Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Precious Metals Data Daily" released by ITG Guomao Futures on September 25, 2025 [4][5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices may fluctuate at high levels, but the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. The market continues to trade the expectation of two more interest rate cuts this year, and the possible government shutdown in the US at the end of the year support precious metal prices. However, the rebound of the US dollar index and the improvement of trade relations put some pressure on precious metal prices. As the National Day holiday approaches, investors are advised to hold light positions to avoid risks [5] - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks will likely push up the medium - to - long - term price center of gold [5] Group 4: Price and Spread Data 1. Spot and Futures Price Tracking - On September 24, 2025, compared with September 23, 2025, London gold spot price rose 0.5% to $3772.46 per ounce, London silver spot price rose 0.8% to $44.08 per ounce. COMEX gold price rose 0.5% to $3805.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver price rose 0.5% to $44.35 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase, with a rise of about 0.5% - 0.6% [5] 2. Spread and Ratio Tracking - From September 23 to September 24, 2025, the spread between gold TD and SHFE active price changed from - 2.02 yuan/gram to - 0.9 yuan/gram, a change of - 55.4%; the spread between silver TD and SHFE active price changed from - 27 yuan/kg to - 24 yuan/kg, a change of - 11.1%. The spread between domestic and foreign gold (TD - London) changed from - 7.29 yuan/gram to - 6.93 yuan/gram, a change of - 4.9%; the spread between domestic and foreign silver (TD - London) changed from - 895 yuan/kg to - 931 yuan/kg, a change of 3.9%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 82.68, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 85.82, with little change [5] Group 5: Position and Inventory Data 1. Position Data - As of September 23, 2025, compared with September 22, 2025, the position of gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 1000.57 tons, and the position of silver ETF - SLV increased 0.65% to 15469.12379 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 0.59% to 326778 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased 4.38% to 60368 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased 1.14% to 71623 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased 8.49% to 20085 contracts [5] 2. Inventory Data - On September 24, 2025, compared with September 23, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased 2.59% to 60543 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased 1.11% to 1161799 kg. COMEX gold inventory increased 0.16% to 39745191 troy ounces on September 23, 2025, compared with September 22, 2025, and COMEX silver inventory increased 0.45% to 526748211 troy ounces [5] Group 6: Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On September 24, 2025, compared with September 23, 2025, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate rose 0.03% to 7.11. The US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.24, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.22% to 3.53%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.72% to 4.12%. The VIX index rose 3.35% to 16.64, the S&P 500 index fell 0.55% to 6656.92, and NYMEX crude oil rose 2.10% to $63.65 [5] Group 7: Market Review - On September 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.03% to 860 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.83% to 10397 yuan/kg [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting, the monetary policy statements of key Fed figures remain dovish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals market. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 843 - 870 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.65% to 853.06 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.52% to 10349.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.06% to 3770.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver declined 0.20% to 44.11 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US Dollar Index was 97.83 [2] - The US real - estate data released last night was strong, putting short - term pressure on gold and silver prices. However, key Fed officials' dovish statements suggest that the Fed is still on the path to a new round of easing [2] - The annualized value of new home sales in the US in August was 800,000 units, significantly higher than the expected 650,000 units and the previous value of 664,000 units [2] - Fed Chair Powell said the current interest rate stance is still slightly tight. He also mentioned that officials will review growth, employment, and inflation data and decide if policy adjustments are needed. Regarding the labor market, he thought the jobs created this summer were insufficient to meet the demand of job - seekers [2] - Fed Governor Bowman expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times in 2025. Given the weakened labor market, she believes the Fed will adjust policies more quickly and with larger magnitudes [2] 3.2 Strategy - After the September interest rate cut, with dovish statements from key Fed figures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 843 - 870 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Market Data - For gold: Au(T + D) closed at 856.27 yuan/gram, up 0.79%; London Gold closed at 3761.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.59%; SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 996.85 tons, down 0.37% [4] - For silver: Ag(T + D) closed at 10349.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.72%; London Silver closed at 43.88 dollars/ounce, down 1.02%; SLV Silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15469.12 tons [4] - Other market indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.16%; the US Dollar Index rose 0.65% to 97.8657; major US stock indexes such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declined [4] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) was 3768.