1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to significantly impact monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar and increased bond yields, while causing a sharp decline in precious metal prices [2][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Warsh's nomination, the dollar index surged from approximately 96.1 to around 97.2, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 5 basis points to over 4.27%, briefly exceeding 4.28% [2]. - Gold prices fell sharply, retreating 9.13% after reaching over $5,500 per ounce at the end of January [5]. - Silver prices experienced a cumulative decline of 26.20% over three days [7]. Group 2: Kevin Warsh's Background and Policy Stance - Warsh is not a new face at the Federal Reserve, having served as a governor from 2006 to 2011 and being a vocal critic of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) during the 2008 financial crisis [8]. - He has criticized the Fed's balance sheet expansion and proposed reforms aimed at returning to a more disciplined monetary policy framework [9][20]. Group 3: Implications of Warsh's Policies - Warsh advocates for "balance sheet reduction in exchange for interest rate cuts," aiming to control inflation while supporting short-term economic growth and asset prices [9]. - His hawkish stance is expected to strengthen the dollar, as the Fed may prioritize balance sheet management over merely lowering interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [14]. - The anticipated reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could tighten offshore dollar liquidity, raising global financing costs and impacting emerging markets reliant on dollar funding [15][18]. Group 4: Factors Behind Precious Metal Price Declines - The decline in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple factors, including speculative long positions being liquidated and a high concentration of leveraged positions that triggered a domino effect of forced selling [10][12]. - The strong dollar, driven by Warsh's nomination, exerts downward pressure on commodities priced in dollars, including gold and silver [14]. - Increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures by institutions like the CME have forced high-leverage positions to close, exacerbating liquidity issues and price volatility [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - In the short term, gold and silver may continue to face selling pressure as the market adjusts to the new environment of tightening dollar liquidity [17]. - Warsh's potential policy implementation could lead to a more structured and predictable monetary policy, enhancing the credibility and effectiveness of the Fed in the long run [17][20]. - However, the transition may involve significant short-term challenges, particularly for emerging markets that depend on offshore dollar liquidity, which could face capital outflows and increased financing costs [18][19].

8年前，特朗普在第一个任期挑选美联储主席人选时，鲍威尔与沃什是两个主要竞争者，特朗普选择了鲍 威尔。这一选择后来让特朗普懊悔不已。现在，特朗普选择了两人中的另一个。或许，特朗普以为，他若 在8年前就选择了沃什，就不用那么后悔了。 当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普终于宣布了下任美联储主席人选：美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）。沃什在正式履职前尚需美国国会参议院的批准。 无论是第一任期，还是第二任期，房地产商出身的特朗普对于利率有着自己的强烈看法，他常常炮轰鲍威 尔降息太慢、太少。鲍威尔的美联储任期将于5月中旬结束，他还将主持3月、4月两次议息会议。 这场鲍威尔的"继承人之战"持续了数月时间，且异常激烈。除了沃什，主要角逐者还包括白宫国家经济委 员会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）、贝莱德集 团全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德（Rick Rieder）。上述4人都在不同时期登上了头号候选人的宝座。 特朗普赢得第二任总统任期以来，沃什就积极谋取美联储主席一职，他从一个自由贸易的鼓吹者变成了特 朗普关税政策的支持 ...

