Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; neutral on glass, suggesting a wait - and - see stance [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper, suggesting buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pullback; neutral on nickel, suggesting a wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][10][11][12][17][18][19][21] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, suggesting a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggesting a weak sideways movement [1][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on PTA, suggesting a weak sideways movement; bullish on apples and jujubes, suggesting a slightly bullish sideways movement [1][32][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting short - selling on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting a weak sideways movement; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting a low - level sideways movement; bullish on oils, suggesting a limited correction [1][37][40][41][42][43] Core Views - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. External uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs lead to a sideways movement. The stock indices are supported during important meetings, but there may be a risk of profit - taking after the meetings. The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations, and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] - The black building materials market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals. Coking coal and rebar are expected to trade in a range, while glass is facing weak fundamentals and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [7][8][9] - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by global trade tensions, supply disruptions, and demand expectations. Copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a strong position, while nickel and tin are expected to trade sideways [10][11][12][17][18] - The energy and chemicals market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most products are expected to trade sideways, while soda ash 01 contract is expected to decline [22][24][25][30] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply and demand and Sino - US relations. Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways, while PTA is expected to decline slightly [32][33][34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals and seasonal factors. Pigs and eggs are expected to decline, while corn, soybean meal, and oils are expected to trade sideways or have a limited correction [37][40][42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A - share market is affected by external policy uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term and is bullish in the medium to long term. Buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Government Bonds**: The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Supply recovery is slow after the National Day holiday. It has multi - allocation value, and range trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is undervalued, and the demand has recovered while the production has declined slightly. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level, and buying on dips near 3000 for RB2601 is recommended [8] - **Glass**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with rising inventory and weak demand. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is affected by global trade tensions and supply disruptions. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs is recommended [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by ore prices, production capacity, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways at a high level. Buying on dips after a pullback is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term. It is expected to trade sideways. A wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven sentiment. They are expected to trade sideways. Buying after a full correction is recommended [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with high inventory and uncertain export prospects. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by supply and demand and macro - policies. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight downward trend, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The market is affected by cost and supply - demand imbalance. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 6300 - 6700 [25][26][27] - **Rubber**: The supply provides some support, but the demand is limited. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight upward trend, and pay attention to the support at 15000 [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the range of 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The inventory is high, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways with a weak trend. The L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6600 [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: The market is facing oversupply and weak demand. The 01 contract is recommended to be shorted [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and Sino - US relations are uncertain. It is expected to trade sideways [32][33] - **PTA**: The price is affected by oil prices and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4350 - 4600 [33][34] - **Apples**: The quality is declining, and the delivery cost is expected to rise. It is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested. The market is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - to long - term supply is high. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - selling on rallies and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are recommended [40][41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is affected by US soybean harvest and Sino - US trade relations. Buying on dips for the M2601 contract is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The price is affected by palm oil production, soybean supply, and rapeseed import. Buying after a correction is recommended [43][44][45][46][47][48][49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core Views - The stock index futures market showed a volume - shrinking adjustment with overall resilience. After two consecutive days of gains, the market took a rest on Wednesday. The Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.38%. Defensive sectors like oil and gas and banks led the rise, while military and agricultural products led the decline. The A - share trading volume dropped to 1.69 trillion yuan, and the total position of stock index futures decreased by over 30,000 lots. The market is in