Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in U.S. stock indices amid concerns over the Trump administration's tariff policies and ongoing weak manufacturing data, highlighting the impact on investor sentiment and market performance [3][5]. Market Performance - On September 2, major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 249.07 points to 45295.81, a decrease of 0.55%. The S&P 500 fell 44.72 points to 6415.54, down 0.69%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 175.92 points to 21279.63, a decline of 0.82% [3]. - Large tech stocks mostly weakened, with Nvidia down 1.95%, Amazon down 1.60%, Tesla down 1.35%, and Apple down 1.04%. The real estate sector was the worst performer, with the S&P 500 real estate index falling 1.7% [4]. Economic Data - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded 48.7, indicating contraction for the sixth consecutive month. The output index fell significantly to 47.8, while orders rose above the neutral line, but employment and price components remained weak [5]. - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data to assess the labor market's continued cooling [5]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The FedWatch tool indicates a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September policy meeting [6]. Individual Stock Movements - PepsiCo's stock rose 1.1% after Elliott Management disclosed a $4 billion stake and proposed active shareholder actions, which may lead to improved governance and capital allocation [6]. - Kraft Heinz's stock plummeted 7% following the announcement of plans to split into two companies focusing on grocery and condiment products [6]. Commodity Market - Oil prices continued to rebound, with WTI crude futures up 2.47% to $65.59 per barrel and Brent crude futures rising 1.45% to $69.14 per barrel [6]. - Gold futures reached a new all-time high, closing up 2.16% at $3592.2 per ounce, driven by geopolitical and policy uncertainties increasing demand for safe-haven assets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various sectors in the Chinese economy, highlighting fluctuations in production, demand, and infrastructure investment, while also noting the impact of seasonal factors and policy constraints on these trends. Group 1: Power Generation - As of August 28, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 3.9% decline in July [1][6] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's inflow data showed a significant narrowing of the decline in August compared to July, suggesting that hydroelectric power generation may exceed July levels [1][6] Group 2: Industrial Production - The operating rates in the industrial sector showed mixed results, with upstream production slightly slowing down month-on-month but generally improving year-on-year [7][8] - As of the fourth week of August, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 6.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate for coking enterprises rose by 4.5 percentage points [7][8] Group 3: Steel Production - Major steel mills maintained a stable average daily production of rebar at around 2.2 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of over 27% due to low base effects [10] - Hot-rolled coil production also remained stable at approximately 3.2 million tons per day, with a year-on-year change turning positive [10] Group 4: Infrastructure Investment - The funding availability rate for construction projects continued to recover, reaching 59.2% as of August 26, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [11][12] - The cement dispatch rate recorded 38.1%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% despite a month-on-month decline [11][12] Group 5: Real Estate Market - Real estate sales continued to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 9.9% in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities in August [15][16] - The number of second-hand housing transactions in 82 cities increased by 24.5% year-on-year, indicating some recovery in the market [16] Group 6: Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 3% year-on-year in August, a slowdown from the previous 7% growth, attributed to high base effects from last year [19] - The wholesale volume of passenger vehicles increased by 12% year-on-year, maintaining a steady growth trend [19] Group 7: Container Throughput - Container throughput at domestic ports showed a year-on-year growth of 10.2% from August 4 to August 24, indicating strong export activity [21] - The average cargo throughput also increased by 6.3% year-on-year during the same period [21]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The Trump administration announced a plan to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products and indicated high tariffs on imported furniture[1] - U.S. new home sales in July fell 0.6% to an annualized rate of 652,000, exceeding market expectations of 630,000[1] - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%[1] - The core PCE price index for July rose 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since February 2025, matching expectations[1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased from 75% to 86.4%[1] Group 2: European Economic Policy - The Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 in August, down from 95.7 in July, breaking previous market expectations for a slight recovery[1] - The European Commission proposed legislative measures to implement tariff reductions on U.S. industrial goods and ensure U.S. tariff reductions on EU automobiles[1] Group 3: Global Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with most Asian markets rising while European and U.S. markets faced pressure[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.23%, while 20-30 year yields rose, indicating inflation concerns[1] - Gold prices increased due to rising concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar amid the Federal Reserve appointment controversy[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a calendar of key economic data releases, highlighting important indicators for both the US and China, which are essential for investors to monitor market trends and make informed decisions [1]. Economic Data Summary - The article lists significant economic indicators for August and September, including: - US Manufacturing PMI for August - US Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate for August - China's Foreign Exchange Reserves for August - China's Import and Export data for August - China's M2, Social Financing, CPI, and PPI for August - US CPI for August - China's Industrial Output, Investment, and Retail Sales for August - US Retail Sales for August - Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [4][5]. Additional Information - The article mentions the release of China's Industrial Enterprises Profits for August and the official Manufacturing PMI for September [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of gold and dollar prices, highlighting the struggle of gold prices to break the $3400 resistance level despite a weak dollar, and the potential market movements anticipated in early September due to upcoming economic data [1][10]. Gold Market Analysis - On Wednesday, the international spot gold price opened at $3392.39, reaching a high of $3398.61 and a low of $3373.51, closing at $3396.59, with a slight increase of $3.34 or 0.1% [1]. - Gold continues to show relative strength among precious metals, being the only one with a positive change, despite the overall lack of significant price movements [4][6]. - The market appears to be waiting for key economic data in early September, which may influence future price trends [4][6]. Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index opened at 98.21, peaked at 98.73, and closed at 98.17, reflecting a decrease of 40 points or 0.04% [3]. - The dollar's technical indicators suggest a potential for a rebound, but caution is advised as the market may be in a phase of technical weakness [8][10]. - The current dollar index is below the 120-week and 250-week moving averages, indicating a weakened market condition compared to earlier in the year [10][11]. Technical Indicators - The article notes a "bottom divergence" in the dollar index, suggesting a potential bullish signal, but the rebound has been weak, failing to break the 20-week moving average resistance [9][10]. - The Bollinger Bands for the dollar index are tightening, indicating an imminent technical shift, but the direction remains uncertain [8][10]. - The dollar's current position suggests that even if a new bottom forms, it may not lead to a strong mid-term bullish trend as seen in previous years [10][11]. Implications for Precious Metals - A continued weak dollar could benefit gold and silver prices, potentially leading to increased inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [13]. - The article suggests that a weak dollar may support the commodity market, but the balance between benefits and drawbacks remains a topic of debate [13].

Group 1 - The recent movements in the global bond market are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with Powell hinting at a potential interest rate cut as early as next month [1] - The U.S. Treasury prices have risen significantly, leading to the steepest yield curve steepening in nearly four years, which has improved market sentiment [1] - Market skepticism remains regarding the extent and sustainability of potential rate cuts, with futures pricing indicating an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17 meeting [4] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting key employment and inflation data to confirm the monetary policy direction, indicating that future market movements will depend on upcoming macroeconomic indicators [4] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped significantly to 3.7%, close to the low point earlier this month, following a jobs report that showed a notable slowdown in employment growth [4] - The interest rate swap market is beginning to price in the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, with some investors even betting on three cuts [4] Group 3 - Despite a positive reaction in the bond market to Powell's statements, the magnitude of this response remains limited due to conflicting economic signals [6] - The labor market shows signs of weakening, while inflation remains at a high level, forcing the Federal Reserve to weigh risks when considering policy easing [6] - The upcoming personal consumption expenditures price index will be crucial; if inflation pressures remain strong, market confidence in further easing may be challenged [4][6] Group 4 - Attention is also required for the upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions covering two-year, five-year, and seven-year bonds, as investor subscription rates will reflect long-term interest rate outlooks and gauge risk appetite [6] - The uncertainty persists, as even with the Fed's easing measures last year, economic resilience led to a pause in actions at the beginning of this year [6] - The bond market's current positive response to Powell's remarks is contingent on future data performance, with employment and inflation being key determinants of the Fed's policy path [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each metal: - Copper: Expected to show an oscillating pattern [8][9] - Alumina: Under pressure and expected to oscillate [10] - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, with a range - bound trend [12][13] - Aluminum Alloy: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, with potential for price spread recovery [13][14] - Zinc: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and decline in the long - term [15][16] - Lead: Expected to oscillate [17][18] - Nickel: Expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and hold a short position in the long - term [19][21] - Stainless Steel: Expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [24] - Tin: Expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August [25][26] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is gradually weakening, and prices are under pressure to oscillate. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the demand - weakening risk is increasing. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in some metals support prices. For specific metals, their prices are affected by factors such as macroeconomic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Sino - US tariff suspension extension leads to high - level oscillation of copper prices. - **Analysis**: Sino - US suspend 24% tariffs for 90 days; Fed keeps interest rates unchanged; copper production increases; spot premiums decline; inventory rises. - **Logic**: Macro - level risk preference rises, but raw material supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season with limited inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Copper may oscillate due to supply constraints, low inventory, weakening demand, and potential tariff impacts [8][9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices decline slightly, and warehouse receipts increase, leading to pressure on alumina prices to oscillate. - **Analysis**: Spot prices in various regions decline slightly; overseas transactions occur; warehouse receipts increase. - **Logic**: Smelter production capacity recovers, resulting in an oversupply and increasing inventory. - **Outlook**: Consider shorting at high levels based on warehouse receipt changes [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are at a discount, and aluminum prices oscillate and decline. - **Analysis**: Spot prices, inventory changes, and corporate performance are presented. - **Logic**: US retail data is weak, and domestic economic data slows. Supply is stable, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulates. - **Outlook**: Observe short - term consumption and inventory accumulation, with prices expected to range - bound [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Tax refund policy tightening leads to oscillating prices. - **Analysis**: Price data, production project information, and policy changes are provided. - **Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. Supply is affected by policy tightening, and demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with potential for price spread recovery [13][14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Declining ferrous metal prices lead to oscillating and declining zinc prices. - **Analysis**: Spot prices, inventory changes, and new project information are given. - **Logic**: Macro - level is slightly negative. Supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [16][17]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Stable cost support leads to oscillating lead prices. - **Analysis**: Price data, inventory changes, and market supply - demand conditions are presented. - **Logic**: Spot premiums are stable, supply and demand are both weak, and cost support is strong. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate due to economic data and supply - demand balance [17][18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Fluctuating market sentiment leads to wide - range oscillation of nickel prices. - **Analysis**: Inventory changes, new policies, and corporate events are provided. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates, and fundamental factors are weakening. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and hold a short position in the long - term [19][21]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Significant increase in warehouse receipts leads to continued price correction. - **Analysis**: Warehouse receipt changes, spot prices, and new policies are given. - **Logic**: Cost increases, production declines, and inventory shows a structural surplus. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to range - bound in the short - term, depending on demand, inventory, and cost [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: Declining Indonesian refined tin exports lead to high - level oscillation of tin prices. - **Analysis**: Inventory changes and spot prices are presented. - **Logic**: Supply is tight, but demand weakens in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August [25][26]. 3.2行情监测 The report provides information on the performance of the non - ferrous metals index, including today's, recent 5 - day, recent 1 - month, and year - to - date changes, showing a decline in the short - term and an increase since the beginning of the year [143].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair is a focal point for investors, reflecting economic conditions in the US and Japan, and influencing global capital flows. Recent performance has sparked widespread market discussion and predictions about its future trajectory [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Bank of Japan's policy adjustments, global economic growth, and geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed's commitment to combating inflation and reducing asset purchases supports a stronger dollar, pushing USD/JPY towards key resistance levels [1][4]. - The Japanese economy is experiencing mild inflation, leading to a continued loose monetary policy, which puts downward pressure on the yen [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key pivot points for USD/JPY are identified at 110.00 and 112.00, serving as strategic resistance and support levels. Market participants closely monitor trading volume and price behavior as the exchange rate approaches these levels [2]. - Technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD can provide early warnings of potential price movements. For instance, a MACD crossover near resistance could indicate bullish momentum, while a rebound in RSI near support may signal a reversal [7]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - Economic data, including US employment figures, inflation metrics, and GDP growth, play a crucial role in shaping market expectations. Positive data could lead to a rebound in the dollar, while disappointing figures may prompt a pullback [4][8]. - Future monetary policy directions will be a significant variable affecting market conditions. A faster tightening pace by the Fed could strengthen the dollar, while unexpected economic data or policy shifts could lead to adjustments in the USD/JPY exchange rate [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risk Factors - Market sentiment and risk appetite are critical, with global uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts and pandemic developments potentially impacting the dollar's performance [5]. - The current market environment is characterized by a "box range" between 110.00 and 112.00, with potential for a breakout or reversal depending on economic indicators or unforeseen events [5][9]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations for Investors - Investors are advised to stay alert to market dynamics and prepare for potential pivot point changes. Understanding these points is essential for future investment strategies [6]. - Setting reasonable stop-loss levels is crucial for risk management, regardless of whether a breakout or reversal occurs. Observing market volume and price behavior near key pivot points can help assess the validity of breakouts [8].

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for July 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.6% and previous value of 4.8% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 1.6%, also below expectations [4] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [15] - Nickel product shipments increased significantly, with nickel product output reaching 139,400 tons, a year-on-year growth of 83.91% [16] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a sales net profit margin of 9.33%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [16] Industry Research: Metal Industry - Frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers is expected to boost the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide [10] - The steel industry is facing supply constraints due to tightened production policies, but demand may be impacted by construction site shutdowns [11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to insufficient fundamental support, with potential demand driven by seasonal inventory accumulation [11] - The rare earth market is seeing improved inquiry conditions, with light rare earth prices expected to be supported in the short term [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including calls for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and economic data performance [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.08 CNY per gram, down 0.01% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3,385.0 USD per ounce, up 0.07% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for interest rate cuts has heightened market expectations for a rate reduction next month, which typically supports non-yielding gold prices [3]. - Tariff policies and geopolitical issues, including statements from Trump regarding tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, as well as tensions in regions like Israel and Ukraine, have increased market risk aversion, impacting gold prices [3]. - Economic data, such as the July CPI showing moderate inflation, supports the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, influencing gold investment demand [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests that expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve may support gold prices, although rising U.S. stock markets and easing geopolitical tensions could limit safe-haven demand [4]. - Long-term factors such as global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are likely to drive gold prices higher, although improvements in U.S. economic data or unexpected Federal Reserve policy changes could restrict price increases [4].