Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is prepared to maintain a patient approach to interest rate adjustments due to increasing economic uncertainty, particularly influenced by potential tariff impacts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve officials believe that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased since the March meeting, primarily due to potential tariff impacts [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has intensified, prompting a cautious stance until the net economic effects of government policy changes become clearer [1] - Monetary Policy - The latest meeting minutes indicate that participants agree on the appropriateness of waiting for clearer inflation and economic activity forecasts, given the solid economic growth and labor market conditions [1] - There is a consensus among participants that the current monetary policy is moderately tight, allowing for a period of stability in interest rates [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Due to concerns about the out - of - control of the US uncompensated public debt caused by the expansion of Trump's second - term tax cuts, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, and the unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 773.86 yuan/g, with a change of - 1.86 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 61,062, and the open interest was 216,312. The inventory was 17,247 (in ten - gram units). The basis (spot - futures) was - 1.25 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 8,239 yuan/kg, with a change of - 5 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 359,242, and the open interest was 3,454,112. The inventory was 957,380 (in ten - gram units). The basis (spot - futures) was - 41 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,357.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 62.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,139, and the open interest was 143,847. The inventory was 38,793,530.21 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 33.64 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.46 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 65,592, and the open interest was 111,871. The inventory was 501,750,232.28 (in troy ounces) [1]. 2. Price Ratios - The price ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 93.43, with a change of - 0.53 compared to the previous day. The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 99.81, with a change of 0.50. The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 100.35, with a change of 0.65 [1]. 3. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 452.80 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 65.03 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 61.76 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77,790 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,554.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,004 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 706.50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Interest Rates**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.51%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.20%, and the US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.33% [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.9388, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1833, and the euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.1269 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,348.3717, the S&P 500 was 5,802.82, the UK FTSE 100 was 8,739.26, the French CAC40 was 7,734.40, the German DAX was 23,629.58, the Nikkei 225 was 36,985.87, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2,621.36 [1]. 4. Important Information - **Trade Negotiations**: After Trump postponed a 50% tariff, the EU planned to "quickly advance" the EU - US trade negotiations. Japan aimed to get tariff concessions from the US by its 2.00 project and shipbuilding technology, striving to reach an agreement by mid - June [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: A Fed voter next year said the easing pause might be longer. The ECB President Lagarde thought the euro could be an alternative to the US dollar. The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the CBO predicted the Treasury funds might run out between August and October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The European Central Bank might cut interest rates in June and twice more by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in June. The Bank of Japan might raise interest rates around July [1].

·中国和印尼两国央行签署谅解备忘录 ·中国人民银行、外汇局完善境内企业境外直接上市资金管理统一境内企业赴境外上市本外币管理政策 ·美联储官员呼吁保持耐心：在决策前应评估更多数据 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比称，尽管短期内降息的门槛"略高"，但在未来10到16个月内降息仍然是可能 的；对于特朗普针对欧盟和苹果公司最新的关税威胁，古尔斯比表示，如此高的关税"对供应链来说将 非常可怕"。 ·欧洲央行警告美国资产疑虑引发连锁反应 ·日本央行理事称没有必要采取干预债市 ·澳洲联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.85% ·印尼央行年内第二次降息 【全球央行动态】 ·中国人民银行行长潘功胜与印度尼西亚银行行长佩里·瓦吉约25日签署了《中国人民银行和印度尼西亚 银行关于建立促进双边交易本币结算合作框架的谅解备忘录》。本次谅解备忘录将双方本币结算合作范 围从经常账户和直接投资扩展至包括资本和金融账户的全部交易，在两国法律法规允许的范围内促进支 付联结，进一步推动本币在双边交易和投资中的使用。 ·中国人民银行、国家外汇局起草《关于境内企业境外上市资金管理有关问题的通知（征求意见 稿）》。其中提出，境外上市募集资金、减持或转让股份等所得可 ...

