行 华福证券 纺织服饰 2025 年 05 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 纺织服饰 户外专题（二）：从专业到破圈，解析伯希和高 投资要点： 户外专题（二）：从专业到破圈，解析伯希和高性能户外增长密码 定 期 报 告 伯希和以"科技堆料"构建差异化优势，依托 PT-China 平台自主 研发 STORM BREATH 防水透湿等核心技术，并引入全球顶尖供应链 资源，形成"自主+外采"双轨技术体系。产品矩阵覆盖四大梯度系列 （巅峰、专业性能、山系列、经典系列），2024 年 SPU 达 572 个。渠 道策略上，线上 DTC 为核心（2024 年营收占比 77%），线下 DTC 通 过联营模式快速扩张，三年收入 CAGR 达 383%，一二线城市门店占 比提升至 62%，实现高效市场渗透。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅+0.3%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别+0.4%/-2.9%/+1.0%/+0.6%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝环比上周分别+1.32%、+4.95%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅+1.01%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅+0.94%， 服装家纺涨跌幅+0.60%。本周 328 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the home appliance industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks decreased in Q1 2025, primarily due to a temporary policy gap and consumer concerns leading to preemptive consumption [7][15] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to expand, alleviating market concerns and boosting domestic demand for home appliances [7][15] - Leading home appliance companies are expanding into emerging markets, which is anticipated to steadily increase export revenues [7][15] - The report highlights the high dividend yield and stable operations of leading companies, indicating strong investment value in home appliance stocks [7][15] Summary by Sections Section 1: Fund Holdings in Home Appliances - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks was 5.51% in Q1 2025, down by 0.09 percentage points from the previous quarter [15] - The home appliance sector was over-allocated by 2.99%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [15] Section 2: Sector Allocation Changes - Funds increased their allocation to the two-wheeler and black appliance sectors, with increases of 0.39 percentage points and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [20] - Conversely, the white appliance and small appliance sectors saw reductions in allocation, with decreases of 0.53 percentage points and 0.01 percentage points [20] Section 3: Key Stocks in Focus - Funds increased their holdings in Ninebot, Yadea, Chunfeng Power, and Hisense Visual, with increases of 0.26 percentage points, 0.04 percentage points, 0.04 percentage points, and 0.05 percentage points, respectively [67][70] - The report suggests that the "old-for-new" policy will continue to stimulate demand and improve product structure in the two-wheeler sector [70] - In the white appliance sector, the report notes a decline in fund holdings for Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, with decreases of 0.30 percentage points, 0.20 percentage points, and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [68][69]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Financial Supermarket for Thousands of Enterprises by Hundreds of Institutions" in Tianhe aims to facilitate the "old-for-new" program by providing a platform for government, banks, and enterprises to connect, thereby easing the financial pressure on businesses and promoting the initiative effectively [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was held on May 16 at the Yuexiu Financial Building, organized by the Tianhe District Commerce Bureau [1]. - It focused on the "old-for-new" initiative, allowing businesses to access high-amount credit funding in a simpler, more efficient, and cost-effective manner [1]. Group 2: Financial Products Offered - Ten banks participated, presenting various "old-for-new" loan products and incentives to nearly a hundred merchant enterprises [1]. - Loan amounts ranged from 30,000 to 5 million yuan, with terms from 12 to 60 months, highlighting the attractiveness of these products [1]. - The loans are designed to alleviate the financial burden of large consumer purchases and facilitate the upgrading of household equipment [1]. Group 3: Benefits for Enterprises - The event allows small and medium-sized enterprises to find tailored "renewal" benefits for equipment upgrades and technological improvements [1]. - A home sales company noted that the slow reimbursement process had created financial pressure, but the event provided access to flexible and efficient