1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate after a rally, while silver is likely to stabilize and rebound [2][4]. - Copper prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction [2][10]. - Aluminum is expected to show a slightly bullish trend, whereas alumina is predicted to continue falling [2][13]. - Zinc supply increments are gradually materializing, potentially capping its upside [2][15]. - Lead is expected to trade within a range [2][18]. - Nickel has support from mining - end contradictions but limited upside due to relative economic factors, and stainless steel is under negative - feedback pressure on valuation with cost decline but still has a floor [2][21]. - Tin is expected to have a slight recovery [2][24]. - Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental outlook and its futures price will fluctuate at a low level, and polysilicon has a weak spot price and its futures price is bearish [2][29]. - Lithium carbonate is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at the bottom [2][32]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing price of沪金2504 was 791.02 with a daily increase of 0.23%, and the closing price of黄金T+D was 787.20 with a daily decrease of 0.02%. For silver, the closing price of沪银2504 was 8160 with a daily decrease of 0.01%. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, and inventory [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 0 [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 76,140 with a daily increase of 0.48%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The government is researching measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and there are developments in copper - related projects and policies, such as a new copper mine project in Arizona and a call to limit copper ore and scrap copper exports in the US [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamental Data**: In March 2025, China's alumina exports increased significantly, while imports decreased. Aluminum ingot imports continued to rise, with a high proportion from Russia [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, and alumina trend intensity is 0 [14]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22050 with a daily increase of 0.27%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, various price spreads, and inventory [15]. - **News**: Some zinc smelters plan to increase production or postpone maintenance, and China responded to the US 301 investigation [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16855 with a daily increase of 0.63%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, various price spreads, and inventory [18]. - **News**: China responded to the US 301 investigation [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [19]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力. There were also developments in the nickel industry chain, such as changes in high - nickel pig iron prices and nickel plate - high - nickel iron spreads [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Some nickel production projects in Indonesia are increasing production, and there are policy changes in nickel resource taxes in Indonesia [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [23]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 256,250 with a daily decrease of 0.59%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, inventory, and various price spreads [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are political and international news events, such as Trump's statements on tariffs and calls for Fed rate cuts [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [28]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. Industrial silicon inventory data and polysilicon factory inventory data were also provided [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A photovoltaic aluminum frame project held a groundbreaking ceremony [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is - 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is - 1 [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads of lithium carbonate futures contracts. There were also changes in raw material prices and lithium salt product prices [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were developments in lithium - related projects, such as the transfer of a lithium mine's mining right and the termination of a lithium - related project [33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [34].

Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025 - 04 - 17 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the resumption of some maintenance - shut - down capacities, so the overall output will keep increasing [3]. - Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline significantly [3]. - On the demand side, the demand in the traditional downstream peak season is gradually picking up. With the recent decline in zinc prices, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved. Domestic inventories have declined significantly and are expected to enter the traditional destocking cycle, while overseas destocking continues [3]. - Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand [3]. - Technically, the position is increasing, and the short - selling sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure. Operationally, a light - position short - selling strategy is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21,990 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc was 140 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,582 dollars/ton, down 33 dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc was 233,473 lots, down 1,595 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was - 6,544 lots, up 2,443 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 9,561 tons, down 597 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 63,857 tons (weekly), down 4,686 tons. The LME inventory was 190,550 tons (daily), up 78,525 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,480 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,220 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 490 