Inflation Overview - December CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year[2] - Food prices contributed approximately 0.05 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI increase, while industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) added about 0.16 percentage points[2] - Year-on-year, service prices contributed approximately 0.25 percentage points to CPI, and industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) contributed about 0.63 percentage points[2] PPI Analysis - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with PPIRM down by 2.1% year-on-year[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw prices rise for three consecutive months, indicating improved supply-demand structures[19] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is narrowing, with notable increases in non-ferrous metals prices by 10.5%[19] Policy Impact - Consumer stimulus policies are showing continued effects, with a notable reduction in the drag from food prices on CPI[7] - The strategy to boost CPI growth in 2026 focuses on reducing food price impacts, improving industrial consumer goods prices, and enhancing service consumption[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of strong expectations but weak reality, with the market likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is advisable to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of January 9, the closing price of the main rebar contract was 3144 yuan/ton (+22), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton (+20) [7]. - Rebar production increased to 191.04 million tons (+2.82), a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons [7]. - The apparent demand further declined, with this period's apparent demand at 174.96 million tons (-25.48), a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons [7]. - Both factory and social inventories increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08), a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the same period last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [9]. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore port inventories continued to increase, and coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter range - bound trading [9]. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell, with technical support at the 3100 level [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell this week and was weaker than the RB2610 contract. On the 9th, the spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On January 9, the rebar warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1811 tons week - on - week, and the net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract increased by 30564 lots [22]. - **Spot price and basis**: On January 9, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the national average price increased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, with the basis on the 9th at 196 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [34]. - **Iron ore supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased, and port inventories increased. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased [38]. - **Coking plant situation**: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory increased, and the available days of coking coal increased [42]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply - side - **Crude steel production**: In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [46]. - **Rebar production**: On January 8, the weekly rebar production increased by 2.82 million tons week - on - week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week - on - week [50][53]. - **Electric furnace steel**: The average operating rate of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.34 percentage points month - on - month [53]. - **Rebar inventory**: On January 8, the total rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons month - on - month [56]. 3.4.2. Demand - side - **Real estate**: From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.5% [59]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [59]. 3.5. Options Market - Due to the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general decline, with only Shanghai aluminum rising by 1.42%. Shanghai nickel led the decline with a drop of 2.67%, while other metals fell by less than 1% [1] - In the external market, base metals collectively rose, with London tin increasing by 1.84%, nickel by 1.72%, copper by 1.17%, and aluminum by 1.16% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rising by 0.53% and silver by 2.69%, while domestic gold increased by 0.68% and silver fell by 0.9% [1] Black Metals - The black metal sector showed mixed results, with stainless steel rising by 0.25%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil both fell by over 1%, with rebar down 1.1% and hot-rolled coil down 1.02% [1] - In the coking coal sector, coking coal fell by 0.71% and coking coke dropped by 1.83% [1] Macro Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with food prices increasing by 1.1% and non-food prices by 0.8% [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] Renewable Energy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced guidelines for industrial green microgrid construction, mandating that newly built renewable energy generation facilities should have a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% [6][7] E-commerce Logistics - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for December 2025 was 113.6 points, reflecting a 0.5-point increase from the previous month [8] - The increase in the index was driven by improvements in supply-side metrics, while demand remained stable [8] Real Estate Financing - Recent policy guidance allows for the extension of loans for projects on the "white list" of the real estate financing coordination mechanism for up to five years, a significant increase from the previous maximum of two and a half years [9] Currency and Oil Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.15% to 99.01, amid concerns over labor demand and upcoming economic data releases [11] - Oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 0.93% and Brent by 0.97%, driven by geopolitical concerns regarding supply disruptions [12]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the highest growth since March 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][3][5] - The primary driver for the CPI increase was the rise in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw price increases of 18.2% and 4.4% respectively [5][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating stable demand recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking three consecutive months of increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [8][10] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing experienced price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [10] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to narrow further in 2026, with predictions of a potential positive growth rate in the latter half of the year driven by domestic demand recovery and stable expectations [12][13] Group 3 - Experts forecast a moderate recovery in prices for 2026, with CPI expected to stabilize around 0.5% and PPI potentially turning positive by the third quarter [12][13] - Factors contributing to this price recovery include improvements in domestic demand, service price recovery, and stabilization of consumer and business expectations [12][13] - However, some analysts caution that low prices may persist throughout 2026, with a gradual return to inflation expected only by 2027 [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the industrial producer price index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months as of December 2025, reflecting improvements in market competition and price adjustments in key industries [1][3] - In December 2025, the PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, with notable price increases in coal mining and processing, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and cement manufacturing [1] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a positive shift in pricing dynamics across various sectors due to effective macroeconomic policies [3] Group 2 - The ongoing comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition is leading to a significant reduction in price declines in industries such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, while the demand for raw materials is increasing due to the green and intelligent transformation of industries [5] - There is a growing demand for high-quality consumer goods among residents, which is positively impacting the supply-demand situation in sectors like cultural, educational, and sports entertainment products, resulting in better price increases compared to previous years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in January this year will decrease compared to December last year, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in January will narrow compared to December last year [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. In 2025, the national consumer prices were flat compared to the previous year. Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2][7] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, non-food prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and service prices were flat month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2][8] - **Eight major categories**: In December, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.2% month-on-month, housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, transportation and communication prices were flat month-on-month, medical care prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices were flat month-on-month, daily necessities and services prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and other supplies and services increased by 2.8% month-on-month [9] - **Impact factors**: The increase in the year-on-year increase of food prices in December was an important factor driving the relatively large year-on-year increase of CPI in December. The month-on-month increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy by 0.6% affected the month-on-month increase of CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [2][8] - **January forecast**: The current agricultural product prices are conducive to the increase of the year-on-year CPI data in January, and have little impact on the month-on-month CPI data in January. It is speculated that refined oil prices will have a downward pull on the year-on-year CPI in January and may have a slight downward pull on the month-on-month CPI in January [11] PPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decrease and a previous value of a 2.2% decrease. In 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%. Production material prices decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and living material prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [3][12] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Production material prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and living material prices were flat month-on-month [4][13] - **Industry performance**: In December, industries with a relatively large year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices included the oil and gas extraction industry, coal mining and washing industry, etc.; industries with a relatively large year-on-year increase included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Industries with a relatively large month-on-month increase in prices included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; industries with a relatively large month-on-month decline included the oil and gas extraction industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries [12][15] - **Impact factors**: The price increases of precious metals represented by gold and silver prices, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper in December played a relatively large role in the month-on-month increase of PPI in December [5][20]