a state of limited upside and downside, and it is advisable to hold a dumbbell - shaped structure and then shift to a growth - oriented allocation structure when the situation changes [1][7]. - The stock index options market witnessed a simultaneous decline in volume and volatility. The trading volume of the options market was 7815 million yuan, a 20.39% decrease from the previous day. The market liquidity declined, especially for small - and medium - cap varieties. The implied volatility index decreased by 0.51% on average. It is recommended to use covered call strategies to increase returns and also consider holding short straddles [2][7]. - The treasury bond futures market should focus on policy signal releases. The bond market showed a volatile performance. The expectation of loose monetary policy continued to boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market, and the central bank continued to conduct net injections in the open market, with a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan on the day. In the fourth quarter, there is a possibility of the implementation of quantitative tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but the timing may be late. In the short term, caution is still needed, and attention should be paid to policy signals after the Fourth Plenary Session [2][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The current situation is a volume - shrinking adjustment with overall resilience. The basis, spread, and total position of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have changed. The operation suggestion is to hold dividend ETF + IM [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volume and volatility have declined simultaneously, and covered call strategies can be used to deal with the situation. The trading volume of the options market decreased, the risk preference retracted, and the implied volatility continued to decline. The suggestions are covered call and short straddle strategies [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Attention should be paid to policy signal releases. The trading volume, position, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The operation suggestions include trend strategies (volatility), hedging strategies (pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels), basis strategies (pay attention to basis widening), and curve strategies (the curve may remain steep) [7][9]. Economic Calendar - The economic data of China and the US for the week are presented, including China's October LPR, September fixed - asset investment, industrial added - value, social consumer goods retail sales, and the third - quarter GDP, as well as the US's September non - farm payrolls change [10]. Important Information and News Tracking - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: Shenzhen has launched an action plan for high - quality development of mergers and acquisitions from 2025 - 2027, aiming to improve the quality of listed companies, increase the total market value of listed companies, and promote the development of the mergers and acquisitions market [11]. - **Interest Rates**: In September 2025, the average interest rates of bank time deposits for different terms are provided, such as 0.944% for 3 - month deposits [11]. - **Huawei**: On October 22, Huawei released the HarmonyOS 6 special version, including the Harmony Galaxy Interconnection architecture with a transmission rate of 160MB/s, and enhanced functions such as "touch - to - share" [12]. - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government shutdown has entered the 22nd day, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The shutdown is likely to last until November [12]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures markets is mentioned, but specific data details are not provided in the given content [13][17][29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon are all rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has rebounded after adjustment, but the rhythm remains volatile, influenced by factors such as Sino-US relations and domestic demand - stimulating policies [2] - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be a strong - side oscillation [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4][5] - The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are moving up in an oscillatory manner, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The demand for thread steel has rebounded month - on - month but remains weak year - on - year, with production declining and inventory decreasing; the demand for hot - rolled coil has also increased, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down [2] - Iron - making production has slightly decreased but remains high, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain persists [2] - In September, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have increased month - on - month and are stronger than the same period last year, domestic arrivals have dropped from a high level, and port inventories have increased significantly [3] - On the demand side, iron - making production is gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure of production reduction in the future is increasing [3] - There are concerns about external trade frictions and negative feedback in the industrial chain, but there are also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The second round of price increases for coking has started. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased [4] - Coke inventories continue to decline slightly. Downstream purchases are on a small - scale and as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and high - level iron - making production provides support. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [4] Coking Coal - The output of coking coal mines has slightly increased, spot auction transactions have improved, and transaction prices have mostly risen. Terminal inventories have increased [5] - Total coking coal inventories have slightly increased month - on - month, and production - end inventories have slightly decreased. Post - holiday production has not increased significantly [5] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and high - level iron - making production provides support. