Strategy - The article discusses the current bull market, emphasizing that it is not merely driven by liquidity and weak fundamentals, but rather the sustainability of this bull market is in question. It draws parallels with Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, highlighting the importance of large-scale fiscal stimulus as a necessary condition for the initiation of a bull market in a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment. The article suggests that if policies are more targeted and aligned with external industrial trends, the bull market could last longer. Key risks to watch include policy easing, external disturbances like the AI bubble, and internal debt exposure [5][8]. Industry - For 2026, the article recommends overweighting gold, increasing allocation to Chinese technology stocks, and underweighting commodities. It notes that both gold and global stocks have seen significant increases, and the key for 2026 will be whether the bull markets in gold and stocks can continue. The article summarizes the switching patterns of major asset classes and emphasizes the importance of identifying the peak of the bull market in Chinese stocks and gold. It identifies economic and policy signals as the most effective indicators for Chinese stocks, while gold peaks are more dependent on Federal Reserve policies [8][10]. Macroeconomy - Since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, leading AI companies in the US have significantly outperformed the overall market. Similarly, Chinese AI leaders have also shown strong performance in the Hong Kong market. Despite rapid earnings growth for these companies, the risk premium remains at a low level, indicating optimistic investor sentiment. The article discusses the ongoing debate about the potential bubble in AI-related asset prices, focusing on the relationship between asset prices, innovation, and macroeconomic factors [10][12]. Quantitative & ESG - The report analyzes the calendar effects in the A-share market, focusing on the performance of mainstream styles and their cyclical patterns. Key conclusions include that growth and small-cap styles are significantly influenced by the timing of earnings disclosures, with growth stocks attracting more attention during busy reporting periods. Additionally, high dividend announcements and record dates can temporarily affect the performance of dividend styles. Institutional investors exhibit seasonal risk preference changes, favoring growth styles mid-year and defensive strategies towards year-end [13][15]. Global Research - The global economy and markets have shown unexpected resilience in 2025, despite significant trade tensions. However, there is notable divergence across industries and regions. The article predicts that Japan's economic growth may continue to exceed potential GDP in 2026. Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, is expected to benefit from industrial expansion, upstream mining investments, and diversification of global supply chains [16][17].

当地时间11月21日，美股三大指数收盘集体上涨，道琼斯指数上涨493.15点，涨幅1.08%；标普500指数涨0.98%；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.88%。 大型科技股涨跌互现，谷歌涨超3%，英特尔涨超2%，苹果、亚马逊涨超1%，甲骨文跌超5%，奈飞、微软、AMD超1%，特斯拉跌近1%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.23%。蔚来涨超3%，哔哩哔哩、理想汽车涨超2%，京东、小鹏汽车涨超1%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.71%，报14972点。 国际油价21日下跌。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌94美分，收于每桶58.06美元，跌幅为1.59%；1月交货的伦敦布伦特 原油期货价格下跌82美分，收于每桶62.56美元，跌幅为1.29%。 11月21日，比特币价格一度跌至80553美元，尽管纽约时段尾盘反弹，但较10月初创下的12.6万美元历史高位依旧下跌超过30%。这轮暴跌使比特币11月跌 幅达到约25%，为2022年以来的最差表现。 截至11月22日发稿，比特币跌幅收窄，报84944.56美元，跌幅1.95%，短线较低点反弹超4000美元。 据CoinGlass数据 ...

US stocks climbed on Friday to close a turbulent session in the green amid rising optimism for a December interest rate cut, while bitcoin (BTC-USD) kept tumbling amid a brutal stretch for cryptocurrencies. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed the day up right around 0.9% and 1%, respectively, after seesawing back and forth early in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained around 1.1%, or just shy of 500 points. US equities perked up early Frida ...