financial solutions tailored to their needs [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that the home appliance sector is expected to benefit from continued national subsidies and a favorable domestic demand environment, with leading companies in the industry poised to gain from both domestic and international markets [1] Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - The home appliance sector is anticipated to see sustained improvement in domestic demand due to ongoing national subsidies, with a year-on-year increase of 19.3% in retail sales of home appliances in Q1 2025 [1] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in export value and 13.1% in volume for home appliances in Q1 2025, driven by emerging markets and a "grab export" effect [1] - The average dividend yield for the home appliance industry is 3.3%, ranking second among 31 primary industries, indicating a strong defensive attribute for the sector [1] Group 2: White Goods - The white goods segment is benefiting from national subsidy policies and a favorable real estate environment, with expectations for increased sales elasticity in Q2 and Q3 [2] - Leading brands are expected to outperform second-tier brands in terms of sales, with structural upgrades in product offerings enhancing profitability for top companies [2] - Despite potential short-term disruptions due to tariff fluctuations, domestic white goods leaders have established overseas production capabilities to mitigate trade barriers [2] Group 3: Color TVs - The domestic color TV market is experiencing a recovery trend, supported by national subsidies and the upcoming U.S. sports events, which are expected to stabilize demand [3] - Domestic brands are focusing on high-end product offerings, while overseas production capabilities are reducing tariff risks, allowing for market share gains against Korean competitors [3] Group 4: Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is closely linked to the real estate market, with ongoing policy support expected to enhance demand and improve valuations [4] - The continuation of national subsidies is anticipated to further stimulate demand, leading to gradual improvements in the sector's fundamentals [4] Group 5: Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is projected to recover significantly due to national subsidies, with a notable increase in demand expected in early 2025 as more product categories are included [5] - The industry is entering a concentrated replacement cycle, driven by the average product lifespan of 3-5 years, which is expected to boost growth for leading small appliance manufacturers [5] - Short-term export orders may face volatility due to U.S. trade tariffs, but the reliance of the U.S. kitchen appliance industry on Chinese supply chains is expected to favor leading manufacturers [5] Group 6: Robotic Vacuums - The robotic vacuum segment is showing strong growth potential, with Q1 2025 data indicating it is one of the most elastic consumer categories benefiting from national subsidies [6] - The domestic market is expected to see accelerated penetration rates as product prices reach attractive levels, with significant sales elasticity anticipated throughout the year [6] Group 7: Export Outlook for Robotic Vacuums - The demand for robotic vacuums in overseas markets remains uncertain due to U.S. trade tariffs and economic conditions, but leading Chinese brands are expected to capture market share in the mid-to-low-end price segments [7] - The potential exit of foreign brands and smaller Chinese brands due to tariffs may create new expansion opportunities for established Chinese brands [7]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.68%，深成指收 跌 1.62%，创业板指收跌 1.92%。沪深两市成交额 11522.45 亿元；申 万行业方面，美容护理、煤炭、公用事业领涨，计算机、通信、电子 领跌；概念板块方面，NMN 概念、合成生物、宠物经济概念涨幅居前， 华为盘古、DRG/DIP、华为昇腾概念跌幅居前；港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.79%，恒生科技指数收跌 1.56%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指收涨 0.65%，标普 500 收涨 0.41%，纳指收跌 0.18%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会】国务院总理李强在会上强 调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在 做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国 际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 【我国城市更新顶层设计出台】中办、国办近日 ...