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.75%; trading volume was 232,500 lots, down 18.57%; open interest was 516,200 lots, up 1.29%; inventory was 1238 tons, up 0.16% [7] - Silver: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) was 44.12 dollars/ounce, down 0.34%; open interest was 163,000 lots, up 3.99%; inventory was 16396 tons, up 0.08% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions indicate a strong performance in precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On September 24, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 860.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.03% with a trading volume of 285,621 lots and an open interest of 274,765 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 853.15 CNY per gram, showing a discount of 6.85 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the policy interest rate remains slightly restrictive, allowing the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments [1]. - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts, with an 89.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 75.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The preliminary September PMI for the U.S. services sector was reported at 53.9, slightly below expectations, while the manufacturing PMI was at 52, also below prior values [1]. - The latest PMI data suggests that the U.S. economy shows some resilience, which may alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown [3]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts interpret Powell's remarks as potentially opening the door for further rate cuts, maintaining high expectations for U.S. liquidity easing [3]. - Despite the risks of stagflation and geopolitical conflicts, the long-term value of precious metals remains strong, with a continued inclination towards gold in global asset allocation [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rates remain restrictive, and the future rate - cut path needs to balance employment and inflation. The market expects the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 to decrease from 3 to 2, which may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Gold Market - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 855.44, with a change of 8.94 compared to the previous day and 20.36 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 230,847, and the open interest was 260,256. The inventory was 59,013 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 830.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 53,156 and an open interest of 214,762. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 3.52, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 4.83 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 39,682,786.18 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,783.80 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 23.77, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 464.57 [1] Silver Market - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 1,221,428 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: The closing price was 10,275 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 606,548 and an open interest of 5,348. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 43, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 74 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 44.27 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 75,969 and an open interest of 134,910. The inventory was 526,748,211.09 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 44.33 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 15,469.12, and the PSLV Silver ETF holding was 6,132.75 [1] Other Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was - 9.90 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 67.17 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 62.34 dollars/barrel [1] - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 79,920 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,993.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,155 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 802.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR was 1.43 and 1.67. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was - 0.03, and the TIPS yield was 1.78 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.2351, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1013, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3877 [1] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,821.8327, the S&P 500 was 6,656.92, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,223.32, the French CAC40 was 7,872.02, the German DAX was 23,611.33, the Nikkei 225 was 45,493.66, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,407.31 [1] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to take partial profits on high - cost long positions at high prices and wait for price pull - backs to establish long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 880 - 930. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 [1]

