Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a weekly increase of 7.08%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.52 percentage points [1][9]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical commodities, recommending industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as the steel sector [2][21]. - The government work report for 2025 sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and improve macroeconomic sentiment [2][21]. - Key price movements include a significant drop in alumina prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of electrolytic aluminum producers. The report anticipates a continued upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices due to a tight supply situation [2][22]. - The report highlights the potential for copper prices to rise amid "re-inflation" expectations, with a focus on the supply dynamics and the possibility of reduced production in the smelting sector [2][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at +7.08%. Industrial metals increased by 8.43%, precious metals by 6.48%, and energy metals by 4.58% [1][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Huayu Mining (+47.77%) and Xinweiling (+45.12%), while the worst performers were Liyuan Co. (-8.97%) and *ST Zhongrun (-8.88%) [1][9]. Metal Prices & Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $9,602.00 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week, while domestic prices were at ¥78,320.00 per ton, up 1.93% [16][27]. - Aluminum prices increased to $2,689.00 per ton on the LME, a rise of 3.26%, with domestic prices at ¥20,835.00 per ton, up 0.94% [25][27]. - Zinc prices also saw an increase, with LME prices at $2,882.00 per ton, up 3.00% [17][27]. Core Insights Update and Key Stock Tracking - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending investments in copper and aluminum due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and improving demand [2][22]. - The report notes that the price of strategic metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxide has stabilized, with a current price of ¥460,900.00 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.44% [53][54].

Group 1 - The article discusses the typical path of inflation initiation, highlighting the transition from financial attributes to commodity attributes [2][3] - The first stage of inflation sees precious metals and rare metals leading the charge, with gold being particularly sensitive to monetary policy and risk aversion [2][3] - The second stage involves energy prices, particularly oil and coal, which rise due to direct cost push, substitution effects, and geopolitical events [4][5] Group 2 - The third stage features agricultural products and chemical products experiencing delayed price increases, driven by rising costs of fertilizers linked to energy prices and extreme weather conditions [6][7] - The fourth stage sees inflation spreading to end consumer prices through the transmission from PPI to CPI, influenced by rising costs in manufacturing and services [8][9] Group 3 - Historical cycles show different paths of inflation transmission based on driving factors, with examples including monetary easing, supply shocks, demand pull, and policy interventions [10][11] - Precious metals often lead in monetary easing cycles, while agricultural products may rise concurrently with energy during supply shocks [10][11] Group 4 - The article outlines the underlying logic of transmission paths, emphasizing the sensitivity of financial attributes and the hierarchical structure of the supply chain [12][13] - The transmission speed from upstream to downstream typically takes 3-6 months, but can be interrupted by excess capacity or weak demand in the midstream [14] Group 5 - Current cycles are characterized by the dual effects of new energy transitions and geopolitical conflicts, reshaping traditional inflation paths [15][16] - The article notes the impact of supply chain weaponization due to geopolitical tensions, leading to price volatility in critical minerals [16] Group 6 - Key monitoring indicators for inflation include gold prices, copper-gold ratios, and oil inventories, while lagging indicators include CPI and PPI transmission rates [18] - The article suggests using a modified version of the Merrill Lynch clock for cycle positioning, recommending different asset allocations based on economic phases [19] Group 7 - The conclusion emphasizes the dynamic nature of inflation transmission paths, which can be summarized as "monetary signals → supply shocks → cost transmission → widespread diffusion," while stressing the importance of a comprehensive analysis framework [20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the financial, technology, and electricity sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [15][17]. Core Insights - The global economic landscape shows that high-income countries contribute significantly to GDP growth, with China accounting for approximately 30% of global GDP increment over the past decade [3][5]. - The report highlights a shift from a U.S.