货币政策独立性

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特朗普这次输定了?白宫罕见披露,博弈正在升级,局势愈发严峻
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 05:23
据中国青年网消息,特朗普的政治宏图正遭受爱泼斯坦旧事、美联储人事角力及突发健康质疑构成的罕见"三重打击"。 佛罗里达州法庭对杰弗里·爱泼斯坦案的持续挖掘如同一枚不定时炸弹。法院近期解封的文件细节虽未直接将特朗普推至风暴中心,但"特朗普"姓名反复出 现在关联人证词列表中。 特朗普(资料图) 这迫使特朗普竞选阵营需高频调整公关策略以应对公众盘诘,宝贵的竞选资源与政治焦点被严重消耗。 特朗普本人虽持续否认涉案指控,舆论场上"特朗普与爱泼斯坦交往几何"、"相关材料是否已完整解封"的热度始终盘踞高位,直接冲击其竞选形象的稳定 感。特朗普竞选团队仅在过去的30天内,就为爱泼斯坦相关议题的危机公关投入了数百万美元竞选资金。 特朗普团队释放的信号引发了更大的政治波澜——美媒Axios独家报道,前总统正积极寻找潜在人选,意图入主美国联邦储备委员会。这不仅是一次人事调 整,而是对货币政策独立性的潜在冲击。 特朗普(资料图) 对高龄竞选人而言,健康状况透明是公众的合理关注。一段广为传播的短视频中,特朗普右手一处显眼瘀伤清晰可见。 尽管其团队迅速声明为"握手时力度稍大所致",物理创伤痕迹之外,其步态问题更是焦点——多位现场目击记者提 ...
特朗普遭迎头“三棒”!当着全世界的面,白宫罕见披露,博弈正在升级,美联储第一时间发声
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 03:31
据海峡网报道,彭博新闻社网站发布文章《特朗普的政治野心遭遇爱泼斯坦事件、美联储与健康问题三 重冲击》,这一报道瞬间引发全球关注,将美国政坛近期的暗流涌动推至台前。 特朗普的政治命运似乎正遭受前所未有的严峻考验。其与亿万富翁马斯克关系破裂,暴露出美国政商关 系的微妙与复杂。 特朗普(资料图) 原本两人在诸多领域合作紧密,从新能源汽车到太空探索,马斯克的企业在特朗普政府时期获得不少政 策扶持。 特朗普(资料图) 财长的担忧,恰是对美国经济和金融稳定的本能保护,这也在一定程度上限制了特朗普在货币政策领域 的任性施政。 特朗普健康状况引发猜测,进一步加剧了政治不确定性。被拍到下肢浮肿、手部瘀伤,这些身体表征在 公众视野中被无限放大。 医学专家分析,下肢浮肿可能是多种疾病信号,从静脉曲张、心脏病到肾脏疾病,任何一种潜在疾病都 可能影响特朗普的执政能力。在现代政治舞台上,领导人的健康状况关乎国家稳定,民众信任度也会因 健康疑云而动摇。 而如今,特朗普政府启动对马斯克太空探索技术公司(SpaceX)与联邦政府机构合同的审查,这一举 措背后,是政治立场分歧还是利益纠葛?外界不得而知。 但可以肯定的是,这为特朗普的政治版图蒙上 ...
美联储理事鲍曼:美联储在货币政策方面的独立性非常重要
news flash· 2025-07-22 12:52
金十数据7月22日讯,美联储理事鲍曼周二表示,美联储在没有政治干预的情况下制定货币政策的能 力"非常重要"。鲍曼在接受CNBC采访时表示:"让我们在货币政策方面保持独立性,这非常重要,但 是,作为这种独立性的一部分,我们也有义务保持透明度和问责制。在我看来,我们有义务倾听各种各 样的声音,了解其他人是如何看待经济的,以及这将如何影响我们在货币政策制定方面的决定。" 美联储理事鲍曼:美联储在货币政策方面的独立性非常重要 ...
美联储理事Bowman:现在是时候回顾并评估哪些监管措施有效。美联储理事会对其中一些变革达成了广泛共识。美联储保持货币政策独立性很重要。
news flash· 2025-07-22 11:47
美联储理事Bowman:现在是时候回顾并评估哪些监管措施有效。 美联储理事会对其中一些变革达成了广泛共识。 美联储保持货币政策独立性很重要。 ...
