美国劳工部当地时间6月11日公布的数据显示，今年5月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，高 于前值但低于预期；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，5月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.1%， 环比涨幅连续第四个月低于预期。分析人士认为，5月美国通胀数据涨幅有限，原因可能是企业使用已 有库存导致价格维持相对稳定。美国加征进口关税的影响可能在未来几个月更为明显。数据公布后，市 场对美联储的降息预期有所升温，交易员普遍预计美联储有望在9月前降息一次，年底前进行第二次降 息。（央视财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance regarding monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Stance** - The inflation data is anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious approach ahead of the policy decision next week [1] - The impact of increased tariffs is currently limited, which supports the Fed's position [1] - **Market Expectations** - According to LSEG data, the money market fully prices in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 18 [1] - There is an expectation that the probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 50% [1]

Core Insights - Barclays economists suggest that the May CPI report may show initial signs of price pressures related to tariffs [1] - The April CPI inflation rate in the U.S. decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 2.3%, moving closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] Group 1 - The April CPI data is viewed as a temporary low point, indicating potential volatility in future reports [1] - High-frequency data tracked by Barclays indicates potential price increase pressures across a wide range of core categories, including clothing, home goods, new cars, and other items [1]

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间6月6日，美国劳工局公布2025年5月美国非农就业数据。美国5月季调后非 农就业人口新增13.9万人，预期12.6万人，前值14.7万人。5月失业率维持在4.2%不变。 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [就业表面虽有韧性，背后暗涌 Table_NewTitle] 不容忽视 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月非农数据 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：美国5月非农新增就业数据保持温和降温的态势，虽略高于预期，但需要注意 的是 "小非农"ADP的意外回落已经降低了市场对于当月NFP的预期。分项来看，服务 行业依然是主要就业贡献部门，并且呈现边际增速上升的态势；生产部门就业市场降温明 显，或是由于零售部门持续低迷使得生产部门放缓了产出。值得注意的是，除了零售和运 输，几乎所有部门5月时薪增速均呈现出 ...

Core Insights - Gold is a global safe-haven asset, and its price fluctuations are closely related to U.S. inflation data. Understanding the linkage between inflation indicators and the gold market can help investors grasp market dynamics [1] Group 1: Key Inflation Indicators - The U.S. inflation monitoring system consists of three main indicators: 1. Consumer Price Index (CPI): Reflects changes in prices of consumer goods and services, directly impacting purchasing power. A sustained rise in CPI often indicates increased inflation pressure and heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3] 2. Producer Price Index (PPI): Monitors prices of raw materials and intermediate goods in the production sector, typically serving as a leading indicator for CPI. An increase in PPI usually gradually transmits to the consumer end, indirectly affecting gold market sentiment [3] 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): Covers a broader range of consumer behavior data, making it an important reference for Federal Reserve policy-making due to its flexible statistical methods [3] Group 2: Inflation's Impact on Gold Prices - The influence of inflation data on the gold market operates through multiple mechanisms [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - During inflation data release periods, investors should pay attention to: 1. Real interest rate effect: When inflation growth exceeds nominal interest rates, real interest rates decline, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting gold prices [7] 2. Expectation volatility effect: Market speculation prior to data release can lead to gold sell-offs if CPI exceeds expectations, while underperforming data may stimulate safe-haven buying [7] 3. Policy transmission effect: The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy based on inflation; persistent inflation may delay interest rate cuts, potentially putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but long-term stagflation risks still provide support [7] Group 4: Monitoring and Analysis - Investors should monitor the release schedule of CPI, PPI, and PCE data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce [8] - Historical data analysis and market reaction patterns should be examined for regularity [10] - Establishing a two-way trading mindset can help mitigate risks from data exceeding expectations [10] - Choosing trading platforms with robust risk control mechanisms is advisable [10]

Core Viewpoint - Weak U.S. inflation data is seen as a contradictory factor in the U.S. bond market, supporting recent recovery in economic confidence while simultaneously dampening concerns over rampant inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - Weak inflation data signals a temporary limitation on the potential for bearish sentiment towards bonds, as it alleviates fears of rising inflation [1] - The risk of sustained inflation in the U.S. is not a primary concern for investors at this moment [1]

Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly silver and gold, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. inflation and retail sales data [2][3] - Silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8110 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.72%, and trading ranged from a low of 8052 yuan to a high of 8165 yuan [1] - International gold prices rose by 1.99% to 3239.66 USD per ounce, while silver increased by 1.26% to 32.616 USD per ounce, indicating a recovery after initial declines [2] Group 2 - The U.S. April PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below expectations, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting market expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are causing uncertainty in the market, leading to a cautious outlook on silver futures, with industrial demand being a key factor to monitor [3]

Core Insights - Recent US inflation data shows a cooling trend, which enhances expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, positively impacting risk assets like cryptocurrencies [4][12] - Improvement in US-China trade relations, with both sides agreeing to lower tariffs, provides additional support for Bitcoin [4][12] Current Price Trends - Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at approximately $2,584.98, down about 3.13% from the previous day, but has seen a remarkable weekly increase of 43.05% [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $103,197, down about 0.42% from the previous day, maintaining a strong support level above $100,000 [4] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's technical indicators show a neutral to strong RSI, with a slight decline in momentum, while MACD remains bullish [4] - Ethereum's technical indicators indicate a strong upward trend, having successfully broken through long-term resistance levels [5] Market Sentiment - The Fear and Greed Index for the cryptocurrency market is at 70, indicating a "greed" level, which suggests optimism among market participants but also hints at potential overheating risks [4][7] ETF Fund Flows - Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a net outflow of approximately $9.6 million, led by Fidelity's FBTC, breaking a 20-day streak of net inflows [4] - In contrast, Ethereum ETFs have seen significant inflows, with $1.35 million net inflow on May 14, indicating a shift in institutional interest from Bitcoin to Ethereum [9] Investment Strategies - Suggested entry points for Bitcoin are in the $100,000-$101,000 range, with a primary target of $105,000 and a stop-loss set below $98,500 [4] - For Ethereum, a buying strategy is recommended in the $2,400-$2,500 support area, with targets of $2,800 and $3,000 [9] Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict Ethereum could reach $5,000 by 2025, driven by its status as the only approved spot Bitcoin ETF alternative, technological advancements, and overall bullish market trends [9][12] - The overall market is in a mid-bull phase, with recommendations to maintain a 65-70% overall position in cryptocurrencies, adjusting Bitcoin and Ethereum allocations to capture potential excess returns [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting more information to make informed decisions regarding interest rates and inflation trends [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, which was below market expectations of 2.4% [1] - Federal Reserve officials, including Goolsbee, suggest that the current inflation data may not provide significant signals for policy changes, emphasizing the need for a longer-term perspective on inflation trends [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 54 basis points by the end of the year, with the next potential cut anticipated in September [2] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to persist, impacting economic growth and leading to a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., while other international markets may experience different trends [2] - Investment strategies are shifting, with increased allocations to international markets outside the U.S., such as Europe and emerging markets, while reducing exposure to U.S. equities and government bonds [2]

换资前言： 一个人如果没有了目标和信念，哪怕有再多人给你指引，也是徒劳。问问自己心中所想做这个投资的目 的是什么？达到了吗？还差多远？需要怎样的条件才可以早日完成自己的目标。我很高兴，你能来了 解，我愿意帮助那些相信我的人，信任，就好比把小孩儿扔向天空，她依然可以笑着，因为她相信你一 定可以接住，信任，也是所有合作的起源，如果抱着怀疑的态度合作，那么这样的合作是不长久的，盈 利绝对不是一单的输赢，赚钱绝对不是一次的博弈，当你愿意放下过去的思维。哪怕，你闭着眼睛，晟 富也绝对不会让你迷路！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三(5月14日)亚市尾盘，现货黄金维持日内跌势，目前金价位于3235美元/盎司附近，日内重挫近20美 元。黄金价格逆转周三早些时候从周低点反弹的势头，由于投资者对美国可能与一些主要贸易伙伴达成 贸易协议持乐观态度，卖家试图重新控制金价。受逢低买盘推动，金价周二反弹，而当天公布的美国通 胀数据比预期疲软，也帮助金价上涨。不过，贸易乐观情绪限制金价的反弹力度。现货黄金周二收盘上 涨0.46%，报3249.90美元/盎司。在最近的美英贸易协定和对中国关税暂停90天之后， ...