1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term setbacks in interest - rate cut expectations won't change the Fed's medium - term easing pattern. The new Fed chair in 2026 is likely to implement significant monetary easing, which will impact the Fed's policy independence. The rise in precious metal prices reflects the dollar's credit and the Fed's monetary policy. Due to the resilience of US economic data, silver with stronger industrial attributes shows a more robust price performance [3]. - Considering the macro background and precious metal positions, the current strategy suggests buying on dips, especially paying attention to the upward potential of silver prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 818 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10152 - 11500 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Price Changes**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.88% to 862.50 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 3.90% to 10936.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.33% to 3796.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.07% to 46.63 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.2%, and the US dollar index was 98.16 [2]. - **Position Changes**: The positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly. The positions of major foreign gold ETFs rose 3.79% to 2261.6 tons this month, and major foreign silver ETFs rose to 27945.91 tons. The total position of Shanghai Gold rose from 422,000 lots at the beginning of September to 454,000 lots, and that of COMEX Gold rose from 417,000 lots to 515,000 lots. The total position of Shanghai Silver rose from 865,000 lots to 912,000 lots, and that of COMEX Silver rose from 153,000 lots to 167,000 lots [2]. 3.2 Strategy View - **Price Data**: The closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. are provided. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 852.90 yuan/gram, up 0.11% from the previous day [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: Based on the macro background and precious metal positions, it is recommended to buy on dips, especially focusing on the rise of silver prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts are given [4]. 3.3 Key Data Summary - **Gold**: For COMEX Gold on September 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 3789.80 dollars/ounce, up 0.25%; the trading volume was 206,100 lots, down 19.14%; the position was 528,800 lots, up 2.43%; the inventory was 1242 tons, up 0.06%. Similar data for other gold - related products are also presented [7]. - **Silver**: For COMEX Silver on September 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 46.37 dollars/ounce, up 1.97%; the position was 165,800 lots, up 1.75%; the inventory was 16496 tons, up 0.08%. Similar data for other silver - related products are also provided [7]. 3.4 Charts and Data Sources - Multiple charts are presented, including the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX Gold price and real interest rate, the price and trading volume of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Silver, etc. The data sources are mainly WIND and the research center of Wukuang Futures [9][13][20]. 3.5 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - **Gold**: On September 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was - 9.15 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 16.76 dollars/ounce [50]. - **Silver**: On September 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 0.06 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference data is also presented [50].

Core Insights - The gold market in Shanghai is experiencing active trading, with gold prices being the focal point of the market [1][16] - The international gold price has seen a significant decline, while platinum and palladium prices have shown strong performance [5][16] Group 1: Gold Market Overview - On September 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold trading price was set at 856.8 CNY per gram, with futures slightly lower at 856.12 CNY per gram [1] - The price range for gold jewelry varies significantly, from 879 CNY to 1108 CNY per gram, reflecting differences in brand, craftsmanship, and design [1] - Major banks have differing prices for investment gold bars, with Agricultural Bank's price at 893.19 CNY per gram being the highest among banks [1] Group 2: Jewelry Brand Pricing - Major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, and others are offering 99.9% pure gold products at a uniform price of 1108 CNY per gram [2] - Chow Sang Sang's pricing is slightly higher at 1109 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao Huang Jin have the highest price at 1110 CNY per gram [2] - Brands like Cai Bai and China Gold offer more competitive pricing at 1058 CNY per gram for their 99.9% pure gold products [2] Group 3: Paper Precious Metals Market - The price of paper gold was recorded at 863.71 CNY per gram, showing a slight decrease of 0.36% [3] - Paper silver prices increased slightly to 10.56 CNY per gram, while paper platinum and palladium prices experienced minor declines [3] Group 4: International Precious Metals Market - International gold prices fell to 3311.86 USD per ounce, marking a decline of 1.27% [5] - In contrast, international platinum prices rose significantly to 1176.76 USD per ounce, up by 3.03% [5] - Palladium prices surged to 1065.20 USD per ounce, reflecting a robust increase of 5.36% [5] Group 5: Precious Metals Recycling Market - The buyback price for gold jewelry is set at 840 CNY per gram, ensuring 99.9% purity [6] - Platinum jewelry has a buyback price of 325 CNY per gram, while 18K gold is priced at 606 CNY per gram based on actual gold content [7][8] - Palladium jewelry is valued at 245 CNY per gram, with a purity of 95% [9] Group 6: Price Increases in High-End Brands - The international gold price has increased over 40% this year, prompting many high-end Chinese gold brands to raise their prices [14] - Brands like Chow Sang Sang have raised retail prices to 1100 CNY per gram, reflecting the rising costs of gold materials and craftsmanship [14] - Despite price increases, consumer demand remains strong, with reports of buying frenzies at various high-end jewelry stores [15][16]

