Core Viewpoint - US stock index futures are slightly higher as market focus shifts to economic data and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.3%, reaching a new record high [1] - Nasdaq 100 index futures increased by 0.5% [1] - Dow Jones futures gained 0.1% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index reached a five-week high, driven by market speculation that economic data will show the impact of tariffs is under control [1] - Investors are shifting their attention from recent trade agreements with the EU and Japan to key indicators covering employment, inflation, and broader economic activity [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Earnings Reports - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting [1] - Investors are closely watching earnings reports from major tech companies scheduled for release this week [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Recent progress in trade negotiations with key partners like Japan and the EU has provided some clarity for businesses [1] - This clarity allows investors to refocus on other topics such as corporate earnings and market fundamentals [1]

Group 1 - Asian stock markets have declined for the third consecutive day, with Vietnam's VN Index dropping 4% as optimism from recent trade agreements fades [1][5] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by 0.8%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since late June [1][5] - Investors are shifting focus to key economic indicators as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] Group 2 - The EU-US trade agreement has sparked controversy, with critics arguing it poses risks to the European automotive industry and competitiveness [2] - The euro has depreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching its lowest level in five weeks, reflecting market skepticism about the trade deal [2][5] - Market reactions to the trade agreement have become more rational, with investors prioritizing hard data to assess economic and policy outlooks [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is a key focus for the market, with significant economic data expected to be released this week [6] - Analysts predict that the data will indicate a rebound in economic activity for the second quarter, influencing short-term policy decisions [6] - Gold prices are projected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and increasing global gold reserves [6]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - As of July 28, 32% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings, with 77% exceeding expectations, up from 73% last year[1] - 62% of companies reported both revenue and net profit exceeding expectations, compared to 48% last year[1] - Q2 revenue growth rate was 5.0% year-on-year, while net profit growth rate was 5.5%, better than last year's 3.1% for non-financial companies[1] Group 2: Market Recommendations - It is suggested to buy on dips in the U.S. stock market, as historical trends show seasonal weakness from September to November[2] - The high yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may lead to a potential pullback in Q3, but a weaker dollar could enhance S&P 500 earnings[2] Group 3: Risks and Economic Data - Risks include trade negotiations falling short of expectations and escalating tariff conflicts[3] - U.S. existing home sales slightly declined to 3.93 million units in June, falling below the 4 million mark[8] - Initial jobless claims show a slow decline, while continuing claims remain high, indicating increased difficulty in the job market[8]

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $3320, supported by buying interest despite a decline in safe-haven demand due to a trade agreement between the US and Europe [1] - The price of gold closed at $3336.49, marking a nearly 1% drop over the previous week, which was the third consecutive week of decline [1] - The market is anticipating significant events this week, including international trade developments, central bank interest rate decisions, and key economic data such as the US PCE [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold peaked at $3438.9 before retreating to around $3325, forming a long upper shadow on the candlestick chart, with bearish indicators such as TRIX and MACD suggesting a downward trend [3] - Daily analysis shows gold trading below the mid-band, with KDJ indicators indicating a bearish crossover and MACD lines near the zero axis, reinforcing a bearish outlook [3] - Hourly charts reveal a downward opening of the Bollinger Bands, with KDJ indicators showing a potential short-term bullish crossover, suggesting a slight upward movement may occur, with resistance at $3345 [3] Trading Recommendations - For conservative traders, a sell position is recommended around $3355-$3358 with a stop loss at $3363 and a target profit of $3330-$3325 [5] - For aggressive traders, a buy position is suggested in the range of $3328-$3331 with a stop loss at $3323 and a target profit of $3345-$3350 [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday is anticipated to provide insights into future policy directions, despite no expected interest rate cuts [1] - Key economic indicators, including GDP and non-farm payroll reports, are set to be released, which will be crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy [1][4] - Economic data shows mixed signals, with expectations of a rebound in GDP after a contraction due to increased imports, but also signs of consumer spending stagnation and potential job growth slowdown [4] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Market Sentiment - The earnings season has shown that overall corporate profits have exceeded expectations, with S&P 500 companies' profits growing by 4.5% year-over-year [2] - High-end consumer demand is a bright spot, with companies like American Airlines and Deckers Outdoor reporting strong sales in premium segments [2][3] - Conversely, companies reliant on low-income consumers, such as Chipotle, are facing pressure, with lowered performance guidance due to reduced spending from this demographic [3] Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy remains a significant source of uncertainty for the market, with investors hoping for stability in ongoing trade negotiations [6] - The looming August 1 deadline for tariffs is seen as a potential turning point, but experts caution that clarity on trade costs may take months [6] - The impact of tariffs is already being felt, with companies like Conagra Brands and Abbott mentioning rising costs due to trade policies [3][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent easing of global trade tensions has significantly reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][3] - Gold prices fell for two consecutive days, with a notable drop of approximately 0.55%, closing at $3368.35 per ounce, and approaching the psychological level of $3350 [1][2] - Optimistic market sentiment regarding trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as potential agreements with the EU, has contributed to a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, further pressuring gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming US durable goods orders data is expected to provide critical insights into the future trajectory of gold prices, with strong data likely to reinforce economic recovery expectations and exert downward pressure on gold [4] - Geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchasing trends, and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are anticipated to have a long-term impact on gold prices [4] - Key dates to watch include the Federal Reserve's meeting on July 30, which may influence inflation outlooks, and the finalization of US-EU trade agreement details before the August 1 tariff deadline [4] Group 3 - Current market conditions suggest a bullish trend for gold, with potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark, despite recent price corrections [5] - The recent dip to $3350 was viewed as a mid-term adjustment, with expectations for a rebound and new upward opportunities following this correction [5] - Investors are advised to monitor resistance levels around $3395/$3400, with a possibility of breaking through to $3410 if market momentum remains strong [5]