-centric market to a more diversified investment approach, focusing on non-U.S. developed markets and selective emerging markets [8][10]. - The technology sector is expected to benefit from advancements in AI and software, with a particular emphasis on companies that can leverage AI for cost reduction and efficiency [15][17]. - Emerging markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia are identified as key areas for potential growth, with Vietnam projected to maintain a GDP growth rate above 10% by 2026 [12][14]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Overview - The distribution of global population and GDP shows that OECD countries account for 17% of the world's population but 61% of global GDP, while China’s GDP per capita is comparable to the world average [1][2]. - The growth rates of various income groups indicate that high-income countries have a compound growth rate of 3% over the past decade, while China has achieved 6% [3][4]. Sector Analysis - The financial sector is expected to perform well in 2024, driven by regulatory easing and a favorable interest rate environment [15]. - The technology sector is highlighted for its potential in AI applications, with a focus on software solutions that enhance operational efficiency [15][17]. - The electricity sector is projected to see increased demand with limited supply growth, making it a critical area for investment [17]. Emerging Markets Focus - Vietnam is noted for its rapid GDP growth and potential transition from foreign investment-driven growth to domestic demand [12][14]. - Indonesia is characterized as a large internal market with low dependency on U.S. exports, expected to maintain a GDP growth rate of over 5% [13]. - Saudi Arabia is recognized for its significant economic size in the Middle East and ongoing infrastructure development, supporting a growth rate of 4% to 5% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of DeepSeek and Trump's tariffs on global asset volatility, investor sentiment, and the macroeconomic narrative between China and the U.S. It highlights the interconnection between AI trends and tariff policies, emphasizing their influence on the financial and current accounts of both economies [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Economic and Asset Trends - The U.S. has maintained a long-term current account deficit while achieving financial account surpluses, primarily due to low savings rates and the dollar's privileged status [2][3]. - Since the pandemic, fiscal expansion has led to an increase in the current account deficit, while the AI trend has attracted capital inflows, supporting the dollar and the economy [2][4]. - The financial account's inflow is crucial for the U.S. economy, with AI being a key driver of this trend, especially since 2023 [2][20]. Group 2: China’s Economic Dynamics - China has experienced a long-term current account surplus since joining the WTO, but its financial account has seen capital outflows, indicating a reliance on external demand [13][18]. - The current economic model in China, which relies on current account surpluses for growth, faces challenges due to external pressures such as tariffs and weakening external demand [23][24]. - The need for domestic demand stimulation and structural reforms is emphasized to counterbalance the external challenges and attract capital inflows [23][24]. Group 3: Interconnection of U.S. and China Accounts - The article outlines how the financial account (AI) and current account (tariffs) are interconnected, with the financial account's performance being critical for future economic trends in both countries [20][22]. - For the U.S., the sustainability of capital inflows is contingent on the strength of the AI sector, while for China, the focus should be on stimulating domestic demand to improve the financial account [20][22]. - The potential for a shift in the global investment landscape is highlighted, with the AI narrative playing a pivotal role in determining the flow of capital between the two economies [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Zijin Mining [6][7]. Core Views - Zijin Mining is positioned as a leading global mining company with significant reserves of copper, gold, lithium, and molybdenum. The company aims to achieve its key economic targets two years ahead of schedule, with copper production expected to reach 1.5-1.6 million tons and gold production 1-1.1 million tons by 2028 [6][7]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth potential, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% for copper and 8% for gold production over the past decade [34][38]. - Zijin Mining's strategy includes both external acquisitions and internal exploration, leading to rapid resource growth. The company has successfully acquired several mines during periods of low commodity prices, enhancing its production capacity [6][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Copper and Gold Leader - The company ranks fifth globally in copper production and seventh in gold production, with significant reserves of 32.9 million tons of copper and 1,119.6 tons of gold as of mid-2024 [15][20]. - The company has ambitious plans to increase its production capacity significantly by 2028, aiming for a total output of 1.5-1.6 million tons of copper and 100-110 tons of gold [26][27]. 2. Strong Low-Grade Ore Processing and Large-Scale Construction - Zijin Mining has a mature experience in low-grade ore mining and a strong capability in integrated large-scale development, which allows for shorter construction periods and lower costs [28][29]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in its copper and gold resource volumes, with a 10-year CAGR of approximately 22% for copper and 12% for gold [34][38]. 3. Focus on Copper and Gold Mining Regions - The company is expanding its copper production through several major projects, including the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine and the Kamoa Copper Mine, which are expected to significantly boost output [49][50]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining is actively acquiring and upgrading existing mines, with several projects expected to enhance gold production in the coming years [59][60]. 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of approximately 31.97 billion, 38.89 billion, and 44.39 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 11, and 10 [6][7][22]. - The report highlights a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow increasing from 8.6 billion yuan in 2016 to 36.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [34]. 5. Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical factors and a shift in central bank purchasing behavior, while copper prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints [6][7].