Core Insights - The current AI hype is being compared to the internet bubble of the late 1990s, with Goldman Sachs highlighting five warning signals that resemble those seen before the internet bubble burst [5][10]. Group 1: Warning Signals Identified by Goldman Sachs - The first signal is peak investment spending, with capital expenditures for the five major tech giants projected to reach $533 billion by 2026, up from 3% of GDP in 1995 to 4.5% in 2000 [5]. - The second signal indicates a decline in corporate profits, with macro-level profit growth showing signs of fatigue despite stable profit margins [5]. - The third signal is the rapid rise in corporate debt, exemplified by Meta raising $30 billion through bond issuance to support its AI spending plans [6]. - The fourth signal is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut in October and expectations for another cut in December [7]. - The fifth signal is the widening credit spread, which has increased from 2.76% to 3.15% for U.S. high-yield bonds, indicating a trend despite still being at low levels [8]. Group 2: Comparison with the Internet Bubble - Unlike the internet bubble, the current AI hype does not exhibit key macroeconomic imbalances, as corporate profitability remains solid and financial health is relatively stable [10]. - The net profit margin for the AI industry stands at 27.7%, contrasting sharply with the 14% profitability of ".com" companies during the internet bubble [10]. - Valuation metrics differ significantly, with the forward P/E ratio for the Nasdaq 100 at 26.7 compared to 60 during the internet bubble [10]. Group 3: Historical Lessons from the Internet Bubble - The internet bubble saw 68% of Nasdaq tech stocks unprofitable, while 72% of private AI companies are currently unprofitable [11]. - The average valuation for private AI companies is 35 times sales, compared to 28 times during the internet bubble [11]. - Companies that survived the internet bubble, like Amazon, adapted through innovation and diversification, highlighting the importance of sustainable business models [13]. Group 4: Current AI Investment Landscape - Despite significant investments in generative AI, 95% of organizations report negligible returns, indicating a disconnect between investment and actual benefits [15]. - Many companies treat AI as a plug-and-play tool, failing to recognize its need for continuous learning and adaptation [15]. - Investors are advised to use options for risk management while being cautious of the dual risks in the interest rate market [17]. Group 5: Conclusion on AI Investment - AI is recognized as a major technological shift, but not all participants will benefit, as evidenced by the 95% of AI investments yielding no returns [19]. - Companies that thrive in the AI landscape will likely share traits such as continuous technological advancement, sustainable profit models, and robust governance [19][20]. - The current AI wave presents opportunities, but investors should remain vigilant and selective in their investments [20][21].

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock market experienced a significant decline on November 21, with the Korean Composite Index dropping by 3.79% and major indices like the Shanghai Composite, Hong Kong Hang Seng, and Nikkei 225 all falling over 2% [3][4] - Major tech stocks faced substantial losses, including SoftBank Group down over 10%, SK Hynix down over 8%, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) down over 6% in H-shares and over 3% in A-shares [3][4] Macro Factors - The primary macro factor for the recent adjustment in the Asia-Pacific stock market is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly following conflicting employment data released by the U.S. Labor Department [4][5] - The employment report indicated a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, with 119,000 jobs added in September, far exceeding the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [4] AI Sector Concerns - The ongoing debate regarding the "AI bubble" has contributed to the decline in high-valued tech stocks, with major companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft experiencing notable drops [5][6] - Despite Nvidia's strong quarterly performance, its stock price fell, leading to a broader sell-off in tech stocks across Asia, particularly affecting companies in the supply chain [5][6] Investment Outlook - Long-term prospects for Chinese assets remain positive, driven by structural opportunities in overseas expansion and technological innovation [6][7] - Barclays Research has expressed optimism about Chinese stocks, predicting strong performance through 2025, with the Hong Kong market being one of the best-performing globally this year [6][7] - UBS forecasts a favorable year for the Chinese stock market, supported by factors such as internet, hardware technology, and brokerage sectors, alongside resilience in trade amidst uncertainties [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market crash has raised concerns among investors, with Goldman Sachs providing nine reasons for the capital storm, suggesting that similar panic events in the past have marked historical bottoms [1][4]. Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, the A-share market experienced its largest single-day drop since April 7, with over 2,500 companies declining more than 3% [4]. - The Nasdaq index fell over 5%, with major tech stocks, including Nvidia, suffering significant losses [4]. Investor Sentiment - The sell-off was driven by a fragile emotional foundation among investors, exacerbated by worries over domestic policies and geopolitical tensions, leading to a negative market sentiment that spread from offshore to onshore markets [4][11]. - Despite the downturn, there is a perception among some investors that this could represent a rare buying opportunity [3]. Comparison with Global Markets - A-shares exhibit valuation advantages compared to global markets, with many companies trading below book value and offering dividend yields exceeding 4% [7]. - The decline in the U.S. market was more severe, with concerns over AI bubbles and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions adding to market uncertainty [7]. Historical Context - Historical parallels are drawn with past market crashes, such as those in April 2020 and April 2025, which were triggered by various global events and led to significant market corrections [9][12]. - The current market conditions share similarities with previous "diamond bottoms," characterized by prolonged declines, low price-to-earnings ratios, and widespread pessimism [12]. Foreign Investment Trends - Despite the negative market atmosphere, foreign capital, represented by northbound funds and QFII, continues to show strong interest in A-shares, with net inflows reaching 161.6 billion yuan from January to July 2018 [14]. - The sectors most affected by the recent downturn include consumer electronics, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and AI applications, while defensive assets like rare earths, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals have performed well [14]. Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, professional investors are focusing on fundamentally strong companies with sustainable growth potential, emphasizing the importance of patience in identifying undervalued assets [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) fell over 2% on Friday, dropping below the critical $400 support level as investors reassess valuations in light of hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and a deepening AI bubble [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla's stock price declined by more than 2% on Friday [1] - The stock broke below the significant support level of $400 [1] Group 2: Market Context - Investors are reassessing valuations due to hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve [1] - There is a growing concern regarding the deepening AI bubble impacting market sentiment [1]