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [5] Silicon Manganese - Attention is paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price is 5,800 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan/ton decrease from the September transaction price [6] - Iron - making production remains high on the demand side. Weekly silicon manganese production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and inventories have slightly decreased [6] - Manganese ore shipping quotes have slightly increased month - on - month, and spot ores have been boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories have slightly decreased, and contradictions are not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - Attention is paid to steel tender - related news. Iron - making production remains high on the demand side [7] - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has slightly increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has slightly increased marginally [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories are continuously decreasing [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of China's export controls on lithium batteries and related materials, highlighting the potential for increased supply chain friction and financial pressure on companies in the lithium battery industry. It emphasizes the evolving geopolitical landscape and its impact on global supply chains, particularly in the context of AI-driven demand for energy storage solutions. Group 1: Export Controls and Supply Chain Impact - In October 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on lithium batteries exceeding 300Wh/kg and related materials, introducing an uncertain administrative review process that could last up to 45 working days [2][3] - The 45-day potential delay poses significant risks for buyers, threatening production line continuity and forcing them to pay premiums for delivery certainty or seek alternative suppliers [4] - For sellers, the delay creates cash flow pressures, as the capital-intensive lithium battery industry faces challenges in revenue recognition and cash flow synchronization [5][6] Group 2: Policy Evolution and Strategic Control - The new regulations represent a deeper enforcement of previous controls on natural graphite, now including synthetic graphite, indicating a strategic shift towards controlling the entire supply chain of anode materials [7][8] - This evolution reflects a mature strategic thinking from reactive measures to proactive construction of a systematic control framework for critical materials [9] Group 3: AI Demand and Lithium Battery Market - The article highlights the intersection of AI demand and lithium battery needs, noting that AI's growth will require substantial investments in hardware, including energy storage solutions [20][21] - The demand for data center energy storage is projected to grow significantly, with estimates indicating a rise from 10GWh in 2024 to 300GWh by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 76.3% [23][24] Group 4: Financial Risks and Market Dynamics - The article raises concerns about the financial risks associated with the AI investment boom, particularly the reliance on debt financing and the uncertainty of returns on capital expenditures [27][29] - It discusses the potential for an "AI bubble" and its implications for the lithium battery sector, emphasizing that any disruption in AI investment could adversely affect the demand for lithium batteries [37][63] Group 5: Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Reconfiguration - The article notes a shift in major global companies towards "de-risking" their supply chains, moving away from reliance on Chinese manufacturing for critical components [41][42] - This reconfiguration is driven by geopolitical risks and reflects a broader trend of companies reassessing their supply chain strategies in light of increasing tensions [49][50] Group 6: Investment Trends and Market Shifts - Investment flows are changing, with a notable decline in new electric vehicle projects in Europe, while investments are shifting towards Southeast Asia, which presents both opportunities and risks [58][60] - The article suggests that the fragmentation of trade and investment strategies is reshaping the landscape for companies in the lithium battery and electric vehicle sectors [61][62]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell amidst a government shutdown and key economic data delays, indicating a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy while facing challenges from trade tensions and economic uncertainties [1][8]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Signals - Powell's key message is one of continued easing, with a 96% probability of a rate cut in October, while emphasizing the need for a measured approach to avoid overstimulation [3][5]. - The possibility of ending the balance sheet reduction in the coming months is highlighted, suggesting a more liquid global financial environment [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with rising employment risks, which Powell's statements aim to address as a form of liquidity support during a data blackout [5][8]. - The increase in overnight financing rates indicates a tightening liquidity situation, prompting Powell to signal a change to prevent a repeat of past market crises [4][5]. Group 3: Trade Tensions Impact - President Trump's aggressive trade rhetoric, including threats of increased tariffs and restrictions on Chinese students, has negatively impacted market sentiment, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stock prices [7][8]. - The ongoing trade friction, which has escalated since early October, adds to the uncertainty in the market, complicating the economic outlook [7][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Strategies - Following Powell's remarks, the stock market initially rebounded, but Trump's comments quickly reversed this trend, illustrating the volatility driven by news events [5][7]. - Investors are advised to focus on asset allocation and balance, preparing for both opportunities from liquidity easing and the need for safe-haven assets amid rising uncertainties [9][10].

