战略刚刚提出，计算机专家倪光南院士受《我们爱科学》杂志邀请，为小读者们 写下《21世纪的一天》。在"大哥大"还是稀罕物的的年代，倪光南写下了有关语音交互、自动驾驶、视频会议、即时零售等21世纪的预言。 《21世纪的一天》全文 当初那些看起来很科幻的想象，今天大部分已经成为现实。 而如今，随着AI技术的发展，新一轮预言浪潮正席卷而来。去年6月，被誉为"硅谷精神之父"的凯文·凯利（KK）在其新书《2024：未来10000天的可能》 中，以25年为尺度勾勒了被AI深度渗透的未来。 近日，新一届CES（国际消费类电子产品展览会）正在拉斯维加斯举办。这是业界公认的"科技风向标"，展会上的科技产品和大佬们的发言，都是对人类 文明下一次重大转折的暗示。距离KK新书发布仅过去半年，CES这场科技盛宴，已为他的诸多预言添上了现实的佐证。 图片来自智元机器人官方微博 这届CES给人印象最深刻的，或许不是某个炫酷的 ...

毫无意外，人工智能主导了CES大会的公告和讨论，英伟达发布了新的AI模型，英伟达、英特尔、 AMD、高通等公司都推出了专注于AI的新芯片。 机器人技术尤其成为焦点，特别是在备受期待的英伟达CEO黄仁勋主题演讲中，他为此次活动特意穿上 了闪亮的皮夹克。物理AI似乎成为所有人讨论的话题，我们的作者Kyt Dotson最近发表的前瞻性特稿为 此奠定了基础。 但英伟达在机器人领域并非独一无二，特别是在类人机器人方面。Mobileye斥资9亿美元收购类人机器 人初创公司Mentee Robotics，知名的波士顿动力与母公司现代汽车合作，将类人机器人引入工厂。机器 人初创公司Lyte AI也筹集了1.07亿美元。同样值得注意的是，Arm在CES上宣布成立新的物理AI部门， 专门针对机器人和智能汽车。 2026年看起来将是AI资金的又一个爆发年。埃隆·马斯克为xAI又筹集了200亿美元，而Anthropic据报道 也在筹集额外的100亿美元。2026年可能也是AI IPO之年，中国的MiniMax本周上市，OpenAI和 Anthropic今年晚些时候可能也会IPO。 量子计算交易和资金也在持续升温。D-WaveQuan ...

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang announced the company's latest advancements in the autonomous driving sector at CES 2026, introducing a comprehensive autonomous driving ecosystem named Alpamayo, which enables vehicles to reason in real-world scenarios [1][5]. Group 1: Alpamayo Ecosystem - Alpamayo includes an open-source large model, a global driving dataset, and a high-fidelity simulation framework, allowing vehicles to possess human-like reasoning capabilities [1][5]. - The first vehicle equipped with NVIDIA's full-stack DRIVE system, the Mercedes-Benz CLA, is set to hit the roads in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - The system can make decisions in complex situations, such as navigating an intersection with a malfunctioning traffic light, without human intervention, and can clearly explain its decision-making process [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Support and Reactions - Alpamayo has garnered significant attention from leading companies in the mobility sector, including Lucid, Jaguar Land Rover, and Uber, highlighting the industry's growing demand for AI systems that can reason about real-world behaviors [7]. - Jaguar Land Rover's product engineering executive emphasized the importance of open and transparent AI development for responsible advancements in autonomous driving [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that while NVIDIA's platform offers traditional automakers a faster and more economical way to enhance their systems, it positions them as "faster followers" rather than true leaders in autonomous driving [9]. - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk expressed confidence in Tesla's position, stating that the company continues to lead the field due to its vast fleet collecting real-world driving data daily [9]. - NVIDIA's open-sourcing of Alpamayo presents an opportunity for second-tier automakers and emerging brands to accelerate their development without spending years on foundational models [11]. Group 4: Market Potential - The shift towards efficient reasoning in autonomous driving is expected to change the competitive focus towards computing power and energy efficiency [11]. - The Chinese L3 autonomous driving market is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the sector [11].