Global Macro Trends - Global stock indices showed divergence from February 24 to March 5, with European and Hong Kong stocks leading gains while U.S. stocks lagged behind [8][9] - U.S. economic data suggests potential stagflation risks, putting pressure on U.S. stocks, while China's government work report indicates a continuation of fiscal stimulus and support for the real estate and stock markets [9][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving investment landscape characterized by three underlying logics: rising anti-globalization, misalignment in debt cycles, and the trend of AI industries [3][10] - The strategy emphasizes a mix of low-risk, stable assets (such as bonds, Chinese equities, and gold) and high-yield, high-volatility assets (such as U.S. stocks and the Chinese AI industry) to maximize returns while providing safety margins [11][10] Focus Data and Events - Key economic indicators and events are scheduled from March 10 to March 21, including China's February M2 growth rate and new RMB loans, which are critical for assessing economic health [12][13] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring global economic data releases and central bank decisions, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [13][12] Focus Charts - The report includes dynamic tracking of global asset classes, reflecting tight dollar liquidity and increasing financial pressure in the U.S. [14][3] - Key indicators such as the LIBOR-OIS spread and the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index are monitored to gauge market conditions and economic expectations [3][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent trade tensions, particularly the U.S. tariffs on imports from China, and their potential impact on global trade dynamics and market behavior [3][4][5]. Group 1: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The recent announcement by the State Council Tariff Commission regarding increased tariffs on certain U.S. imports has led to significant market reactions, particularly in futures contracts [3]. - The futures market interprets these developments as an escalation of the "trade war," which may weaken trade demand further [4]. - The article suggests that while trade tensions may negatively impact trade efficiency, they could paradoxically increase maritime transport demand due to the complexities introduced by tariffs [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The article highlights that changes in tariffs may serve more as a domestic propaganda tool and a bargaining chip in international negotiations, with effects dependent on the comparative strengths of the negotiating parties [5]. - It notes that U.S. consumers are purchasing cheaper goods at an unusual rate, which could be influenced by high inflation and its adverse effects on government approval ratings [5]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the short-term trade disputes between the U.S. and China are relatively independent of the trade demand between China and Europe [6]. - It points out that the use of smaller vessels on U.S. West and East Coast routes, as opposed to larger vessels on China-Europe routes, could lead to inefficiencies in trade logistics [6]. - Recent diplomatic tensions may inadvertently promote the development of China-Europe trade [6]. Group 4: Market Strategies - The article advises a flexible approach to participating in futures markets, particularly regarding contracts 06 and 08, emphasizing the importance of cost management and risk control [7]. - It predicts that the spot market may experience a low point between 1480 and 1650 points during the off-season from February to April, suggesting a cautious outlook on specific contracts [8]. - The article reiterates the strategy of being bullish without taking excessive risks, advocating for a "sell first, buy later" approach in the current market environment [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the