Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese bond market, particularly focusing on the impact of Sino-U.S. trade relations and various pressures on the market in June 2025 [1][4][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Short-term Pressures**: The bond market faces significant pressures from the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs), the configuration of ultra-long-term special government bonds, and banks' need to realize profits at the end of the half-year. In June, the maturity of CDs exceeds 4 trillion yuan, creating substantial issuance pressure [1][4]. - **Mid-term Optimism**: There are positive mid-term factors, such as the expected reduction in the insurance product's preset interest rates and the anticipated resumption of government bond trading by the central bank, which may offset the weakening effects of reserve requirement ratio cuts [1][5][11]. - **Interest Rate Environment**: The interest rate environment in June is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75%, with a potential peak around 1.8%. The most significant variable affecting this is the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations [3][19]. - **Market Sentiment**: If ultra-long-term special government bonds continue to fail to attract bids, it could severely deteriorate market sentiment, reminiscent of the "wolf is coming" effect [1][7]. - **Banking Behavior**: Banks are likely to continue selling older bonds to realize profits throughout June, which may exert additional selling pressure on the bond market, especially given the poor earnings in the first quarter of the year [8][9]. Additional Important Content - **Demand for Long-term Bonds**: The insurance industry, with its long asset-liability structure, is expected to maintain a strong demand for long-term bonds, particularly as overall interest rates decline [10]. - **Central Bank Actions**: The central bank's resumption of government bond trading is confirmed, with expectations of improving market sentiment in June and July [11]. - **Currency Dynamics**: The weakening of the U.S. dollar index and reduced pressure on the RMB exchange rate are providing some support to the bond market [12]. - **Market Factors**: Short-term factors include negative interest rates on pure bonds and the need for banks to meet liquidity demands at the end of the half-year, while mid-term factors include the central bank's actions and the reduced depreciation space for the RMB [13]. - **Key Observations for CDs**: The issuance of CDs in June is critical; if the primary issuance does not reach 3 trillion yuan by mid-June, there will be significant redemption pressure, potentially pushing rates up to 1.8% [14][19]. - **Investment Recommendations**: It is advised to consider purchasing ultra-long-term government bonds in mid to late June, as market sentiment is expected to be high, presenting a favorable trading window [2][15][16]. Overall Market Expectations - The overall expectation for the bond market in 2025 is cautious optimism, with potential for new lows in the third quarter and improved conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by previous net purchases of government bonds by the central bank [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures first rose and then fluctuated. The rise was mainly due to the policy benefits brought by the simultaneous reduction of LPR and deposit rates, which strengthened the market's expectation of a further decline in the interest rate center, boosting medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds and short - term Treasury bond futures. However, as policies were implemented, combined with increased speculation on Sino - US negotiations and future economic data, risk appetite recovered, increasing the upward pressure on long - bond yields and causing the futures bond trend to become more differentiated and volatile. Additionally, the approaching supply of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds on the fiscal side intensified market concerns about duration pressure. Overall, the subsequent trend still depends on economic data performance and fiscal policy rhythm [3]. - For the trading strategy, the 2509 contract is neutral in the context of falling repo rates and fluctuating Treasury bond futures prices. Traders are advised to pay attention to the widening of the basis. In terms of hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a 1.00% increase (+14.29%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a 0.50% increase (+1.02%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.23, with a 0.53 increase (+0.54%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1980, with a 0.008 increase (+0.12%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with a 0.10 decrease (-6.31%); DR007 was 1.55, with a 0.11 decrease (-6.90%); R007 was 1.76, with a 0.21 decrease (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.69, with a 0.01 increase (+0.33%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a 0.00 increase (+0.33%) [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On 2025 - 06 - 03, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.69 yuan, and 119.45 yuan respectively. The price changes were - 0.04%, - 0.04%, - 0.03%, and +0.03% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis**: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.070 yuan, - 0.052 yuan, - 0.045 yuan, and - 0.162 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: On 2025 - 06 - 03, the central bank conducted a 454.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - **Money Market Repo Rates**: The main - term repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.410%, 1.515%, 1.579%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repo rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report provides figures on the inter - period spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, including (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [35][40][41][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][46][57]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][56][59]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [64][69]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [71][77][79].

6月3日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有记者提问，美方近期不断声称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸 会谈共识，采取一系列消极行动。请问中方对此有何回应？林剑指出，美方在毫无事实根据的情况下， 对中方抹黑指责，出台对华芯片出口管制，暂停对华芯片设计、软件销售，宣布撤销中国留学生签证等 极端打压措施，严重破坏日内瓦共识，也损害了中方正当权益。中方对此坚决反对，已提出严正交涉。 (北京日报) ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce firmly rejects the U.S. accusations of violating the consensus reached during the Geneva trade talks, emphasizing that China has adhered to the agreements made [1][2] - Following the Geneva talks, China suspended or canceled certain tariffs and non-tariff measures against the U.S., demonstrating a commitment to the consensus [1][2] - In contrast, the U.S. has implemented several discriminatory measures against China, including restrictions on semiconductor design software and key technologies, which contradict the agreements made during the Geneva talks [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. government's actions are perceived as part of a radical decoupling movement aimed at disrupting the close commercial ties between the two largest economies [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stresses the importance of mutual respect and equal consultation in handling U.S.-China relations, urging the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices [3][4] - The outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations is seen as having significant implications beyond bilateral relations, affecting the broader Asian economy [4]

