Group 1 - Global investors are responding with a calm attitude towards the new tariffs announced by President Trump, with various moderate scenarios already priced in by the market [1][2] - The new tariff rates will range from 10% to 70%, with the upper limit significantly higher than the previously announced 50% [1][2] - The market's reaction to tariff news has become more composed, as investors believe the deadline has enough "flexibility" and that the worst-case scenarios are no longer a concern [1][2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and effective dates continues, with only limited agreements reached with the UK and a principle agreement with Vietnam [2] - The EU aims to reach an agreement by July 9, but if negotiations fail, it will take countermeasures to protect its economy [2] - Japan is prepared to defend its interests firmly and is anticipating various possible outcomes in the tariff negotiations [2] Group 3 - The recent tax and spending bill signed into law has led to concerns about increasing the US debt by over $3 trillion, impacting bond investors [3] - Tariff-related inflation risks are putting pressure on US Treasury bonds and the dollar, affecting Federal Reserve policy expectations [3] - The dollar index has experienced its worst performance since 1973, dropping approximately 11% this year, with a 6.6% decline since April 2 [3] Group 4 - Market expectations are adjusting to the possibility of tariffs at 35%, 40%, or higher, while a comprehensive 10% tariff is anticipated [5] - There is cautious optimism regarding the outlook for US stocks, with close monitoring of interest rate changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a critical adjustment phase, influenced by mixed macroeconomic factors and technical indicators, leading to potential short-term volatility and risks of price corrections [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with the market anticipating at least one rate cut this year, but the timing and extent remain uncertain. Key upcoming data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be crucial in determining gold price movements [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade relations, continue to pose uncertainties that may support gold prices despite a reduction in market hedging behavior [3]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Turkey, and India, are still increasing their gold reserves, providing medium to long-term support for gold prices, although the pace of purchases has shown signs of slowing [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical charts indicate short-term support levels at $2280 and $2255, with resistance levels at $2340 and $2365. The MACD on the daily chart has formed a bearish crossover, and the RSI has retreated to neutral territory, suggesting weakened momentum [5]. - A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a drop below $2280 could lead to further testing of the $2250-$2230 range. Additionally, CFTC data shows a reduction in net long positions by hedge funds, reflecting cautious sentiment among institutions [5]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The short-term outlook is bearish with expectations of a corrective phase, likely maintaining a trading range between $2255 and $2340. Short-term traders are advised to adopt a buy-low, sell-high strategy while awaiting a clearer directional breakout [6]. - The medium-term view suggests positioning for potential gains on dips, especially if upcoming non-farm and inflation data disappoint, which could weaken the dollar and boost gold prices. A sustained move above $2300 and a breakout past $2345 could lead to targets of $2385-$2400 [7][8].

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a rare "double kill" scenario in June 2025, with a monthly volatility of 35%, the highest in nearly a decade, driven by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - Investors who timed the market effectively achieved over 15% returns, while those who chased trends faced losses exceeding 20% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions significantly influenced short-term price fluctuations, with gold prices surging nearly $30 to $3398 per ounce on June 23 due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, followed by a drop to $3342.59 on June 24 after a ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated, with a hawkish stance initially suppressing gold prices, but dovish signals later provided support, raising the probability of a rate cut in September to 80% [2] Group 2: Market Patterns - The volatility premium indicated that for every 1-level increase in geopolitical risk, gold price daily fluctuations expanded by 40% [4] - The market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve communications led to significant price swings, with gold prices experiencing ±1.5% changes within two hours of announcements [5] Group 3: Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term support for gold remains strong, with global central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years, and China's central bank expected to increase holdings by 200 tons in 2024 [7] - The wedding season in China (June to August) is projected to boost gold jewelry consumption by 8% year-on-year, contributing to 45% of global physical demand [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold market is anticipated to remain complex in July, with $3350 acting as a critical support level; a breach could lead to a decline towards $3250-$3300, while stability above $3400 may trigger buying pressure [8] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve Chairman's congressional testimony and the release of the U.S. CPI data, which could influence gold prices significantly [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024, which has led to a slight decrease in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield as traders react to the updated economic outlook [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - In the June dot plot, Federal Reserve officials reduced their expectations for the number of interest rate cuts by the end of 2027 [1] - The Fed now projects economic growth rates of 1.4% for this year and 1.6% for next year, down from previous estimates of 1.7% and 1.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the dot plot, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a slight decline, indicating traders' responses to the Fed's economic growth slowdown predictions [1]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, particularly due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and warnings from the World Bank about potential global trade stagnation [2]. - The progress of US-China trade negotiations is influencing gold price corrections, as market expectations of a potential agreement could ease trade tensions and reduce demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - Key economic indicators to watch include the US CPI data, with expectations of a rise in core CPI to 2.9% year-on-year, which could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and subsequently affect gold prices [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a doji candlestick pattern, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears around current price levels, with significant support at 3293 and resistance at 3349 [5]. - The four-hour chart indicates that gold has completed a three-wave structure in its recent price movements, with critical levels at 3293 for support and 3349 for resistance, suggesting potential for further downward movement if these levels are breached [7].