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月24日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格整体呈现冲高回落走势，反映为上涨动能的减弱。盘中伦敦金最高上摸3791附近，伦敦银亦 接近44.5。随着国内国庆假期临近，以及前期贵金属涨幅较大，建议前多减仓过节，节中将公布重磅美非农 与ISM PMI数据。周边美指与1Y美债收益率震荡，10Y美债收益率则回落，比特币延续弱势，原油回升一定 程度增加短期通胀压力并抑制近端货币政策降息预期与贵金属价格。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3796.9 美元/盎司，+0.58%；美白银2512合约收报于44.265美元/盎司，+0.12%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约 收 855.44元/克，+1.%；SHFE白银2512合约收10349元/千克，+1.78%。消息面，周三凌晨美联储主席鲍威尔 讲话，指出美股估值偏高，并再次强调当前经济面临通胀上行与就业市场疲软的双重压力，但对10月是否降 息仍未作出明确表态。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储10月维持利率不变概率7%，降息25个基点的概率为93 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a historic high of over $3,800, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 23, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, up $15.7 from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of $3,815.7 and an intraday high of $3,824.6 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks did not provide a clear path for interest rate cuts, but the market interpreted them as supportive of further easing, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Christopher Wood, global equity strategist at Jefferies, believes that despite strong gold performance year-to-date, there is still more upside potential in the coming months [2] - Independent analyst Ross Norman indicated that the dovish views of the new Federal Reserve governor, Milan, will likely intensify expectations for further rate cuts, which is a positive factor for gold prices [2] Group 3 - The strong rise in gold prices has also positively impacted the performance of other precious metals [3] - Although December silver futures closed slightly down by $0.05 at $44.265 per ounce, it reached a new high of $44.77, the highest since May 2011, during intraday trading [3] - Platinum and palladium prices in the London market also saw significant increases of over 4% on the same day [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a historic high of over $3,800, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 23, 2023, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, up $15.7 from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of $3,815.7 and an intraday high of $3,824.6 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks did not provide a clear path for interest rate cuts, but the market interpreted them as supportive of further easing, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Christopher Wood, Jefferies' global equity strategy head, believes that despite strong gold performance year-to-date, there is still more upside potential in the coming months [2] - Independent analyst Ross Norman indicated that the dovish views of the new Federal Reserve governor, Milan, will likely intensify expectations for further rate cuts, which is a positive factor for gold prices [2] Group 3 - The strong rise in gold prices has also positively impacted the performance of other precious metals [3] - Although December silver futures closed slightly down at $44.265 per ounce, it reached a new high of $44.77, the highest since May 2011, during intraday trading [3] - Platinum and palladium prices in the London market also surged over 4% on the same day [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative silver bars by Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co., Ltd. marks the continuation of a series of zodiac-themed silver products, reflecting both cultural significance and investment potential in the precious metals market [1][6]. Group 1: Product Details - The 2026 Year of the Horse silver bars are produced by Shenzhen Guobao Mint Co., Ltd. and distributed by Shanghai Gold Investment Co., Ltd. They are available in six specifications: 1000g, 500g, 200g, 100g, 50g, and 15g, with respective maximum issuance limits of 600, 1500, 3000, 19500, 36000, and 20000 [3]. - The design features a "Galloping Horse" motif on the front, symbolizing ambition and progress, while the reverse showcases a seal with the character for "Horse" surrounded by vine patterns, representing continuity and vitality [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Consumer Response - The release of the silver bars comes amid a rising interest in precious metals, serving as a cultural gift and an asset optimization choice for families. The initial sales saw a significant number of consumers pre-ordering at the main store [6]. - The launch initiates a new wave of "New Year craze" for the company, which plans to introduce additional zodiac-themed products, including gold bars and commemorative medals, to cater to diverse consumer needs and enhance its brand image [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent movements in gold and silver futures indicate a strong upward trend, driven by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, which has increased market risk appetite [3]. Group 1: Gold Futures Performance - On September 23, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 852.67 CNY per gram, reflecting a 1.66% increase from the previous day [1]. - The opening price for the Shanghai gold futures was 847.50 CNY per gram, with a daily high of 855.62 CNY and a low of 845.04 CNY [1]. Group 2: Macro News - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for significant interest rate cuts, while other officials express caution regarding further easing [2]. - The People's Bank of China indicates that its monetary policy adjustments will primarily depend on domestic factors, suggesting independence from the Fed's actions [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - On September 22, gold futures rose by 2.01% to 846.5 CNY per gram, while silver futures surged by 3.81% to 10,317 CNY per kilogram [3]. - The recent increase in precious metals is attributed to the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut, marking the beginning of a new easing cycle and boosting market risk appetite [3]. - Despite a brief pullback in the precious metals market, strong buying demand has been evident, with both gold and silver futures reaching historical highs [3]. - The outlook suggests that if market risk appetite remains high, silver is expected to outperform gold, with mid-term target prices set at 4,000 USD for COMEX gold and 50 USD for COMEX silver [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-23 重点资讯： 1）美国两党的短期支出议案均未能在参议院闯关成功，让国会避免 政府关门的努力陷入僵局。现有的法案仅支持联邦政府运转到本月 底。美国总统特朗普发出警告，称联邦政府可能因为两党之间的僵局 而关门。 2）美国总统特朗普签署行政令，大幅改革H-1B签证项目，要求申请 人缴纳10万美元费用，否则不得入境。这一新规于美东时间9月21日 凌晨00:01生效。律师建议已经拿到H-1B签证的申请者在9月21日之前 回到美国，在美国境内的H-1B签证持有者近期尽量不要随便进出美 国。 特朗普宣布推出名为"特朗普金卡"的签证计划，向全球富人 出售美国居住权，个人申请者最高支付500万美元，可最长停留美国 270天，无需为美国境外收入纳税，企业可无限量为员工个人办理金 卡。特朗普表示，科技高管们会对金卡项目"非常满意"，因为这将 允许他们引入更多员工。美国商务部长卢特尼克预计，该签证计划将 为美国政府筹集超过1000亿美元。 3）特朗普周二将与阿拉伯国家领导人会晤，商讨加沙停火。 价格逻辑： 周一贵金属再度冲高，上周靴子落地 ...