Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three more times during Governor Ueda's term until early 2028, potentially reaching 1.5% [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Projections - The next interest rate hike is expected around June or July 2024, with an initial increase to 1.0% [1] - If the U.S. economy remains strong and domestic inflation stays above the 2% target, the Bank of Japan could implement two rate hikes in the fiscal year starting April 2026 [2] - The central bank's internal estimate for the neutral interest rate is around 1.75%, and raising rates to 1.5% would provide room for future cuts [1][2] Group 2: Political and Economic Challenges - The process of normalizing monetary policy may become more complex as rates approach neutral levels, with potential political resistance from government officials [3] - The recent rate hike to 0.75% was reportedly agreed upon by high-ranking government officials, indicating a level of political support for the Bank of Japan's actions [3] Group 3: Inflation and Fiscal Policy Concerns - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the central bank's 2% target for nearly four years, with businesses passing on rising costs to consumers [4] - The government's large fiscal stimulus plan, aimed at alleviating household cost pressures, may inadvertently accelerate inflation [4][5] - Concerns over fiscal discipline could lead to rising bond yields and further depreciation of the yen, undermining monetary policy efforts to stabilize prices [5]

Group 1 - UBS analysts predict that the US stock market will remain tense in 2024 due to investor concerns about missing out on AI gains and fears of a potential bubble, with volatility expected to continue until 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 14% growth in Chinese corporate earnings in 2024, which could boost stock market performance, with a potential 10% valuation re-rating and a projected 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by 2027 [1] - JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates to address concerns over the weak yen, predicting two rate hikes in 2024, reaching a policy rate of 1.25% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates uncertainty regarding the specific level that would trigger intervention by Japanese authorities, but bold actions may be imminent as the yen strengthens [2] - Danske Bank analysts suggest that the euro may strengthen against the dollar in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and stable ECB rates, with a narrowing gap in real interest rates benefiting the euro [2] Group 3 - CICC emphasizes the importance of policy measures to boost consumption, noting that the macroeconomic backdrop has weakened consumer recovery, but signals of support for domestic demand could lead to a turnaround [3] - China Merchants Bank reports that Japan's interest rate hike may exert pressure on global financial conditions, with a potential long-term impact on liquidity and bond markets [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the need to focus on changes in consumer structure for long-term investment, with an emphasis on new products, technologies, channels, and markets [5][6] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates a mild reduction in policy rates in 2026, with a potential decrease of 10 basis points in one to two instances, which could stabilize bank net interest margins [7] - CITIC Securities continues to favor the AI computing sector, noting strong demand for computing power as AI models evolve [8] - CITIC Securities reports that the US CPI has unexpectedly cooled, which may lead to an upward revision of Fed rate cut expectations, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [9] Group 5 - China Securities expects listed insurance companies to achieve double-digit growth in core premium income and value in 2026, driven by asset reallocation and a favorable equity market [10] - Huatai Securities suggests continuing to position for a spring market rally, focusing on sectors like AI, batteries, and consumer goods that are expected to improve [11]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