经历1月最后一个交易日的史诗级暴跌后，2月2日，伦敦现货黄金、白银开盘跌势暂缓，白银盘中一度实现"由跌转涨"。但涨势维持时间不长，黄金、白 银再陷深跌。 2月2日早盘，黄金、白银集体低开，现货白银一度大跌近8%，随后开始反弹，现货黄金一度重返4800美元，现货白银日内涨幅一度扩大至近4%。9:12左 右，黄金、白银再次出现大跳水，现货黄金失守4590美元关口，一度跌至4583美元，现货白银也一度失守80美元关口，COMEX黄金涨超1%，报4802美 元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨超8%，报85美元/盎司。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4685.990 | | 昨年 | 4895.118 | | 总量 | | 0 | | -209.128 | -427% 十益 | | 4783.510 | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4884.784 | 博 仓 | 0 | | 外 雷 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 458 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, nominated as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, possesses unique policy ideas that have led to market confusion regarding his approach to asset reduction, which he prioritizes as a reform task, contrasting sharply with current realities [2][4]. Group 1: Warsh's Policy Perspective - Warsh emphasizes the independence of the central bank but rejects the current leadership's reforms under Jerome Powell, indicating a significant divergence in views on the Fed's role [2][4]. - He believes that the Fed's asset expansion deviates from its core functions, resonating with the traditional Republican views of "small government" and "small central bank" [4]. - Warsh's tenure as a Fed governor began in 2006, and he played a crucial role during the financial crisis, but he later distanced himself from the Fed's quantitative easing policies, particularly after QE2 [4][5]. Group 2: Concerns About Fiscal Policy - Warsh expressed concerns that additional purchases of government bonds would entangle the Fed in politically charged fiscal policy, leading to his resignation from the Fed [5]. - He argues that the Fed's excessive involvement and poor performance have undermined the legitimacy of its monetary policy independence [5]. - The Fed's recent strategy under Powell, which tolerates inflation above 2%, has drawn criticism for its slow response to rising inflation, with Warsh suggesting that this crisis of independence is self-inflicted [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - Warsh advocates for a potential interest rate cut if it is coupled with a significant reduction in the central bank's asset portfolio, arguing that asset expansion injects excess funds into the market, which could lead to rising interest rates [5]. - Despite a long-term asset reduction plan, the Fed must proceed cautiously due to the complex web of transactions backed by U.S. Treasury securities [5][6]. - The evolving financial landscape over the past 15 years presents challenges for Warsh as he aims to leverage his close relationship with President Trump to navigate economic realities [6].

2月2日早盘，全球最大的加密货币比特币一度跌破76000美元/枚，较2025年峰值时期下跌约40%。截至发稿，比特币回升至77746.86美元/枚。 市场追踪机构Coinglass数据显示，同期全球共有超16万人被爆仓。 | 总爆仓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $3233.76万 | 4小时爆仓 | $1.82亿 | | 多車 | $944.27万 | 念車 | $1.33亿 | | 卒単 | $2289.49万 | 卒車 | $4877.71万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $4.03亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $4.89亿 | | 名車 | $3.00亿 | 多車 | $3.55亿 | | 卒車 | $1.03亿 | 卒車 | $1.35亿 | 与此同时，在沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席后，市场也担心他可能会收紧金融体系中的现金，给加密货币市场带来压力。据报道，美联储的决策对加 密货币市场至关重要，因为加密货币往往表现出所谓的"风险偏好"特性。当利率高企时，美国国债等收益更为安全的资产更具吸引力，从而将资金从加 密货币等波动性较大的资产中分流。相反，较低 ...

具体而言，投资者应以谨慎防守为主。黄金的长期配置价值虽在，但短期内需在新的宏观叙事下寻找合 理的估值中枢。白银风险已急剧放大，参与需极度谨慎。春节长假临近，外盘走势不确定性较大，保持 灵活仓位与充足流动性是首要纪律。 本次调整的直接触发点，是特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什为美联储下一任主席。凯文·沃什的提名本质上是 政治博弈与市场信任重建的结果。一方面，他历史上以批评量化宽松、强调央行独立性而闻名，政策主 张具有鲜明的"鹰派"色彩，特别是反对将资产负债表扩张作为常态工具，主张通过缩表来维护政策空 间。另一方面，他也同样支持通过降息来降低实体经济融资成本，其政策框架呈现出"既鹰又鸽"的矛盾 统一。对于市场而言，凯文·沃什的上任意味着"无约束宽松"的预期被彻底打破，政策路径将更加注重 纪律与平衡，这对前期建立在极端宽松叙事上的资产价格构成了直接冲击。 本次金银暴跌的深层原因则在于市场自身脆弱的运行状态。经历近一个月脱离基本面的急速拉升，金银 市场已积累了巨大的获利盘，技术性回调需求强烈。凯文·沃什的提名成为引爆市场获利了结的导火 索，最终演变为纽约期金单日最大跌幅超10%、白银大跌逾30%。 整体而言，此次金银调整更多 ...