global economic outlook for 2025, highlighting the transition into a period of sustained low growth, characterized by various economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [8][9][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Growth Trends**: - The global economy is expected to continue on a low growth trajectory, with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, unchanged from 2024 [11][12]. - The IMF forecasts a slight recovery in global GDP growth from 2.6% in 2023 to 3.2% in 2024, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and government expenditure [9][11]. 2. **Regional Economic Disparities**: - Emerging economies are anticipated to contribute over half of the global economic recovery, with GDP growth rates of 4.2% for emerging markets compared to 1.9% for developed economies in 2025 [16][19]. - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, supported by strong consumer demand despite high interest rates [16][19]. 3. **Inflation Dynamics**: - Global inflation is expected to slow down, with the CPI growth rate projected at 4.2% for 2025, down from 5.8% in 2024 [22][24]. - The document notes that while inflation pressures are easing, certain economies may still face inflation rebound risks due to geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism [22][24]. 4. **Trade and Investment Outlook**: - Global trade is recovering, with total trade volume reaching $33 trillion in 2024, but is expected to face challenges from rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions [28][29]. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is projected to see moderate growth in 2025, influenced by geopolitical risks and the economic policies of the U.S. under Trump's administration [31][32]. 5. **Financial Market Uncertainties**: - The global financial market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and stock indices [36][39]. - The document highlights that the U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical factors [42][43]. Other Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: - The document emphasizes the impact of geopolitical tensions on economic stability, particularly in relation to trade policies and foreign investment flows [31][32]. - Trump's "America First" policy is expected to reshape global trade dynamics, potentially leading to increased tariffs and trade barriers [8][16]. - **Sector-Specific Trends**: - The technology and traditional energy sectors are identified as key areas for attracting investment, reflecting shifts in global economic priorities [32][50]. - The document notes that while developed economies face challenges, emerging markets may find new opportunities in the evolving global landscape [19][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the global economic landscape as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and challenges for 2025.

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 节后开复工正常推进。每年春节分布不同，年初数据非直接可比。2025年春节与2017、2022年相 似，均处于1月底。从PMI走势看，也呈现类似的规律：1月较前值下降，2月较1月回升。从2月环比前一年 12月的变化来看，2017为0.2；2022年为-0.1；2025年为0，季节性斜率大致相当，显示节后开复工在正 常推进。不过从绝对值看，2025年2月只有50.1，弱于2017年的51.6，略低于2022年2月的50.2，景气中 枢仍需继续提升。 第二， 出口订单依旧较为平稳。2月生产、订单、出口订单环比分别上行2.7、1.9、2.2个点。近年出口订单 基本上波动在47-48的水平，比如2023年均值47.5、2024年均值48.4，今年2月的48.6属于正常水平。不 过鉴于海外逆全球化政策仍在继续升级过程中，对于后续外需风险仍需保持警惕。 第三， 大型企业和小型企业的景气度差值扩大（图）。2月大企业和小企业PMI分别为52.5、46.3，6.2的差 值高于2024年均值的2.7。除了小企业节后劳务上工率约束这一季节性因素外，可能还包含 ...

中国经济正处于新旧动能的转换期，因此市场上对经济中长期问题的讨论很多，且多数都聚焦在内部。但笔者认为，在探讨"内"的同时，也应该看到"外"。实 际上，外的潜在空间更大，且内、外实际上是一体、互为促进的，如何打好这张"外"的牌可能对我国中长期发展的影响更深远。 改革开放以来，中国经济的高增长得益于"三化"——"工业化、城镇化、国际化"。 建国初期的三十年为工业化奠定了坚实的基础。以此为基础，随着改革开 放的推进，工业化进程迅速加快。一方面，这为农村劳动力向城市转移创造了条件；另一方面，城镇化的推进伴随着居民收入的提高，进一步刺激了商品的生 产。与此同时，快速发展的工业化使中国深度融入全球分工体系，凭借低成本要素与全球产业链紧密融合，不仅提升了全球生产效率，也反过来推动中国工业 的迭代升级和持续发展。经过40多年的快速发展，中国已经成为全球第一大工业制造国和货物贸易国，第二大经济体。中国的工业体系不仅大，而且全——是 全世界唯一拥有联合国产业分类当中全部工业门类的国家。 随着经济从高速增长阶段进入高质量发展阶段，"三化"也在进入新的阶段。 当发展阶段变化时，"三化"也在从旧模式、旧视角转为新局面，而在此过程中则蕴 ...