化工板块今日（1月15日）继续猛攻，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后震荡上行， 盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.31%，截至发稿，涨1.76%。 成份股方面，民爆用品、磷化工、锂电等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，广东宏大、云天化双双大 涨超5%，博源化工、兴发集团、宏达股份涨超4%，天赐材料、万华化学涨超3%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | CI005006 | 基础化工(中信) | 95.41亿 | | 2 | CI005003 | 有色金属(中信) | 84.41亿 | | 3 | CI005013 | 汽车(中信) | 20.42亿 | | 4 | CI005025 | 电子(中信) | 11.87亿 | | 5 | CI005010 | 机械(中信) | 11.50亿 | 广发证券指出，化工作为典型周期性行业，通常5年一轮周期，经历"盈利上行-产能扩张-盈利触底-产能 出清/需求预期改善"四个阶段。伴随资本开支增速转负、反内卷、海外降息、扩内需，看好十五五开局 阶段化工"破晓时分"。此外，全球 ...

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic natural rubber price for full latex increased to 15,850 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai mixed rubber price reached 15,150 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons, or 1.9% [4][21] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 835,000 tons, up by 2.5% [4][21] - The market is expected to see high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices in the short term due to seasonal factors and inventory dynamics [5][22] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 90.9%, while Asia's load also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 81.2% [6][23] - The demand for PX is expected to rise as downstream PTA facilities restart, leading to a narrowing of PX inventory accumulation in January [6][23] - Despite geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, the polyester industry remains supported, although seasonal demand weakness is anticipated [6][23] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load increased by 0.1 percentage points to 78.2%, remaining at a historically low level [7][24] - New order sentiment is weak, with a decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [7][24] - PTA inventory is expected to face accumulation pressure in January due to seasonal demand decline and maintenance schedules [7][24][25] Group 4: EG Market - Ethylene glycol industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.2%, with significant room for further improvement [10][27] - Despite rising shipping costs and potential import reductions, domestic supply remains ample, leading to significant supply pressure [10][27] - January is expected to see inventory accumulation, with February potentially being the peak period for inventory pressure in the first half of the year [10][27] Group 5: PF Market - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels [11][28] - Demand from downstream yarn enterprises is cautious as they prepare for the holiday season, leading to a decline in purchasing [11][28] - Short-term demand weakness is expected to continue to suppress prices, although cost support remains [11][28] Group 6: PR Market - The bottle-grade PET industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 74.8%, but remains at historically low levels [11][28] - Demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with limited production recovery expected in January [11][28] Group 7: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures saw a slight decline, with stable spot prices [12][29] - Recent production increased by 57,000 tons to 754,000 tons, leading to increased supply pressure [12][29] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with inventory levels showing mixed trends [12][29] Group 8: Glass Market - Glass futures experienced a slight decline, with stable spot prices [13][30] - Recent production decreased, while downstream purchasing activity has improved, leading to a reduction in inventory [13][30] - Seasonal demand weakness is anticipated, with short-term price fluctuations expected [13][30] Group 9: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda prices have seen slight declines, with high supply levels maintained [14][31] - Downstream demand remains weak, impacting market prices [14][31] Group 10: PVC Market - PVC futures declined by 10 CNY/ton to 4,878 CNY/ton, with ongoing supply pressure [15][32] - The supply side remains in an upward trend, while demand is expected to improve only slightly [15][32] - Short-term market dynamics are expected to remain volatile, with a focus on price fluctuations [15][32]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to remain in a trend of demand reduction and structural adjustment through 2026, with limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics and profitability. However, the structural changes brought about by anti-involution are noteworthy, focusing on two main lines: differentiated production control and the acceleration of domestic substitution in high-end steel materials, benefiting leading special steel companies [2][6]. Supply Dynamics - The steel industry is entering a new phase of "reduction and quality improvement," with increasing differentiation and structural changes. The tightening of capacity replacement policies and the promotion of green transformation are expected to drive differentiated production control, benefiting ESG-compliant companies [6][20]. - The new capacity replacement implementation measures are becoming stricter, signaling a gradual solidification of the industry's capacity ceiling. Companies unable to meet the new standards may exit the market, reshaping the competitive landscape [21][20]. Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with sales and new construction areas declining significantly. The forecast for 2026 indicates a further reduction in real estate steel demand by 5.3% [23]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to see marginal improvement, with a projected 2.8% increase in steel demand for infrastructure in 2026, driven by government debt management and project funding optimization [23]. - Manufacturing demand is anticipated to grow, with a 1.7% increase in steel consumption expected in 2026, supported by high-tech manufacturing and equipment upgrades [24]. Price and Profitability Outlook - The black series prices are expected to seek a new equilibrium, with projections for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel prices to decline to 2960, 3050, and 3850 yuan per ton, respectively, in 2026. The gross profit margins for these products are forecasted to be 127, 66, and 346 yuan per ton, showing year-on-year increases [5][28]. - The profitability of steel companies is expected to improve moderately as raw material prices decline, with the gross profit margins projected to be below the historical median [28][29]. Investment Opportunities - The focus is on high-quality cash flow assets that are undervalued and leading in green transformation, which are likely to see a recovery in profitability and value reassessment [2][38]. - The special steel sector is poised for growth, driven by domestic substitution and the increasing demand from advanced manufacturing sectors, indicating a favorable outlook for leading special steel companies [39][41].