Market Performance - On September 26, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 862.50 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.88% from the previous day [1][2] - The opening price for the day was 857.70 CNY per gram, with a high of 865.28 CNY and a low of 857.38 CNY [1][2] Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policies, indicating ongoing internal divisions regarding the need for further rate cuts [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase in U.S. personal consumption expenditures and GDP growth, leading to a reduced necessity for rate cuts by the Fed [4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 50.2, remaining above the growth threshold, while the Eurozone's PMI showed a decline [4] Fiscal and Monetary Conditions - The U.S. banking system's reserves fell below $3 trillion for the first time since January 1, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August was reported at $344.79 billion, driven by increased spending and weaker corporate tax revenues [5] - The rising fiscal deficit and national debt, now at $37 trillion, continue to support precious metals [5] Political Developments - Significant political events have heightened global sensitivity, with the U.S. imposing new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and other goods, potentially benefiting gold in the long term [6] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen notable price increases, driven by rising leasing rates in the silver market [7] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are influenced by the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, with recent liquidity releases leading to recoveries in gold, silver, and equities [7] - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to global debt and geopolitical factors, although caution is advised for short-term trading volatility [7]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve officials express differing views on interest rate adjustments, indicating ongoing internal divisions within the Fed [1][2] - Recent economic data shows an increase in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October, with the probability rising from 10% to 15% [2] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, driven by net exports, suggesting a stronger economic outlook [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. banking system's liquidity is tightening, as evidenced by a drop in bank reserves below $3 trillion for the first time since January [3] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August reached $344.79 billion, primarily due to increased spending, which continues to exert pressure on fiscal policy [3] - The recent rise in precious metals, particularly silver, is attributed to increased leasing rates in the silver market, indicating delivery pressure in the spot market [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Significant political events, including proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals and other goods by the U.S. government, may create favorable conditions for gold [4] - The potential resurgence of tariff-related tensions could impact global trade dynamics, further influencing precious metal markets [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The long-term upward trend in precious metals remains intact, supported by global debt and geopolitical factors, although short-term volatility should be approached with caution [5] - Gold is viewed as having stronger support, while silver is recognized for its greater elasticity in price movements [5]

期货公司观点 广发期货： 目前在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征 从而打压美元指数，同时欧美国家政治局势动荡使股市风险偏好下降从而增加机构投资者对贵金属避险 的配置需求带来价格不断抬升。美联储决议如期降息 25 个 BP 对于未来宽松步伐仍较谨慎需要基于数 据决策，本次市场解读偏中性消化后未来分歧或更剧烈使行情走势反复。短期美国政府"关门"和海外政 局动荡等风险升温，黄金维持高位震荡波动率或再次上升，单边择机逢低买入或买入虚值看涨期权代替 多头。 美国经济在第二季度以近两年来最快的速度增长，为自2023年第三季度录得4.7%增长以来的最强劲表 现，这得益于消费者支出数据被大幅上修。然而，这份强劲的报告也显示出通胀压力比之前评估的更为 顽固。25日周四，美国经济分析局（BEA）公布的初步数据显示：美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比终值 增长3.8%，这一增速高于此前报告的3.3%，第一季度曾出现萎缩。美国二季度核心个人消费支出(PCE) 物价指数年化季环比终值 2.6%，预期 2.5%，前值 2.5%。 随着流动性继续从金融体系中流失，美国银行体系的外汇储备连续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, in the short - term, gold is weak while silver is strong, and in the long - term, they are expected to rise step - by - step. The reasons include short - term hedging factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence and increased stagflation risks in the US economy; geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East; the Fed's interest rate cuts and market expectations of further cuts; and the impact of the CRB commodity index and RMB exchange rate on the price [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.01%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 2.27% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term hedging: Trade agreements are reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence resurface; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are being fulfilled. Hedging attribute: Geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The attempt by Trump to fire Fed Governor Cook and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for over - stepping his authority to remove her have raised concerns about the Fed's independence. Monetary attribute: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. Market expectations are that the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October remains around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold showed different changes; domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D increased; various bases, spreads, and ratios also changed; positions in Comex gold, Shanghai gold, and gold TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold also changed [2]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Funds and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver increased; domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D also rose; bases and spreads changed; positions in Comex silver, Shanghai silver, and silver TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai silver, and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange changed, and the total explicit inventory increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. Various bond spreads, inflation indicators, and economic growth indicators showed different changes [8][10]. - **Risk Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 16.79%, and the VIX index increased by 6.62% [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 1.46% [11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in different periods from 2025 to 2027 are presented in the table [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].