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，美国贸易和移民政策的重大转变正在给美联储官员在9月前调整 利率制造不确定性。当前特朗普政府正与多国政府进行关税谈判。 最高法院上周裁定，美联储不受特朗普试图解雇独立联邦机构高官的影响。 尽管裁决允许特朗普撤换其他两家机构的官员，但法院明确表示该决定不适用于美联储，称美联储 是"结构独特、半私人的实体"。这一裁决似乎保护了主席鲍威尔免遭直接解职，但尚不清楚能否阻止特 朗普撤销其主席职务。 特朗普上月释放矛盾信号：4月17日在社交媒体发文称"迫不及待要炒掉鲍威尔"，数日后又对记者表示 无意撤换他。 卡什卡利周一指出，美国经济最大风险来自贸易壁垒和移民政策等重大新政的悬而未决。"我希望相关 谈判能更快取得进展，以提供政策确定性。" 卡什卡利坦言，"这种不确定性正在拖累经济活动，并给我们带来决策挑战，因为我们无法确定事态最 终走向，也就难以明确货币政策路径"。 过去一周，多名美联储政策制定者暗示，在关税政策及其经济影响明朗化之前，他们对利率调整的观望 态度可能持续数月。 特朗普上周晚些时候加剧了不确定性——他先是威胁对欧盟进口商品加征50%关税，随后将实施日期推 迟至7月9日。他还警 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the re-evaluation of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The US dollar index has experienced a decline due to a downgrade in the US sovereign rating by Moody's, with all three major rating agencies rating US debt below AAA [1] - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1%, while short-term rates remain stable, indicating rising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The derivatives market is seeing a record high of bearish sentiment towards US assets [1] Trade and Capital Flows - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased activity in corporate foreign exchange transactions [1] - The merchandise trade surplus has narrowed, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in cross-border capital, indicating resilient exports but facing uncertainties [1] - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds is improving, as evidenced by a rebound in the custody volume of RMB bonds [1] Economic Indicators - Retail sales and industrial value-added output in April showed year-on-year growth, while the May LPR cut signals support for the RMB [1] - The preliminary May PMI in the US exceeded expectations, but the downgrade by Moody's has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Currency Outlook - The dollar is expected to maintain a weak position against the RMB in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The euro may be in a favorable position due to the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets amid US tariff policies [1] - The Japanese yen has shown resilience despite weak fundamentals, influenced by the downgrade of the dollar rating [1] Strategic Considerations - The focus is on the potential for a widening interest rate differential between the US and China due to fiscal risks and policy uncertainties [1] - Attention is also directed towards the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations, which could impact the euro's position [1]

| 贵金属日评20250523: 特朗普新减税法案闯过众议院,美国5月非官方PMI均超预期 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-16 | 收盘价 | 778. 78 | 780. 10 | 751.80 | 1.32 | 28. 30 | | | | | | | | 成交重 | 307544. 00 | 396470.00 | 481303.00 | -88, 926. 00 | -173,759.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 224053.00 | 12, 572. 00 | 222494.00 | 211481.00 | 1,559.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 17238.00 | 9.00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [4] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on economic fact verification, with attention to sensitive commodities like crude oil, shipping indices, and gold; long - term focus on stagflation allocation [1][3] - The risk of US tariff escalation is rising, which impacts global trade and inflation expectations [2] - Commodities should focus on the transmission of fundamentals, and beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments for industrial products [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [1] - On May 19, the People's Bank of China stated that it would implement and transmit a package of monetary and financial policy measures. On May 20, the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) were lowered to 3% and 3.5% respectively. On May 23, the central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation [1] - From May 9 - 12, Vice - Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with both sides promising to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [1] - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the adjustment of China's counter - tariff measures against the US, stating that it would adjust accordingly due to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China and expressing an open attitude towards the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] US Tariff Situation - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction approach. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and there may be export caps on specific products [2] - On May 17, US Treasury Secretary Besent warned that if countries do not negotiate "sincerely" before the tariff suspension period expires at the beginning of July and fail to reach a trade agreement, tariff rates will return to the "liberation day" level [2] - Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akazawa Ryo will visit the US from May 23 - 25 for trade negotiations. Japan and the US Treasury Secretaries agree that exchange rates should be determined by the market [2] - India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement, expected to reach a temporary agreement before early July. South Korea says its foreign exchange negotiations with the US are ongoing and no decision has been made [2] - The US Department of Commerce issued guidelines to strengthen export controls on China's AI - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that implementing US measures would be illegal [2] - On May 13, the US April CPI data was lower than expected, indicating further alleviation of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end [2] - On May 15, the Fed Chairman said that the Fed is about to adjust the interest rate - setting framework, and the "era of long - term low interest rates" may have ended, putting pressure on short - term Fed rate - cut expectations [2] - Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 [2] - After the Trump tax bill barely passed the House of Representatives, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose by more than 2 basis points, reaching 5.123%, the highest intraday level since October 2023 [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades on the decline in demand and then on the rise in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals should beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments, while agricultural products have a higher probability of price increases due to tariffs [3] - In the energy sector, the price of crude oil has declined. The IEA monthly report lowered the oil demand forecast for this year. OPEC + confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June, and a large - scale production increase in July is under discussion. On May 22, Brent crude futures fell below $64 per barrel, down nearly 1.6% intraday [3] - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027, and stop signing new agreements and spot contracts by the end of 2025. The EU and the UK announced a new round of sanctions against Russia on the 20th, targeting Russia's energy construction and finance sectors, and also including Chinese and UAE companies in the sanctions list [3] - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU [3] Other Market Conditions - US stock index futures tumbled. The Nasdaq futures fell 0.27% intraday, the S&P 500 index futures fell 0.32%, and the Dow futures fell 0.45% [7] - The yield of Japanese long - term bonds continued to rise. The 40 - year yield rose 6 basis points to 3.675%, reaching the highest level since its issuance in 2007. The 10 - year yield rose 5 basis points to 1.565%, and the 20 - year yield rose 5.5 basis points to 2.595% [7] - The preliminary value of the eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5, all lower than expected [7]

日本央行审议委员野口旭：目前不应调整利率，暂时应密切关注经济发展情况。 ...

日本央行审议委员野口旭：在经济前景不明朗的情况下，日本央行不应调整利率。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to lower interest rates below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2% to prevent inflation from falling below 2% [1]