核心阅读 电动化技术持续进阶、前沿技术加快应用、反内卷措施先后落地……我国汽车产销量持续增长。亮 眼成绩单，折射出我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展的强大韧性和澎湃动能。 重庆市沙坪坝区三峡广场，市民在试驾新能源汽车。孙凯芳摄（影像中国） 安徽省合肥市新桥智能电动汽车产业园，一辆新车下线。新华社记者 黄博涵摄 数据来源：中国汽车工业协会 制图：汪哲平 "方程豹钛7上市80天，累计销量突破5万台，成交均价超21万元，2025年12月销量超过3.4万 台。"方程豹汽车总经理熊甜波说。 高效的智能制造体系、强大的本土供应链能力、快速的技术迭代、密集投放的高竞争力新产品，叠 加政策组合效应下汽车内需有效释放，推动我国汽车产销量持续增长。我国汽车产销连续3年保持3000 万辆以上规模，连续17年稳居全球第一。 在外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面下，汽车产业的亮眼成绩单，折射出我国经济顶压前 行、向新向优发展的强大韧性和澎湃动能。 深耕电动化，多技术路线融合创新 2025年12月23日上午，漠河，气温零下28摄氏度。吉利汽车研究院系统控制开发工程师张鲁超打开 静置一夜的银河星舰7，开启了交通高峰期10公里测试。"今天测试 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：回归理性 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 1 月 14日， 股市经历显著的"倒 V型"反转行情，继昨日的调整行情过后，今日早盘机构与主力资金追高情 绪较强，上证指数午间收盘前上涨 1.20%至 4189 点，午间监管发文调整融资保证金比例，通过限制杠杆水平抑制 股市投机，午后市场自发矫正定价，各大股指普遍迎来回落。债市则继续"佛系定价"，长端品种收益率多随股 市风险摇摆窄幅震荡。 权益市场在上涨后回落。万得全 A上涨 0.31%，全天成交额 3.99 万亿元，较昨日（1 月 13 日）放量 2881 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.56%，恒生科技上涨 0.66%。南向资金净流入 28.65 亿港元，其中腾讯控股、 阿里健康、阿里巴巴分别净流入 20.09 亿港元、14.58 亿港元和 11.34 亿港元，中国移动则净流出 9.13亿港元。 市场情绪有望回归理性。1 月 14 日中午，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证 券时的 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS analysts express optimism for the Chinese stock market in 2026, citing macroeconomic improvements, strong policy support, optimized market structure, and continued capital inflows as key factors [2][3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience a significant rebound, with a projected 10% growth in earnings per share (EPS) driven by revenue growth, share buybacks, and improved profit margins [3] - The A-share market is anticipated to see an 8% growth in earnings, with a shift in growth drivers from financial sectors to a broader range of non-financial enterprises [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified include artificial intelligence (especially hardware and semiconductor equipment), leading internet companies, brokerage firms, and companies with strong international capabilities [3][4] - The growth potential in cyclical sectors, such as certain metals and chemicals, is highlighted, alongside a cautious outlook for consumer sectors that may require more time to show substantial improvement [4] Group 3: IPO and M&A Trends - The IPO market in Hong Kong is expected to remain active in 2026, with over 300 companies having submitted listing applications, and a potential increase in financing scale compared to 2025 [6][7] - The M&A market is projected to continue its active trend, driven by domestic state-owned enterprise restructuring, large private equity transactions, and a resurgence in cross-border M&A activities [8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is forecasted at approximately 4.5% for 2026, with inflation expected to rise to around 0.4% and a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [9] - The structural rebalancing theme is emphasized, with expectations for infrastructure investment to recover, supporting overall investment cycles [9] Group 5: AI Industry Development - The Chinese AI industry is set for significant advancements in 2026, with improvements in model capabilities and a broader range of application scenarios anticipated [10][11] - The focus on practical applications of AI, such as cloud services and advertising, is expected to drive commercialization efforts [11] - Concerns about an "AI bubble" in China are deemed low, as leading model firms rely on existing business cash flows for R&D, and there is a pragmatic approach to capital expenditures [11][12]

Investment Highlights - The article highlights the increasing trend of industry consolidation driven by recent mergers and acquisitions among leading companies, indicating a clear upward trajectory in industry concentration [2] - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2026, supported by improving supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic stability during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the impact of new technologies such as AI and robotics on demand for new materials [39][40] 2025 Chemical Industry Review and 2026 Outlook 1.1 2025 Industry Review: Clear Differentiation - As of December 12, 2025, the basic chemical industry outperformed the market with a 32.16% increase in the CITIC Basic Chemical Index, compared to a 6.59% increase in the CITIC Oil and Petrochemical Index [3][6] 1.2 2025 Industry Review: Sub-industry Differentiation - Among 39 sub-industries, 38 saw increases, with potassium fertilizer leading at +85.87% and refining lagging at -8.99% [6] 1.3 Energy Chemical Products Review and 2026 Outlook - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with WTI and Brent averaging $65.05 and $68.36 per barrel respectively in 2025, down from $76.10 and $80.11 in 2024 [8] 1.4 Supply-Demand Dynamics Improvement: Capacity Expansion Slowing - Fixed asset investment in the chemical industry decreased by 7.9% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [13] 1.5 Supply-Demand Dynamics Improvement: Demand Side Stabilization Expected - The basic chemical industry achieved revenue of 676.