Lombard Odier表示，美国总统特朗普关税措施的"冲击"可能会促使日本央行在2025年维持利率不 变。"如果关税冲击消退，并且日本的贸易超过其在亚洲的出口竞争对手，"日本央行可能会在2026年上 半年加息，全球首席投资官Michael Strobaek在报告中写道。Lombard认为，汽车以外的大多数出口产品 被征收10%的关税是可实现的最佳结果。 ...

企业仍然对裁员持谨慎态度。 美国克利夫兰联储主席Hammack（2026年FOMC票委）：企业在不确定性中暂停投资。 现在考虑五月的利率调整还为时尚早。 美联储在必要时并不害怕迅速采取行动。 ...

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利周二表示，现在要确定美国总统特朗普的关税政策以及其对通胀和经济 的预期影响，进而判断短期借贷成本需要如何调整，还为时尚早。这一观点得到了他的同事们的广泛认 同，很可能会使美联储在两周后的利率设定会议上维持利率不变。 这位明尼阿波利斯联储主席说，他将密切关注劳动力市场数据，看看目前的不确定性是否有迹象导致企 业缩减规模并裁员。他说，目前还没有迹象表明大规模裁员。 当被问及特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求降息的问题时，卡什卡利表示，货币政策的独立性是美国 经济成功的"基石"。他反驳了特朗普及其政府其他官员的说法，即美联储是出于政治原因而做出政策决 定。 卡什卡利指出，在民主党总统奥巴马的第二个任期以及特朗普的第一个任期内，他支持较为宽松的货币 政策；在拜登任期内，他变得较为鹰派；而现在在政策立场上 "可能处于中间派"。 "我从鸽派转变为鹰派，再转变为温和派，这是因为政治原因吗？不是，这是因为经济环境在变化，数 据也在变化。"他说。 卡什卡利在华盛顿举行的美国商会全球峰会上表示："现在就判断利率的走势将会如何还为时过早。" 他表示，虽然仅关税本身不太可能让通胀再次加速，这种说法是"合乎逻 ...

她指出，如果通胀最终确实下降，"我们确实需要逐步降低利率，就像我们在SEP中所说的那样，以确保不会对经济造成过 度紧缩"。 【导读】美联储戴利表示：利率将维持不变，但今年仍可能降息。 大家周末好，简单看一则关于美联储的消息。 旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利表示，由于通胀风险上升，美联储可能需要比预期更长时间维持利率不变，但今年仍可 能降息。 戴利在加州大学伯克利分校的一次活动中表示："与一年前相比，通胀的风险更高了，因此我们可能需要比原先设想的更长 时间维持紧缩政策。但这并不意味着要永远紧缩，因为最终通胀正在回落。" 戴利表示，她仍然认可美联储3月《经济预测摘要》（SEP）中的中位预期，即今年将降息两次、每次25个基点。 不过，戴利也强调，目前没有必要急于采取行动。 她说："到目前为止，我们还没有听到太多关于裁员的消息，也没有太多企业说要缩减规模、准备过冬。" 美联储的"观望"立场惹怒了特朗普，一位顾问周五表示，政府正在研究解除鲍威尔职务的可行性。 戴利指出，如果通胀下降速度快于预期，或者劳动力市场出现疲软，美联储今年降息次数可能会超过两次。 她表示，在通胀仅缓慢回落的情况下，需要继续维持紧缩的货币政策立场 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Banner Corporation reported a net profit available to common shareholders of $45.1 million or $1.3 per diluted share for Q1 2025, compared to $1.09 per share for Q1 2024 and $1.34 per share for Q4 2024 [8][20] - Core earnings for Q1 2025 were $59 million, up from $53 million in Q1 2024, with revenue from core operations increasing to $160 million from $150 million year-over-year [9][10] - The return on average assets was 1.15% for Q1 2025, reflecting strong core deposit base and expense control [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loans increased by $84 million in the quarter, with a year-over-year growth of 5%, driven primarily by construction and development loans [16][22] - Core deposits represented 89% of total deposits, with a 3% increase year-over-year [10][22] - Delinquent loans increased to 0.63% of total loans, up from 0.36% a year ago, indicating a higher interest rate environment's impact [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agricultural loan portfolio remains a concern due to tariff implications, with agriculture representing 3% of the loan book [19][37] - The consumer mortgage portfolio saw a modest increase of $9 million, while home equity lines of credit declined by $4 million [18] - The commercial and small business loan totals declined by $16 million quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to paydowns on larger commercial lines of credit [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on a super community bank strategy, emphasizing client relationships and core funding [10] - Banner Corporation aims to maintain a moderate risk profile while navigating current market volatility [8] - The company has received multiple accolades, including being named one of America's Best Banks and one of the most trustworthy companies [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the economic environment, anticipating a slowdown due to tariffs and other uncertainties [19][91] - The company plans to continue robust portfolio reviews and maintain close contact with borrowers to understand long-term implications [19] - Management remains optimistic about market share opportunities despite economic challenges [91] Other Important Information - The company announced a core dividend of $0.48 per common share, reflecting a 13% increase in tangible common equity per share year-over-year [10] - The reserve for credit losses provides coverage of 1.38% of total loans, indicating a strong capital position [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin expectations and components - Management indicated that funding costs were flat throughout the quarter, with expectations for net interest margin expansion if the Fed maintains rates [32] Question: Agricultural sector concerns - Management acknowledged ongoing caution regarding the agricultural sector due to tariff implications and rising input costs [34][35] Question: Pipeline and client demand - Management noted that pipelines continue to grow despite uncertainty, with clients eager to proceed once clarity is achieved [48] Question: Competitive dynamics and growth opportunities - Management highlighted that growth in California is driven by new talent and successful client acquisition [107] Question: Capital plans and stock buyback - Management confirmed a focus on maintaining the core dividend and is considering options for capital deployment, including potential stock buybacks [66][68]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey raised the one-week repo rate from 42.5% to 46%, contrary to market expectations of maintaining the rate unchanged [1] Group 1 - The increase in the repo rate indicates a tightening of monetary policy aimed at combating inflation [1] - The decision reflects the central bank's commitment to stabilizing the Turkish lira and addressing economic challenges [1] - Market reactions may include adjustments in investment strategies and currency valuations following the rate hike [1]