操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3320-3325区域做多，止损在3312，目标看3355-3385，破位持有 受特朗普宣布暂停对欧盟加征高关税影响，市场避险情绪降温，现货黄金开盘后震荡下行，货币政策方面，欧洲 央行管委西姆库斯称6月仍存降息可能，美联储卡什卡利则表示9月前利率调整方向"尚不确定"。最新CME"美联 储观察"数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率为5.6%；7月累计降息25个基点的概率 升至23.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为1.1%。综合来看，当前美国与多国的贸易谈判持续推进，翁富豪建议 大家重点关注谈判进展及地缘局势变化对黄金市场的影响。 从技术面分析来看，月线级别呈现四连阳走势，前三个上涨月后均出现单月回调，当前已连续四个月收涨，五月 份翁老师提醒需重点关注市场风险。周线级别显示黄金在3160区域获得有效支撑，中期看多观点维持不变，只有 跌破该支撑位才会转为下行压力。日线级别当前支撑位于3278区域，价格在此上方运行则保持上行趋势。四小时 级别关键支撑在3320-3325区间，这也是昨日低点位置，正如预期价格在此止跌回升，只要不跌破该区间就继续 关注上行走势； ...

外汇市场一周展望：多重不确定性下的波动前瞻 (2025年5月19日-5月23日) 1. 美元的信用与避险双重属性博弈： 穆迪近期将美国AAA信用评级展望下调至Aa1，并预测美国债 务/GDP比率将持续攀升，这在长期内引发了市场对美元信用风险的担忧，并可能对美债收益率构 成上行压力。 2. 美联储政策预期的矛盾： 尽管部分美联储官员（如博斯蒂克）重申了2025年可能降息一次的预 期，但最新的美国通胀预期（5月一年期通胀预期初值高达7.3%）和疲软的消费者信心数据，共 同描绘了一幅经济增长放缓与通胀压力并存的复杂图景。这种"滞胀"风险或至少是高通胀的持续 性，可能限制美联储的政策空间，使得市场对降息时点和幅度的预期摇摆不定，进而影响美元走 势。 周一 (5月19日): 中国4月经济数据 (10:00): 工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额等数据。若表现强于预期，通常被视 为全球经济需求改善的信号，有望提振澳元、纽元等商品货币 欧元区4月CPI终值 (17:00): 若最终数据较初值上修，将进一步确认欧元区通胀的黏性，可能强化 欧洲央行维持紧缩或延迟降息的预期，从而支撑欧元。 美联储官员讲话 (20:45): 副主席杰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices reflects a shift in market sentiment and investor risk appetite, driven by rising optimism in global trade and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][5]. Market Performance - Spot gold prices fell over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3181.62 per ounce, the lowest level since April 11, with intraday lows hitting $3174.62 [3]. - Other precious metals also experienced declines: silver dropped 1.9% to $32.25 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $982.05 per ounce, and palladium decreased 0.3% to $954.36 per ounce, indicating overall pressure in the precious metals market [3]. Trade Sentiment - The increase in trade optimism has significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading investors to shift funds from traditional safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets such as stocks and commodities [3][4]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market participants are awaiting the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, with expectations that a higher-than-expected PPI could reinforce the likelihood of interest rate hikes, further pressuring gold prices [4]. Technical Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices may be seen as a correction following a period of significant increases driven by global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [4]. - The relative strength of the U.S. dollar has negatively impacted gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it less attractive to investors holding other currencies [4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that gold's long-term value as a safe-haven asset remains intact due to ongoing global economic recovery uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The continued implementation of loose monetary policies by global central banks may enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [4].