金银大跌因为沃什获联储主席提名？20260201 摘要 市场将金银剧烈波动部分归因于 Kevin Warsh 可能被提名为美联储主 席，因其鹰派立场和反对量化宽松的观点可能导致流动性紧缩，但 Warsh 的候选人身份和立场并非新信息，因此不能完全归因于此。 Warsh 的核心理念是主张通过缩表抑制通胀，反对过度扩张资产负债表， 并倾向于简单规则而非数据驱动决策。然而，上任后实际政策需考虑经 济形势和政治因素，短期内降息可能更为迫切。 市场预期 Warsh 不会立即采取激进缩表措施，而是优先考虑降息以支持 经济增长。美股表现未大幅下跌，表明市场并未全面预期流动性紧缩， 因此金银价格下跌不能完全归因于 Warsh 当选。 Warsh 与特朗普政府关系密切，可能促使其在政策实施上做出妥协，以 确保与白宫保持协调，短期内降息可能是主要任务，而非立即进行激进 改革或大规模缩表。 美联储未来面临的主要挑战包括平衡通胀控制与经济增长，以及处理财 政货币化带来的长期风险。新任主席需灵活调整货币政策工具，加强与 市场沟通，以维持金融稳定。 Q&A 上周五黄金和白银市场出现了大幅下跌，黄金盘中一度跌幅超过 12%，最终收 盘下跌 ...

2月2日早盘，全球最大的加密货币比特币一度跌破76000美元/枚，较2025年峰值时期下跌约40%。截至发稿，比特币回升至77746.86美元/枚。 Holonym首席执行官兼联合创始人沙迪.埃尔.达马蒂指出，外界普遍认为沃什比现任美联储主席鲍威尔更偏鹰派，他过去还曾批评量化宽松和美联储资产 负债表扩张。"这引发了人们的担忧，即若通胀再次上升，他可能在利率问题上采取更激进的举措。"达马蒂说，对加密货币而言，当前最大的问题就 是"不确定性"。 市场追踪机构Coinglass数据显示，同期全球共有超16万人被爆仓。 美国财富管理公司首席经济学家布莱恩.雅各布森认为，未来几天我们可能会看到更多加密货币抛售行为。 需要注意的是，与去年10月的下跌不同，此次比特币暴跌并非由明显的导火索或系统性冲击所致，而是由于需求减弱、流动性稀薄，以及其与更广泛市 场脱钩。此前，比特币未能对地缘政治紧张局势、美元走弱或避险资产上涨做出实质性反应。即使是近几周黄金、白银价格出现剧烈波动后，比特币也 未能吸引资金流入。换句话说，此次抛售并非源于恐慌情绪，而是由于缺乏买家、动力和信心。有分析总结称，比特币正在价格、(市场)相关联性、信 心这 ...

2月2日，国内贵金属期货价格普跌。文华财经数据显示，截至9:04，沪银期货主力合约跌停，沪金期货 主力合约跌超10%，铂期货主力合约跌停，钯期货主力合约跌超15%。 东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，近期，贵金属市场利空因素随后开始发酵。美联储1 月利率会议如期按兵不动，会议声明指出就业市场逐渐企稳，但通胀仍面临上行风险，这使得市场对美 联储短期降息的预期下降。美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也未释放更多鸽派信号，本次会议整体偏空。此 外，美国财政部部长表示，将持续奉行强势美元政策，否认干预日元汇率，美元指数因此止跌回升。值 得一提的是，特朗普提名凯文・沃什为下一任美联储主席，引发市场情绪逆转。相较于其他候选人，沃 什的立场更为鹰派，尽管其满足特朗普的降息诉求，但对量化宽松持强烈反对态度。这意味着后续降息 与缩表的政策预期，标志着流动性全面释放的时期即将结束，美债收益率曲线将进一步陡峭化，金融市 场波动也将随之增加。 展望后市，徐颖表示，中长期来看，黄金价格的上涨逻辑并未发生逆转。近期对白银的炒作明显降温， 特朗普提名沃什为美联储主席等事件，成为行情逆转的导火索。短期地缘政治风险可能降温，美联储大 规模"放水 ...