Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant implications of tariff increases proposed by the Trump administration, suggesting that it could lead to a major economic event comparable to the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971 [3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The article references the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods, resulting in an average tariff increase of about 20% [3]. - The consequences of the 1930 tariff included a 66% decline in global trade from 1929 to 1934, leading to the Great Depression in the United States and economic crises worldwide [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Situation - The current U.S. national debt exceeds $36 trillion, which is 120% of the projected GDP for 2024, with annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion against a fiscal revenue of $4.9 trillion [4]. - The proposed tariff increases could generate an additional $300 billion to $600 billion in revenue for the U.S. government annually, which is seen as a critical factor driving the tariff strategy [4]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The article argues that the U.S. is moving towards a trend of de-globalization, as it attempts to protect its manufacturing sector in response to China's significant market share in global manufacturing [5]. - The imposition of high tariffs may lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, echoing historical patterns where such actions resulted in broader economic downturns [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article advises investors to remain calm and avoid emotional decision-making, suggesting that the current market environment is volatile and unpredictable [7]. - It highlights the importance of focusing on dividend-paying ETFs and being cautious with sectors that have high energy weightings, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [7][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The author expresses optimism about 2025 being a significant trading year, encouraging investors to maintain patience and excitement for potential investment opportunities [9].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 开年以来，"Deepseek"触发中美科技此消彼长叙事，恒生科技为代表的中国科技资产领涨全球，而美股&美元表 现不佳。战略层面："Deepseek"带来中国科技资产的价值重估，但并未逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋 势）三大底层逻辑，因此，全球资产配置仍然是反脆弱的"全球杠铃策略"。而战术层面："全球杠铃策略"应该如何调整，来 应对"东升西落"的新叙事？ ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Deepseek" narrative on global asset allocation, emphasizing the rise of Chinese technology assets while U.S. stocks and the dollar perform poorly. It suggests a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation to navigate the changing dynamics of East rising and West declining [3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Stocks - U.S. stocks are expected to shift from low volatility to high volatility, leading to a reduction in their weight in asset allocation. The S&P 500 has maintained low volatility due to low correlation among its components, driven by the divergence between tech and non-tech stocks under the AI narrative [4][15]. - By 2025, factors such as mean reversion, recession pressures, and the breaking of the current AI trend will likely increase the correlation among S&P 500 stocks, resulting in higher volatility and necessitating a decrease in U.S. stock allocation [16][15]. Group 2: Chinese Stocks - Short-term, the Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of exhaustion after six consecutive weeks of gains, suggesting a wait for policy implementation and validation of the tech narrative. Historical data indicates that after such streaks, it is advisable to focus on lagging sectors like banks and utilities rather than chasing leading stocks [5][20]. - Long-term, the current rally in Chinese stocks is deemed healthier compared to previous policy-driven credit pulses. The weight of Chinese tech assets in portfolios should be increased, as the valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks remains historically high, indicating potential for narrowing [5][24]. Group 3: Chinese Government Bonds - Chinese government bonds have not transitioned to a bearish phase but require more attention to timing due to increased volatility. The shift from passive to active deleveraging in the private sector suggests that the downward space for bond yields will narrow [6][43]. - The current yield on 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.8%, pricing in a 20 basis point rate cut. A trading range of 1.6% to 1.9% is recommended for core transactions [6][44].

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that de-globalization is a significant trend driving stagflation, with tariffs and de-globalization leading to inefficiencies and potential reductions in actual economic growth rates, alongside increased inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - UBS estimates that imposing a 60% tariff on 75% of Chinese goods exported to the U.S. and a 10% tariff on goods from other countries could result in a global GDP decline of 0.5% [1] - Inflationary pressures are expected to be volatile, primarily affecting the U.S. economy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond and stock markets are adjusting to the anticipated tariff increases, with U.S. 10-year real yields dropping by 30-50 basis points and 2-year inflation expectations rising by 70 basis points since January [5] - Tariff-sensitive stocks in the U.S. have underperformed the broader market by 17%, while in Europe, the underperformance is 9% [5] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Analysts in the U.S. are broadly downgrading revenue and earnings growth expectations for tariff-sensitive sectors such as durable goods, automotive, and retail [5] - In Europe, analysts maintain resilient expectations for sectors like automotive, luxury goods, and pharmaceuticals, which are also sensitive to tariffs [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - UBS suggests that hard assets (gold and energy) are likely to outperform other asset classes due to rising credit and yield risk premiums, with a projected 3% decline in the S&P 500 index [8] - Investors are advised to consider selling put options on gold ETFs (GDX.US) and buying put options on financial sector ETFs (XLF.US) to "harden" risk exposure [8] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - UBS believes that while the European market shows resilience, cyclical investors face risks, particularly as tariff-sensitive