Group 1: Tariff Policy Dynamics - The recent US-China tariff truce has temporarily suppressed demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with gold prices dropping to $3,207 per ounce [3] - The tariff agreement, which includes a 90-day buffer period, alleviates concerns over escalating trade tensions, but uncertainty remains regarding future negotiations, potentially supporting gold prices in the long term [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Costs and Inflation Expectations - Tariff policies indirectly affect gold pricing by increasing cross-border trade costs and causing fluctuations in the premium for refined gold, with the London LBMA spot premium varying between $0.3 to $0.5 per ounce [4] - Recurrent global trade tensions could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, reinforcing gold's anti-inflation properties [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Crisis in the Middle East - Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, have heightened market fears and increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - Ongoing geopolitical events, including US engagements with Houthi forces and delays in Iran nuclear negotiations, have further boosted demand for gold as a "hard currency" [5] Group 4: Restructuring of Safe-Haven Assets - The appeal of US Treasuries and the US dollar as safe-haven assets has diminished, with gold emerging as the dominant safe-haven asset [6] - Gold prices reached historical highs, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, before experiencing a brief pullback to $3,255 per ounce, indicating sensitivity to geopolitical risks [6] Group 5: Market Structure Analysis - The US April CPI rose by 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, yet the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts, leading to conflicting market signals [7] - If inflation continues to decline, expectations for future rate cuts could support upward movement in gold prices [7] Group 6: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,000 and $2,960, while resistance levels are at $3,450 and $3,550 [8] - Current market indicators suggest a bullish trend, with potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are breached [8] Group 7: Market Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected due to the tariff policy buffer period and fluctuating risk appetite, which may lead to technical corrections in gold prices [8] - In the medium to long term, ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising recession risks, along with central bank gold purchases projected at 1,045 tons in 2024, indicate continued upward potential for gold [8] - Strategic recommendations include monitoring the $3,200-$3,300 support range for short-term opportunities and considering additional positions above $3,450 for long-term holders, targeting above $3,550 [8]

中美经贸谈判缓和避险情绪 据央视新闻报道,中美经贸高层会谈取得了重要且实质性的进展,并达成了关键共识。特朗普政府挑起的 贸易战,一直以来都是推动今年金价飙升的主要动力之一,此前更是将黄金价格推高至约 3500 美元 / 盎司 的历史高位。如今贸易战出现缓和迹象,这一消息极大地打击了市场对于黄金的避险需求。投资者的目 光迅速从黄金转向全球两大经济体谈判所带来的积极成果,资金也开始从黄金等避险资产流向股市等风 险资产。 5 月 12 日,黄金市场遭遇了一场 "周末风暴",此次周末期间,多起重大事件密集爆发,成为金价波动的导火 索。高地集团作为深耕金融市场的专业机构,在此为您深度解读此次金价波动背后的驱动因素,并对市场 走势作出分析。 央行购金潮延续支撑长期价值 从长期视角来看,央行持续购金的趋势并未改变。中国央行已连续 6 个月增持黄金,全球范围内,今年一季 度央行净购金量高达 244 吨。各国央行积极增持黄金,背后反映的是全球长期去美元化的大逻辑。在全 球经济、政局日益复杂的背景下,黄金作为一种可靠的保值资产,其在各国央行资产配置中的重要性愈发 凸显,这为黄金价格的长期走势提供了坚实支撑。 滞胀风险隐现提升黄金 ...