本文字数：585，阅读时长大约1分钟 6月2日，据商务部网站，有记者问：近日，美方不断有消息称，中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共 识，请问商务部对此有何评价? 答: 中方注意到有关情况。5月12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》后，中方按照 联合声明达成的共识，取消或暂停了针对美"对等关税"采取的相关关税和非关税措施。中方本着负 责任的态度，认真对待、严格落实、积极维护日内瓦经贸会谈共识。中方维护权益是坚定的，落实共 识是诚信的。反观美方，在日内瓦经贸会谈后，陆续新增出台多项对华歧视性限制措施,包括发布AI 芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件（EDA）销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。这些做法 严重违背两国元首1月17日通话共识，严重破坏日内瓦经贸会谈既有共识，严重损害中方正当权益。 美单方面不断挑起新的经贸摩擦，加剧双边经贸关系的不确定性、不稳定性，不仅不反思自身，反而 倒打一耙，无端指责中方违反共识，这严重背离事实。中方坚决拒绝无理指责。 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》是双方在相互尊重、平等协商原则下达成的重要共识，成果来之不 易。我们敦促美方与中方相向而行，立即纠正有关错误做法，共同维护日内瓦 ...

有记者问：近日，美方不断有消息称，中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识，请问商务部对此有何评价? 答: 中方注意到有关情况。5月12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》后，中方按照联 合声明达成的共识，取消或暂停了针对美"对等关税"采取的相关关税和非关税措施。中方本着负责任的 态度，认真对待、严格落实、积极维护日内瓦经贸会谈共识。中方维护权益是坚定的，落实共识是诚信 的。反观美方，在日内瓦经贸会谈后，陆续新增出台多项对华歧视性限制措施,包括发布AI芯片出口管 制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件(EDA)销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。这些做法严重违背两国元首 1月17日通话共识，严重破坏日内瓦经贸会谈既有共识，严重损害中方正当权益。美单方面不断挑起新 的经贸摩擦，加剧双边经贸关系的不确定性、不稳定性，不仅不反思自身，反而倒打一耙，无端指责中 方违反共识，这严重背离事实。中方坚决拒绝无理指责。 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》是双方在相互尊重、平等协商原则下达成的重要共识，成果来之不 易。我们敦促美方与中方相向而行，立即纠正有关错误做法，共同维护日内瓦经贸会谈共识，推动中美 经贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展。如美方一 ...

据北晚在线报道，日前，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。对全球市场来说，这都是一 个大消息，中美资本市场都受消息影响而提振。 根据最近美国媒体的报道，美国总统特朗普最近在公开场合，提到中国的次数越来越多，且多次对外表达想要访华的意愿。然而，特朗普的请求却"石沉 大海"，并没有得到中方的积极回应。对此，有分析认为，领导人出访属于重大外交事件，特别是访问中国这种万众瞩目的大事件。如果特朗普真的想要 来中国，就应该通过正常的外交流程获得许可，遵守基本的外交惯例，而不是三天两头靠喊话，"耍嘴皮子"。 值得注意的是，美国商务部网站调整了其5月12日发布的AI芯片出口管制指南新闻稿相关表述，将"在世界任何地方使用华为昇腾芯片均违反美国出口管制 法规"调整为"警告业界使用中国先进计算机芯片，包括特定华为昇腾芯片的风险"。商务部表示，美方行为严重破坏中美日内瓦高层会谈共识，要求美方 纠偏纠错。中方注意到，近日美方对指南新闻稿相关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of cooperation between the business communities of China and the United States, highlighting a mutual willingness to engage in economic collaboration despite existing trade tensions [1][2][4]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed optimism about China's economic prospects and a desire to strengthen partnerships with Chinese counterparts during his visit [2][4]. - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) plans to create more platforms for communication between Chinese and global business communities, particularly through the upcoming third Chain Expo [1][4]. Group 2 - The global trade friction index reached a high of 126 in March, with trade friction measures involving an amount that increased by 26.1% year-on-year and 152.3% month-on-month [5]. - The United States and India have the highest global trade friction indices among 20 monitored countries, with the U.S. consistently leading in the number of trade friction measures for nine consecutive months [5][6]. - In terms of industry, the transportation equipment sector has the highest trade friction index, with significant conflicts also noted in electronics, light industry, chemicals, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [5][6].

28日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者提问称，我们注意到，2025年全球贸易投资促进峰会 在北京举办期间，中国美国商会会长何迈可表示，关税战就像一场"事实验证"，证明中国是美国重要的 商品市场，也是美国商品重要的供应来源，摩根大通等多家美国企业表示，将持续在华投资，深耕中国 市场，参与中国经济增长和创新。发言人对此有何评论？对此毛宁表示，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共 赢，作为全球体量最大的两个经济体，经贸合作为两国企业和消费者带来了实实在在的利益。中美日内 瓦经贸会谈之后，美国采购商的订单激增，中美航运市场一船难求，充分反映了两国之间巨大的双向需 求，保护主义没有出路，我们欢迎包括美国企业在内的各国企业，在中国经营发展深化合作，共创机 遇，共享未来。(环球网) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].