澳洲联储称，尚无法确定下次 利率调整的时机。 ...

今天中美两边的央行都做出了不降息的决定，美元利率维持在4.25-4.5%不变，人民币LPR也没有变化， 一年期3.1%，五年期3.6%，这个五年期就是老百姓房贷挂钩的利率，不过现在通常有折扣，实际执行 在3.3%左右。 这里说明一下两边同一天宣布利率是巧合，中国这边的LPR固定每个月20日更新，美国那边是每个季度 公布一次，今年的时间分别是3月20日、6月19日、9月18日、12月11日，所以纯属巧合。 美联储随后发布了利率点阵图， 横轴是时间，竖轴是利率，图上的每一个蓝点是美联储19名委员对 不同历史时期的利率投票。 2025年大部分委员把利率投到了3.9%，这就意味着今年大概率还有2次降息；至于2026年预期再降50个 基点，2027年以后的远期利率预期为3%，暂时是这样，如果非农就业和失业率等数据有波动的话，下 个季度会改的。 至于咱们这边的LPR没有下降，主要是因为银行整体的息差很低，四季度只有1.52%，低于1.8%的警戒 水平并刷新史低，再加上高层判断经济和房市的情况尚可，就先不降了。 如果后面房市数据恶化的 话，今年可能还会再降一次LPR。 …… 今天a股成交1.44万亿，量能继续小幅萎缩，市场 ...

Synchrony Financial (SYF) Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Synchrony Financial (SYF) - **Date of Conference**: February 10, 2025 - **Participants**: Brian Wenzel (CFO), Erika Penala (Analyst) Key Points Industry and Economic Environment - The company navigated a challenging macroeconomic environment in 2024, focusing on curtailing net credit losses and maintaining margins [3][4] - The first half of 2025 is expected to be similar to the end of 2024, with muted progress against inflation and a pessimistic outlook on Federal Reserve rate actions [5][6] Financial Performance and Credit Metrics - The delinquency rate is reported at 4.7%, which is 19 basis points better than historical seasonality [14][15] - The charge-off rate stands at 6.2%, with expectations to outperform seasonal trends in the first quarter of 2025 [16] - The company anticipates a net charge-off rate between 5.8% and 6.1% for the full year [16] Consumer Behavior and Confidence - Consumer confidence is expected to be shaky in the first half of 2025, with consumers remaining cautious in their spending due to affordability issues [19][20] - Despite a strong purchase volume growth in 2024, the company acknowledges that consumer confidence may not align with spending patterns [19] Credit Actions and Strategy - Credit actions were initiated in mid-2023 and early 2024, focusing on the ability to pay and debt consolidation loans [22][23] - The company aims to protect its portfolio and prevent delinquency acceleration through these credit actions [24] Future Growth and Credit Box Strategy - The company is currently in a restrictive credit position but may consider loosening restrictions in the second half of 2025 if delinquency performance continues to improve [26][30] - Pro-growth credit actions may include credit line increases and upgrades from private label to dual cards [30] Regulatory Environment and Late Fees - The company is closely monitoring the regulatory landscape, particularly regarding the CFPB and potential changes to late fee rules [42][45] - There is uncertainty about the impact of regulatory changes on the company's operations and profitability [79][80] Partnership and Market Opportunities - The company is focused on maintaining strong partnerships and is disciplined in pricing during negotiations [59][60] - There is an increase in market activity and opportunities for new partnerships, with a focus on long-term sustainability [58][61] Funding Strategy and Digital Banking - The company does not plan to lead in digital banking pricing but aims to remain competitive while maintaining a focus on product quality [62][68] - The funding strategy includes a cautious approach to deposit growth and liquidity management [66][67] Capital Management and Share Buybacks - The company is preparing for its first stress capital buffer next year and is focused on optimizing capital towards an 11% CET1 [81][84] - Share buybacks are considered a tool for managing capital in response to market conditions [82] Conclusion - Overall, Synchrony Financial expresses a positive outlook for 2025, emphasizing disciplined growth, strong credit metrics, and a focus on consumer behavior amidst a challenging economic backdrop [7][18]