stocks may decline further by 10% due to lowered earnings expectations [9] - The impact of de-globalization is expected to lead to lower actual economic growth rates, increased inflation expectations, and heightened risk premiums associated with corporate profit growth [12]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly precious metals report dated March 31, 2025, focusing on gold price trends and influencing factors [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In Q1, gold prices continued to rise, with New York gold rising from around $2,650 at the beginning of the year to around $3,100 at the end of the quarter, and Shanghai gold rising from around 620 to 720. The upward momentum mainly comes from three aspects: rising global inflation expectations due to US tariff hikes, increasing US economic recession expectations leading to weakening of the US dollar and US stocks and rising safe - haven demand, and declining US dollar credit, de - globalization, and de - dollarization [5] - In Q2, the US economy is expected to continue to weaken under the background of the tariff war, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may rise. The European economy is expected to improve, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are expected to be weak, with the US dollar possibly breaking below the 100 mark, which will provide upward momentum for gold prices. The continuous progress of the cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine may lead to a large - scale cease - fire agreement, and the easing of geopolitical tensions may put pressure on gold prices. Gold prices in Q2 may show a wide - range volatile and slightly upward trend [6] - In the long term, after Trump took office, he intensively introduced tariff - hiking policies, accelerating the processes of de - globalization and de - dollarization, reducing the US dollar credit, and continuously increasing the global demand for gold as a safe - haven and reserve. During the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, and the continuous increase in ETF demand will also drive gold prices up. Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the long term [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - No specific content about the weekly trend is provided other than references to related charts 1.2 Indicator Gains and Losses - From March 21 to March 28, COMEX gold rose from $3,028.20 to $3,118.00, a 2.97% increase; COMEX silver rose from $33.53 to $34.82, a 3.85% increase; SHFE gold futures rose from 706.96 to 722.80, a 2.24% increase; SHFE silver futures rose from 8,207.00 to 8,512.00, a 3.72% increase. The US dollar index decreased by 0.12%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB increased by 0.16%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.02, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.53%, and the US crude oil continuous contract increased by 1.10%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.85%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.42%. SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.43, and iShare Gold ETF decreased by 0.41 [11] 2. New York Gold Breaks Through $3,100 - Last week, gold prices strengthened again after a strong high - level oscillation. New York gold reached the $3,100 mark, and Shanghai gold reached the 720 mark. The US dollar index and US stocks both showed a trend of rising, then falling, and a second bottom - testing [13] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of March 25, compared with last week, long - position holdings decreased by 5,082 contracts, short - position holdings increased by 3,054 contracts, and net long - position holdings decreased by 8,136 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. In early March, gold prices rebounded after hitting the bottom, but the net non - commercial long - position holdings on COMEX continued to decline, indicating strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions [17] - In Q1, the holdings of major global gold ETFs increased significantly, especially after Trump took office, which largely reflects the rising safe - haven demand in the context of de - globalization [18] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the upward trend of gold prices in Q1, the influencing factors, the expected performance of gold prices in Q2, and the long - term upward trend [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for March show a significant improvement, with EPMI rising 10.6 points to 59.6, marking a seasonal high, and BCI increasing 2 points to 54.8, the highest since June 2023, indicating a potential economic recovery starting from late 2024 [1][5][9]. Economic Indicators - The EPMI data for March indicates a strong upward trend, reaching 59.6, which is the second-highest level for March since 2019, suggesting improved economic conditions [4][5]. - The BCI also reflects a positive economic rhythm, with projections indicating initial recovery in late 2024, followed by a second dip in December and continued improvement in early 2025 [5][9]. Corporate Revenue and Profitability - The improvement in economic sentiment is expected to positively impact corporate revenues, as indicated by the rise in the sales expectation index for March. However, profitability is influenced by both volume and pricing, with a noted decline in the profit expectation index due to falling intermediate goods prices [3][6]. Price Trends - The consumer price forward index continues to rise, reaching a new high since the rebound began, indicating an improving trend in consumer prices. In contrast, the intermediate goods price index has not shown clear signs of recovery, with a decline observed in March after a brief rebound in February [6][7]. Inventory and Financing Environment - Inventory indicators have shown an upward trend, reflecting both proactive and reactive inventory adjustments by industrial enterprises. The BCI inventory forward index aligns with economic sentiment, primarily indicating proactive inventory replenishment [2][7]. - The financing environment index saw significant improvement in March, attributed to a more accommodative monetary policy and increased credit support for private and small enterprises [7][8]. Investment Sentiment - There are concerns regarding investment willingness, as the investment and hiring forward indices showed a decline in March, potentially linked to rising trade protectionism and external uncertainties, such as the recent tariff increases by the U.S. on Chinese products [8][9].