Core Insights - The CES 2026 showcased consumer-grade AI robots as a focal point, highlighting the industry's vibrancy and innovation potential, while also addressing the challenge of varying intelligence levels among products [2] - Several products demonstrated advanced interaction capabilities, scene understanding, and proactive services, indicating a higher level of technological maturity and practical applicability in home environments [2] Group 1: Featured Products - TCL's AiMe children's companion robot features precise voice recognition and emotional capture, providing personalized growth guidance and emotional companionship for children [3] - OlloNi by Huichang Technology is designed as a cyber pet that emphasizes emotional resonance and active care, integrating a "just right" understanding without being intrusive [4] - Aura from Tuya Smart aims to bridge the information gap between pets and owners, offering features like remote monitoring, interaction, and health management, thus serving as a practical example of AI integration in family life [4] - Ellie Boxer by Xingxun Intelligent acts as a safety net for children, providing both safety and gentle companionship, continuing the company's exploration in smart parenting [8] Group 2: Industry Trends - The four highlighted products focus on different family companionship scenarios but share a core design philosophy of "emotional resonance + proactive service," addressing essential family needs [6] - INDEMIND, a key player in consumer-grade physical AI, has developed a comprehensive product system that includes perception sensors, AI models, and a full solution for market deployment, facilitating the large-scale implementation of consumer-grade AI robots [7] - The collaboration between INDEMIND and the featured robots indicates a trend towards technological partnerships aimed at expanding into more niche family scenarios [10] Group 3: Future Outlook - CES 2026 indicates that consumer-grade AI robots are transitioning from concept to reality, creating value through emotional companionship and proactive services in real-life scenarios [9] - Continued technological advancements and industry collaboration are expected to deepen the integration of these intelligent companions into daily life, promoting the evolution of smart home ecosystems [9]

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The A-share market continued its upward trend in the first week of 2026 (January 5-9), with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16-day winning streak and surpassing 4100 points. Major broad-based indices generally rose and reached new highs during the week [1][5] - Market trading remained highly active, with Friday's trading volume returning to the peak of 3 trillion yuan, and the margin financing and securities lending scale exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [1][5] - The market's robust performance was primarily driven by bottom-up growth themes, particularly in technology sectors such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and brain-computer interfaces, with small and mid-cap stocks significantly outperforming [1][5] - The brain-computer interface sector was notably active, driven by expectations of Neuralink's mass production and the establishment of domestic companies, alongside positive sentiment from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6] - The commercial aerospace sector also saw continuous attention due to an IPO boom and supportive policies, with funds increasingly focusing on sub-sectors like space computing and solar power in space [6] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market experienced a "V-shaped reversal" during the week, with the 1-year government bond yield declining by 4.35 basis points to 1.29%, while the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rose by 3.55 basis points to 1.88% and 4.95 basis points to 2.30%, respectively [2][9] - The bond market sentiment showed slight stabilization, but the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the medium term remains low, and further monetary policy easing is not expected [2][9] - Despite the better-than-expected implementation of new public fund fee regulations, the bond market lacks positive catalysts, and with the ongoing spring rally in the equity market, the bond market may experience short-term rebounds but is likely to maintain a neutral stance in the medium term [2][9] Macro Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market shows resilience but also structural pressures, with inflation data expected to have limited risk of a strong rebound. The market has already priced in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in January [7][8] - Overall market liquidity is neutral to optimistic, with potential continued inflows of external funds due to profit-taking effects, suggesting that the market may continue its upward trend [7][8]

智能眼镜正经历从手机配件向独立智能终端的关键跃迁，随着eSIM通信模块的集成与多模态AI技术的落地，这一品类开始实质性接管通话、联网 与复杂运算等手机核心功能。 据国泰海通证券刘越男团队12日发布的研报，在2026年CES（国际消费类电子产品展览会）上，英伟达CEO黄仁勋提出的"物理 AI"概念为行业定 调，标志着AI发展重心正从数字世界迈向能够理解并作用于物理世界的硬件深度融合阶段。 国泰海通证券表示，AI眼镜成为展示焦点。约23家相关参展商中，来自中国的企业占据16席，包括Rayneo（雷鸟创新）、Rokid、INMO（影目） 等品牌。其中，具备独立通信能力的智能眼镜首次亮相，打破了该品类长期依赖手机算力和网络的局限，推动行业向规模化应用加速迈进。 这一技术跨越叠加了强劲的市场增长与政策利好。根据Counterpoint咨询数据，2025年上半年全球智能眼镜出货量同比激增110%，其中AI眼镜占 比已升至78%。与此同时，智能眼镜2025年底首次被纳入"以旧换新"国补范围，预计将为2026年的市场销量带来显著增量。 摆脱手机束缚：独立终端形态确立 国泰海通证券表示，AI眼镜迈向独立终端的标志性事件，是雷鸟 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is preparing for an IPO of its flying car division in Hong Kong, having engaged JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley for the process, with a potential completion as early as this year [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiaopeng Motors' stock rose by 2.04% to HKD 80.15, with a trading volume of HKD 1.318 billion [1] Group 2: IPO Plans - The company has secretly submitted its IPO application for the flying car division, with plans to complete the process within the year [1] - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have been selected to assist in the IPO preparations [1] Group 3: Product Launches - On January 8, Xiaopeng Motors unveiled multiple new models and technology updates at its 2026 Spring Product Launch, including the 2026 P7+, G7 Super Extended Range, G6, and G9 [1] - CEO He Xiaopeng announced that these new vehicles will feature the second-generation VLA (Vision-Language-Action) large model, which is the first in the industry to achieve L4-level initial capabilities [1] Group 4: Future Developments - The company plans to implement physical AI and scale production this year, including the operation of Robotaxi services, humanoid robots, and flying cars [1]