| 贵金属日评20250926:美联储未来降息预期转鹰施压贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-19 | 收盘价 | 854. 72 | -5. 28 | 830. 56 | 24. 16 | 860. 00 | | | | | 成交量 | 270576.00 | 285621.00 | 210003.00 | 60. 573. 00 | -15, 045. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 240177.00 | 26, 452. 00 | 266629.00 | 274765.00 | -8.136.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 8, 205.00 | 65634.00 | 60543.00 | 57429.00 | 5,091.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [2][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices were in a high - level volatile adjustment. As the National Day holiday in China approaches and precious metals have risen significantly previously, it is recommended to reduce long positions. During the holiday, important US non - farm and ISM PMI data will be released. The US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin rebounded, the US stock market fell, and crude oil continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3768.5 per ounce, down 1.24%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.115 per ounce, down 1.11%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 860 yuan per gram, up 1.03%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.83% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 24.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 74.4%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 31.3%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.72 tons to 996.85 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15469.12 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12.8 tons to 1161.8 tons daily; as of the week ending September 19, SGX silver inventory increased by 35.4 tons to 1217 tons weekly [3] 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Mainly focus on the final value of the US second - quarter GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give a speech; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests; at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech [3] 4. Nanhua's Viewpoint - The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. In the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down. London gold closed with a negative candlestick, and London silver closed with a high - level doji, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. London gold has support around 3700 and resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions [4][5] 5. Precious Metal Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [5] 6. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings [13][14] 7. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [21]

Group 1: Market Analysis - US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell, criticizing the lack of a clear agenda for interest rate cuts and urging a 100 - 150 basis - point cut by the end of the year [1] - US new home sales in August reached an annualized total of 800,000, far exceeding the expected 650,000, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%, and the inventory of new homes for sale dropped to 490,000 [1] - The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and exempting EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and parts, generic drugs and raw materials, and some metals and ores from tariffs since September 1 [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 24, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 861.34 yuan/gram, closed at 860.00 yuan/gram, with a 0.53% change from the previous trading day's close; the overnight session closed at 853.06 yuan/gram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] - On September 24, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,442.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 10,397.00 yuan/kilogram, with a 0.46% change from the previous trading day's close; the overnight session closed at 10,349 yuan/kilogram, down 0.46% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 24, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.147%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day; the 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.541%, up 0.01 BP from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on SHFE - On September 24, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, long positions changed by 35 hands and short positions by 202 hands; the total trading volume of gold contracts was 451,118 hands, with a 13.19% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 hands and short positions by - 2 hands; the total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,293,850 hands, with a - 2.87% change from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position increased by 2.29 tons to 996.85 tons, and the silver ETF position increased by 100.22 tons to 15,469.12 tons [5] Group 6: Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 24, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 13.06 yuan/gram and for silver was - 966.68 yuan/kilogram; the price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on SHFE was about 82.72, with a 0.07% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas price ratio was 85.46, with a 0.45% change [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On September 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 48,028 kilograms, down 9.65% from the previous trading day; the silver trading volume was 631,748 kilograms, up 15.21% from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 16,124 kilograms and the silver delivery volume was 48,870 kilograms [7] Group 8: Investment Strategies - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Short - term price may fluctuate, but the long - term logic of being a substitute for US dollar assets remains. The Au2512 contract may fluctuate between 840 yuan/gram and 870 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Similar macro - logic to gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow with the recovery of heavy - industry demand in the easing cycle. The Ag2512 contract may fluctuate between 10,250 yuan/kilogram and 10,650 yuan/kilogram [8][9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels - Options: Postpone