CPI Insights - In December, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and rose by 0.8% year-on-year (previous value: 0.7%) [1] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and maintained a year-on-year growth of 1.2% for four consecutive months [1] - The main driver for the food CPI was the seasonal increase in fresh fruit prices, while fresh vegetable prices saw a significant decrease in growth [5] PPI Insights - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.1%) but showed a year-on-year decline of -1.9% (previous value: -2.2%) [13] - The structural characteristics of PPI indicate an improvement in overall economic conditions, with the PMI at 50.1% [13] - Rising prices in industrial goods are influenced by geopolitical risks and increased demand in sectors like new energy and AI [2] Market Outlook - The outlook for CPI in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, driven by the upward trend in consumer goods prices due to rising raw material costs [2] - The long-term forecast suggests that pig prices may gradually enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, impacting food CPI [5] - The overall improvement in industrial product prices reflects a recovery in market conditions, supported by various economic policies [13]

Group 1 - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Key industries such as coal mining and washing, as well as coal processing, saw prices rise by 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, both continuing to increase for five consecutive months [1] - The price of new energy vehicle manufacturing shifted from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, China's PPI decreased by 1.9% in December, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The optimization of market competition has led to a reduction in the year-on-year price decline for coal mining, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, with reductions narrowing for five, four, and nine consecutive months respectively [1] - The prices of external storage devices and components increased by 15.3%, while biomass liquid fuel prices rose by 9.0%, and integrated circuit product prices increased by 2.4% [2]

国家统计局1月9日发布数据显示，2025年12月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%， 同比上涨0.8%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。2025年全年，CPI与 上年持平；PPI下降2.6%。 "2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，CPI环比和 同比均有上涨，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。"国家统 计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟说。 董莉娟分析，CPI同比涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大 主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。食品价格上涨1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影 响比上月增加约0.17个百分点。 具体来看，食品中，鲜菜和鲜果价格涨幅分别扩大至18.2%和4.4%，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月 合计增加约0.16个百分点；牛肉、羊肉和水产品价格分别上涨6.9%、4.4%和1.6%，涨幅均有扩大；猪肉 价格下降14.6%，降幅略有收窄。 从环比看，CPI由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。 新华社北京1月9 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the December 2025 consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a 0.8% year-on-year increase in CPI and a 1.9% year-on-year decrease in PPI [1][4]. Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2023 [4]. - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase [4]. - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively, while beef, lamb, and aquatic products also experienced price hikes [4]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [5]. Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking three consecutive months of growth, while the year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [6]. - The article notes that the construction of a unified national market and ongoing macroeconomic policies have positively influenced price trends in various sectors, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices in certain industries [6].