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was - 31.57 dollars/ton, down 8.19 dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,550 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons. According to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - ILZSG's global zinc mine production was 1,007,500 tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 597,000 tons (monthly), up 30,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons. The refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory was 88,900 tons (weekly), up 2,300 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area was 66.14 million square meters, down 672.7884 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area was 737.43 million square meters, up 255.91 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production was 3.4986 million vehicles, up 51,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option was 18.32% (daily), down 0.34%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option was 18.32% (daily), down 0.34% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 18.3% (daily), up 0.22%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 17.98% (daily), down 0.07% [3]. 7. Industry News - According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in February 2025, the global zinc sheet production was 1.1245 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1079 million tons, with a supply surplus of 16,600 tons [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump even exceeded the Fed's highest pre - prepared estimate. Don't expect the Fed to rescue the market, as Trump changes every day [3]. - From a macro perspective, Powell said on Wednesday that the US economic growth seems to be slowing down, consumer spending growth is moderate, the rush to buy imported goods to avoid tariffs may drag down the estimate of GDP, and confidence is also deteriorating. Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the attractiveness of the US dollar has been weakened [3].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the impact of policies may lead the Federal Reserve to deviate from its expected targets [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's policy decisions are influenced by various economic factors, which may alter its anticipated outcomes [1] - Powell's comments suggest a potential reassessment of the Fed's economic forecasts and targets [1] - The statement reflects ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape that could affect monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the RMB is under significant pressure due to the ongoing US-China trade war and Federal Reserve policies, marking the largest strain since the 2008 financial crisis [1][4]. Impact on Import Costs - The depreciation of the RMB against the USD directly increases the import costs of commodities such as oil and iron ore, with a 1% depreciation leading to a cost increase of 0.8-1.2% [4]. - In 2024, China's reliance on foreign oil is projected to reach 73%, resulting in a 15% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for energy companies, which will compress profit margins in sectors like petrochemicals and aviation [4]. - High-tech product imports, including chips and precision instruments, will also see a cost increase, with companies like SMIC facing a 12% rise in procurement costs for technical equipment [4]. Inflationary Pressures - The depreciation of the RMB is expected to cause the food and consumer goods import price index to rise by 6.3%, with essential items like beef and milk powder experiencing price increases of up to 9.8% [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China is projected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, exceeding the central bank's 3% warning line, complicating monetary policy balancing between growth and inflation control [6]. Debt Implications - The depreciation of the RMB increases the repayment costs for companies and local governments with foreign debt, with a 5% depreciation translating to an additional $140 billion in debt servicing costs for the $2.8 trillion foreign debt [8][9]. - Real estate companies, such as Country Garden and Vanke, are particularly affected, with the proportion of dollar-denominated debt interest payments rising from 12% to 19%, exacerbating cash flow challenges [9]. Capital Outflow Risks - Continuous RMB depreciation poses risks of capital outflow, as foreign investment may decline and domestic capital may seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets, especially given the current high US Federal Reserve interest rates [10]. Export Dynamics - While RMB depreciation theoretically enhances export competitiveness, it may lead to a reliance on low-end manufacturing, with high-tech product export share declining by 2.3 percentage points to 28.7% in 2024 [11]. - The withdrawal of foreign R&D centers and a shift in investment towards Southeast Asia by companies like BMW and Tesla indicate a potential decline in foreign investment attractiveness due to currency volatility [11]. Structural Changes and Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that significant currency adjustments often accompany industrial upgrades, and the current low point of the RMB may represent a pivotal moment for China to advance beyond the middle-income trap and into higher value chains [12]. - Short-term challenges are anticipated as the economy adjusts to these changes, necessitating innovation and a robust domestic supply chain to enhance resilience against external shocks [12][13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the index rebounds, and investors are advised to wait and see. The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing with loose fiscal and monetary policies, but attention should be paid to risks such as tariff policy disturbances, overseas economic inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and Fed - related policies [2]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Macro and Market Outlook for Stock Index Futures - **Domestic News**: In Q1 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of