工业硅供给端,周度行业库存去库。据咨询商统计,本周内蒙地区开工减少,甘肃地区开工抬升,整体 周产环增。西北地区,新疆工厂前期复产体量,亦会对供应构成增量。此外，西南地区预计将在10月底逐 步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500元/吨（对标 SI2512 合约）,此亦对盘面上 方空间构成明显压制。月度来看,10月份上游环节新疆工厂复产、西南减产偏少,整体 10月份月产将环比 增加;预计10月工业硅产量(原生)将达到44万吨。库存来看,本周期货仓单环比上周小幅减少 0.9万吨。 SMM 统计本周社会库存去库 0.3万吨,厂库库存去库 0.03万吨,整体行业库存去库 0.33万吨,后续关注 期货仓单的注册情况。 2025 年 10月 26 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 张 航 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面价格偏强震荡,现货价格下跌;多晶硅盘面震荡偏弱,现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面呈偏强运行,短期市场消息提振市场情绪,周五收于 8920元/吨。 现货市场价格有所下跌，SMN 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比-50 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural product market shows mixed trends. Eggs are rising, while dates are falling sharply. The rebound of live pigs is limited, and other products such as soybean meal, cotton, etc., each have their own characteristics and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The main contract 2512 continued to rise strongly, driven by improved demand and increased long - position positions. Spot prices increased due to factors like improved demand after cooling weather, lower inventory, and increased culling of old chickens. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2975 and resistance at 3082 [2]. Dates - The main contract 2601 slumped due to increased supply from new dates and sufficient old - date stocks. Inventory increased, and technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10660 and resistance at 11000 [3]. Soybean Meal - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after a big rise, affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiation news. Domestic factors such as poor crushing profits, slow forward purchasing, and high downstream demand supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2929 and resistance at 2960 [5]. Cotton - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after continuous rises. New cotton acquisition costs increased, downstream spinning mills' operating rates rose, and import volume was low. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13610 [7]. Corn - The main contract 2601 oscillated and closed down, with a sideways trend due to mixed factors. Northeast new grain harvest and downstream replenishment situation, as well as price trends in North China, affected the price. Technically, it is in consolidation. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [9]. Live Pigs - The main contract 2601 first declined and then rose, with an oscillating trend. Factors such as the entry of second - fattening and increased frozen - product storage supported the price, but high inventory limited the rebound. Technically, it is oscillating. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 12000 and resistance at 12300 [11]. Apples - The main contract 2601 continued to rise oscillatingly. Different production areas had different market conditions, and concerns about quality supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8728 and resistance at 8900 [13]. Palm Oil - The main contract 2601 continued to fall, affected by increased Malaysian palm oil production and narrowing export growth. Domestically, sufficient arrivals also pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9080 and resistance at 9180 [16]. Sugar - The main contract 2601 fell slightly after a sharp rise. Import pressure decreased, but new sugar supply increased, limiting the rebound. Technically, the rebound trend is not yet curbed. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5428 and resistance at 5470 [17][19]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Views - For the steel sector, although the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded this week, it remains weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the decline in total inventory is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is now much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the high iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week's data shows that the apparent demand for rebar continues to rebound but is weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the total inventory decline is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held lightly, and profits should be taken in a timely manner when the price drops [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day and 0.72% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 207.07 million tons, an increase of 5.91 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.94%. Hot-rolled coil production is 322.46 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 0.19% [3]. - **Inventory**: The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,099.7 million tons, a decrease of 26.14 million tons from last week, a decline of 2.32%. Rebar social inventory is 437.48 million tons, a decrease of 18.93 million tons from last week, a decline of 4.15%. Hot-rolled coil social inventory is 337.57 million tons, a decrease of 3.77 million tons from last week, a decline of 1.10% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 892.73 million tons, an increase of 17.32 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.98%. Rebar apparent demand is 226.01 million tons, an increase of 6.26 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.85% [3]. II. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: High iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be continued to be held [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 777 yuan/dry ton, up 0.39% from the previous day and 0.45% from last week [5]. - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,729.5 million tons, an increase of 65.3 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 3.92%. Brazilian iron ore shipments are 749 million tons, an increase of 22.1 million tons from last week [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 14,278.27 million tons, an increase of 253.77 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.81%. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,291.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from last week, a decline of 0.03% [5]. III. Industry News - **Coal**: Mongolian coal imports have decreased significantly due to political struggles in Mongolia. On Wednesday, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 570, a decrease of 43.95% compared to the average daily number in October, and it is expected to gradually recover next week [6]. - **Cement**: In the fourth quarter, the intensity of staggered production in the cement industry has increased, and the monthly average kiln shutdown in some areas exceeds 20 days. Recently, cement prices in many places have shown an upward trend [6]. - **Steel Inventory**: In mid-October, the social inventory of steel products in 21 cities was 9.36 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.1%. The inventory fluctuated slightly [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - **Rebar**: As of the week of October 23, rebar production increased from a decline, and the factory and social inventories decreased for two consecutive weeks, while the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks [7]. - **Iron Ore Production**: In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore output of Fortescue Metals Group was 50.8 million tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous quarter and an increase of 6% from the same period last year [8]. - **Global Steel Production**: In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 141.8 million tons. China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [8]. - **Glass Inventory**: As of October 23, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% from the previous period, an increase for three consecutive weeks after the festival, reaching a three-month high [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，螺纹钢周产量低位回升，但库存去化有限，供应利好效应不强。 与此同时，螺纹需求持续改善，但依旧是近年来同期低位，且下游未见好转，旺季成色不足。总 之，螺纹需求季节性回升，而供应同样增加，供需双增局面下基本面改善有限，库存去化压力未 退，钢价仍将承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情 况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - International oil prices surged starting October 22, with U.S. Energy Secretary stating that current low prices present a buying opportunity [1] - Domestic chemical futures rose significantly, with SC crude oil increasing over 4% and fuel oil over 3% on October 23 [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of efficient decision-making in futures trading, highlighting the need for precise information and convenient tools [3] - Many futures investors struggle to profit due to the cumbersome process of switching between multiple apps for market data, news, and trading [3] Group 3 - A successful futures trading app must excel in three core areas: market data, news, and trading experience, forming a "golden triangle" that influences decision-making efficiency and trading outcomes [4] - The article compares various mainstream futures apps based on their performance in these three areas [4] Group 4 - In terms of market data, Sina Finance app provides comprehensive coverage of domestic and international futures, offering millisecond-level real-time data [5] - Other notable apps include Tonghuashun and Dongfang Caifu, known for their robust technical analysis tools, and Wenhua Finance, which excels in quantitative analysis [5] Group 5 - The speed of news delivery is crucial in the futures market, with Sina Finance app providing rapid updates and analyses on significant events [6][7][8][9] - Jinshi Data is recognized for its exceptional speed in delivering global data and news, while Wall Street Insights focuses on in-depth analysis and macro research [7][8] Group 6 - The trading experience is enhanced by the seamless integration of market analysis and execution, with Sina Finance app allowing users to complete transactions without switching apps [10] - Official apps from futures companies are noted for their security and stability in transaction processes [10] Group 7 - Sina Finance app stands out as a comprehensive solution, excelling in market data, news, and trading capabilities, making it a preferred choice for futures investors [11] - The app features over 40 global market data connections and offers tools like "volatility alerts" and AI-driven news analysis [11] Group 8 - The article concludes that selecting the right tools is essential for success in the volatile futures market, advocating for a comprehensive, user-friendly platform [13] - The advantages of comprehensive market data, fast news delivery, and convenient trading make Sina Finance app a common choice among futures investors [14]