Core Insights - The article discusses the positive outlook for international stocks in 2026, highlighting robust earnings, economic growth, and attractive valuations compared to the S&P 500 [2] - It emphasizes the potential for diversification away from the tech-heavy S&P 500, suggesting that international stocks are an appealing alternative for investors [2] Economic Context - Several international economies are expected to implement significant fiscal stimulus, which is anticipated to enhance stock market performance [3] - Germany's fiscal spending is projected to increase, with a focus on a €500 billion infrastructure fund and raising defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2029 [3] - Japan has announced its largest stimulus package since the pandemic, totaling ¥21.3 trillion (approximately $136 billion), aimed at inflation relief for key industries such as AI, semiconductors, and shipbuilding [4] Investment Methodology - The list of the 10 Best Non-US Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds was curated using the Finviz stock screener, WSJ, and Insider Monkey's Q3 2025 database [6] - Stocks were ranked based on the number of hedge fund holders, with market capitalization data sourced from the Wall Street Journal [6] Stock Highlights - **Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL)**: - Market Capitalization: $204.91 billion - Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 48 - Announced a final investment decision on its waterflood project at Kaikias field, expected to increase recoverable resource volumes by approximately 60 million metric barrels of oil equivalent [8][10] - Wall Street maintains a bullish outlook, with a Buy rating and a price target of £2,686.5 from Goldman Sachs and Barclays [12] - **Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO)**: - Market Capitalization: $224.04 billion - Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 50 - Received a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency for a higher dosage of Wegovy, showing improved weight loss results of around 20.7% at 72 weeks [14][15] - The stock has a cautious outlook from Wall Street, with a Hold rating and a price target increase from $47 to $54 by HSBC [17]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly under threat as political influences grow, particularly with the upcoming retirement of Chairman Jerome Powell and the potential for President Trump to reshape the leadership and policies of the Fed [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Political Influence - The impending retirement of Jerome Powell presents an opportunity for President Trump to alter the leadership of the Federal Reserve, which has faced criticism since Powell's appointment in 2018 [2]. - Scott Bessent, a key figure in the selection process, is expected to exert significant influence over the choice of Powell's successor, with speculation that Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate [2][3]. - Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough, indicating a desire for a more compliant Fed leadership [2][9]. Group 2: Criticism of Federal Reserve's Role - Bessent argues that the Federal Reserve has strayed from its original role, particularly during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, where it expanded its influence without sufficient democratic oversight [3][7]. - The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $6.6 trillion, reflecting its expanded role in the economy, which has disproportionately benefited asset owners [3][6]. - Critics, including Bessent, suggest that the Fed has overestimated the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus while underestimating the impact of tax cuts and deregulation on economic growth [7]. Group 3: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The Fed's responsibilities have broadened post-2008 financial crisis, extending into areas like financial regulation and social issues, which some argue is beyond its mandate [7][8]. - There are calls to revisit the 1951 Federal Reserve-Treasury Agreement, which allowed the Fed to control its balance sheet independently, marking a significant step towards its independence [7][8]. - The Trump administration aims to align the Fed's regulatory agenda with White House priorities, including a push for lower interest rates and a shift in debt management responsibilities to the Treasury [8]. Group 4: Future Implications for the Federal Reserve - The potential loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could lead to a concentration of power in the government during future economic crises, undermining the Fed's ability to manage inflation and maintain credit health [10]. - Trust and recognition from the public are essential for the Fed to effectively control inflation and ensure financial stability, which may be compromised under the current political climate [10].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing renewed focus following a price surge above $63 per ounce, indicating strong upward momentum and potential for further increases [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts note a significant increase in bullish sentiment as the gold-silver ratio briefly surpassed 80 but could not hold, leading to renewed interest from buyers [1][2]. - The recent price increase has prompted market participants to adjust their stop-loss levels, reflecting high confidence in the silver market's future performance [3][4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The ongoing global electrification and expansion of AI infrastructure are driving industrial demand for silver, while supply constraints remain unaddressed [4]. - The supply-demand gap is becoming a crucial factor in driving silver prices, reinforcing the market's belief in a long-term upward trend [4]. Valuation Perspective - Despite silver prices stabilizing above $63, they remain relatively low compared to gold prices, with historical gold-silver ratios typically ranging between 50 and 60 [4]. - Analysts predict the gold-silver ratio may decline to around 40, which could accelerate silver price increases, indicating that its relative value has not been fully realized [4]. Future Outlook - There are expectations that silver prices could reach $75 per ounce by 2026, with potential price adjustments providing attractive buying opportunities [2][5]. - Factors such as anticipated loose monetary policy, balance sheet expansion, and ongoing fiscal stimulus are expected to boost demand for hard assets, including precious metals [2][5]. - A recent 25 basis point interest rate cut has lowered policy rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, enhancing expectations for further monetary easing [2][5]. Long-term Investment Logic - The combination of multiple driving forces suggests a solid upward logic for precious metals, with silver offering a more attractive value proposition compared to gold [5]. - The potential for silver prices to rise further remains significant, with long-term investment value still worthy of attention in the current macroeconomic environment [5].