贝森特私下劝特朗普!别解雇鲍威尔,后果可能很严重
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-20 21:55
华盛顿权力角力:特朗普、鲍威尔与美联储独立性之争 一场关于美联储主席鲍威尔去留的激烈博弈正在华盛顿上演,其影响远超美国国内,波及全球金融市场。这场较量的关键人物并非仅限于总统特朗普和 美联储主席鲍威尔,财政部长贝森特也扮演着举足轻重的角色。据《华尔街日报》报道,贝森特近期私下会晤特朗普,力劝其勿轻举妄动,避免解雇鲍 威尔。 这场博弈的焦点在于美联储的独立性与政府经济政策之间的冲突。特朗普直言不讳地要求美联储大幅降息,甚至公开呼吁降息3个百分点,以期每年为美 国节省1万亿美元。在他看来,鲍威尔若不配合,便应被撤换。 他认为美联储理应服从政府的经济政策导向,这在支持者中也并非孤例。 然而,鲍威尔作为美联储主席,坚守着货币政策的独立性和专业性。尽管未公开回应特朗普的批评,美联储的立场始终明确:货币政策应基于经济数据 和专业判断,而非政治考量。 贝森特的立场最为微妙。作为特朗普任命的财政部长,他必须权衡总统的政治意图与金融市场的稳定性。他主动介入劝说特朗普,显露出他对市场剧烈 波动和潜在金融危机的担忧远甚于总统的政治诉求。 这场政治层面的争议,却让华尔街的金融机构如坐针毡。他们深知美联储独立性对金融市场稳定的至关重要 ...
特朗普想换掉鲍威尔并不容易?一文详解美联储主席职位稳固性
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-18 08:49
Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly under Chairman Powell, is under scrutiny due to political pressures, but legal and institutional frameworks provide significant protection against arbitrary dismissal [1][2]. Legal Protections for Powell - According to Morgan Stanley economist Michael Feroli, the Federal Reserve Board members can only be removed for "just cause," historically interpreted as misconduct rather than policy disagreements [2]. - The 1935 Supreme Court case Humphrey's Executor v. United States established that the President cannot dismiss independent regulatory agency heads due to political differences, which has historically protected the Federal Reserve from direct political interference [2]. - The recent Supreme Court ruling in Trump v. Wilcox further solidified the Federal Reserve's unique status, stating it is a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," thus providing additional legal safeguards for its members against arbitrary dismissal [2]. Challenges to Dismissal - Even if President Trump attempts to dismiss Powell citing "just cause," such as cost overruns on the Fed's headquarters renovation, historical precedents make it difficult to define what constitutes "just cause," potentially leading to lengthy legal battles [3]. - If Trump were to proceed with the dismissal, Powell could file a lawsuit to block the action, which might ultimately reach the Supreme Court [3]. - Analysts suggest that the Supreme Court may allow lower court injunctions to remain in effect during the case, potentially allowing Powell to complete his term [3]. Institutional Design Limits Presidential Influence - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 members, which disperses decision-making power and makes it challenging for any single change in personnel to significantly alter policy direction [3]. - The seven Board members are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year terms, while the Chair and Vice Chair serve 4-year terms, renewable. Powell's term as a Board member lasts until January 2028, and as Chair until May 2026 [3][4]. Continuity in Monetary Policy - Even if Powell were to lose his position as Chair, he could remain on the Board until January 2028 and potentially be elected as Chair of the FOMC, maintaining a significant role in monetary policy formulation [5]. - The current term arrangements for Board members limit the President's ability to influence the composition of the Federal Reserve through normal appointments [6]. Risks of Eroding Independence - Economists generally agree that separating monetary policy from political cycles is beneficial, as politically motivated decisions can lead to inappropriate economic stimulation [7]. - Historical evidence suggests that central banks with greater political independence tend to achieve lower and more stable inflation rates [7]. - Any weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence could increase inflation risks, especially given current pressures from tariffs and rising inflation expectations [7].