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 5.32% year-on-year increase [18] 1.6 Supply-Demand Dynamics Improvement: Capital Expenditure and Construction Projects - Capital expenditure in the basic chemical industry fell by 1.17% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating a trend of reduced investment [22] 1.7 Revenue and Profit Situation: Revenue Growth of 2.87% in 2025 - The basic chemical industry saw a revenue increase of 2.87% in the first three quarters of 2025, with 14 out of 33 sub-industries reporting growth [25] 1.8 Revenue and Profit Situation: Profit Growth of 5.61% in 2025 - The industry recorded a profit increase of 5.61% in the first three quarters of 2025, with notable growth in sectors like pesticides and membrane materials [27] 1.9 Capital Expenditure and Construction Projects: Capacity Expansion Slowing - Capital expenditure in the basic chemical sector decreased by 9.07% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [29] 1.10 Oil and Petrochemical Industry Revenue and Construction Projects - The oil and petrochemical industry reported a revenue of 19,037 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decline of 4.67% year-on-year [33] 1.11 Strategic Emerging Industries Development Direction - The focus for 2026 will be on quality improvement in the chemical industry, with an emphasis on new materials and technologies [37] Chemical Cycle Products: "Anti-Internal Competition" Catalyzing Cycle Recovery 2.1 Petrochemical Refining: Oil Price Stabilization - Oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel, benefiting refining margins and improving profitability for domestic refineries [42][45] 2.2 Pesticides: Industry Outlook Improving - The pesticide industry is expected to see gradual improvement in market conditions as raw material prices stabilize [48][50] 2.3 Potash: Resource Endowment Supporting Industry Stability - The potash industry is characterized by a concentrated global supply chain, ensuring food security [52][56] 2.4 Phosphate: Favorable for Integrated Resource Companies - The phosphate industry is expected to benefit from stable demand in agriculture and the growth of new energy sectors [59][62] 2.5 Civil Explosives: Steady Growth Supported by Demand - The civil explosives industry is projected to grow steadily due to stable demand from infrastructure projects [64][66] 2.6 Fluorochemicals: Growth Potential in High-Value Applications - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from increasing demand for high-value applications in various sectors [71][74] 2.7 Soda Ash: Tight Supply-Demand Balance - The soda ash industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with limited new capacity expected [81][83] 2.8 Titanium Dioxide: Industry Recovery Anticipated - The titanium dioxide industry is expected to recover as supply constraints and environmental regulations drive consolidation [86][89] Chemical New Materials: "New Economy" Driving Growth 3.1 Electronic Chemicals: Accelerating Domestic Substitution - The semiconductor materials market is projected to grow, with domestic companies making strides in replacing imported products [91][93]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Re bar: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: One red star, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking coal: One red star with one white star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Silicomanganese: Two red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market condition is showing on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has little supply - demand contradiction, with cautious market sentiment, and the trading floor is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to have a strong - side fluctuating trend, considering the supply situation and market policy expectations [4][6] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Grouped by Commodity Steel - The steel futures trading floor continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the short - term trading floor continuing the range - bound pattern [2] - The demand for steel in the downstream industries is weak, but the steel exports in December reached a new high [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment decreased seasonally, while the domestic arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the short - term resumption of production is difficult. The steel mills' import ore inventory is still low, and there is still an expectation for winter storage replenishment [3] Coke - The coke trading price increased sporadically, with general coking profit and a slight increase in daily production [4] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is at an off - season level, with the steel mills still having a strong intention to suppress prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal production decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions continued to improve, with the terminal inventory increasing slightly [6] - The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased sharply [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The manganese ore spot price increased, and there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory [7] - The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the silicomanganese weekly production and inventory decreased slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rebounded after reaching the bottom. Affected by relevant policies, the price is relatively strong [8] - The iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, and the export demand decreased, but the overall demand is still resilient [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [11]. Core Insights - Changan Automobile is highlighted for its focus on Avita, which is expected to become a valuable asset as it prepares for a Hong Kong IPO, supported by state-owned enterprise backing [2][3]. - Qianli Technology's partnership with Geely is anticipated to unlock significant growth potential in its intelligent driving systems, targeting the 150,000 to 500,000 yuan market segment, with expectations for improved profit margins [2][3]. - WeRide's overseas business is progressing better than expected, with annual revenue per vehicle in the Middle East projected to reach $90,000, potentially contributing 1 billion yuan in profits if it scales to 10,000 units by 2030 [4]. - Alter's AI tools are noted for their unique application in the automotive sector, with a projected revenue growth of around 40% in 2026, primarily driven by product enhancements [5]. Summary by Company Changan Automobile - Focus on Avita's IPO and brand positioning is crucial for sales growth, moving away from price competition [2][3]. Qianli Technology - Collaboration with Geely is expected to enhance the scalability of its intelligent driving systems, with a focus on achieving superior profit margins [2][3]. WeRide - The company is set to benefit from overseas market expansion, with significant profit potential from scaling operations in the Middle East [4]. Alter - The company is leveraging AI to enhance design efficiency, with expectations for a turnaround in profitability by 2027-2028 [5].

Investment Highlights - The equity market has shown a recovery since December 2025, with major indices recording monthly gains. The cyclical and growth sectors performed well, while the value sector lagged behind. Notably, the defense, non-ferrous metals, and communication sectors saw significant increases of 21.24%, 13.03%, and 12.82% respectively, while real estate, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines of -4.47%, -4.34%, and -4.09% respectively [6][11][12] - The bond market faced overall weakness in December, with long-term and ultra-long-term bonds performing poorly. The yield curve steepened, and the overall performance of the bond market was subdued due to various factors, including supply pressures and profit-taking by institutions at year-end [7][20] Active Equity Fund Selection Strategy - Since December 2025, there has been a shift from defensive to offensive market strategies, with a recovery in risk appetite. The central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and focused on structural adjustments and technological innovation, particularly in the "AI +" sector [2][12][13] - The current environment supports asset revaluation, with a focus on sectors driven by both "story and performance," such as the AI industry chain and commercial aerospace. Additionally, traditional industries like chemicals and engineering machinery are highlighted for their reasonable valuations and potential for improved return on equity (ROE) [2][15] Fixed Income Fund Selection Strategy - The outlook for January suggests a potential short-term rebound in the bond market, but a cautious approach is advised due to ongoing supply pressures and limited room for interest rate cuts. The strategy continues to favor flexible bond products while maintaining duration neutrality [3][20] - The pure bond fund index has shown stability, with slight increases in various bond fund indices, indicating a mixed performance landscape in the bond market [7][22] Historical Performance Review - Since the construction of the active equity selection index on May 11, 2023, it has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.4934, outperforming the benchmark by 20.21%. The index recorded a return of 6.61% since the December 2025 monthly configuration report [17][22] - The short-term bond fund selection index has also shown positive performance, with a cumulative net value of 1.4637, exceeding its benchmark by 0.5434% since its inception [22][30]