Group 1 - The silver price has surpassed $63 per ounce, attracting significant attention in the precious metals market, with potential for further increases [1] - The recent trend indicates a shift in capital back into the silver market, with $48 per ounce seen as a re-entry point for many investors, laying the groundwork for future price increases [1] - The core driver of rising prices is the expanding real demand, particularly due to the acceleration of global electrification and increased metal material needs in AI infrastructure [3] Group 2 - The silver market is characterized by a long-term tight supply and increasing demand, which is a key reason for the strong price performance [3] - Despite silver prices reaching $63, it remains undervalued compared to gold, with historical gold-silver ratios typically between 50 and 60, and some forecasts suggesting a potential drop to around 40 [3] - Retail investment demand remains resilient, providing additional support to the market, while recent policy rate cuts have contributed to a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Group 3 - Multiple factors, including potential declines in real yields and resistance in the dollar, contribute to a long-term bullish outlook for silver prices [4] - The silver market is currently in a phase of value reappraisal, indicating that the upward trend in silver prices may not be over and warrants ongoing attention [4]

Group 1 - Mizuho Financial Group's CEO expresses optimism about the investment banking business due to Japan's largest fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2] - The acquisition and integration of Greenhill & Co. is yielding positive results, allowing Mizuho to pursue large merger and acquisition deals again [1] - Mizuho ranks 22nd globally in merger advisory, with significant involvement in high-profile deals, including a $9.4 billion acquisition of Skechers USA Inc. [2] Group 2 - Major Japanese banks, including Mizuho, are expected to achieve record profits due to higher loan income from increased benchmark interest rates [3] - Mizuho has raised its profit forecast for the fiscal year ending in March, marking the second upward revision this year [3] - The Japanese stock market, particularly financial stocks, is performing well due to strong fiscal stimulus and rising shareholder return initiatives [3] Group 3 - The new Prime Minister's fiscal policies are expected to clarify Japan's economic growth path, despite concerns over rising public debt [4] - Mizuho anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, aligning with market expectations [4] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is projected to fluctuate between 145 and 150 yen, with the current rate at 155.64 yen [4] Group 4 - Mizuho is negotiating to acquire a stake in Avendus Capital Pvt. in India and aims to expand its presence in the Chinese market, focusing initially on the debt capital market [5] - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned securities firm in China, having received regulatory approval [5] - Mizuho has appointed a former Daiwa Securities executive to lead its new entity in China, indicating a commitment to this challenging market [5]

来源：金十 金融评论家们似乎深信，新任美联储主席将是一位超级鸽派的特朗普忠实拥趸，意在不考虑经济基本面 情况下一味大幅降息。然而，市场并不买账。 鲍威尔的美联储主席八年任期将于明年五月结束，市场普遍预期他将被特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈 塞特取代。特朗普上周也暗示了这一点，称他将人选名单缩小至一人，随后在白宫的一场活动中介绍哈 塞特为"潜在的美联储主席"。 哈塞特无疑是特朗普的忠诚支持者。但市场价格清楚地表明，交易员并不认为由哈塞特领导的美联储会 像特朗普所暗示的那样大幅放松货币政策。 事实上，根据利率期货市场的定价，到明年年底，市场预期中的宽松幅度勉强只有75个基点。这仅仅是 三次25个基点的降息——很可能其中两次会在鲍威尔离任前进行，在2026年下半年新主席上任后仅有一 次。 对此可以有两种解读。 要么是市场低估了明年下半年进一步宽松的风险，这意味着风险资产目前也被低估了；要么是期货市场 判断正确，即美联储明年不会表现得特别鸽派，从而限制了政策推动股市上行和美元下行的空间。 综合考虑所有因素，后一种情况看起来更有可能。近期路透社一项调查的共识中值预测显示，标普500 指数明年年底目标为7490点，仅比上周 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the imminent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with expectations of a 25 basis points increase in December, driven by persistent core inflation [4][10][11] - The Japanese government faces significant challenges, including managing inflation, stimulating economic growth through tax cuts and subsidies, and ensuring fiscal sustainability amid rising government debt [10][14][15] - The economic stimulus plan approved by the Japanese cabinet amounts to 21.3 trillion yen, marking a 27% increase from the previous year, with a focus on direct financial support to households and strategic investments in key industries [12][13][14] Group 2 - In the United States, the report notes a decline in the ADP employment figures, with a loss of 32,000 jobs in November, indicating potential economic weakness [25] - Key economic indicators show a mixed picture, with industrial production slightly increasing and core import prices remaining stable, while the ISM manufacturing PMI has declined [27] - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of declining inflation expectations in the U.S., with the core PCE price index showing a slight decrease [23][24] Group 3 - The Eurozone's GDP has been revised upward for Q3, with a quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, supported by fixed investment and government spending [31] - Eurozone inflation has shown a slight increase, with the November CPI rising to 2.2%, slightly above expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [34]