Core Viewpoints - The current market lacks direction, but volatility in Q3 presents opportunities for allocation [1] - U.S. assets are not pessimistic, with potential for outperformance; U.S. stocks may provide buying opportunities upon correction [1][6] - The Chinese market focuses more on structural opportunities, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares [2][12] U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. credit cycle may restart, but Q3 is expected to remain chaotic, providing buying opportunities during volatility [6][9] - Tax cuts are expected to support consumer spending and stimulate corporate investment, with a projected deficit rate reduction in FY2025 [8][9] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice to 3.75-4%, supporting real estate and traditional investments [7][9] Chinese Market Insights - The Chinese credit cycle is still in a contraction phase, with high costs suppressing private sector leverage [10][11] - Structural market conditions lead to "asset scarcity," with investors seeking stable returns or growth-oriented assets [11][12] - The focus on Hong Kong stocks reflects a preference for quality assets amid limited growth expectations in the broader market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung prioritizes economic revitalization, focusing on high-tech industries like AI and semiconductors to enhance competitiveness and create jobs [1][4]. Economic Policy and Market Response - Lee Jae-myung's administration aims to address multiple economic challenges, including regional development disparities and job creation [1][4]. - Following Lee's inauguration, the KOSPI index rose over 4%, rebounding more than 20% from April lows, nearing a bull market [1][8]. - The South Korean won appreciated by 1.50% against the US dollar, reaching a recent high of 1351.80 [1]. Political Stability and Governance - The end of political vacuum is expected to improve the political risk index in South Korea, with a current score of 18.85, down from over 20 [4][8]. - Lee's government is anticipated to have a stable political environment until at least the 2028 National Assembly elections, enhancing policy implementation capabilities [1][4]. Trade Relations and Tariff Negotiations - The new government is prioritizing tariff negotiations with the US, with a focus on reaching a comprehensive agreement by July 8 [5][6]. - The outcome of these negotiations is critical, as South Korea's exports to the US in sectors like automobiles and steel face significant tariffs [5][6]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Despite a 0.2% contraction in Q1 2025, market expectations for South Korea's economic growth are improving, with forecasts for real GDP growth adjusted upwards by major financial institutions [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 0.7% to 1.1%, while Morgan Stanley adjusted its projections for 2025 and 2026 to 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively [9][10]. Investment Sentiment - Lee's commitment to boosting the stock market, with aspirations for the KOSPI index to reach 5000 points, has attracted renewed interest from global asset management firms [10].

随着李在明的上台以及新一轮预算案出台的前景，海外投行已纷纷上调韩国今年的经济增长预期。 据新华社援引韩国总统府消息，韩国总统李在明6月6日与美国总统特朗普通话，谈及韩美关系、经贸磋 商等话题。这是李在明就任韩国总统后首次与特朗普通话。在约20分钟的通话中，特朗普祝贺李在明当 选韩国总统，同时邀请他访美。 4日正式宣誓就职后，李在明已下达"一号行政令"，要求组建"紧急经济检查工作组"，着手提振韩国经 济。李在明强调，韩国目前正面临民生、经济等多重困境，韩国新一届政府将大力发展人工智能、半导 体等高科技产业、持续加大投入，提升韩国企业竞争力，积极创造就业机会并将努力消除地域发展不均 衡等问题。 惠誉评级亚太区主权评级董事杰瑞米·祖克（Jeremy Zook）告诉第一财经，李在明成为韩国新一届总 统，会减少韩国国内的政治波动并提高政府在短期内政策实施的能力。"此次总统选举的结果意味着， 结束了此前总统和立法机构隶属于不同政党的局面。至少在2028年国民议会选举之前，韩国政坛将维持 现状。" 李在明的上任也让韩国资本市场吃了定心丸。自4日以来，韩国基准股指KOSPI上涨超4%，较4月低点 反弹超20%逼近牛市，一度触 ...