同时，Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai在该会议上承认AI泡沫担忧，但强调投资不足的风险更大。他指出， 如果有更多算力支持，谷歌云业务的表现可以更出色。财报显示，该业务三季度营收同比增长34%至逾 150亿美元。 算力瓶颈制约产品推广 谷歌云AI基础设施负责人Amin Vahdat在11月6日的全员会议上透露，为了满足对人工智能服务的需求， 公司必须每6个月将计算能力翻倍，并预计未来4-5年内需要实现1000倍的算力增长。 据媒体报道，Vahdat在会议上强调"AI基础设施竞争是AI竞赛中最关键，也是最昂贵的部分"。谷歌母公 司Alphabet今年已两次上调资本支出预期至910亿-930亿美元，并预告2026年将"显著增加"投资。包括微 软、亚马逊和Meta在内的四大云服务商今年预计合计支出将超过3800亿美元。 Vahdat在全员会议中，明确提出了每6个月翻倍算力的目标。他表示，谷歌的目标不是在支出上超越竞 争对手，而是提供"更可靠、更高性能、更可扩展"的基础设施。 对此，Pichai重申了此前观点，即风险点在于投资力度不足。他称： "我承认在这些时刻总是很困难，因为投资不足的风险很高。事 ...

英伟达在昨天公布了 2026 财年第 3 财季财报，显示创纪录营收 570 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 4057.03 亿元人民币），较去年同期的 350.8 亿美元 （现汇率约合 2496.85 亿元人民币）大幅增长 62%，各项数据均创下历史新高。 与此同时，黄仁勋本人也在外界不断回击逐渐升温的"AI 泡沫"质疑声音，这家公司的股价在昨天开盘跳涨至 195 美元（现汇率约合 1388 元人民币）左 右，随后下跌，收盘时跌至 180.64 美元（现汇率约合 1286 元人民币）。#英伟达财报#（IT之家） 11 月 21 日消息，据《商业内幕》今天报道，英伟达创始人兼 CEO 黄仁勋在昨天的一次全体会议上，就公司的财报表现发表讲话。根据《商业内幕》获 取的会议录音，黄仁勋表示，市场并不欣赏英伟达的亮眼成绩，在"AI 泡沫"的讨论背景下，公司无论如何都会陷入"怎么都赢不了"的舆论处境。 ...

当前，美股市场正深陷对"AI泡沫"的担忧之中。尽管英伟达公布的强劲财报一度驱散市场阴霾，但乐观 情绪未能延续，美股指数迅速调头向下。隔夜交易中，美股遭遇全线抛售，标普500指数收跌1.56%， 纳斯达克指数更是大幅下挫2.16%，凸显出市场脆弱性。 面对当前市场环境，Citadel Securities股票及衍生品策略主管Scott Rubner警示，投资者正在面对一道由 十大风险因素构筑的"忧虑之墙"。这些风险因素涵盖估值、政策、流动性和市场结构等多个关键领 域，其中多项指标已发出明确预警，预示着美股市场可能面临更为严峻的考验。 第一、AI投资情绪趋于饱和。当前人工智能的市场叙事已高度趋同，投资情绪明显即将见顶。随着市 场对AI题材的审美疲劳，资金正从泛概念炒作向具备技术壁垒和商业化能力的行业龙头集中。这一轮 情绪冷却反而会加速行业出清，促使资源向龙头企业倾斜，形成"强者恒强"的格局。 与此同时，在AI热潮掩盖下，信贷市场正面临潜在压力。持续高利率环境的影响正在显现，企业融资 成本不断攀升，银行信贷标准持续收紧。这种融资条件的收紧虽然尚未引发市场大幅波动，但若信贷环 境进一步恶化，不仅会制约AI企业的融资能 ...