当前市场多空因素交织，对贵金属价格形成复杂影响。特朗普对与中国达成贸易协议所释放的积极信 号，缓解了市场对贸易摩擦升级的担忧。但，俄方重申全面控制顿巴斯立场、俄美会晤未定以及美国政 府持续停摆等因素，仍为市场注入避险情绪。 中辉期货表示，受到俄乌局势突发消息影响，市场避险情绪大幅降温，贵金属短线暴跌。不过中长期趋 势看贵金属看涨逻辑目前没有发生根本性变化。 A股贵金属板块集体低开，湖南白银竞价跌停，西部黄金、中金黄金、晓程科技低开超9%，中金黄 金、山金国际等跟跌。 周三早盘，现货黄金巨震，一度跌破4010美元/盎司，随后快速反弹逾40美元，最新涨逾4100美元大 关。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; neutral on glass, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [1][7][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks; neutral on nickel, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on polyolefins, recommended for wide-range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommended a short-selling strategy [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples and jujubes, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][34][36] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs, recommended to go short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for wide-range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils and fats, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][38][43] Core Views - The policy level emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock market, which boosts market risk appetite. However, there may be a risk of profit-taking after important meetings. The LPR remains unchanged, but there is still a possibility of a cut in the future. The outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month will be a key factor determining market risk appetite [5] - The supply of coking coal is expected to gradually recover after the National Day holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. The first round of coke price increases has started after the holiday, and the demand from steel mills supports the price increase. The price of rebar is expected to oscillate at a low level, with limited room for a sharp decline. The glass market is facing pressure from environmental protection and macro policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [7][9][10] - The global trade situation is tense, but the Chinese copper import situation has boosted market confidence. The copper fundamentals are relatively stable, and the supply-side accidents have a continuous impact. The price of aluminum is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The supply of nickel is expected to be loose in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [11][12][17] - The PVC market is facing weak domestic demand and high inventory, and the export sustainability is questionable. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm and export situation. The styrene market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [21][24][25] - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a period of strong consolidation, supported by the firm overseas raw material prices and the reduction of dark rubber inventory. The urea market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the compound fertilizer production start-up situation, urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [27][28] - The methanol market is expected to oscillate, with strong support from the main downstream demand. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand situation, Fed rate cuts, Sino-US trade war impact, Middle East situation, and oil price fluctuations [29][31] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to oscillate, affected by the Sino-US relationship. The PTA market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the weak macro and cost factors. The apple and jujube markets are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the high-quality fruit prices and the approaching new season [34][35][36] - The live pig market is under pressure in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a reduced position size and wait for rallies to add short positions. The egg market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the far-month contracts. The corn market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the main contract and pay attention to the 1-5 reverse spread [38][40][42] - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. The oils and fats market is expected to have limited downward adjustments in the short term, and it is recommended to go long after the adjustment. The palm oil market is facing pressure from inventory accumulation, but there is also support from the upcoming减产 season. The soybean oil market is facing pressure from high inventory, but the supply gap in November has been narrowed. The rapeseed oil market is expected to have a tight supply situation before the re-import of Canadian rapeseed, and the price bottom support remains [43][46][49] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The policy level emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock market, which boosts market risk appetite. However, there may be a risk of profit-taking after important meetings. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The LPR remains unchanged, but there is still a possibility of a cut in the future. The outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month will be a key factor determining market risk appetite. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to gradually recover after the National Day holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. The first round of coke price increases has started after the holiday, and the demand from steel mills supports the price increase. It is recommended for range trading [7][8] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with limited room for a sharp decline. The RB2601 contract is recommended to look for opportunities to go long around 3000 [9] - **Glass**: The market is facing pressure from environmental protection and macro policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance and wait for a reversal before considering going long [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation is tense, but the Chinese copper import situation has boosted market confidence. The copper fundamentals are relatively stable, and the supply-side accidents have a continuous impact. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks. The alumina is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options, and the cast aluminum alloy is recommended to go long on dips or go long AD and short AL [12][13][15] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. The precious metal prices are expected to be supported by the interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion sentiment. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 11,000 - 12,000 for the SHFE silver 12 contract and 935 - 990 for the SHFE gold 12 contract [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak domestic demand and high inventory, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm and export situation. The 01 contract is temporarily focusing on the pressure level of 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies. It is temporarily focusing on the pressure level of 6600 [25] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to enter a period of strong consolidation, supported by the firm overseas raw material prices and the reduction of dark rubber inventory. It is temporarily focusing on the support level of 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the compound fertilizer production start-up situation, urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations. The reference range is 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate, with strong support from the main downstream demand. The inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand situation, Fed rate cuts, Sino-US trade war impact, Middle East situation, and oil price fluctuations. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support level of 6800, and the PP main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support level of 6500 [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy. The supply is in excess, and the price is expected to decline gradually under the pressure of inventory accumulation [31][33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to oscillate, affected by the Sino-US relationship. The 2025/26 global cotton production and consumption are both expected to increase, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease [34][35] - **PTA**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the weak macro and cost factors. The supply and demand are in a state of slow inventory accumulation [35] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the high-quality fruit prices and the approaching new season [36][37] Agricultural Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The market is under pressure in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a reduced position size and wait for rallies to add short positions. The 05 - 03 spread arbitrage is recommended to be followed [38][40] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the far-month contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to the chicken culling, weather, chicken diseases, and environmental protection policies [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the main contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy and weather conditions [42] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. It is recommended to pay attention to the Sino-US trade relationship and the procurement of vessels after October [43] - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to have limited downward adjustments in the short term, and it is recommended to go long after the adjustment. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts are recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively [43][50]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-22 贵⾦属短线⼤跌，⾏情或进⼊阶段性调 整期 周⼆国内休市后，海外⻩⾦、⽩银⼤幅下跌，伦敦⾦现⽇内跌幅最⾼超 3%，伦敦银现⽇内跌幅最⾼超6%。 我们此前提⽰，贵⾦属波动率显著上 升，上涨⾏情或进⼊尾部阶段，过热⻛险下调整随时可能发⽣，可参考M A5进⾏阶段性⽌盈，⾏情或进⼊阶段性调整期，后续重点关注美联储货币 政策、⼈事变动、地缘及贸易变动。 重点资讯： 1）在日本众议院首相指名选举第一轮投票中，自民党总裁高市早苗 获得过半票数，当选日本第104任首相，成为日本历史上第一位女首 相。她现年64岁，是日本右翼政客代表人物之一，主张实施扩张性财 政政策，并提高防卫开支。新当选的日本首相高市早苗内阁名单公 布，包括内阁官房长官木原稔、财务大臣片山皋月、防卫大臣小泉进 次郎、总务大臣林芳正、外务大臣茂木敏充等人。 2）欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩称，欧洲央行决心确保通胀率在中期 内稳定在2%的目标水平，银行的美元融资更容易出现流动性危机，从 而在压力情境下增加脆弱性。 价格逻辑： 周二国内休市后，海外黄金、白银大幅下跌，伦敦 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongce Rubber reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, driven by rising sales volumes and prices of tire products [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 33.683 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.513 billion yuan, up 9.30% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 11.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.47% [1][2] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.191 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 76.56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.73% [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 20.72%, up 0.96 percentage points year-on-year and 1.04 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][2] Product Performance - In Q3 2025, tire product sales volume increased by 11.22% year-on-year, with sales revenue rising by 12.64% [2] - The average selling price of tire products increased by 1.28% year-on-year and 1.48% quarter-on-quarter, while the average selling price of car tires rose by 8.14% year-on-year and 1.81% quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost and Expenses - The comprehensive procurement price of major raw materials decreased by 5.17% year-on-year and 3.04% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 [2] - The company's selling, administrative, research and development, and financial expenses for Q3 2025 were 4.64 billion, 3.14 billion, 3.75 billion, and 1.17 billion yuan, respectively [3] Capacity Expansion - The company is steadily advancing capacity expansion in Indonesia and Thailand, with significant growth expected in overseas production capacity in 2025 [4] - The Indonesian production base achieved a remarkable milestone by producing its one millionth tire in just 282 days after starting operations [4] Industry Context - The global tire industry is facing increasing trade friction, particularly with the U.S. and Europe imposing additional tariffs and anti-dumping investigations [5] - Leading tire companies with global operations are expected to benefit from their diversified production bases, allowing for flexible order distribution and maintaining competitive advantages [5] Company Position - Zhongce Rubber is one of the largest tire manufacturers in China and ranks ninth globally in the 2025 global tire top 75 rankings [6] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 44.545 billion, 51.178 billion, and 55.074 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.191 billion, 5.437 billion, and 6.151 billion yuan [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global corporate bankruptcies are expected to rise by approximately 5% in 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year of increase, influenced by trade tensions, tightening financing conditions, and external economic uncertainties [1] - In Germany, corporate bankruptcies are projected to remain high at around 24,500 cases in 2026, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase, which would be the highest level in nearly twelve years [1] - The report highlights that the recent implementation of high import tariffs by the United States has significantly impacted global trade, contributing to the deterioration of the business environment for companies [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates a substantial increase in German corporate bankruptcies by approximately 11% in 2025, reaching 24,300 cases, which is about twice the global average increase [2] - Looking ahead to 2027, a temporary easing in the corporate bankruptcy situation in Germany is expected, with a projected decline of about 4% to 23,500 cases, while global corporate bankruptcies are expected to decrease by approximately 1% [2]