Group 1 - Germany's industrial output fell by 1.4% and exports decreased by 1.7% in April, exceeding economists' expectations [1] - The decline in industrial output and exports indicates a challenging start to the second quarter, particularly for the new Chancellor Merz [3] - Despite the weak April data, some economists remain optimistic about future production recovery due to new order growth [3] Group 2 - The German economy is expected to stagnate in 2025, marking an unprecedented three consecutive years of zero growth [3] - Structural issues such as aging labor force and bureaucratic challenges continue to affect Germany's economic resilience [4] - The German government has approved a tax relief plan worth approximately €46 billion (about $52 billion) as part of an economic stimulus strategy [4]

【白银期货最新行情】 6月3日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 8456 2.85% 547586 370146 澳洲联储 5 月货币政策会议纪要表明，董事会认为降息 25 个基点的理由更有力，更倾向于谨慎和可预 测的政策。政策制定者强调，美国的贸易政策对全球前景构成了重大的不利影响，但尚未影响澳大利亚 经济，但是，他们并不认为需要 50 个基点。 澳大利亚储备银行助理行长莎拉·亨特 周二警告称，"美国更高的关税将拖累全球经济。亨特还指出，更 高的不确定性可能会抑制澳大利亚的投资、产出和就业。然而，他补充说，澳大利亚的出口商相对有能 力度过这场风暴，并假设中国当局将通过财政刺激来支持他们的经济。 【交易策略】 白银期货开盘后迅速冲高至8577点。此轮行情中，由于端午假期前避免持仓过周的策略考量，使得此前 在8250点布局的多单未能持有至最优盈利点。受消息面利好推动，黄金价格大幅攀升，进而带动白银同 步走强。然而，在白银此番上涨之后，需警惕中期趋势的潜在变化，因其可能蕴含中长线下跌的风险。 下方目标位可关注8400点及8250点。 欧盟 对特朗普将美国对钢铁和铝征收双倍关税 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the lowest level since August 2022 and the fourth rate cut in the last six meetings [1][4] - The central bank has significantly revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.8%, indicating a serious economic downturn [1][4] - Political instability and trade pressures are cited as major factors contributing to the economic challenges, including the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol and potential tariffs from the Trump administration [1][4] Group 2 - Following the central bank's decision, the KOSPI index increased by 1.7%, while the Korean won depreciated by 0.71% against the US dollar, trading at 1381.40 [2] - The central bank's monetary policy statement emphasizes the need to maintain a dovish stance to mitigate economic growth risks while closely monitoring domestic and international policy changes [4] - Economic fundamentals have deteriorated sharply, with a surprising 0.1% contraction in GDP in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth since Q4 2020 [4][6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Congress passed a fiscal and tax reform reconciliation bill, projected to increase government debt by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with current debt exceeding $36 trillion[3] - The market sentiment is mixed due to concerns over the deficit, leading to a further decline in the U.S. dollar index[9] - Historical data indicates that during dollar depreciation phases, non-U.S. equities tend to outperform U.S. equities, and commodities like copper, gold, and oil show upward trends[9] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, with the implementation deadline pushed to July 9 after negotiations[2] - The ongoing tariff discussions are seen as part of Trump's negotiation strategy rather than a definitive policy shift[2] - The focus is shifting from tariffs to fiscal stimulus, although concerns about the deficit complicate market reactions[9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24 are projected at 227,000[23] - The April core PCE price index year-on-year is reported at 2.5%, indicating a slight decrease from previous levels[23] - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, with a 6.1% increase in the April pending home sales index[23]

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，日债利率自月初持续上升，但异动发生于本周，集中于 超长期债券。此外，日元套息交易平仓活跃度已突破2012年以来新高，也可能对美股美债产生冲击。进 一步地，若美元资产抛售引发资金回流日本，关注是否会影响美日贸易谈判对"金融条款"的涉及。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 日债利率自月初持续上升，但异动发生于本周，集中于超长期债券。虽然5月日债利率持续上升，但10 年期日债和美债利率的趋势、涨幅基本一致，利率上行压力或来自美债市场的传导。值得关注的异动发 生于本周二(5月20日)，日债利率曲线从走平转为陡峭，20、30年期利率分别跳升13和12基点，单日即 贡献近半当月累计涨幅，且该异动无法从超长期美债利率走势中找到对应。 市场讨论的部分因素对异动的解释力或许不足。 利率上行本已加剧市场对政府债务的担忧，财政刺激方案进一步催化情绪。5月20日超长期债券利率跳 升的催化事件为20年期日债拍卖遇冷——利率已处于上升通道，而日本政府近期讨论财政刺激以应对外 需压力，杠杆率超200%的日本政府若在加息周期举债将加剧债务的不可持续风险。日本2025财年政府 预算草案显示，政府支出中债务赎回 ...

美股进入高位震荡阶段，散户创记录入场抄底拉盘，后续行情能否追高？鲍威尔悄然放鸽转向，降息之 前美股是否还有一跌？特朗普财政刺激或将起反作用。美股短期布局警惕一大风险因素>> 相关链接 ...

泰国内阁批准1570亿泰铢预算以提振经济。 ...