以下文章来源于出海潜望 ，作者周月明 出海潜望 . 放弃幻想，逆全球化已成既定事实 特朗普重返白宫，中国出海企业在北美市场正面临一场前所未有的"生存保卫战"。贸易保护主义明显抬头，中美关系复杂多变...这些都让曾经看似广 阔的北美市场充满了不确定性。 但挑战背后往往蕴含新的机遇。如何在特朗普2.0时代把握北美市场新机会？如何在变局中寻找破局之道？ 3月27日下午，虎嗅邀请了五位资深专家，分别从宏观政策、产品创新、线下渠道布局、TikTok布局以及数据合规环节，分享独到观察与实战经验， 为出海企业提供切实可行的应对之策。 凌晨3点，浙江一家主营袜子出口的企业车间内，负责人李天盯着电脑屏幕上的未读邮件，眉头紧锁。美国老客户发来邮件要求"共同承担新增关 税"，否则将取消季度订单。这已是本月第三个提出类似要求的客户。 "现在做跨境就像在雷区跳舞，政策、物流、平台规则随时可能引爆。"李天的苦笑背后，折射出中国出海企业2025开年就面临的集体困境：2025年2 月4日，特朗普宣布美国对中国输美商品加征10%关税，一个月后，关税再次从10%提升至20%。 "当前出海企业正遭遇"政策+物流+消费习惯"的复合型冲击。"深圳电子 ...

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ：（3.10-3.18），全球大类资产表现分化，权益>大宗>债券。全球大类资产交易 主线仍然围绕"美国衰退交易"，但程度较3月初有所缓和：10Y美债利率和美元指数延续回落趋势但幅度显著缓和，美 股仍弱于全球股市但下跌幅度同样有所缓和。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 特朗普2.0 难以逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋势）三大底层逻辑，甚至一定程度上加大全球政治经济不确 定性。战略层面，全球资产配置仍是反脆弱的"杠铃策略"。一端是确定性稳健资产：（1）债券：债务收缩期， 中国利率债调整后再次迎来配置良机；（2）权益：债务收缩期，战略配置中资股杠铃策略（红利+科技）、泛东 南亚股市；（3）另类：黄金的超国家主权信用价值是应对逆全球化新投资范式的必需配置。另一端是高收益高 波动资产：把握AI产业趋势下的美股及中国AI产业链基础设施建设向下游软件应用扩散的丰富机会。特朗普上台 后的政策节 ...

Industrial Sector - The operating rates of various industrial sectors are generally higher than the same period last year, with national high furnace operating rates increasing by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year as of the second week of March [1][6] - The operating rate of benzene-styrene increased by 15.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of PVC saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points [1][6] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires grew by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while PTA weaving machine load rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 6.2 percentage points [1][6] Construction Sector - The funding availability rate for construction projects continues to improve, reaching 57.2% as of March 11, up 0.75 percentage points from the end of February [2][7] - Cement dispatch rates recorded 33.7%, a year-on-year increase of 4.2 percentage points, while asphalt operating rates fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] Transportation Sector - Subway passenger volumes in major cities averaged 61.99 million trips from March 1 to March 17, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2][8] - Domestic flight execution rates averaged 12,063 flights per day, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, while international flights saw a significant increase of 20.1% [2][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows positive transaction conditions, with average daily transaction areas in 30 major cities increasing by 11.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year increases of 47.1%, 56.3%, and 65.1%, respectively [2][10] Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger cars in early March showed a year-on-year growth of 14%, significantly higher than the cumulative growth of 1% in January and February [2][11] - Wholesale sales increased by 26% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales surged by 44% [2][12] Home Appliances - Offline sales of home appliances maintain relatively high growth rates, with air conditioning and washing machine sales showing mixed results [2][12][13] - The ongoing policy support for replacing old appliances is expected to sustain growth momentum in the home appliance sector [2][12] Container Shipping - Container throughput remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% from March 2 to March 16 [2][13] - Port cargo throughput also showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating stable export conditions [2][13] Price Trends - Food prices are in line with seasonal trends, while industrial product prices remain relatively stable, with the BPI index at 905 points as of March 18 [2][14] - The national average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices saw a decline of 2.0% [2][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and potential disruptive trade policies from the Trump administration [1][3]. - The pricing framework of gold is outlined, highlighting its financial attributes, safe-haven characteristics, and monetary properties, which are significantly influenced by factors such as the 10Y U.S. Treasury real interest rates and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit [1]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the company has consistently suggested opportunities for gold allocation, noting that gold prices have reached new highs [1]. Group 2 - The article discusses the long-term outlook for gold, suggesting that ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt and geopolitical risks will continue to support gold prices, reinforcing the belief in gold as a sovereign credit alternative [3]. - The demand for gold from central banks is mentioned as a supportive factor for gold prices in the medium to long term, alongside the potential erosion of U.S. dollar credit due to debt issues [3].