Market Overview - The domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, with notable drops in soybean meal over 2%, and declines in soybean oil, Shanghai silver, and Shanghai nickel exceeding 1% [1] - On the upside, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 1%, while SC crude oil, coke, and soda ash saw nearly 1% increases [1] Contract Performance - The latest data shows that the LPG contract (2509M) is at 3879, with a 1.23% increase, while the soybean meal contract (2601M) is down 2.66% at 2568 [2] - Other contracts such as pure soda (2601M) and lithium carbonate (2511M) also showed slight increases of 0.79% and 0.66% respectively [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July was reported at 3.3%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, marking the highest level since February [2] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 55.2% chance of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by October [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in 2026, bringing rates down to a range of 3% to 3.25% from the current 4.25% to 4.50% [1] - The recent inflation report indicated a modest increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with a 0.2% rise in July following a 0.3% increase in June, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - The decline in gasoline prices by 2.2% contributed to the moderate decrease in the CPI, while food prices remained unchanged after two months of 0.3% increases [1] Group 2 - The U.S. interest rate futures market indicated a 93.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 6% chance of a 50 basis point cut, a significant increase from 3% earlier in the day [1][2] - Traders are now anticipating a total rate cut of approximately 65 basis points for the year, up from about 60 basis points the previous week [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested that a 50 basis point cut could be possible due to recent poor employment data, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points [3] - Yellen's comments reflect a tendency of the Trump administration to publicly criticize and provide detailed policy suggestions to the independent central bank [3]

比特币周三携手美股创下历史新高，显示投资者在全球风险资产狂欢中进一步加码押注。 这一同步走势凸显了投机性市场领域与主流股市在同一乐观情绪的推动下齐头并进。本周公布的美国通 胀数据符合预期，加强了市场对于美联储9月降息的押注。金融环境的放松将鼓励资金从蓝筹股流向波 动性更高的加密货币。 "加密货币与股市呈正相关关系，其中以太币与股市的关联性强于比特币"，Ergonia研究主管Chris Newhouse表示，"整体市场情绪看起来积极。" 来源：金融界 比特币在周三纽约晚间交易时段升破12.35万美元，超过了7月14日创下的123,205.12美元的历史纪录。 标普500指数周三收盘连续第二个交易日创下新高，延续了整个夏季的强劲走势。 比特币持续上涨，得益于特朗普政府为加密资产营造的有利立法环境。并且Strategy等公司"囤积比特 币"的策略日益流行，这一企业策略近期也蔓延到以太币等其他加密货币，带动数字资产整体上涨。 ...

Market Overview - U.S. futures pointed to new highs before the market opened, driven by recent inflation data that bolstered hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased by 0.3%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs on Tuesday [3] Economic Factors - Market gains were partly attributed to relief over a potential trade truce between President Trump and China, alongside optimism regarding lower borrowing costs in the U.S. [4] - A rate cut would make borrowing cheaper, potentially boosting investment and reducing costs for households and businesses [4] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious, concerned that Trump's tariff policies could reignite high inflation [5] Corporate Developments - Gildan Activewear announced a $2.2 billion acquisition of HanesBrands, which will give HanesBrands shareholders nearly 20% of the new company [6] - Following acquisition rumors, HanesBrands' stock fell over 9% in pre-market trading after a 28% rise on Tuesday [7] Asian Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo rose by 1.3%, continuing its upward trend after reaching a new high [8] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong surged by 2.6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.5% [8] - South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 1.1%, and Taiwan's index gained 0.9% [10][11] European Market Performance - In Europe, the DAX index in Germany rose by 0.9%, and the CAC 40 index in Paris increased by 0.6% [12] Energy Market - U.S. benchmark crude oil prices fell by $0.52 to $62.65 per barrel, while Brent crude prices dropped by $0.44 to $65.68 per barrel [13] Currency Exchange - The USD/JPY exchange rate decreased from 147.84 to 147.51, while the EUR/USD rate increased from 1.1677 to 1.1713 [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].

Group 1 - A weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report has increased traders' bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89.4% according to the FedWatch tool [1] - The announcement by President Trump that there will be no tariffs on imported gold bars led to a significant drop in international gold prices, with a decline of over 2%, marking the largest drop in nearly three months [1] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation reports and the uncertain global trade situation, which are critical for future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell nearly 2.5%, closing below $3,400 per ounce, the largest drop since May [2] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection clarified the correct customs code for gold bars, which could lead to tariffs being applied, causing a spike in gold prices to a record $3,534.10 per ounce before the White House intervened [2] - Several gold suppliers, including those from Switzerland, have reportedly stopped shipments to the U.S. due to tariff uncertainties [2] Group 3 - The market is awaiting the latest U.S. price data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August set to be released soon [4] - The potential appointment of Stephen Miran to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may lead to a more dovish monetary policy stance [4] - Analysts suggest that if inflation data exceeds expectations, it could provide the Fed with a reason to pause the anticipated rate cut, negatively impacting gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the US July CPI data, which shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, leading to increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - The core CPI for July increased by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, marking the highest level since January [1] - Following the CPI data release, US stock index futures experienced a significant rise, with the Dow Jones index futures up 0.59%, Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.70%, and S&P 500 index futures up 0.59% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the market's reaction indicated that some traders had anticipated a worse inflation report, yet stock index futures still rose despite the acceleration in inflation [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell sharply by over 30 points, with non-US currencies appreciating, including the British pound surpassing 1.35 against the dollar [3] - In the commodities market, spot gold prices surged, approaching $3360 per ounce [5]

（文章来源：新华财经） 荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole表示，美国通胀数据可能超过预期，但美元的任何涨幅可能都是短 暂的。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月12日｜荷兰国际集团的分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，今日晚些时候公布的美国 通胀数据可能超过预期，但美元的任何涨幅可能都是短暂的。他表示，劳动力市场数据比通胀数据更有 影响力，因为人们认为关税引发的价格冲击是暂时的，而且最新的非农就业报告已大幅向下修正。他 说，如果通胀高于预期，但伴随着劳动力市场进一步恶化，仍然可能符合美联储在九月降息的预期。这 意味着高于预期的通胀不太可能导致美元持续上涨。荷兰国际预计，7月份核心通胀率将环比上升 0.4%，高于经济学家普遍预计的0.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices and the market's reaction to potential U.S. tariffs on gold bars, alongside the focus on upcoming U.S. inflation data that may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, gold prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [1]. - The decline followed rumors of a new tariff on imported gold bars, which had previously driven COMEX gold to a new high on August 8 [2]. - Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to classify gold bars for taxation, causing market turmoil, but subsequent clarifications from the White House aimed to stabilize the situation [2]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market attention is shifting towards U.S. inflation data, with the upcoming CPI and PPI reports expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy [3]. - As of August 11, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [3]. - If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets and reignite concerns about stagflation; conversely, lower-than-expected CPI could bolster expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3,400 [3]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, the Nasdaq up 0.09%, and the S&P 500 down 0.06% [4][5].