美联储掌门人更迭在即:一场政治与市场的博弈
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 05:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political maneuvering surrounding the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the tension between monetary policy independence and political loyalty to Trump [2][3][5]. Group 1: Powell's Situation - Powell faces a significant political crisis, with the probability of his dismissal rising from 15% to 38% in just two weeks, marking the most severe political challenge for a sitting Fed chair in a century [3]. - The Trump administration has initiated the process to select a new Fed chair, despite Powell's term not ending until May 2026, indicating a potential power transition [5]. Group 2: Potential Successors - Kevin Hassett, the White House Chief Economic Advisor, is currently the frontrunner for the Fed chair position, benefiting from a close relationship with Trump and shared economic views [7]. - Hassett's lack of practical monetary policy experience and low industry support (7% in a Bank of America survey) raise concerns about his suitability for the role [9]. - Other candidates include current Treasury Secretary Becerra (26% support), former Fed Governor Warsh (17% support), and current Fed Governor Waller (14% support), each with their own strengths and weaknesses [11][13]. Group 3: Trump's Expectations - Trump demands that the new Fed chair must comply with his directive to lower interest rates and align with his "MAGA economic agenda," emphasizing the need for loyalty over independence [15]. - The selection process may accelerate due to Trump's aversion to policy delays, potentially leading to a quicker transition than anticipated [15]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The new Fed chair will face significant challenges, including rising inflation due to tariffs, weakening economic momentum, and concerns over the Fed's independence from political influence [17][19]. - The historical precedent of political interference in the Fed's operations raises alarms about the potential consequences of appointing a politically loyal chair [19][21]. Group 5: Implications for Global Finance - The outcome of this leadership transition could have profound implications for the Fed's policy independence and the global financial order, with fears that a politically aligned chair could lead to a weakening of the dollar and accelerate de-dollarization efforts [22]. - Key upcoming dates, such as the Fed's interest rate meeting on July 29 and potential new tariffs on August 1, are critical for market participants to monitor [23].
关税政策不确定性笼罩 避险需求支撑国际白银
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-18 03:32
周五(7月18日)亚盘时段,国际白银价格窄幅震荡,最新白银价格交投于38.17美元,涨幅0.12%,特 朗普政府的关税政策是当前市场关注的焦点,关税政策的不确定性为白银的避险功能提供了支撑。 国际银价在从周低点37.50美元反弹后稳定在37.85美元上方,但白银行情仍偏向上行。动量方面,相对 强弱指标(RSI)偏向向上,表明多头掌控局面。 若银价攀升至38.00美元上方,则将为进一步上行扫清道路。下一个阻力位将是38.50美元,随后是今年 至今高点39.12美元,接着是39.50美元和40.00美元。 反之,如果白银价格跌破37.00美元,空头可能会将银价推向20日移动均线36.78美元,随后测试36.00美 元。 日本正与美国商务部长就避免25%关税进行紧急谈判,若8月1日前无法达成协议,关税将正式生效。路 透社报道显示,6月进口价格环比仅上涨0.1%,低于预期的0.3%,但来自中国、日本和欧盟的进口价格 涨势强劲,表明外国出口商并未完全吸收关税成本。富国银行高级经济学家Sarah House指出,进口价 格的上涨显示出关税对物价的直接影响,这可能进一步推高通胀预期。 尽管短期内银价受到美元和收益率上涨的压 ...
金荣中国:现货黄金继续震荡于本周区间内展开争夺
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 07:57
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by market reactions to U.S. President Trump's comments regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alongside economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the overall monetary policy outlook [1][2][4][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility, initially dropping to $3319.58 per ounce due to a strong dollar, before surging over $50 to reach a three-week high of $3377.17 following news of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell [1][2]. - Trump's subsequent denial of the dismissal plan led to a narrowing of gold's gains, closing at $3347.38, up 0.68% [2]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25% to 98.34, influenced by Trump's comments, which alleviated concerns over the dollar's credibility [1]. - The U.S. bond market reacted similarly, with the 30-year Treasury yield peaking at 5.08% before settling at 5.014%, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.466% [1]. - The June PPI data showed no month-over-month increase, contrasting with a 0.3% rise in May, indicating subdued inflationary pressures that support gold prices [4]. - Year-over-year, the PPI increased by 2.3%, suggesting ongoing inflation concerns, particularly due to tariffs [4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a critical factor for gold prices, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts influenced by inflation forecasts and economic growth projections [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently oscillating within a key trading range of $3300 to $3360, indicating ongoing market contention [7]. - Short-term movements have seen gold test lower levels before rebounding, suggesting a potential for further volatility as traders await a breakout direction [7].