Core Viewpoint - XPeng Motors has engaged banks to assist its flying car division in preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, with plans to submit a confidential listing application, potentially completing the process within this year [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - XPeng Motors-W (09868) saw a late-session increase of over 2%, after initially dropping more than 2% earlier in the day, closing at HKD 80.15 with a trading volume of HKD 1.318 billion [1] Group 2: IPO Plans - The company has selected JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to prepare for its IPO [1] - The IPO is part of XPeng's strategy to expand its flying car division, with a confidential application already submitted [1] Group 3: Product Launches - On January 8, XPeng Motors announced multiple new models and technology updates during its 2026 Spring product launch, including the 2026 P7+, G7 Super Extended Range, G6, and G9 [1] - CEO He Xiaopeng stated that these new vehicles will feature the second-generation VLA (Vision-Language-Action) large model, marking a significant advancement in the industry [1] - The company plans to implement physical AI and scale production of Robotaxis, humanoid robots, and flying cars this year [1]

格隆汇1月12日｜今日机器人板块表现亮眼，机器人ETF(159770)标的指数涨2.66%，自去年12月17日以 来累计涨近18%，科创综指ETF天弘(589860)标的指数同期上涨19%。 中信建投认为机器人板块处于底部反弹阶段，市场持续博弈特斯拉2026年底百万台产线落地前景，预期 上修有待新催化或量产进展验证。 作为深市规模最大的机器人ETF(159770，联接C类014881）最新为108.6亿元；其跟踪中证机器人指 数，覆盖人形机器人全产业链"头"到"脚"的多个环节，成份股一键打包国内领先的机器人企业。 科创综指ETF天弘(589860，联接C：023722)，覆盖科创板97%市值，全面覆盖硬科技，均衡配置半导 体、AI、生物医药等战略新兴产业占比超80%。 ③黄仁勋在 CES会议上，宣告物理AI的"ChatGPT时刻"已经到来，机器人和自动驾驶有望成为"物理 AI"的理想载体。 ④1月12日，自变量机器人宣布完成10亿元A++轮融资，参投机构包括字节跳动、红杉中国、北京信息 产业发展基金、深创投、南山战新投、锡创投等，此前美团、阿里也参与投资。 ⑤证监会官网信息显示，人形机器人T链一级供应商新剑传 ...

Core Insights - Samsung's foundry business is a crucial foundation for its overall operations, having started in 2005 with minimal revenue compared to TSMC, but achieved significant milestones by adopting advanced technologies [1][2] - Despite initial successes, Samsung faced setbacks due to aggressive strategies that led to quality issues and loss of trust among fabless clients, resulting in a decline in market share [2][3] - The company is now focusing on a strategic overhaul, emphasizing stability and yield improvement in its 2nm process technology, which is seen as a critical step for recovery [4][5] 2nm Process Development - Samsung is betting all resources on the 2nm process starting in 2024, shifting its strategy to prioritize stability and yield improvement over aggressive market positioning [4] - The new 2nm process utilizes an upgraded MBCFET architecture, which significantly enhances transistor performance and reduces power consumption compared to traditional FinFET technology [4][5] - Initial yield rates for the 2nm process were low but have improved significantly, reaching 50%-60% by 2025, which is essential for commercial viability [6] Capacity Expansion - Samsung plans to establish a 2nm production line in its Hwaseong S3 factory, aiming for a monthly output of 7,000 wafers by Q1 2025, with further expansions planned in the U.S. [7] - The company is developing multiple versions of the 2nm process to cater to different market needs, including high-performance computing and automotive electronics [7] Strategic Shift to Physical AI - Samsung is strategically pivoting towards the emerging physical AI market, where it sees greater opportunities compared to the highly competitive data center AI segment dominated by TSMC [8][9] - The company aims to leverage its flexible pricing and supply strategies to attract clients in the cost-sensitive physical AI sector, particularly in automotive applications [9][10] Client Ecosystem Diversification - Samsung is restructuring its client base to include a wider range of customers, from large tech giants to small fabless companies, to adapt to the changing AI semiconductor market [11][12] - The company has successfully secured automotive semiconductor orders, which not only boost revenue but also validate its capabilities in the physical AI domain [10][13] Competitive Differentiation - Samsung is focusing on differentiated strategies to compete with TSMC, particularly in mature process markets and advanced packaging technologies [15][16] - The company's vertical integration allows it to offer comprehensive solutions that reduce total cost of ownership (TCO) for clients, enhancing its competitive edge in emerging markets [17][18] Conclusion - Samsung's transformation story reflects its efforts to adapt to technological setbacks and market dynamics, with recent successes in automotive semiconductors and a diversified client ecosystem indicating progress [18]