2025 年 10 月 23 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4057 | -16（-0.39%） | 4063 +13（+0.32%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2885 | -12 （-0.41%） | 2911 +39 （+1.36%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1035 | +4.5（+0.44%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 289.9 | +3.5（+1.22%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | （元/吨） 山东 | 2950～2960， M2601+60/+80/+110， | 较昨-10至持平； 现货基差M2601+90， 持平或+10或+20； 平或+30； 6-9月M2609-3 ...

2025 年 10 月 23 日 燃料油：跟随原油上涨，盘面波动放大 低硫燃料油：短线转强，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅回弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 漆 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.821 | 2. 25% | | 2,792 | 1.53% | | | | FU2512 | 元/吨 | 2,715 | 1. 53% | | 2.695 | 1.13% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,106 | 2. 37% | | 3.063 | 0.89% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3.135 | 0. 89% | | 3.100 | 1. 17% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日特仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2511 | है | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. There may be a load reduction in the later stage. PX supply and demand is slightly tight, and it has cost support from rising oil prices [7]. - PTA demand is expected to improve marginally, with a unilateral volatile market. Short positions should be reduced. New PTA devices are planned to start, and the overall profit of downstream polyester is rising [7]. - For MEG, short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the restart of some devices and the possible unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices due to profit and coal price factors [7]. Summary by Category Futures Market - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures all rose yesterday, with SC having the largest increase of 2.17%, and PF having the smallest increase of 1.09%. The price of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, and MEG1 - 5 increased, while PF12 - 1 and SC11 - 12 decreased [2]. Spot Market - PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent all increased in price yesterday, with PX CFR China rising by $14/ton. The PX - naphtha spread increased by $6.34/ton, while PTA processing fee decreased by $7.3/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX was still strong in the afternoon. There were buy - side quotes for December floating prices +5, and January had transaction news at +2. A refinery in East China plans to shut down its 150 - million - ton reformer for maintenance later due to a fault. CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical may cut production in November. China's PX imports in September decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, with imports from South Korea decreasing and those from Brunei and Japan increasing [3][5]. - PTA futures fluctuated upward today, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and weak spot basis. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 88 [5]. - A new 80 - million - ton/year MEG device in South China plans to start trial production in early November, and a 90 - million - ton/year MEG device in East China has started maintenance today [6]. - The production and sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated, with an average of 7 - 80% by 3:30 pm. The production and sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were smooth, with an average of 138% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral view [6].

2025 年 10 月 23 日 沥青：地缘刺激，快速上扬 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,326 | 1.84% | 3,336 | 0.30% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,268 | 2.45% | 3,282 | 0.43% | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 37,132 | (3,717) | 27,193 | (8,133) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 50,456 | 10,176 | 76,380 | (1,808) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 13040 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

2025 年 10 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,164 | 涨跌幅 -1.40% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,080 | 涨跌幅 -0.92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,238 | -0.68% | 8,204 | -0.41% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,834 | -0.30% | 9,738 | -0.98% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,452 | -1.24% | 4,423 | -0.74% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.02 | -1.24% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 637,846 | 84307 | 346,365 | 12,688 | | | 豆油主 ...