Core Insights - The implementation of the new housing policy in Qingdao has led to increased activity in both new and second-hand housing markets, with significant growth in transaction volumes and buyer interest [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Activity - New housing online consultation and transaction volumes reached peak levels during the first weekend after the policy was implemented, with a 25% increase in second-hand housing transactions [1] - In April, Qingdao's second-hand housing market recorded 6,881 transactions, with the last week of the month achieving the highest weekly transaction volume since 2025 [2] - The first week of May saw a total of 2,368 transactions in both new and second-hand housing, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase, with second-hand housing showing notable growth [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The new policy includes a comprehensive set of measures aimed at stimulating the housing market, particularly benefiting young people, families with multiple children, and those seeking improved living conditions [4][5] - Specific incentives include subsidies for families purchasing new homes, with 50,000 yuan for two-child families and 100,000 yuan for three-child families, significantly reducing housing costs [4] - The introduction of low monthly payment loans for young buyers under 35, allowing them to pay only interest for the first ten years, has led to a noticeable increase in inquiries for such products [4] Group 3: Future Developments - The Qingdao government plans to enhance policy implementation and oversight to ensure that housing subsidies and financial support reach citizens effectively [5] - There is a commitment to accelerate the construction of 15 pilot projects for quality housing, with an aim to add 12,000 units of affordable housing within the year [5]

Core Insights - The national building materials and home furnishings market experienced a slight decline in sales in April, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.52% despite maintaining seasonal consumption trends [1][2] - The Building Materials Home Furnishing Index (BHI) for April was reported at 113.70, indicating a high level of market activity, although it showed a month-on-month decline [1][2] Sales Performance - The sales revenue of large-scale building materials and home furnishing markets in April reached 108.65 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.52% [1] - Cumulative sales from January to April amounted to 446.29 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.19% [1] Market Sentiment - The "Manager Confidence Index" for April was 170.63, indicating a positive market outlook with an increase of 8.94 points month-on-month, remaining in a high confidence zone [2] - The "Popularity Index" fell to 159.38, down 24.02 points month-on-month, highlighting challenges faced by the industry, including intensified competition and external market pressures [2] Policy Impact - The introduction of policies such as the "old-for-new" program and the allocation of 81 billion in special bonds by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance are expected to bolster market confidence and stimulate demand [2] - The industry is encouraged to innovate and transform towards a sustainable development model focusing on "green, industrial, and digital" integration to leverage policy benefits effectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][20]. Core Views - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by a focus on user experience and content ecosystem development, along with government subsidy policies and steady growth in supermarket categories [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit significantly surpassed Bloomberg consensus estimates, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin and operating profit margin [6][10]. - The company is focusing on long-term investment returns from new businesses like food delivery, with a current daily order volume approaching 20 million [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [6][10]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [9][17]. - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downwards to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [9][17]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [9][17].

Group 1 - The core event is the second super internal purchase event held by Aima in Guigang City, which attracted significant consumer interest and resulted in the sale of 880 electric vehicles, generating a transaction amount of 2.2 million yuan [1] - The event offered consumers up to 2,000 yuan in subsidies through a combination of government, brand, and manufacturer incentives, making electric vehicles more affordable [1] - Guigang City is a major production area for electric vehicles in China, with a well-established industrial chain that includes over 100 enterprises and an annual production capacity of 5 million two-wheeled electric vehicles [1] Group 2 - The local business bureau has actively promoted the old-for-new subsidy policy, leading to a surge in internal purchase events by major electric vehicle companies, which has stimulated consumer demand [2] - The internal purchase model allows consumers to experience a direct and transparent purchasing process by visiting the factory, which enhances consumer confidence and engagement [2] - As of May 10 this year, Guigang City has recorded 15,700 old-for-new transactions, resulting in 7.65 million yuan in subsidies and driving a total transaction amount of 49.9 million yuan [2] Group 3 - The production of new energy electric vehicles in the Port North District has seen significant growth, with over 1.2 million units produced and a production value exceeding 2 billion yuan from January to April, reflecting year-on-year increases of 48.51% and 56.37% respectively [3]

Core Insights - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in three years, with service revenue at 58.8 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 43.4% [2][10] - The retail revenue of JD grew by 16.3% year-on-year to 263.8 billion yuan, driven by strong user growth and supply chain optimization [2][10] Revenue and Profitability - The group achieved a gross margin of 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10] - JD's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3][10] - The company continues to enhance its operational efficiency through its supply chain infrastructure and smart integration of business ecosystems [3][10] Business Development - JD's food delivery service surpassed 10 million daily orders as of April 22, 2025, indicating significant progress in this segment [3][10] - The company has repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares, amounting to approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][10] - The expansion of the platform into new markets, including Hong Kong and international regions, is ongoing, with a focus on maintaining high growth rates in various product categories [10] Policy and Market Environment - The April Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4][11] - The government is expected to introduce flexible policies to address uncertainties in tariffs and enhance financial support for various sectors [11] - The focus on long-term structural reforms and support for consumer spending is anticipated to drive economic growth in the coming quarters [11]