March, M2 balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and M1 balance was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [2]. - **Overseas News**: The US Commerce Secretary said that the Trump administration's exemption of full "reciprocal" tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronics is a temporary measure, and these devices will be covered by upcoming industry - based tariffs [2]. - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: Last week, the CSI 300 index opened lower, hit bottom, and then rebounded, with a significant increase in trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 242 billion yuan, and margin trading funds decreased by 93.7 billion yuan. Technically, the CSI 300 index is below the 40 - day moving average, with short - term trading volume increasing and medium - to - long - term valuations at medium - low levels [2]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price Movement**: Stock index futures opened lower, hit bottom, and then rebounded, with an increase in market trading volume [5]. - **Basis**: The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [5]. - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, large - cap stocks in the SSE 50 have risen by 14.28%, and small - cap stocks in the CSI 1000 have risen by 0.13% [5]. - **Futures Contract Data**: | Futures Contract | Last Week's Close | This Week's Close | Weekly Increase | Weekly Volume | Weekly Open Interest | Volume/Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | IF2506 | 3837 | 3686.6 | - 3.92% | 542267 | 139942 | 3.87 | | IH2506 | 2658 | 2595.6 | - 2.35% | 308515 | 47569 | 6.49 | | IC2506 | 5712.2 | 5424.2 | - 5.04% | 310061 | 96669 | 3.21 | | IM2506 | 6031.8 | 5672.2 | - 5.96% | 1195363 | 173299 | 6.90 | [4] 3.3. Macro and Earnings Growth of Stock Index - **Macro**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the boom - bust line. The interest rate was 1.64%, below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7%, returning to normal. - **Profit**: The year - on - year change of net profit of A - share enterprises in the first three quarters turned from decline to increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 increased year - on - year. - **Interest Rate**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds was 1.64%, a decrease of 11 BP from last week [8]. 3.4. Capital and Valuation Changes of Stock Index - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 93.7 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares in the past 5 trading days was 242 billion yuan [13]. - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 11 times, and the percentile is 32% [13]. - **Index Valuation Data**: | Index | Rolling P/E | P/E Percentile | P/B | P/B Percentile | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | CSI 300 | 11.46 | 32% | 1.28 | 8% | | SSE 50 | 10.26 | 42% | 1.16 | 13% | | CSI 500 | 21.34 | 32% | 1.75 | 12% | | CSI 1000 | 24.66 | 39% | 1.91 | 10% | [10] 3.5. Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Stock Index - **Fundamentals**: - **Macro Environment**: In the medium - to - long - term, the currency is loose, the interest rate is low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish). - **Earnings**: The earnings of A - shares in the first three quarters increased year - on - year (bullish). - **Capital**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish). - **Valuation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - to - long - term (bullish) [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - to - long - term moving average, with an increase in trading volume, and short - term wide - range fluctuations (neutral) [16].

有色金属日报 2025-4-14 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价大幅下探后回升，伦铜周涨 5.68%至 9184 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 75710 元/吨。产业 层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 3.4 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 4.3 至 18.3 万吨，LME 库存减 少 0.2 至 20.9 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 1.1 至 10.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.1 万吨。当周铜现 货进口盈亏冲高回落，洋 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices rebounded after hitting a low, currently trading around $3042, recovering all losses from the previous night [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.283%, reaching a high of 4.296%, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Concerns over weak demand for U.S. Treasury auctions and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook are dominating short-term market sentiment [1] Trade Policy - U.S. Trade Representative Tai indicated that there will be no easing of tariff policies in the short term, emphasizing the necessity of short-term pain for long-term competitiveness [3] - Tariffs on 57 trading partners have come into effect, reinforcing U.S. trade barriers and contributing to ongoing global trade tensions [3] - The U.S. is engaged in negotiations with over 50 countries, but a hardline stance is maintained, requiring substantial reductions in tariffs from trading partners for any consideration of tariff relief [3] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index fell below 5000, with a cumulative drop of over 12% in four days, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $5.8 trillion [4] - The volatility index (VIX) surged to its highest level since March 2020, indicating widespread market panic [4] - Market expectations suggest a 105 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with over 50% probability for a cut in May [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recovery from recent lows, with potential for significant fluctuations within the range above $2950 [6] - Short-term price movements indicate a challenge around the $3050 level, with key support at $3013 [6] Trading Strategy - Aggressive buying is suggested around $3013, with a stop loss at $2999 and a target of $3053/3076 [7] - For short positions, entry is recommended near $3053, with a stop loss at $3060 and a target of $3033/3013 [7]

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