Global Asset Price Performance - The Nikkei 225 index led global stock markets with a 4.1% increase, driven by the trade agreement between the US and Japan [1] - Major US stock indices also saw gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 1% respectively [1] - Oil prices declined due to concerns over the outlook for crude oil demand amid stalled trade negotiations between the US and Europe [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, indicating a pause in the current rate-cutting cycle [3] - The Federal Reserve is in a quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting, with market expectations for rate cuts remaining low [3] - The Bank of Japan's deputy governor suggested that the US-Japan trade agreement reduces economic uncertainty, indicating potential for rate hikes later this year [3] US Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims in the US slightly decreased to 217,000, indicating stability in the labor market [11] - Core capital goods orders in June showed a negative month-on-month growth of -0.7%, suggesting a decline in business investment [11] - The US manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, marking the first drop below the neutral line since December, primarily due to decreases in input procurement and inventory spending [11] - A trade framework was established between the US and Japan, reducing tariffs on Japanese goods to 15% and allowing Japan to invest $55 billion in US core industries [11] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - The Eurozone's service PMI rose to 51.2, and manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8, indicating signs of recovery [25] - Tensions escalated between Thailand and Cambodia, leading to military conflict, which may impact regional stability [25] Upcoming Key Focus - Key economic data releases include US June retail sales and wholesale inventories, Eurozone Q2 GDP data, and Japan's June industrial output [31]

Global Asset Prices - Nikkei 225 index rose by 4.1% this week, leading global stock markets[3] - S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increased by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 1% respectively[7] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[3] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims fell from 221,000 to 217,000, indicating a stable labor market[4] - Core capital goods orders in June showed a negative month-on-month growth of -0.7%[4] - U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.9 to 49.5, marking the first decline below the neutral line since December[4] Central Bank Policies - Federal Reserve's rate cut probability for July is close to 0, with expectations of two cuts this year[4] - European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating no urgency for further cuts[4] - Bank of Japan's deputy governor suggested potential for rate hikes due to reduced economic uncertainty from the U.S.-Japan trade agreement[4] Other Economic Developments - Eurozone services PMI rose to 51.2%, while manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8%, the highest in 36 months[4] - Ongoing military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia following border tensions[4] Upcoming Focus - Key upcoming events include U.S.-China trade talks, Q2 GDP data, and U.S. non-farm payrolls for July[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, with the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 49.5 falling short of expectations but the Services PMI at 55.2 being strong, and the weekly initial jobless claims at 217,000 remaining low. The precious metals are mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The probability of an unexpected confrontation is decreasing, but market uncertainties still exist [2]. - Silver has significant advantages over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk appetites are opened, and it is currently in an upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether the change in photovoltaic expectations affects the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations [2]. - The easing signs of the global trade situation and the strong performance of U.S. economic data are the main reasons for the decline in gold prices. These factors reduce investors' concerns about economic turmoil and weaken the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset [2][3] Summary by Related Content Economic Data - The July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value in the U.S. is 49.5, which is lower than expected, while the Services PMI is 55.2, showing strong performance. The weekly initial jobless claims are 217,000, remaining at a low level. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest level in three months, far lower than the economists' expected 226,000. The July U.S. Composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, and the Services PMI climbed significantly to 55.2, indicating an accelerated expansion of economic activities [2][3] Trade Situation - The U.S. and multiple countries are expected to reach tariff agreements one after another. The U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces the automobile import tariff to 15% and exempts some goods from punitive tariffs. The U.S. and the EU's trade negotiations have also shown positive progress, and the market expects the two sides to reach an agreement with a 15% benchmark tariff, lower than the 30% tariff level previously threatened by Trump [2] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals are mainly in a wide - range oscillation. Silver has significant advantages over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk appetites are opened and is in an upward trend. The change in photovoltaic expectations may affect the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations. The easing of the global trade situation and strong U.S. economic data have put pressure on gold prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump continues to promote "good" economic data, emphasizing positive indicators in the U.S. economy [1] Economic Indicators - The article highlights various economic metrics that are being touted as signs of a robust economy, although specific data points are not provided [1] Political Context - The promotion of economic data is framed within the political narrative of the Trump administration, suggesting a strategy to bolster public perception ahead of upcoming elections [1]